A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Nick]

I never realized Janssen was Swedish.

 

He's a classy guy. Deserves the extra s.

[moonslav59]

He's a classy guy. Deserves the extra s.

 

He's Vohnderfool.

[Maxbialystock]

I’m fearful JH is never going to spend big again or is waiting to spend once all the kids are showing they are 1-2 big players away.

 

I’m thinking 2025, but I doubt he agrees.

 

It would be nice if he did "spend big again."

 

But at the same time there is absolutely no reassurance for any owner that spending big does the trick. I say this because players' salaries are almost always guaranteed, which means an injury or whatever is all on the owner. So I doubt there's is a single team anywhere in MLB who have spent big on players without ending up holding the bag.

 

Like the Yankees. They have a huge fan base, excellent attendance, TV ratings, whatever, so they can definitely afford to spend big for players and usually do exactly that. It's why they've won 27 WS's. As recently as 1998, 1999, and 2000 they won 3 straight WS.

 

But since the 2000 season, the Yankees have won 1 WS, in 2009. In that same time frame the Sox have won 4 WS and the Giants 3, I think. The Angels have won 1 in that time frame, and so have the freaking Marlins! The Cubs finally ended their drought.

 

It gets better--or worse, depending on your perspective. Out in LA the Dodgers also have a gigantic fan base and lots and lots of money. So, like the Yankees, they'll go out and get, say, a Mookie Betts--just like that! Great arms for a king's ransom? No problem.

 

But guess what? Since 2000, the only WS the Dodgers won was the in phoniest season in MLB history, 2020, when players and fans were all getting covid. So to me it's a meaningless WS title.

 

Oh, the Phillies have won one WS, but it was in 2008, long before DD took over.

[moonslav59]

It would be nice if he did "spend big again."

 

But at the same time there is absolutely no reassurance for any owner that spending big does the trick. I say this because players' salaries are almost always guaranteed, which means an injury or whatever is all on the owner. So I doubt there's is a single team anywhere in MLB who have spent big on players without ending up holding the bag.

 

Like the Yankees. They have a huge fan base, excellent attendance, TV ratings, whatever, so they can definitely afford to spend big for players and usually do exactly that. It's why they've won 27 WS's. As recently as 1998, 1999, and 2000 they won 3 straight WS.

 

But since the 2000 season, the Yankees have won 1 WS, in 2009. In that same time frame the Sox have won 4 WS and the Giants 3, I think. The Angels have won 1 in that time frame, and so have the freaking Marlins! The Cubs finally ended their drought.

 

It gets better--or worse, depending on your perspective. Out in LA the Dodgers also have a gigantic fan base and lots and lots of money. So, like the Yankees, they'll go out and get, say, a Mookie Betts--just like that! Great arms for a king's ransom? No problem.

 

But guess what? Since 2000, the only WS the Dodgers won was the in phoniest season in MLB history, 2020, when players and fans were all getting covid. So to me it's a meaningless WS title.

 

Oh, the Phillies have won one WS, but it was in 2008, long before DD took over.

 

I fully understand how spending big often fails, and sometimes very badly.

 

To me, that does not mean never try again.

 

We can't keep counting on finding a Houck, every year. We look to have at least 3 major holes, next year- some might say 4-5.

 

SP2

Closer

RHB

2B/SS

SP3

 

We have seen what $5-10M/1 yr deals get us (and others.)

 

We need to step up spending to have a real shot, and yes, we need to hit on some of our signings.

[Hugh2]

Reminder. We are $106M under $240M cap for 2025.

 

We lose Janssen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill.

 

Without spending another penny, we return Giolito, Story, Whitlock and Liam (assuming he doen't pitch much this year).

 

Maybe the budget is $220 M instead of $240M.

 

How can we not be competitive if we're allowed $80M for new aquisitions?

 

It’s more like $87 million under the cap. So if the budget is truly $220 the it’s closer to $67 million they have to spend this offseason.

 

Would love to see them use it on pitching

[Hugh2]

Fantastic comparison!!! Brilliant!!!

 

That one post/page demonstrates why/how John Henry came to see big bucks for pitchers as fool's gold. The 2019 Sox payroll was the highest in MLB and actually needed to go up by at least another $50M if JH wanted to keep Mookie (for whom the Dodgers were happy to get in a bidding war) and to replace Price and Sale, who were fading fast.

