A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

Is DHam for real?

 

If yes, what a nice surprise!

 

MLB.com:

 

David Hamilton hits home run in Red Sox win against White Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

CHICAGO -- A typically even-keeled David Hamilton showed a bit of emotion when he reached second base in the ninth inning Sunday at Guaranteed Rate Field, emphatically clapping his hands. The Red Sox were down 4-3 when Hamilton led off the ninth with that double. After stealing third base, he

 

His minor league numbers 2021-2023 at 650 PAs:

 

.251 20 72 (.346/.420/.766)

60 xbhs

26 2Bs

13 3Bs

90 SBs

 

His defense is real s*** that's for sure.

[mvp 78]

Hamilton is well below average on every Statcast metric except chase rate.

 

Since 4/25:

 

862 OPS

397 BABIP (career 306 MiLB BABIP)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Exactly what aspect of post #4526 are you challenging?

 

I said the 2016 and 2017 teams 1) won only 93 games and that 2) it’s not exactly a commanding total (supported by it being the lowest total in the history of the current AL East) and 3) it was probably a statement about the AL East at the time. And it is, that through a three year stretch, the lowest total in current division history was reached also the maximum for wins. Now the division was improving, since in 2018 you had the 108 win Red Sox, the 100 win Yankees, and the 90 win Rays.

 

Not sure how any of this gets refuted by the run differential of the 2016 team…

 

It's interesting that in 2018, the improving AL East also included the pitiful Orioles, who lost 115 games. The most anyone in the division lost in '16 was Tampa, with 94 Ls.

 

But if a bad team's record suffers by a schedule with more games vs. good clubs, then isn't the reverse also true -- that a 100-win team pads its total by getting to play so many vs. a 100-loss club? For example, the AL Central circa '18-19 -- when three different teams lost at least 100 -- may have boosted Minnesota to a deceptive 101-win season (the Twins were exposed, as usual, in a playoff sweep by the Yankees).

 

While 90 Ws doesn't always win a division crown, most years it at least keeps you in contention into the final month of the season. Can we all agree the strongest year for the AL East was 2021, when four teams won at least 91?

[Nick]

They will try to sell us on:

 

Tanner

Gio

Kutter

Bello

Fitts

 

I don't think I can 'buy' what they're selling. We need 3 Tanners and that ain't it.

[moonslav59]

With Casas returning at some point and Story next year, I think our offense will be effective, just need to find a right handed bat for DH.

 

I'm just not sure how we're going to assemble our starting rotation.

 

There's only three ways to do it, trade, free agency or promote from within. Current regime appears not to be interested spending big money on a free agent.

 

 

At the current rate, we have following.

 

1 Tanner

2

3

4 Bello/Kutter

5 Kutter/Bello

 

The team won't be any better unless we fill in the blank. (I know, I know, I'm stating the obvious)

 

I totally agree.

 

We need to add 2 solid SP'ers. No injury rehabs. No hopes for returns to former glory.

 

We need two proven and durable SP'ers. (Of course even durable, solid SP'ers can decline of get hurt, at any given moment, but we have to try.

 

The thing is, it's long odds we even add one.

[moonslav59]

His defense is real s*** that's for sure.

 

No doubt. His speed does not help on D.

[moonslav59]

They will try to sell us on:

 

Tanner

Gio

Kutter

Bello

Fitts

 

Nobody but our delusional FO will buy this plan.

[mvp 78]

Nobody but our delusional FO will buy this plan.

 

You just have unrealistic expectations for this starting rotation, moon.

[Nick]

Nobody but our delusional FO will buy this plan.

 

We are under the cap by $106M for 2025 with following FA to be gone.

 

Janssen, Martin, Pivetta, O'Neill, Smith/Cooper, McGuire are 'major' payrolls coming off.

 

We have Giolito and Liam Hendriks/Whitlock coming back. And let's not forget Story.

 

There will be some arbitration money that will eat up some of that cap space.

 

I've said this before, the budget for 2025 will tell us all about our organization's intent going forward.

