A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I was at a game at Yankee Stadium many years ago. They gave all the fans one of those old IBM punch cards with the players names. You were supposed to push the tabs for your All Star Game selections and drop it off in a barrel on your way out. When I dropped mine in the barrel, I saw thousands of cards . They were wrinkled, folded , spindled ,mutilated , beer soaked , mustard covered and crumpled , with hanging chads everywhere. There was no way those cards were ever counted , either by machine or by hand. That was my first lesson in becoming cynical.

 

No one believes a word you just typed because you posted it on an anonymous forum on the internet. But if you posted a phone video of a UFO, they'd give you your own TV show.

[notin]

Shane Drohan is back.

[moonslav59]

Shane Drohan is back.

 

Wonder if we put him in AA or where?

 

I think he is still kinda rehabbing.

[Larry Cook]

Wonder if we put him in AA or where?

 

I think he is still kinda rehabbing.

 

I think we should put him in Oakland.

[Randy Red Sox]

tonight is exactly what pisses me off about the Red Sox. We continue to middle around .500 just enough to make fans and the FO think we are on the right track and never bad enough to address the real issues. I am sure we will be sitting somewhere between a .475-5.25 pace at this time next year after finishing 4th or 5th in the division this year. Until this team hits true rock bottom nothing is going to change.

[moonslav59]

tonight is exactly what pisses me off about the Red Sox. We continue to middle around .500 just enough to make fans and the FO think we are on the right track and never bad enough to address the real issues. I am sure we will be sitting somewhere between a .475-5.25 pace at this time next year after finishing 4th or 5th in the division this year. Until this team hits true rock bottom nothing is going to change.

 

Some thought after 2014 and 2015, we hit rock bottom, and that's why DD was hired. We won 149 games, those two years.

 

We've won 156, the last 2 years, which is pretty close, and in both sets of 2 years, we finished last.

 

I'm not sure where I'm going with this, but this feels like the bottom.

 

I think we'll start to see better records, soon, whether spending picks up or not, so I doubt you get your wish.

[moonslav59]

DHam's sample size is starting to get large enough to not ignore. He's almost even with Refsnyder in PAs.

 

He's 6th on the team in OPS, unless you count Casas.

 

Updated OPS leaders:

.928 Devers

.871 Refsnyder

.857 Casas

.852 O'Neill

.840 Wong

.829 Abreu

.820 DHam

.794 Duran

.726 Yoshida

 

.651 Romy

.641 Smith

.620 Westbrook

.607 Rafaela

.603 McGuire

 

.439 Dalbec

.367 Grissom

[Nick]

Can D Ham play 2B? He maybe better suited defensively at 2B. Struggles at short.

[Randy Red Sox]

Some thought after 2014 and 2015, we hit rock bottom, and that's why DD was hired. We won 149 games, those two years.

 

We've won 156, the last 2 years, which is pretty close, and in both sets of 2 years, we finished last.

 

I'm not sure where I'm going with this, but this feels like the bottom.

 

I think we'll start to see better records, soon, whether spending picks up or not, so I doubt you get your wish.

 

no i expect we will stay right about where we are now record wise maybe maxing out at around 85-86 wins next year

[mvp 78]

DHam's sample size is starting to get large enough to not ignore. He's almost even with Refsnyder in PAs.

 

 

WOBA 358

xWOBA 301

BABIP 379

BABIP MiLB 306

 

Enjoy the highs. Expect regression.

[mvp 78]

Can D Ham play 2B? He maybe better suited defensively at 2B. Struggles at short.

 

This has been said for a few years now. He doesn't have the arm for SS. Sox wanted him to play a little more OF to turn him to a UTIL guy possibly.

[notin]

tonight is exactly what pisses me off about the Red Sox. We continue to middle around .500 just enough to make fans and the FO think we are on the right track and never bad enough to address the real issues. I am sure we will be sitting somewhere between a .475-5.25 pace at this time next year after finishing 4th or 5th in the division this year. Until this team hits true rock bottom nothing is going to change.

