A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

A reasonable one? Do we need to make a debate out of it?

 

Ok, fine. Your response was unreasonable! In fact, I hope Texas sells off not only deGrom and Mahle, but also Eovaldi and San Antonio and then starts to mess with Texas!

 

I should have mentioned again about Bochy being a great manager as another reason Texas is still in it.

[moonslav59]

Sox have a very difficult schedule down the stretch and they just whiffed in COL. Not looking great at the moment, but maybe a trade or two will give them a boost?

 

Agreed, but one aspect cannot be overlooked: we are not the only playoff contender struggling, right now. somebody posted, recently, the Yanks have been one of the worst teams in MLB over the last 35-40 games. We could possible play .500 ball and pass them. I'm also not convinced 2-3 teams from the ALC make the dance. Most other teams have tough stretches coming up, too.

 

NYY: has lost 4 of 5 (sound familiar?) and are 10-22 in the last 32 games.

BAL: has lost 3 straight and 8 of 11 (10-13 in last 23)

MIN: has lost 4 of 6 and 6 of 10

KCR: has being doing well, but has lost 2 straight, and before sweeping the CWS, lost 2 of 3 to BOS.

 

No team wants to rely on other teams to lose, but we are not alone.

 

[moonslav59]

I really hope we don't squander a top 10 prospect(s) for a rental(s.) I'm okay with some lower prospects for 1 or 2 or 3, but not top ones.

 

Getting a SP'er with 1.3 or more years of control will be more costly, especially since 20+ teams might be in the bidding, but we can afford to bite the bullet to et 1 or 2 like this (2.3+ years would be even better.)

 

I am doubtful we go this route. Trading 5+ years of a top 10 prospect for even 2.3 years of a stud, shortens the "window" from 5 to 2.3, and I'm not sure the Sox top brass wants to do that, right now. They probably think waiting another year or two to do a deal or two like this, makes more sense.

 

"Choosing a lane," and let's assume it is the buying one, does not mean we are going all in, or even significantly "in." To me, a big part of choosing the buyer lane is to identify where we have duplicated values and deciding who to keep and who to offer up in trade. We may prefer Anthony over Abreu, but a deal might come about, where the other GM insists on Anthony, and we end up sticking with Abreu (Ref/Campbell/Yorke/Lugo/Bleis...) as our 3rd and 4th OF'ers. We may decide to roll the dice with Story, once again and a 2B combination of DHam- Romy/Grissom/Campbell/Yorke/Meidroth...) and bite the bullet by trading away Mayer. We could keep Mayer and trade Campbell. We may think having Wong as out catcher for the "window" is enough, and decide to trade Teel. I doubt our farther away prospects like Bleis, Cespedes and the oft-injured Perales net us a big prize, so I'd hold onto them. Trading Fitts, Sandlin, Perales, E R-C or Dobbins, as part of a bigger package, should only be done, if we get a controllable pitcher in return.

 

I get the sentiment that no team can ever have too much young talent, but the "wait till next year" refrain has already maxed out it's usage. To me, the time is now.

 

What I think will happen is this:

 

1. We will not trade a top 9-10 prospect, this deadline.

2. We may trade a number of players like Meidroth, Yorke, Lugo, Paulino, Castro, Jordan, Wikelman, Hickey, Kavadas or even ML experienced guys like Valdez or Abreu (assuming we get a RHB for Wilyer) for 2-3 significant but not really good rentals.

3. We trade a top 3 prospect in a package for a TOTR SP"er, this coming winter.

 

[notin]

I really hope we don't squander a top 10 prospect(s) for a rental(s.) I'm okay with some lower prospects for 1 or 2 or 3, but not top ones.

 

Getting a SP'er with 1.3 or more years of control will be more costly, especially since 20+ teams might be in the bidding, but we can afford to bite the bullet to et 1 or 2 like this (2.3+ years would be even better.)

 

I am doubtful we go this route. Trading 5+ years of a top 10 prospect for even 2.3 years of a stud, shortens the "window" from 5 to 2.3, and I'm not sure the Sox top brass wants to do that, right now. They probably think waiting another year or two to do a deal or two like this, makes more sense.

