A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

For Abreu to be the best bat in the outfield he will have to hit better than .433 OPS. Vs. LHP

As long as we have Ref, who kills lefties, we are all set in RF.

[Hugh2]

As long as we have Ref, who kills lefties, we are all set in RF.

 

Exactly, if Abreu ever Wilyer ever learns to hit lefties we have a stud, if not, a Refsnyder/Abreu platoon is like having an outfielder batting AVG/OBP/SLG .301/.375/.572 good for a .947 OPS with 17 HR. with average to better defense. That's elite.

[mvp 78]

Exactly, if Abreu ever Wilyer ever learns to hit lefties we have a stud, if not, a Refsnyder/Abreu platoon is like having an outfielder batting AVG/OBP/SLG .301/.375/.572 good for a .947 OPS with 17 HR. with average to better defense. That's elite.

 

His splits weren't terrible until he hit the upper minors. Not sure if he'll be able to figure it out, but it would help this team out as they are very LHB heavy out there. Duran has hit LHP a little bit better this year, but Abreu has been rough.

[mvp 78]

As long as we have Ref, who kills lefties, we are all set in RF.

 

Roman Anthony doesn't have any split concerns.

[Hugh2]

His splits weren't terrible until he hit the upper minors. Not sure if he'll be able to figure it out, but it would help this team out as they are very LHB heavy out there. Duran has hit LHP a little bit better this year, but Abreu has been rough.

 

 

That's also a small sample size, 27 ab's in 2018, 31 ab's in 2019 and 73 at bats in 2021 in high A. The fact he got worse as the competition is telling, but not a nail in the coffin either. After seeing Durans progression, I have convinced myself anything can happen.

[Bellhorn04]

Abreu hitting a bomb off a lefty yesterday was certainly nice to see.

 

Cora said he got a little hunch-y there, had a good feeling about the AB and decided to let Abreu face the lefty.

[mvp 78]

That's also a small sample size, 27 ab's in 2018, 31 ab's in 2019 and 73 at bats in 2021 in high A. The fact he got worse as the competition is telling, but not a nail in the coffin either. After seeing Durans progression, I have convinced myself anything can happen.

 

And in 2022 he had a 775 OPS vs LHP. Even his 739 in 2023 isn't awful in the way some platoon guys show in the minors. Like I said, maybe he'll be able to figure it out, but the competition makes that adjustment that much harder at MLB, especially if you're riding the bench and not working through it.

[Hugh2]

And in 2022 he had a 775 OPS vs LHP. Even his 739 in 2023 isn't awful in the way some platoon guys show in the minors. Like I said, maybe he'll be able to figure it out, but the competition makes that adjustment that much harder at MLB, especially if you're riding the bench and not working through it.

 

That’s a fair point, and how can you let him work on it when someone like Ref is just so good against lefty’s????

 

Makes you wonder if he is trade bait. We don’t know how any particular team values a certain player. But anyone who is convinced Abreu can adjust to hitting LHP probably sees a potential all star caliber player. Would make for a nice piece in a trade.

 

I’m not 100% convinced Anthony starts in Boston next year, nor am I convinced he won’t struggle for a while until he adjusts, so I’m not sold that this offseason is the time to do so

[mvp 78]

That’s a fair point, and how can you let him work on it when someone like Ref is just so good against lefty’s????

 

Makes you wonder if he is trade bait. We don’t know how any particular team values a certain player. But anyone who is convinced Abreu can adjust to hitting LHP probably sees a potential all star caliber player. Would make for a nice piece in a trade.

 

I’m not 100% convinced Anthony starts in Boston next year, nor am I convinced he won’t struggle for a while until he adjusts, so I’m not sold that this offseason is the time to do so

 

I could see them holding onto Abreu though 2025 and dealing him next offseason pending how things work out. He's still cheap so there's no worry on the payroll. They also haven't rushed Anthony to AAA, so it doesn't seem like they'll rush the big 3 to BOS either as much as we'd like them to.

[Maxbialystock]

Exactly, if Abreu ever Wilyer ever learns to hit lefties we have a stud, if not, a Refsnyder/Abreu platoon is like having an outfielder batting AVG/OBP/SLG .301/.375/.572 good for a .947 OPS with 17 HR. with average to better defense. That's elite.

 

Ref's DWAR, -0.7, is tied with Smith for worst on the team. Abreu's is +0.3. O'Neill also plays RF and his is -0.4.

