A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

nick.

 

Agreed, unless we go to a 6 man rotation.

 

Days off:

AUG 1 (after 6 games in a row)

AUG 8 (after 6 games in a row)

AUG 22 (after 13 straight)

SEP 5 (after 13 straight)

SEP 16 (after 10 straight)

SEP 26 (after 9 straight and before our last 3 of the season)

 

Having a 6 man rotation up to AUG 22 would mean all 6 starters get 2 days extra of rest, since we have days off after 6 days, twice in a row. Maybe there is not a need until after AUG 22. We could also spot start Pivetta to allow just Houck and Crawford an extra day of rest, every chance we can, but keep Bello, Paxton and Criswell on mostly normal rest.

[Old Red]

Paxton is owed about $2.5M for the remainder of 2024.

 

JH is really splurging on this one!

 

 

The Red Sox will pay the $1.4M remaining on Paxton’s contract.

[Randy Red Sox]

The Red Sox will pay the $1.4M remaining on Paxton’s contract.

 

Moon says the amount owing is 2.5

[Old Red]

Moon says the amount owing is 2.5

 

I’m going by what was said on the Dodgers site True Blue LA.

Edited July 26, 2024 by Old Red

[Maxbialystock]

The Dead Sox have only 1 win in the last 11 days and it's really pissing me off! Couldn't even squeeze like 5 wins or so during that time?!?!? WTH?

 

Sad. but the Sox have earned that label. I haven't given up, but share your frustration.

[moonslav59]

Moon says the amount owing is 2.5

 

So, LAD are paying about $1M of the 2.4-2.6 owed.

[Old Red]

Agreed, unless we go to a 6 man rotation.

 

Days off:

AUG 1 (after 6 games in a row)

AUG 8 (after 6 games in a row)

AUG 22 (after 13 straight)

SEP 5 (after 13 straight)

SEP 16 (after 10 straight)

SEP 26 (after 9 straight and before our last 3 of the season)

 

Having a 6 man rotation up to AUG 22 would mean all 6 starters get 2 days extra of rest, since we have days off after 6 days, twice in a row. Maybe there is not a need until after AUG 22. We could also spot start Pivetta to allow just Houck and Crawford an extra day of rest, every chance we can, but keep Bello, Paxton and Criswell on mostly normal rest.

 

Let’s bring back rich Hill, and go to a 7 man rotation.

[dgalehouse]

Let’s bring back rich Hill, and go to a 7 man rotation.

Eight would be great.

[Old Red]

Eight would be great.

 

Kluber must still be out there.

[notin]

Agreed, unless we go to a 6 man rotation.

 

Days off:

AUG 1 (after 6 games in a row)

AUG 8 (after 6 games in a row)

AUG 22 (after 13 straight)

SEP 5 (after 13 straight)

SEP 16 (after 10 straight)

SEP 26 (after 9 straight and before our last 3 of the season)

 

Having a 6 man rotation up to AUG 22 would mean all 6 starters get 2 days extra of rest, since we have days off after 6 days, twice in a row. Maybe there is not a need until after AUG 22. We could also spot start Pivetta to allow just Houck and Crawford an extra day of rest, every chance we can, but keep Bello, Paxton and Criswell on mostly normal rest.

 

Teams constantly discuss the six man rotation, but no one ever adopts it for an extended stretch. Probably because while it helps the starters, it can wear down the bilullpen…

[Old Red]

Teams constantly discuss the six man rotation, but no one ever adopts it for an extended stretch. Probably because while it helps the starters, it can wear down the bilullpen…

 

Haven’t heard any piggyback talk this year either.

[moonslav59]

Teams constantly discuss the six man rotation, but no one ever adopts it for an extended stretch. Probably because while it helps the starters, it can wear down the bilullpen…

 

In theory, going with a 6 man rotation should allow pitchers to go an extra few batters per game, so maybe it evens out.

 

BTW, the Braves have used it a bit, this year. With 111 games played and some days off, one would expect 22-23 GS by all uninjured starters on the Braves. (Fried is on the IL, now, but I'm not sure others missed starts due to injuries.)

 

GS by Braves pitchers:

19 Sale (-3 to 4)

18 Morton (-4 to 5)

18 Lopez (-4 to 5)

18 Fried (???)

9 Schwellenbach

8 Elder

2 Strider (on 60 Day IL)

 

None of these starts were by "openers" as all averaged more than 3.1 IP/GS:

2 Kerr, Vines, Winans, Waldrep

1 Smith-Shawyer

 

[vegasbob]

One use of either Rich Hill or Paxton would be to throw extended BP to our hitters trying to cure the "Can't hit LH slop throwers" syndrome. They wouldn't even have to put Hill on the roster. Give him a million and he throw to our guys all day.