 

"Choosing a lane," and let's assume it is the buying one, does not mean we are going all in, or even significantly "in." To me, a big part of choosing the buyer lane is to identify where we have duplicated values and deciding who to keep and who to offer up in trade. We may prefer Anthony over Abreu, but a deal might come about, where the other GM insists on Anthony, and we end up sticking with Abreu (Ref/Campbell/Yorke/Lugo/Bleis...) as our 3rd and 4th OF'ers. We may decide to roll the dice with Story, once again and a 2B combination of DHam- Romy/Grissom/Campbell/Yorke/Meidroth...) and bite the bullet by trading away Mayer. We could keep Mayer and trade Campbell. We may think having Wong as out catcher for the "window" is enough, and decide to trade Teel. I doubt our farther away prospects like Bleis, Cespedes and the oft-injured Perales net us a big prize, so I'd hold onto them. Trading Fitts, Sandlin, Perales, E R-C or Dobbins, as part of a bigger package, should only be done, if we get a controllable pitcher in return.

 

I get the sentiment that no team can ever have too much young talent, but the "wait till next year" refrain has already maxed out it's usage. To me, the time is now.

 

What I think will happen is this:

 

1. We will not trade a top 9-10 prospect, this deadline.

2. We may trade a number of players like Meidroth, Yorke, Lugo, Paulino, Castro, Jordan, Wikelman, Hickey, Kavadas or even ML experienced guys like Valdez or Abreu (assuming we get a RHB for Wilyer) for 2-3 significant but not really good rentals.

3. We trade a top 3 prospect in a package for a TOTR SP"er, this coming winter.

 

 

 

Number 3 feels like a pipe dream, and usually one we repeat to ourselves every November…

[Duran Is The Man]

The sellers at this point appear to be the bottom two teams in every division, except the NL Central, where Chicago and Cincy could go either way. Also Texas should be selling.

 

And in a really odd recommendation, the first place Mariners should seriously consider it. They won’t, of course. But they’ve already squandered their big lead and just cannot score runs ever. And their superstar who was having a bad year is not out. Clearly not their year…

 

the Mariners have a surplus of pitching, but like you said, they can't score runs. they just called up five of their best AAA prospects (all position players) due to injuries and a hope that some of them will help their struggling offense. teams would be smart to offer them offense for some of their pitching.

[moonslav59]

Number 3 feels like a pipe dream, and usually one we repeat to ourselves every November…

 

I think we will come to this point, but I suppose they may wait one more winter.

 

We've had enormous success trading top prospects for controllable SP'ers- way better than the FA route.

 

I am not expecting it to happen, but I think there is a very good chance it does- a much better chance than I have thought in the past 4-5 years.

[Larry Cook]

I really hope we don't squander a top 10 prospect(s) for a rental(s.) I'm okay with some lower prospects for 1 or 2 or 3, but not top ones.

 

Getting a SP'er with 1.3 or more years of control will be more costly, especially since 20+ teams might be in the bidding, but we can afford to bite the bullet to et 1 or 2 like this (2.3+ years would be even better.)

 

I am doubtful we go this route. Trading 5+ years of a top 10 prospect for even 2.3 years of a stud, shortens the "window" from 5 to 2.3, and I'm not sure the Sox top brass wants to do that, right now. They probably think waiting another year or two to do a deal or two like this, makes more sense.

 

"Choosing a lane," and let's assume it is the buying one, does not mean we are going all in, or even significantly "in." To me, a big part of choosing the buyer lane is to identify where we have duplicated values and deciding who to keep and who to offer up in trade. We may prefer Anthony over Abreu, but a deal might come about, where the other GM insists on Anthony, and we end up sticking with Abreu (Ref/Campbell/Yorke/Lugo/Bleis...) as our 3rd and 4th OF'ers. We may decide to roll the dice with Story, once again and a 2B combination of DHam- Romy/Grissom/Campbell/Yorke/Meidroth...) and bite the bullet by trading away Mayer. We could keep Mayer and trade Campbell. We may think having Wong as out catcher for the "window" is enough, and decide to trade Teel. I doubt our farther away prospects like Bleis, Cespedes and the oft-injured Perales net us a big prize, so I'd hold onto them. Trading Fitts, Sandlin, Perales, E R-C or Dobbins, as part of a bigger package, should only be done, if we get a controllable pitcher in return.

 

I get the sentiment that no team can ever have too much young talent, but the "wait till next year" refrain has already maxed out it's usage. To me, the time is now.