 

That said, it's the bats that count with the Sox, even @ SS and in CF. Except for Rafaela, who is invaluable on defense with an OPS of .705. But he also is 2d on the Sox in rbi's with 57.

[Hugh2]

Ref's DWAR, -0.7, is tied with Smith for worst on the team. Abreu's is +0.3. O'Neill also plays RF and his is -0.4.

 

That said, it's the bats that count with the Sox, even @ SS and in CF. Except for Rafaela, who is invaluable on defense with an OPS of .705. But he also is 2d on the Sox in rbi's with 57.

 

 

And Abreu plays the field more with plus D in right, Ref isn't as bad in left field as he is in right. That platoon would still round out to be plus D.

[Hugh2]

I could see them holding onto Abreu though 2025 and dealing him next offseason pending how things work out. He's still cheap so there's no worry on the payroll. They also haven't rushed Anthony to AAA, so it doesn't seem like they'll rush the big 3 to BOS either as much as we'd like them to.

 

This is pretty much the way I see it as well.

[notin]

I could see them holding onto Abreu though 2025 and dealing him next offseason pending how things work out. He's still cheap so there's no worry on the payroll. They also haven't rushed Anthony to AAA, so it doesn't seem like they'll rush the big 3 to BOS either as much as we'd like them to.

 

I only think they hold him if Anthony starts 2025 in Worcester, which is certainly possible. Otherwise on the bench he becomes a fairly valuable asset whose control is slipping away day by day….

[mvp 78]

I only think they hold him if Anthony starts 2025 in Worcester, which is certainly possible. Otherwise on the bench he becomes a fairly valuable asset whose control is slipping away day by day….

 

It's 8/5 and Anthony is still in AA. Seems likely he'll be in WOO in April.

[Hugh2]

It's 8/5 and Anthony is still in AA. Seems likely he'll be in WOO in April.

 

 

I also don't think the talent level in AAA is what it used to be, I suspect he won't spend much time in AAA when he gets there.

[moonslav59]

And Abreu plays the field more with plus D in right, Ref isn't as bad in left field as he is in right. That platoon would still round out to be plus D.

 

I doubt we ever platoon Rafaela or plan on him playing much SS, going forward, but this could be one way we handle 2025:

 

v LHP

LF: Ref R

CF: Duran L

RF: Rafaela R

 

v RHP

LF: Abreu L

CF: Duran L

RF: Anthony L

(Rafaela at SS or 2B vs some or most RHPs, of mostly a platoon?)

 

[Larry Cook]

I doubt we ever platoon Rafaela or plan on him playing much SS, going forward, but this could be one way we handle 2025:

 

v LHP

LF: Ref R

CF: Duran L

RF: Rafaela R

 

v RHP

LF: Abreu L

CF: Duran L

RF: Anthony L

(Rafaela at SS or 2B vs some or most RHPs, of mostly a platoon?)

 

 

Rafeala has to play center field full time. Dude is amazing

[moonslav59]

Rafeala has to play center field full time. Dude is amazing

 

Agreed.

 

It's hard to play Duran, Anthony and have an Abreu-Ref platoon, while playing Rafaela in CF FT.

 

I keep coming back to the idea of a trade of Anthony or Abreu.

[Duran Is The Man]

Rafeala has to play center field full time. Dude is amazing

 

amazing catch tonite.

[Hugh2]

I doubt we ever platoon Rafaela or plan on him playing much SS, going forward, but this could be one way we handle 2025:

 

v LHP

LF: Ref R

CF: Duran L

RF: Rafaela R

 

v RHP

LF: Abreu L

CF: Duran L

RF: Anthony L

(Rafaela at SS or 2B vs some or most RHPs, of mostly a platoon?)

 

 

Are you sitting Anthony vs. LHP???

[moonslav59]

Are you sitting Anthony vs. LHP???

 

Somebody sits, unless Rafaela plays SS (bad idea as a pre-season plan.)

 

My point has been about the obvious overload we will have in the OF, next year, even with not replacing O'Neill!

 

No way, I sit Ref vs LHPs. He is a top 25 batter vs lefties in all of MLB over the last 3 seasons, combined, and he doesn't seem to be slowing down.

 

Duran needs to play FT.

 

I believe Rafaela should be our FT CF'er.

 

Abreu needs to play vs every RHB.