 

The weird part is you complain after the win…

[mvp 78]

The weird part is you complain after the win…

 

He wanted them to play two.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox have had a run of 18 games at .500, 1 game over or 1 game under. It'll be 19 after tonight, of course.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have had a run of 18 games at .500, 1 game over or 1 game under. It'll be 19 after tonight, of course.

 

We had a 7 game stretch in April between +2 and +4 over .500.

We got to +2 on April 14th.

We were +2 to +3 from April 20-25, then +2 to +4 from April 27-May 8th.

From May 7 to today, we've never been more than +2 or -2 from .500

+2 three times (5/12, 5/14 & 5/22)

-2 once (5/18)

From May 8 to today, we have been very close to .500.

 

You can't get much closer to .500 than this.

[moonslav59]

Current Staff ERAs

1.91 Houck

3.47 Crawford

3.88 Pivetta

4.13 Criswell

4.78 Bello

 

20-40 IP

0.99 Bernardino 1.02 WHIP

2.14 Z Kelly 1.14

2.76 Slaten 0.98

2.83 Weissert 1.15

2.91 Jansen 1.20

3.33 Wink (AAA, now) 1.56

3.51 Booser 1.09

4.22 Martin (IL) 1.08

4.29 Anderson 1.15

 

[moonslav59]

Current Staff ERAs

1.91 Houck

3.47 Crawford

3.88 Pivetta

4.13 Criswell

4.78 Bello

 

20-40 IP

0.99 Bernardino 1.02 WHIP

2.14 Z Kelly 1.14

2.76 Slaten 0.98

2.83 Weissert 1.15

2.91 Jansen 1.20

3.33 Wink (AAA, now) 1.56

3.51 Booser 1.09

4.22 Martin (IL) 1.08

4.29 Anderson 1.15

 

 

The 2019 Rotation (look at the names!)

3.81 ERod 34 GS

4.28 Price 22

4.40 Sale 25

5.52 Porcello 32

5.99 Eovaldi 12

 

5.43 Velazquez 8

6.02 Johnson 7

6.20 Cashner 6

7.36 Chacin 5

 

2018 WS Champs:

2.11 Sale 27

3.58 Price 30

3.82 ERod 23

4.17 Johnson 13

4.28 Porcello 33

 

3.33 Nate 11

6.08 Pom 11

3.18 Velazquez 8

[moonslav59]

The 2019 Rotation (look at the names!)

3.81 ERod 34 GS

4.28 Price 22

4.40 Sale 25

5.52 Porcello 32

5.99 Eovaldi 12

 

5.43 Velazquez 8

6.02 Johnson 7

6.20 Cashner 6

7.36 Chacin 5

 

2018 WS Champs:

2.11 Sale 27

3.58 Price 30

3.82 ERod 23

4.17 Johnson 13

4.28 Porcello 33

 

3.33 Nate 11

6.08 Pom 11

3.18 Velazquez 8

 

Best Sox Pitching Staffs since 2016 by the numbers:

 

ERA

3.43 2024

3.73 2017

3.75 2018

4.00 2016

4.27 2021

 

xFIP

3.62 2024

3.91 2017

3.92 2018

4.07 2021

4.11 2022

 

ERA-

82 2017

83 2024

84 2018

91 2016

93 2021

97 2019

 

SIERA

3.55 2024

3.72 2018

3.77 2017

3.98 2022

4.00 2021

 

Rotation Only

ERA-

81 2024

85 2018

89 2017

96 2016

98 2021

(All of the .500+ seasons since 2014)

 

Edited June 13, 2024 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Reminder. We are $106M under $240M cap for 2025.

 

We lose Janssen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill.

 

Without spending another penny, we return Giolito, Story, Whitlock and Liam (assuming he doen't pitch much this year).

 

Maybe the budget is $220 M instead of $240M.

 

How can we not be competitive if we're allowed $80M for new aquisitions?