 

What I think will happen is this:

 

1. We will not trade a top 9-10 prospect, this deadline.

2. We may trade a number of players like Meidroth, Yorke, Lugo, Paulino, Castro, Jordan, Wikelman, Hickey, Kavadas or even ML experienced guys like Valdez or Abreu (assuming we get a RHB for Wilyer) for 2-3 significant but not really good rentals.

3. We trade a top 3 prospect in a package for a TOTR SP"er, this coming winter.

 

 

2025 is the time. Sell sell sell sell now, O’Neil, Jansen, and pivetta. Buy cost controlled relievers at the deadline for prospects outside the top 15!

 

Sign/trade two starters (one or both left handed) and two right handed bats in the offseason.

[notin]

I think we will come to this point, but I suppose they may wait one more winter.

 

We've had enormous success trading top prospects for controllable SP'ers- way better than the FA route.

 

I am not expecting it to happen, but I think there is a very good chance it does- a much better chance than I have thought in the past 4-5 years.

 

I think we might find by next year, one or more of Houck, Crawford or Bello (yes, Bello) might step up and come closer to filling that void than people realize. I’m still very high on that trio…

[moonslav59]

the Mariners have a surplus of pitching, but like you said, they can't score runs. they just called up five of their best AAA prospects (all position players) due to injuries and a hope that some of them will help their struggling offense. teams would be smart to offer them offense for some of their pitching.

 

They have also been rumored to be listening for offers on some of their best SP'ers. I think we might match up with them, but more likely, this winter, not the deadline.

 

Castillo ($21.6 AAV until 2027 w vesting option for '28.

Gilbert (3 arbs left!)

Kirby (4 arbs remaining!)

Miller (pre-arb!!!)

Woo (pre-arb, but not likely available)

 

We could offer Anthony or Abreu + mid level prospects

We could offer Mayer or Campbell plus others

I'm not sure Abreu, Campbell and Fitts gets us one.

[moonslav59]

2025 is the time. Sell sell sell sell now, O’Neil, Jansen, and pivetta. Buy cost controlled relievers at the deadline for prospects outside the top 15!

 

Sign/trade two starters (one or both left handed) and two right handed bats in the offseason.

 

I can actually see this way of thinking as being justifiable, but with the way MLB is set up, right now, especially the AL, I think we are close enough to being a top AL contender, this year, than we have been since 2021.

 

I do think trading Jansen, Pivetta and O'Neill could significantly improve our chances in 2025 and beyond, but I'm tired of the wait until next year mantra.

[mvp 78]

They have also been rumored to be listening for offers on some of their best SP'ers. I think we might match up with them, but more likely, this winter, not the deadline.

 

Castillo ($21.6 AAV until 2027 w vesting option for '28.

Gilbert (3 arbs left!)

Kirby (4 arbs remaining!)

Miller (pre-arb!!!)

Woo (pre-arb, but not likely available)

 

We could offer Anthony or Abreu + mid level prospects

We could offer Mayer or Campbell plus others

I'm not sure Abreu, Campbell and Fitts gets us one.

 

People talked all offseason about trading with the M's. I just don't see them dealing their cost effective pitchers.

[moonslav59]

I think we might find by next year, one or more of Houck, Crawford or Bello (yes, Bello) might step up and come closer to filling that void than people realize. I’m still very high on that trio…

 

I feel the same. Maybe Bello is just going through some growing pains.

 

I also think Criswell may be morphing into a decent 5/6 slot pitcher. The big if for 2025 is Giolito in the rotation and Hendriks (and Fulmer to a lesser extent) in the pen. We could be one major SP'er away from a top 8 rotation in MLB. We are currently 6th in fWAR rotations, but may end up 8th to 10th by season's end.

 

Next year, Houck, Crawford and Bello should be able to go 175-190 IP. If Gio can give us 190 decent IP, we could be fine.

[mvp 78]

I can actually see this way of thinking as being justifiable, but with the way MLB is set up, right now, especially the AL, I think we are close enough to being a top AL contender, this year, than we have been since 2021.

 

I do think trading Jansen, Pivetta and O'Neill could significantly improve our chances in 2025 and beyond, but I'm tired of the wait until next year mantra.

 

With how the AL is set up, why would the M's consider moving their pitchers when they should be in contention for the next 3 years. If they could fix their hitting via FA, they could turn that club around easily. Even with the hitting woes, they are still in the playoff picture right now!

[moonslav59]

People talked all offseason about trading with the M's. I just don't see them dealing their cost effective pitchers.