[notin]

In theory, going with a 6 man rotation should allow pitchers to go an extra few batters per game, so maybe it evens out.

 

BTW, the Braves have used it a bit, this year. With 111 games played and some days off, one would expect 22-23 GS by all uninjured starters on the Braves. (Fried is on the IL, now, but I'm not sure others missed starts due to injuries.)

 

GS by Braves pitchers:

19 Sale (-3 to 4)

18 Morton (-4 to 5)

18 Lopez (-4 to 5)

18 Fried (???)

9 Schwellenbach

8 Elder

2 Strider (on 60 Day IL)

 

None of these starts were by "openers" as all averaged more than 3.1 IP/GS:

2 Kerr, Vines, Winans, Waldrep

1 Smith-Shawyer

 

 

If you go to a six man rotation to give additional rest to yours starters, you defeat the purpose by having them go more IP per start.

 

For example for simple math, look at a 60 game stretch.

 

If a five man rotation goes 5 IP per start, each starter makes 12 starts and pitches 60 IP each.

 

A six man rotation going 6 IP per start would make 10 starts each and pitch 60 IP each.

[moonslav59]

If you go to a six man rotation to give additional rest to yours starters, you defeat the purpose by having them go more IP per start.

 

For example for simple math, look at a 60 game stretch.

 

If a five man rotation goes 5 IP per start, each starter makes 12 starts and pitches 60 IP each.

 

A six man rotation going 6 IP per start would make 10 starts each and pitch 60 IP each.

 

I said a few extra batter, not a full IP, although that could happen, every few starts, if needed.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Rotation, since June 1st:

 

ERA

3.12 Wink (2GS) 3.89 xFIP

3.38 Crawford (9) 3.87

3.76 Criswell (5) 4.21

4.20 Houck (8) 3.77

4.81 Pivetta (9) 3.47

6.33 Bello (9) 3.63

 

fWAR(almost the reverse of the above list!)

1.1 Pivetta

0.6 Houck

0.5 Criswell

0.4 Bello

0.2 Kelly (4.2 IP in 2GS)

0.0 Crawford

-0.1 Wink

 

[harmony]

We should ask Harmony his opinion on Dipoto, but I'll wager he gets fired after the season if they do not make the playoffs . Hence, his motivation, unlike Breslow's, is short term not the future.

Jerry Dipoto's job is likely safe despite the Seattle fans' persistent calls for the ax.

 

In seven-plus years under Dipoto, the Mariners have posted MLB's 11th-best regular-season record at 669-629 (.515), including the eight-best record at 321-269 (.544) since the start of the 2021 season.

 

in the eight seasons before Dipoto's arrival, the Mariners posted MLB's 29th-best record at 583-713 (.450).

 

Since 2021 the Seattle payroll has ranked in the bottom half of Major League Baseball. The M's currently have a highly regarded farm system.

 

Still, the Mariners have been nearly unwatchable this season (the mirror image of the upstart Red Sox).

 

FWIW the Los Angeles Angels are on pace for their ninth-straight losing season since Dipoto's departure from Anaheim.

[Bellhorn04]

Still, the Mariners have been nearly unwatchable this season (the mirror image of the upstart Red Sox).

 

Nearly unwatchable even when they were way ahead in the division?

[vegasbob]

Jerry Dipoto's job is likely safe despite the Seattle fans' persistent calls for the ax.

 

In seven-plus years under Dipoto, the Mariners have posted MLB's 11th-best regular-season record at 669-629 (.515), including the eight-best record at 321-269 (.544) since the start of the 2021 season.

 

in the eight seasons before Dipoto's arrival, the Mariners posted MLB's 29th-best record at 583-713 (.450).

 

Since 2021 the Seattle payroll has ranked in the bottom half of Major League Baseball. The M's currently have a highly regarded farm system.

 

Still, the Mariners have been nearly unwatchable this season (the mirror image of the upstart Red Sox).

 

FWIW the Los Angeles Angels are on pace for their ninth-straight losing season since Dipoto's departure from Anaheim.

 

Thanks for the insights from Seattle perspective. I know nothing of the atmosphere in the Mariner's FO or ownership . Dipoto got sent away from LAA after a significant disagreement with Mike Scoscia over the introduction and use of analytics . LAA did win the AL West in the 2014 season, followed by getting booted out in mid 2015. He was the GM who signed Josh Hamilton to a 5 year, $125 million contract.

