A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Think Grissom trade.

 

As far as I can tell, Sale has a 5.50 ERA in his last 3 starts (with a 2.65 FIP).

 

Two of them were very good.

 

Yes, he had one very bad start.

[moonslav59]

As far as I can tell, Sale has a 5.50 ERA in his last 3 starts (with a 2.65 FIP).

 

Two of them were very good.

 

Yes, he had one very bad start.

 

I coulda sworn the numbers I gave was what B-R had over his last 18 IP, but you are right.

 

Take away Pivetta's worst game and he has a 2.54 ERA- worth only low prospect, according to MVP.

[moonslav59]

OAA 28th percentile

Arm 10th percentile

-1 Fielding Runs (-3 last year)

 

He's been better on D. Better than sucky is not saying he's good.

 

He's already at over 2/3 of the innings as 2023.

 

dWAR o.o v -0.5 in '23 (B-R)

DRS: -1 vs -6 in '23

UZR/150: +5.1 v -7.4 in '23

OAA (fangraphs): -1 v -4 in '23

 

Looks considerably better but still not good,

[mvp 78]

I coulda sworn the numbers I gave was what B-R had over his last 18 IP, but you are right.

 

Take away Pivetta's worst game and he has a 2.54 ERA- worth only low prospect, according to MVP.

 

That's not what I said, but ok.

[moonslav59]

That's not what I said, but ok.

 

Pivetta: minor league arms, 15-20 on a team's prospect list maybe

[mvp 78]

Pivetta: minor league arms, 15-20 on a team's prospect list maybe

 

You said "low prospect." If they were trading for multiple arms as the post you quoted suggests, then yes.

[moonslav59]

You said "low prospect." If they were trading for multiple arms as the post you quoted suggests, then yes.

 

I suggested 2 or 3 players for a prospect or two. I'm not seeing how that suggests Pivetta for 2 prospects.

 

My post:

 

What can we realistically get for Pivetta & Jansen?

 

We could maybe add O'Neill and Martin, if they are showing value, or even McGuire, if a team needs a catcher or back-up catcher.

 

Maybe a package of Pivetta, Jansen and McGuire can get us a decent ML ready prospect or two.

 

You replied on Pivetta only as a 15-20 prospect "maybe."

 

Sounds low to me.

Edited June 10, 2024 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I suggested 2 or 3 players for a prospect or two. I'm not seeing how that suggests Pivetta for 2 prospects.

 

My post:

 

What can we realistically get for Pivetta & Jansen?

 

We could maybe add O'Neill and Martin, if they are showing value, or even McGuire, if a team needs a catcher or back-up catcher.

 

Maybe a package of Pivetta, Jansen and McGuire can get us a decent ML ready prospect or two.

 

You replied on Pivetta only as a 15-20 prospect "maybe."

 

Sounds low to me.

 

minor league arms, 15-20 on a team's prospect list maybe

 

In my initial response, I didn't say A 15-20 prospect.

[dgalehouse]

The Dodgers and the Yankees just completed a three game series in The Bronx. Three huge, sellout crowds. Plenty of excitement. World Series atmosphere. Star power galore. National TV. That is where we used to be. That is what we are missing. That is what we want to get back to. We don't want to hear that our expectations are unrealistic. We don't want an annual " wait 'til next year." Or that the future is bright because we have three kids who are doing pretty well in AA Ball. Two months into the season, we don't want the main topic of conversation to be " who can we sell off at the deadline ?" What we do want is an ownership and management team that is doing everything it can to get this team back to where it was six years ago. The Boston Red Sox are one of the most valuable franchises in MLB. Not some small market, small time Charlies. They need to start acting like it again. The expectations should be high.

[moonslav59]

minor league arms, 15-20 on a team's prospect list maybe

 

In my initial response, I didn't say A 15-20 prospect.

 

Then what does your 15-20 mean?

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers and the Yankees just completed a three game series in The Bronx. Three huge, sellout crowds. Plenty of excitement. World Series atmosphere. Star power galore. National TV. That is where we used to be. That is what we are missing. That is what we want to get back to. We don't want to hear that our expectations are unrealistic. We don't want an annual " wait 'til next year." Or that the future is bright because we have three kids who are doing pretty well in AA Ball. Two months into the season, we don't want the main topic of conversation to be " who can we sell off at the deadline ?" What we do want is an ownership and management team that is doing everything it can to get this team back to where it was six years ago. The Boston Red Sox are one of the most valuable franchises in MLB. Not some small market, small time Charlies. They need to start acting like it again. The expectations should be high.

 

Expect all you want, but expectations should be tied to reality, and the reality is, JH ain't spending.

 

Wish for it, want it, pray for it, believe we can and should do it, but expecting it is denying the reality.

[dannycater]

The only way to answer JH not spending is fans need to stop going to Fenway and stop buying Sox merchandise, start buying PawSox stuff instead.