[Maxbialystock]

The 2019 Rotation (look at the names!)

3.81 ERod 34 GS

4.28 Price 22

4.40 Sale 25

5.52 Porcello 32

5.99 Eovaldi 12

 

5.43 Velazquez 8

6.02 Johnson 7

6.20 Cashner 6

7.36 Chacin 5

 

2018 WS Champs:

2.11 Sale 27

3.58 Price 30

3.82 ERod 23

4.17 Johnson 13

4.28 Porcello 33

 

3.33 Nate 11

6.08 Pom 11

3.18 Velazquez 8

 

Fantastic comparison!!! Brilliant!!!

 

That one post/page demonstrates why/how John Henry came to see big bucks for pitchers as fool's gold. The 2019 Sox payroll was the highest in MLB and actually needed to go up by at least another $50M if JH wanted to keep Mookie (for whom the Dodgers were happy to get in a bidding war) and to replace Price and Sale, who were fading fast.

 

The combined salaries of the current Sox rotation are less than Jansen's salary of $16M.

[Bellhorn04]

Fantastic comparison!!! Brilliant!!!

 

That one post/page demonstrates why/how John Henry came to see big bucks for pitchers as fool's gold. The 2019 Sox payroll was the highest in MLB and actually needed to go up by at least another $50M if JH wanted to keep Mookie (for whom the Dodgers were happy to get in a bidding war) and to replace Price and Sale, who were fading fast.

 

The combined salaries of the current Sox rotation are less than Jansen's salary of $16M.

 

Right. But Pivetta will be gone next year unless they sign him to a new contract, and the price tag for Houck and Crawford will keep going up. It's a constant financial juggling act on a high wire.

[Maxbialystock]

Fantastic comparison!!! Brilliant!!!

 

That one post/page demonstrates why/how John Henry came to see big bucks for pitchers as fool's gold. The 2019 Sox payroll was the highest in MLB and actually needed to go up by at least another $50M if JH wanted to keep Mookie (for whom the Dodgers were happy to get in a bidding war) and to replace Price and Sale, who were fading fast.

 

The combined salaries of the current Sox rotation are less than Jansen's salary of $16M.

 

And let's please, please not forget that right now the Sox are paying $17M to Sale, who is pitching well for the Braves, and also paying $38M for one season--he's out for this season--of Giolito. That's right, folks. The Sox are paying $55M for one season of Giolito and whatever they can get from Grissom, who so far has looked awful.

 

JH fired DD because DD said the highest payroll in MLB wasn't nearly enough. He fired CB because he was probably in over his head as a CBO. And right now Craig Breslow is the primary owner of the Sale/Giolito/Grissom deal. He is responsible for none of the guys--Duran, Abreu, Casas, Hamilton, Rafaela, Wong--who have come up from Worcester and actually helped the big club. Nor has Breslow brought in the guys currently in Portland and Worcester who are expected to help the big club.

[moonslav59]

Reminder. We are $106M under $240M cap for 2025.

 

We lose Janssen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill.

 

Without spending another penny, we return Giolito, Story, Whitlock and Liam (assuming he doen't pitch much this year).

 

Maybe the budget is $220 M instead of $240M.

 

How can we not be competitive if we're allowed $80M for new aquisitions?

 

That's how I see it. Replacing the 2024 Jansen and Pivetta may not be easy. Finding another O'Neill at $6M and a '24 Martin at $8M should not be hard.

 

At minimum, I see us needing a solid SP ($20-25M), a closer ($10-15M) and a RHB ($5-15M.) That should be able to be done, well, with $40-60M. We could add a second solid SP'er or middle IF'er for $20M and get 4 solid players for $80M.

 

Even if we get nothing from Mayer, Anthony and Teel, we should be much better. The problem is, JH might not even want to spend $20-50M.

[Maxbialystock]

Reminder. We are $106M under $240M cap for 2025.

 

We lose Janssen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill.