 

The combined salaries of the current Sox rotation are less than Jansen's salary of $16M.

 

Didn’t Bellos extension kick in this year? I think just him and Pivetta eat up more than $16 million; the rest of the rotation is cheap so point taken.

 

Noteworthy, Sox have more money on starters on the IL than they do in their rotation.

[moonslav59]

Didn’t Bellos extension kick in this year? I think just him and Pivetta eat up more than $16 million; the rest of the rotation is cheap so point taken.

 

Noteworthy, Sox have more money on starters on the IL than they do in their rotation.

 

True. The cots numbers include no arb costs, but it does include the $17M for player benefits and the estimate for rounding out the 40 man roster with minor leaguers.

 

According to cots, it's about:

 

$117M for Devers, Story, Yoshida, Giolito, Bello, Rafaela, Hendriks, Whitlock & Ref's option. That's just 9 players from the 26.

$20M for player benefits, the 0-3 year bonus pool and a little for Hosmer.

This brings us to about $137M before arbs, pre-arbs and 40 man roster salaries. The good thing is, many of our players are pre-arb and contributing. Here is a very early arb guess by me:

6.5 Houck (1st of 3 arbs is usually a gross underpay)

4.0 Duran (1st of 4 arbs)

3.0 Crawford (1st of 4 arbs)

2.5 McGuire (3rd of 3 arbs)

1.0 Dalbec (1st or 3 or non tendered)

I could be way off, but this is about $13M added for arbs.

 

That brings us to an even $150M for 13 players (14 w Dalbec.)

That leaves 13-14 pre-arb players before any outside additions. I think their pay will average between $725K and $750K. $750 x 13= 9.8M. I'll call it $10M.

 

With no additions, we'd be at about $160M.

 

No Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, Smith, Anderson. We could fill all those slots with current minor leaguers to get to 26, and add $3M for the 14 players on the 40, but in the minors. Let's say we get to $163M. That would leave...

 

$78M to spend to improve this projected 26 and 40 man roster:

 

SP1 Houck

SP2 ____ Crawford

SP3_____Bello

SP4 Criswell (Crawford)

SP5 Fitts (Bello)

 

RP1____ Hendriks

RP2 Whitlock (Hendriks & move everyone down on slot)

RP3 Slaten

RP4 Bernardino

RP5 Weissert

RP6 Fulmer

RP7 Booser

RP8 Winkowski/I Campbell

 

C Wong & McGuire

1B Casas

2B DHam & Grissom

SS Story & Romy G.

3B Devers

LF Duran & Ref

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu

DH Yoshida

14 Minor leaguers, assuming no additions

1 from ICampbell/Wink/Booser and Perales, Wikelman, Horn, Uwasawa

Heineman (or another catcher)

+ 6 Rule 5's: Bastardo, Dobbins, Guerrero, Jh Garcia, M Lugo & Yorke (Doubtful but take 2 from: Jordan, unless we nontender Dalbec, Hickey, Sogard, Castro, Paulino)

 

Big assumption, but let's say we spend $77M. I'd spend it something like this:

 

$27M SP

$20M SP or $10M on SP and $10M on SS/2B (see RHB)

$16M Closer

$14M RHB (1B/DH/middle IF?)

 

Do I think this happens? NO! I doubt we even come close.

[notin]

Didn’t Bellos extension kick in this year? I think just him and Pivetta eat up more than $16 million; the rest of the rotation is cheap so point taken.

 

Noteworthy, Sox have more money on starters on the IL than they do in their rotation.

 

Per Soxprospects:

 

Pivetta - $7.5mill

Bello - $1mill

Criswell - $1mill

Houck - $770,000

Crawford - $760,000

 

The entire rotation makes $11.3mill, or slightly more than the Cardinals are paying the mediocre Lance Lynn.

 

And far less than the Red Sox are paying Lucas Giolito…

Edited June 14, 2024 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Monster IF here, but IF the Sox can replicate this series result against the Yanks, the selloff might be on hold.

[Bellhorn04]

Per Soxprospects:

 

Pivetta - $7.5mill

Bello - $1mill

Criswell - $1mill

Houck - $770,000

Crawford - $760,000

 

The entire rotation makes $11.3mill, or slightly more than the Cardinals are paying the mediocre Lance Lynn…

 

I think we're making a bit too much of how cheap this rotation is. Bello got that extension, and Houck and Crawford are gonna get a lot more expensive if they keep pitching well.