 

This was year of discovery, and I think we've all seen enough to come up with the core group.

 

We need to add pieces to make us playoff bound, no not contenders. We need to join the major players in AL East, New York and Baltimore.

 

Hell, we have $100M to do it.

[notin]

I don't think I can 'buy' what they're selling. We need 3 Tanners and that ain't it.

 

So… Tanner Scott? Tanner Bibee? Tanner Banks? Dig up Tanner Roark?

[moonslav59]

You just have unrealistic expectations for this starting rotation, moon.

 

Not at all. I expect we add no SP'er.

 

I want 2. Big difference.

[mvp 78]

Not at all. I expect we add no SP'er.

 

I want 2. Big difference.

 

I was making a John Henry reference.

[dannycater]

Kind of enjoying this .500 squad...what's not to like, they got Devers...did I say they have Devers? They got the best foreign buy buck for buck in Yoshida..when did he last play again? What position? They dumped Sale in a great move to get rid of deadweight from rotation..8-2, 3.01 ERA and really that one bad start affected that mark..don't want that...but still have Story and his big contract...140 million got you 145 games, .229, 19 HR, 84 RBI...and thank our lucky stars we did get Verdugo (Yanks), Not Quite Jeter Downs, and Wong (at least he matches up for starpower) for Betts. That was brilliance not paying him and saving money for Story. Again, what's not to like for Sox. The environment has changed with Cora showing that 2018 was not a one-hit wonder for him. Anyway, Go Sox!

[moonslav59]

I was making a John Henry reference.

 

I get it. Good one.

 

We'll be lucky if we guess right on a Lorenzen type signing and another O'Neill type who maybe stays healthy.

[moonslav59]

Kind of enjoying this .500 squad...what's not to like, they got Devers...did I say they have Devers? They got the best foreign buy buck for buck in Yoshida..when did he last play again? What position? They dumped Sale in a great move to get rid of deadweight from rotation..8-2, 3.01 ERA and really that one bad start affected that mark..don't want that...but still have Story and his big contract...140 million got you 145 games, .229, 19 HR, 84 RBI...and thank our lucky stars we did get Verdugo (Yanks), Not Quite Jeter Downs, and Wong (at least he matches up for starpower) for Betts. That was brilliance not paying him and saving money for Story. Again, what's not to like for Sox. The environment has changed with Cora showing that 2018 was not a one-hit wonder for him. Anyway, Go Sox!

 

Yoshida played, last night...

 

 

with Woo.

[mvp 78]

Kind of enjoying this .500 squad...what's not to like, they got Devers...did I say they have Devers? They got the best foreign buy buck for buck in Yoshida..when did he last play again? What position? They dumped Sale in a great move to get rid of deadweight from rotation..8-2, 3.01 ERA and really that one bad start affected that mark..don't want that...but still have Story and his big contract...140 million got you 145 games, .229, 19 HR, 84 RBI...and thank our lucky stars we did get Verdugo (Yanks), Not Quite Jeter Downs, and Wong (at least he matches up for starpower) for Betts. That was brilliance not paying him and saving money for Story. Again, what's not to like for Sox. The environment has changed with Cora showing that 2018 was not a one-hit wonder for him. Anyway, Go Sox!

 

Sox are very happy with the return they got for Verdugo at least (Fitts, Weissert, Judice).

[dannycater]

Yes, everyone is happy with the Sox minor league system as so many are playing at the MLB level right now.

[mvp 78]

Yoshida played, last night...

 

 

with Woo.

 

393 OPS with WOO. H, BB, 2 K. A few lazy flyouts, weak groundball outs, 2 K's from a guy with a 7.67 k/9. The normal Masa experience. He's ready.

[moonslav59]

Sox are very happy with the return they got for Verdugo at least (Fitts, Weissert, Judice).

 

While O'Neill has spent too much time on the IL, I don't think we are missing Robertson and Santos all that much.