[dannycater]

JH made the Sox into a business...it won 4 titles to be the Best in the Business between 2004-2018. Then like some businesses, it only mattered that the logo on the product was more important than the quality on the field. Quality costs money. So Sox are a just a business now. Not taking away from what the baseball people are trying to do in Breslow and Cora...just they are hamstrung by this business model.

[dannycater]

I'm impressed that the small fan base in here keeps talking like the Sox are relevant. I used to follow the team religiously and then I realized Henry is treating this like a business only. I guess the price paid for past winning/success...not defending JH, just saying he killed it for a lot of long-time fans. Just killed the hopes/expectations and the star power. Wiped it out.

[dgalehouse]

John Henry made his fortune in hedge funds. I don't know much about that world, but maybe that is how they operate.

[moonslav59]

I'm impressed that the small fan base in here keeps talking like the Sox are relevant. I used to follow the team religiously and then I realized Henry is treating this like a business only. I guess the price paid for past winning/success...not defending JH, just saying he killed it for a lot of long-time fans. Just killed the hopes/expectations and the star power. Wiped it out.

 

It was treated like a business before JH, too. Maybe more so, at times.

 

They never made that one key big purchase to get us over the top. They chose to stay just good enough to keep fan interest.

[moonslav59]

I hate no game days.

[dgalehouse]

John Henry is not a baseball guy. He can't evaluate ballplayers. That is the G.M.s job. Henry just has to sign the checks. Lately he has become reluctant to do so.

[dannycater]

It was treated like a business before JH, too. Maybe more so, at times.

 

They never made that one key big purchase to get us over the top. They chose to stay just good enough to keep fan interest.

 

Absolutely. Hurt some of their better teams to not have the extra star pitcher, extra star hitter.

[moonslav59]

John Henry is not a baseball guy. He can't evaluate ballplayers. That is the G.M.s job. Henry just has to sign the checks. Lately he has become reluctant to do so.

 

Players have gone unpaid?

[dannycater]

Absolutely. Hurt some of their better teams to not have the extra star pitcher, extra star hitter.

 

Problem or maybe the difference between pre-Henry and now-Henry is that he established a win first mentality at least it seemed that way even if 2013 was just a bit of good chemistry and not collection of great players much but with great pitching and clutch veterans. Seemed certainly 04,07, and 18 were by products of spending money and having good to great players in the fold including the Killer B's outfield and having good pitching. But past-Henry was about winning to me even with some of the signing flops...this now-Henry is disappointing. It's like you established a big market, winning approach and then disbanded it. So it makes it worse.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely. Hurt some of their better teams to not have the extra star pitcher, extra star hitter.

 

How many times were we pretty close to the Yanks, and not only did we not get the big prize FA, the Yanks did, and pulled 2 stars ahead.

[Duran Is The Man]

I think they've offered him a contract and he's turned it down. He's either going to LA or back to tv for a little bit. He's going to get PAID if he takes a coaching gig.

 

wouldn't be surprised if the contract Henry offered him was for $50K and some Sonic coupons.

[notin]

wouldn't be surprised if the contract Henry offered him was for $50K and some Sonic coupons.

 

I mean, depending on the Sonic coupons…

[Randy Red Sox]

I hate no game days.

 

me too

[notin]

John Henry is not a baseball guy. He can't evaluate ballplayers. That is the G.M.s job. Henry just has to sign the checks. Lately he has become reluctant to do so.

 

I think the problem is John Henry IS a baseball guy, something corroborated but numerous former employees.

 

And as he is a baseball guy, he has decided it makes more sense to build his team to capitalize on metrics as opposed to just building it with financial capital.

 

I mean, he did fire John Farrell after back to back division titles and replaced him with the extremely metric-savvy Alex Cora for a reason, and I doubt that reason related to the entire “winning in spite of him” nonsense.

 

Henry has reached the point where he can win by spending or win by metrics. The latter is more difficult but it’s cheaper and easier to undo or redo…

[moonslav59]

I mean, depending on the Sonic coupons…

 

Lifetime burger and shake coupon?

[moonslav59]

I think the problem is John Henry IS a baseball guy, something corroborated but numerous former employees.

 

And as he is a baseball guy, he has decided it makes more sense to build his team to capitalize on metrics as opposed to just building it with financial capital.

 

I mean, he did fire John Farrell after back to back division titles and replaced him with the extremely metric-savvy Alex Cora for a reason, and I doubt that reason related to the entire “winning in spite of him” nonsense.

 

Henry has reached the point where he can win by spending or win by metrics. The latter is more difficult but it’s cheaper and easier to undo or redo…

 

I'm not convinced he will never spend again, either, but I'm not counting on it, ever again.

 

[notin]

Lifetime burger and shake coupon?

 

 

Fries included?

[moonslav59]

Fries included?

 

That's a separate coupon to be negotiated.