 

Good players don't stay cheap, only bad ones do.

[moonslav59]

Per Soxprospects:

 

Pivetta - $7.5mill

Bello - $1mill

Criswell - $1mill

Houck - $770,000

Crawford - $760,000

 

The entire rotation makes $11.3mill, or slightly more than the Cardinals are paying the mediocre Lance Lynn…

 

Yes, but Bello's AAV is $9.2M.

[moonslav59]

I think we're making a bit too much of how cheap this rotation is. Bello got that extension, and Houck and Crawford are gonna get a lot more expensive if they keep pitching well.

 

Good players don't stay cheap, only bad ones do.

 

Houck and Crawford reach their first arbs in 2025, which are usually gross underpays. (Here is a chance to front-end these guys some cash by extending them to 1-2 years beyond their control years, but giving them more cash up front.) Duran is getting his first of 4 arbs, too.

 

We have very few arbs, this year, and most are first years or for a guy like McGuire (3rd year of 3.)

[Bellhorn04]

Houck and Crawford reach their first arbs in 2025, which are usually gross underpays.

 

Yep. Mookie's first arb pay was $10.5 million which he received after 2017. That must be among the very highest first arb pays handed out if not the highest.

 

But they also seem to be gradually increasing the arb pays.

[moonslav59]

Still pre-arbs in 2025:

Casas

Wong

Abreu

Slaten

Weissert

Bernardino

Valdez

DHam

Criswell

Grissom

Romy

 

Basically, everyone except Devers, Story, Yoshida, Gio, Hendriks, Whitlock, Bello, Rafaela, Ref (option) and arb guys McGuire (3 of 3), Houck (1 of 3), Duran (1 of 4) and Crawford (1 of 4). That's just 13 of the 26.

 

The rest are pre-arb.

 

Our big 3 prospects will not even be Rule 5 in 2025! These are the Rule 5's:

 

Angel Bastardo

Alex Binelas

Brainer Bonaci

Bryce Bonnin

Taylor Broadway

Zach Bryant

Allan Castro

Brendan Cellucci

Juan Chacon

Nathanael Cruz

Theo Denlinger

Kelvin Diaz

Hunter Dobbins

Juan Daniel Encarnacion

Albert Feliz

Max Ferguson

Richard Fitts

Michael Fulmer

Grant Gambrell

Jhostynxon Garcia

Bryan Gonzalez

Luis Guerrero

Francis Hernandez

Nathan Hickey

Gabriel Jackson

Blaze Jordan

Niko Kavadas

Robert Kwiatkowski

CJ Liu

Eduardo Lopez

Matthew Lugo

Elih Marrero

Tyler McDonough

Tyler Miller

Wyatt Mills

Yordanny Monegro

Juan Montero

Wyatt Olds

Eddinson Paulino

Ronald Rosario

Corey Rosier

Reidis Sena

Chase Shugart

Phillip Sikes

Karson Simas

Adam Smith

Nick Sogard

Noah Song

Luis Talavera

Christopher Troye

Tyler Uberstine

Miguel Ugueto

Brian Van Belle

Diego Viloria

Jacob Webb

Jeremy Wu-Yelland

Nick Yorke

Ryan Zeferjahn

[moonslav59]

Yep. Mookie's first arb pay was $10.5 million which he received after 2017. That must be among the very highest first arb pays handed out if not the highest.

 

But they also seem to be gradually increasing the arb pays.

 

If Houck wins the Cy Young, he may get a big first arb. Duran might get more than I think. How Crawford ends the season could determine a lot.

 

I doubt McGuire gets a big raise, despite it being his last arb year. They don't look at CERA.

[Hugh2]

Per Soxprospects:

 

Pivetta - $7.5mill

Bello - $1mill

Criswell - $1mill

Houck - $770,000

Crawford - $760,000

 

The entire rotation makes $11.3mill, or slightly more than the Cardinals are paying the mediocre Lance Lynn.

 

And far less than the Red Sox are paying Lucas Giolito…

 

 

Check the payroll page. + $8.17 million for Bello

 

That's 19.47 If we want to add in Whitlocks $4.68 and Giolito's 19.25 that's $43.40 million on the rotation I believe. Certainly low for a "big market" team.