 

Reports said they were open to the idea, but their asking price must have been too high.

[moonslav59]

With how the AL is set up, why would the M's consider moving their pitchers when they should be in contention for the next 3 years. If they could fix their hitting via FA, they could turn that club around easily. Even with the hitting woes, they are still in the playoff picture right now!

 

They have been willing to spend, in the past, but they never seem to go really big on FA bats. Soto could be that guy, but the bidding will get silly big on him.

[notin]

With how the AL is set up, why would the M's consider moving their pitchers when they should be in contention for the next 3 years. If they could fix their hitting via FA, they could turn that club around easily. Even with the hitting woes, they are still in the playoff picture right now!

 

The Mariners are still in the AL West picture, but getting farther away from even the third Wild Card. Still, I think they add bats using sources besides the young pitching because that young pitching makes them contenders for a few years in the immediate future. They can find other trade chips to get some bats. And also hope JRod breaks out of his season-long slump sometime soon…

[notin]

Reports said they were open to the idea, but their asking price must have been too high.

 

The price for any of their younger arms could easily be Roman Anthony…

[mvp 78]

Reports said they were open to the idea, but their asking price must have been too high.

 

Like when the ChiSox would only deal Cease if it included Bello?

[mvp 78]

They have been willing to spend, in the past, but they never seem to go really big on FA bats. Soto could be that guy, but the bidding will get silly big on him.

 

 

"Hi, it's me. I'm the problem, it's me." John Henry

[mvp 78]

The price for any of their younger arms could easily be Roman Anthony…

 

A trade for George Kirby would summon an angry A700 to appear for sure.

[moonslav59]

The price for any of their younger arms could easily be Roman Anthony…

 

I'd do it.

 

We have Abreu locked up and Duran seems more than capable of playing CF well.

 

LF: Duran/Ref

CF: Rafaela/Duran

RF: Abreu/Ref

 

We have Ref to platoon in LF for one more year, and a mix of Campbell, Yorke and Lugo for LF help seems like more than enough depth and can replace Ref in 2026.

 

2026:

 

LF: Duran, Campbell/Yorke/Lugo

CF: Rafaela, Duran

RF: Abreu, Campbell/Yorke/Lugo

 

I'd trade Anthony, Fitts and any 2 prospects from 10-20, except Arias for a SEA SP'er.

[notin]

A trade for George Kirby would summon an angry A700 to appear for sure.

 

I don’t think Roman Anthony could get George Kirby in a trade unless Breslow kidnapped Jerry Dipoto’s kids and made that trade his sole ransom demand.

 

And even then, DiPoto might negotiate down, asking for one kid and he’ll deal Bryan Woo…

[mvp 78]

Abreu is a good player, but I don't think he's really blocking Anthony or anything. He's fine until someone better comes along.

[mvp 78]

I don’t think Roman Anthony could get George Kirby in a trade unless Breslow kidnapped Jerry Dipoto’s kids and made that trade his sole ransom demand.

 

And even then, DiPoto might negotiate down, asking for one kid and he’ll deal Bryan Woo…

 

There'd obviously be more in that deal.

[notin]

There'd obviously be more in that deal.

 

More random demands?

 

You greedy demon!!!!

[notin]

Abreu is a good player, but I don't think he's really blocking Anthony or anything. He's fine until someone better comes along.

 

I like the idea of trading Abreu for an arm if the Sox do acquire a shortstop. Move Rafaela where he belongs and clear up the OF logjam while improving the infield defense? Count me in…

[mvp 78]

I like the idea of trading Abreu for an arm if the Sox do acquire a shortstop. Move Rafaela where he belongs and clear up the OF logjam while improving the infield defense? Count me in…

 

I like that idea better. A trade of Abreu is less likely to come back and bite you after all is said and done.

[notin]

There'd obviously be more in that deal.

 

According to BTV’s system, Kirby (106.5) would cost Roman Anthony (53.2) and Marcelo Mayer (54.2)…

[mvp 78]

According to BTV’s system, Kirby (106.5) would cost Roman Anthony (53.2) and Marcelo Mayer (54.2)…

 

In!

[notin]

In!

 

With Campbell and Montgomery, the Sox OF depth feels semi-secure. SS feels exposed, although I’m confident Romero can fill Story’s shoes on the Injured List. Not sure who lines up between second and third next year…