 

While I Campbell has not impressed, his future is brighter than Urias, who is at .580 and loses team control in 4 months.

 

Don't look now, but guess who is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA in his last 3 starts?

 

(Still better than Gio, Crawford, Bello and Criswell over the same timeframe.)

[moonslav59]

Yes, everyone is happy with the Sox minor league system as so many are playing at the MLB level right now.

 

They have carried the ML team, so yes.

 

Even guys like DHam, Romy and Kelly have done pretty well.

 

Our big 3 are holding their own.

 

We've seen big jumps from Perales, K Campbell and Lugo.

 

Hard to be unhappy.

 

Abreu

Rafaela

Slaten

 

Hell, even EValdez is starting to wake up.

[Bellhorn04]

Don't look now, but guess who is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA in his last 3 starts?

 

(Still better than Gio, Crawford, Bello and Criswell over the same timeframe.)

 

The suspense is killing me, who is it and why does it matter?

[mvp 78]

While O'Neill has spent too much time on the IL, I don't think we are missing Robertson and Santos all that much.

 

While I Campbell has not impressed, his future is brighter than Urias, who is at .580 and loses team control in 4 months.

 

Don't look now, but guess who is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA in his last 3 starts?

 

(Still better than Gio, Crawford, Bello and Criswell over the same timeframe.)

 

Campbell was good at the start of the season. Got injured and fell off. He's been pitching great in AAA after rehabbing the injury. He'll be good if he gets the call again.

[mvp 78]

The suspense is killing me, who is it and why does it matter?

 

I couldn't figure it out either.

[mvp 78]

Hell, even EValdez is starting to wake up.

 

Since returning to BOS at the end of May:

 

8 G

1096 OPS

222 BABIP

3 HR

8 RBI

5 R

3 K

2 BB

 

Ride the hot streak for now.

[moonslav59]

The suspense is killing me, who is it and why does it matter?

 

Think Grissom trade.

[moonslav59]

Since returning to BOS at the end of May:

 

8 G

1096 OPS

222 BABIP

3 HR

8 RBI

5 R

3 K

2 BB

 

Ride the hot streak for now.

 

EValdez was one of the minor leagues top hitters for a sizable stretch with HOU. This may not be a fluke.

 

He also did not look as awful on D as he did in '23.

[Duran Is The Man]

Kind of enjoying this .500 squad...what's not to like, they got Devers...did I say they have Devers? They got the best foreign buy buck for buck in Yoshida..when did he last play again? What position? They dumped Sale in a great move to get rid of deadweight from rotation..8-2, 3.01 ERA and really that one bad start affected that mark..don't want that...but still have Story and his big contract...140 million got you 145 games, .229, 19 HR, 84 RBI...and thank our lucky stars we did get Verdugo (Yanks), Not Quite Jeter Downs, and Wong (at least he matches up for starpower) for Betts. That was brilliance not paying him and saving money for Story. Again, what's not to like for Sox. The environment has changed with Cora showing that 2018 was not a one-hit wonder for him. Anyway, Go Sox!

 

and unless JH opens his wallet, there is no way in hell Cora sticks around after this season. and who could blame him? f*** John Henry.

[mvp 78]

Think Grissom trade.

 

1 - 7 Innings 1 ER

2 - 4 Innings 8 ER

3 - 7 Innings 2 ER

 

Seems like just 1 bad game? Of course if we gave up 8 earned to the A's, we'd lose our minds. Would make sense if the Sox were a game above .500 though.

[mvp 78]

and unless JH opens his wallet, there is no way in hell Cora sticks around after this season. and who could blame him? f*** John Henry.

 

I think they've offered him a contract and he's turned it down. He's either going to LA or back to tv for a little bit. He's going to get PAID if he takes a coaching gig.

[mvp 78]

EValdez was one of the minor leagues top hitters for a sizable stretch with HOU. This may not be a fluke.

 

He also did not look as awful on D as he did in '23.

 

OAA 28th percentile

Arm 10th percentile

-1 Fielding Runs (-3 last year)