[moonslav59]

Check the payroll page. + $8.17 million for Bello

 

That's 19.47 If we want to add in Whitlocks $4.68 and Giolito's 19.25 that's $43.40 million on the rotation I believe. Certainly low for a "big market" team.

 

That is Bello's AAV and Tax hit number, not his actual 2024 salary.

[Bellhorn04]

Glad we got all that straightened out.

[Hugh2]

That is Bello's AAV and Tax hit number, not his actual 2024 salary.

 

 

The AAV is the number that matters.

[moonslav59]

At one game over .500, we sit with the 12th best record in MLB, just...

0.5 from #11 SDP

2.0 from #10 MIN (currently the 3rd WC in the AL)

 

That being said, we are also just 2.5 games ahead of #22/23 PIT & WSH.

 

Lots of teams bunched up around .500 or 4 games below .500.

[moonslav59]

The AAV is the number that matters.

 

It used to, when we stayed near but below the line. I'm not so sure it matters, this year.

[mvp 78]

Yes, but Bello's AAV is $9.2M.

 

He better earn it this next start.

[Nick]

Bello is making $1.667M this year. And he's pitching like he's only making $1.667M this year. Although much higher than what Houck is making.

 

If Bello pitches well in next couple of years, he'll be extremely tradeable since his contract is backloaded. Teams such as Dodgers and Yankees would love it.

 

They have the 'cash' to pay him but it won't count against the luxury tax payroll as much as what they are paying him.

[Nick]

Do we have another gem in D Hamilton? I love his speed. He sure looks better than Grissom at the plate right now. I'd like to see him play 2B when Rafaela is playing short.

[Nick]

How about this lineup for next year?

 

LF Duran

2B Hamilton

DH O'Neill

3B Devers

1B Casas

SS Story

RF Abreu

CC Wong

CF Rafaela

 

Pretty athletic lineup with exception of Casas.....I haven't seen anything from Grissom thus far.....

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs now has DHam at a 1.0 fWAR in just 140 PAs. That's a 4.0 rate.

 

Sox fWAR Leaders bWAR

3.1 Houck 3.0

2.7 Duran 3.6

2.3 Devers 2.1

1.7 Crawford 1.6

1.6 Abreu 1.9

1.5 Wong 1.6

1.1 Slaten o.5

1.0 DHam 1.3

1.0 O'Neill 1.0

0.8 Jansen 0.6

0.7 Refsnyder o.7

0.7 Criswell 0.0

0.7 Bernardino 1.5

0.6 Whitlock 0.9

0.5 Casas o.2

0.4 Bello 0.0

0.4 Booser 0.4

0.2 McGuire 0.6

0.2 Wink 0.0

0.1 Weissert, Martin, Keller & Romy

 

bWAR

0.8 Rafaela

[notin]

The AAV is the number that matters.

 

Only when you’re at the tax limits.

 

Teams is the mid to lower payroll tiers only care about salary, which is why they still backload contracts…

[notin]

How about this lineup for next year?

 

LF Duran

2B Hamilton

DH O'Neill

3B Devers

1B Casas

SS Story

RF Abreu

CC Wong

CF Rafaela

 

Pretty athletic lineup with exception of Casas.....I haven't seen anything from Grissom thus far.....

 

CC Wong?

 

Isn’t that the guy from all those Jurassic Park movies?

[Hugh2]

Only when you’re at the tax limits.

 

Teams is the mid to lower payroll tiers only care about salary, which is why they still backload contracts…

 

$12 million under the limit is right up against the limit. That's saying we want to spend right up to the limit. Some of those costs aren't fixed, if you have to add to the 40 man whether it's trades or callups because guys get injured that can add millions, also you want room to deal at the deadline.

 

I'd say a fair person would consider $12 million under, up against the cap.

[notin]

$12 million under the limit is right up against the limit. That's saying we want to spend right up to the limit. Some of those costs aren't fixed, if you have to add to the 40 man whether it's trades or callups because guys get injured that can add millions, also you want room to deal at the deadline.

 

I'd say a fair person would consider $12 million under, up against the cap.

 

 

It’s under.

 

It only matters if you plan on adding payroll. Otherwise - $12mill under the cap is the same as $50mill under is the same as $1 under - no taxes.

 

AAV only matters for luxury tax. If Boston were to trade Bello to Miami or Tampa or Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas, those teams wouldn’t care about his AAV. But they would certainly care about his salary, especially if that salary escalates year to year…