[harmony]

Thanks for the insights from Seattle perspective. I know nothing of the atmosphere in the Mariner's FO or ownership . Dipoto got sent away from LAA after a significant disagreement with Mike Scoscia over the introduction and use of analytics . LAA did win the AL West in the 2014 season, followed by getting booted out in mid 2015. He was the GM who signed Josh Hamilton to a 5 year, $125 million contract.

Jerry Dipoto offered a different take on the Josh Hamilton contract:

 

https://www.halosheaven.com/2015/9/29/9419083/angels-jerry-dipoto-mike-scioscia-hamilton-moreno

[harmony]

Nearly unwatchable even when they were way ahead in the division?

Strangely enough: Yes.

[moonslav59]

HOU is about to beat LAD and stay in the lead for the ALW crown. They have 2 more losses than the Sox. SEA is the team right behind the Sox in the WC race, and they have 4 more losses.

 

In terms of losses, the Sox are...

5 behind BAL for the ALE crown. (playing SDP)

3 behind NYY for the top WC slot.

2 behind MIN for the #2 WC slot. (playing MIN)

1 behind KCR for the #3 WC slot. (playing the Cubs)

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Mets just passed the Braves for the #1 WC slot.

[moonslav59]

As badly as we have been playing, the rest of the league has not done much better.

 

50 games to go, and the Sox have a better record than ATL, HOU, SDP and AZ.

 

We have the 9th best record in MLB and are tied for 8th with the lowest loss total.

 

We are 2 losses from the 6th best team in MLB (NYY & MIN.)

[moonslav59]

I'm hoping to start an optimistic Part III thread after the deadline.

 

Let's go Brez: show your stuff!

[moonslav59]

Since May 3st, the Sox have the second best OPS (.819) and wOBA (.352) to the NYM.

1.030 Devers

.979 Duran

.973 Valdez (AAA)

.946 O'Neill

.825 Rafaela

.806 Smith

.803 Refsnyder

.794 Romy

.780 Wong

.718 Abreu

.702 Hamilton

.702 Yoshida

.628 Westbrook

.402 McGuire

 

ERA- since May 31

43 Booser

65 Kelly

68 Jansen

75 Wink

79 Crawford

88 Criswell (do NOT demote him to the pen)

89 Houck

 

100 Keller

101 Pivetta

 

113 Anderson

146 Bello

149 Horn

153 Weissert

186 Bernardino (What happened?)

 

[moonslav59]

Team Records since May 31

32-15 NYM

29-19 ARI

29-17 HOU

27-18 BOS

26-23 BAL

26-20 MIN

26-21 CIN, LAD, MIL, PIT, SDP

26-23 STL

25-21 PHI (Maybe not so invincible)

 

Worst 8:

12-37 CWS

18-31 COL

18-29 MIA

20-28 OAK

21-27 SFG, CHC, TOR

21-26 NYY

(KCR are 22-24)

25-22 CLE

 

If we take the next two from the Yanks, they might be the 5th worst team in MLB since May 31st!!!

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

Teams constantly discuss the six man rotation, but no one ever adopts it for an extended stretch. Probably because while it helps the starters, it can wear down the bilullpen…

 

Of course.

[Maxbialystock]

Team Records since May 31

32-15 NYM

29-19 ARI

29-17 HOU

27-18 BOS

26-23 BAL

26-20 MIN

26-21 CIN, LAD, MIL, PIT, SDP

26-23 STL

25-21 PHI (Maybe not so invincible)

 

Worst 8:

12-37 CWS

18-31 COL

18-29 MIA

20-28 OAK

21-27 SFG, CHC, TOR

21-26 NYY

(KCR are 22-24)

25-22 CLE

 

If we take the next two from the Yanks, they might be the 5th worst team in MLB since May 31st!!!

 

 

 

You have no peer in bombarding us with good stats to make a point. I notice that Casas appears to be on the mend and is swinging at real pitches--and could return next month. I'm the one who kept saying he might not return this season because his injury is so unusual and because it happened while simply swinging the bat.

 

Anyway, your stats on pitching, hitting and W-L records are enlightening.

[Maxbialystock]

One use of either Rich Hill or Paxton would be to throw extended BP to our hitters trying to cure the "Can't hit LH slop throwers" syndrome. They wouldn't even have to put Hill on the roster. Give him a million and he throw to our guys all day.

 

Interesting. I've read the Sox have a pitch simulator that allows Sox hitters to practice against specific types of pitchers. But your point is valid. When Abreu goes against lefties, he looks lost in Yonkers.