 

How Anthony fits in is an issue.

 

We might see Campbell (RHB) and Jh Garcia, sooner than we think, as well.

[mvp 78]

I doubt we ever platoon Rafaela or plan on him playing much SS, going forward, but this could be one way we handle 2025:

 

v LHP

LF: Ref R

CF: Duran L

RF: Rafaela R

 

v RHP

LF: Abreu L

CF: Duran L

RF: Anthony L

(Rafaela at SS or 2B vs some or most RHPs, of mostly a platoon?)

 

 

If Ref is on the squad, he's playing DH vs LHP. Anthony doesn't have any current platoon issues so I don't see why you'd sit him very often.

[mvp 78]

I also don't think the talent level in AAA is what it used to be, I suspect he won't spend much time in AAA when he gets there.

 

Maybe, maybe not. However, I'd be surprised if they didn't treat all 3 guys as super two at the very least.

[mvp 78]

Somebody sits, unless Rafaela plays SS (bad idea as a pre-season plan.)

 

My point has been about the obvious overload we will have in the OF, next year, even with not replacing O'Neill!

 

No way, I sit Ref vs LHPs. He is a top 25 batter vs lefties in all of MLB over the last 3 seasons, combined, and he doesn't seem to be slowing down.

 

Duran needs to play FT.

 

I believe Rafaela should be our FT CF'er.

 

Abreu needs to play vs every RHB.

 

How Anthony fits in is an issue.

 

We might see Campbell (RHB) and Jh Garcia, sooner than we think, as well.

 

Jhostynxon is still in GRE. We don't have to worry about him until 2026 at the earliest. Also, we have to stop projecting every prospect to work out.

 

They'll probably take a little longer with Campbell so that his defensive issues are worked out before he gets to BOS. Most likely want positional versatility and a UTIL role.

[notin]

Somebody sits, unless Rafaela plays SS (bad idea as a pre-season plan.)

 

My point has been about the obvious overload we will have in the OF, next year, even with not replacing O'Neill!

 

No way, I sit Ref vs LHPs. He is a top 25 batter vs lefties in all of MLB over the last 3 seasons, combined, and he doesn't seem to be slowing down.

 

Duran needs to play FT.

 

I believe Rafaela should be our FT CF'er.

 

Abreu needs to play vs every RHB.

 

How Anthony fits in is an issue.

 

We might see Campbell (RHB) and Jh Garcia, sooner than we think, as well.

 

Or you platoon Refsnyder at DH.

 

That is assuming Refsnyder even comes back. Someone else might offer him more money than Henry…

[Hugh2]

Maybe, maybe not. However, I'd be surprised if they didn't treat all 3 guys as super two at the very least.

 

If Anthony, Mayer, or Teel get 250 at bats in AAA I'd be very surprised. But yeah, a lot of things can happen for a lot of different reasons.

[Hugh2]

If Anthony is going to platoon and not play full time then he has more value right now as a trade chip for some pitching.

 

Something gives, They're not sitting Anthony unless something horrible goes wrong.

 

These things work themselves out, someone will regress, get hurt, move position, or just get traded.

[Bellhorn04]

If Anthony is going to platoon and not play full time then he has more value right now as a trade chip for some pitching.

 

Something gives, They're not sitting Anthony unless something horrible goes wrong.

 

These things work themselves out, someone will regress, get hurt, move position, or just get traded.

 

Yeah, not even Cora can figure out how to juggle 6 outfielders.

 

Seems like it would behoove them to bring back either O'Neill or Refsnyder to balance the L-R thing a bit.

[Hugh2]

Yeah, not even Cora can figure out how to juggle 6 outfielders.

 

Seems like it would behoove them to bring back either O'Neill or Refsnyder to balance the L-R thing a bit.

 

I feel like it might be a crime against humanity for suggesting this but......Duran was a second baseman by trade. That certainly wouldn't be my 1st, or even second choice. But if EVERYTHING broke right and you wanted to get all these guys in the lineup, then one has to assume there is a great than zero percent chance of that happening.

 

And yes..... .01 is still greater than 0

[mvp 78]

If Anthony, Mayer, or Teel get 250 at bats in AAA I'd be very surprised. But yeah, a lot of things can happen for a lot of different reasons.

 

One of them will get to 250 AB's I bet. One of them will not.

 

If I had to guess, Teel is promoted right away and other two stay down for a little while.