 

Without spending another penny, we return Giolito, Story, Whitlock and Liam (assuming he doen't pitch much this year).

 

Maybe the budget is $220 M instead of $240M.

 

How can we not be competitive if we're allowed $80M for new aquisitions?

 

Ahem. Giolito and Story are both unmitigated disasters in terms value for salary. Plus Giolito and Whitlock both went under the knife for a quicker version of TJ surgery, so we have no idea what they will bring to the team next year.

 

If I'm JH, I'm asking Breslow why the Sox should spend another $80M or so if they are so absolutely rotten at acquiring good players from other teams.

[Nick]

Ahem. Giolito and Story are both unmitigated disasters in terms value for salary. Plus Giolito and Whitlock both went under the knife for a quicker version of TJ surgery, so we have no idea what they will bring to the team next year.

 

If I'm JH, I'm asking Breslow why the Sox should spend another $80M or so if they are so absolutely rotten at acquiring good players from other teams.

 

My point was Story, Giolito, Whitlock and Liam are all sunken costs. Their payroll is already baked in the $106M figure I mentioned.

 

Your last comment is very valid and one we'll find out this winter.

[moonslav59]

My point was Story, Giolito, Whitlock and Liam are all sunken costs. Their payroll is already baked in the $106M figure I mentioned.

 

Your last comment is very valid and one we'll find out this winter.

 

Brez has not had a big signing, yet, unless you count Gio.

 

The thing about spending $20-25M on good FAs is that you rarely get that for 1-2 years. JH may not approve a 3-6 year deal at that AAV.

 

That dooms us to 1-2 year lower level FAs like Gio.

[Nick]

That's how I see it. Replacing the 2024 Jansen and Pivetta may not be easy. Finding another O'Neill at $6M and a '24 Martin at $8M should not be hard.

 

At minimum, I see us needing a solid SP ($20-25M), a closer ($10-15M) and a RHB ($5-15M.) That should be able to be done, well, with $40-60M. We could add a second solid SP'er or middle IF'er for $20M and get 4 solid players for $80M.

 

Even if we get nothing from Mayer, Anthony and Teel, we should be much better. The problem is, JH might not even want to spend $20-50M.

 

Everything I read points to Sox dumping Janssen. Reading between the lines, they'd want to see Hendriks fill that closer's role. To me, they see Liam following O'Neill's medicals history. Of course the problem is O'Neill despite his hot start, got hurt again and looks very susceptible to injuries. Well see how Liam does when he returns in August/September. It seems we are always 'hopeful' when players are coming off injuries.

 

To think we could go through 25' on the cheap by starting Houck, Kutter, Bello, Whitlock, Criswell and Fitts. I bet that gets JH excited. LOL

[moonslav59]

Everything I read points to Sox dumping Janssen. Reading between the lines, they'd want to see Hendriks fill that closer's role. To me, they see Liam following O'Neill's medicals history. Of course the problem is O'Neill despite his hot start, got hurt again and looks very susceptible to injuries. Well see how Liam does when he returns in August/September. It seems we are always 'hopeful' when players are coming off injuries.

 

To think we could go through 25' on the cheap by starting Houck, Kutter, Bello, Whitlock, Criswell and Fitts. I bet that gets JH excited. LOL

 

I’m fearful JH is never going to spend big again or is waiting to spend once all the kids are showing they are 1-2 big players away.

 

I’m thinking 2025, but I doubt he agrees.

[Maxbialystock]

Right. But Pivetta will be gone next year unless they sign him to a new contract, and the price tag for Houck and Crawford will keep going up. It's a constant financial juggling act on a high wire.

 

Agree completely. If I understand them correctly, the Rays system is to sign them long term early, before they become expensive, or to let them go when they become free agents--or trade them a year or two early. They signed Wander Franco early and long, but unfortunately it seems he's pond scum.

[moonslav59]

Everything I read points to Sox dumping Janssen.

 

I never realized Janssen was Swedish.