A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

More irony is that Henry is obviously pissed about the "full throttle" thing becoming such a hot button, and then he goes and serves up "unrealistic expectations" as a new hot button.

 

YES!

 

And statements like "full throttle" and others before that, were reasons why some fans had high or higher expectations than we should have.

[notin]

C'mon man, Teoscar has an OPS+ of 134. I wouldn't have brought him up just because of the granny.

 

It was admittedly an attention-getter.

 

But the guy is having a pretty respectable career.

 

And like you say, he's a wee bit more durable than the guy we got.

 

The durability is nice.

 

O’Neill is a better defender, which is also nice.

 

But at the end of the day, the best ability is availability…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Henry is wrong.

 

Diehard Red Sox fans who closely follow this team all year -- like almost every poster on talksox -- have very realistic expectations at this point in his ownership.

[notin]

YES!

 

And statements like "full throttle" and others before that, were reasons why some fans had high or higher expectations than we should have.

 

 

I like the cause/effect relationship there.

 

But most important, Sox fans really don’t expect titles every year. I’ve been a Sox fan for a long time, and I’ve never heard a single one refer to a season as a wasted year because they didn’t win the trophy.

 

We just want the Sox to try. Not even to compete, but at least to try yo compete. Heck, my only other expectation is “don’t do anything stupid.” That’s not hard, either…

[Bellhorn04]

YES!

 

And statements like "full throttle" and others before that, were reasons why some fans had high or higher expectations than we should have.

 

Henry's ill-chosen words further highlight the stunning lack of PR savvy in the guys running this team now.

[moonslav59]

C'mon man, Teoscar has an OPS+ of 134. I wouldn't have brought him up just because of the granny.

 

It was admittedly an attention-getter.

 

But the guy is having a pretty respectable career.

 

And like you say, he's a wee bit more durable than the guy we got.

 

He's not known for his defense and does not have a GG like O'Neill. O'Neill also has an OPS+ of 137 in 189 PAs (6th on the Sox.)

 

Teoscar has 90 more PAs (4th on his team,) which of course has enormous value. We knew we were rolling the dice on O'Neill's health. He's played in just over 2/3 of the team's games. If Ref wasn't doing so well, it would have hurt more than it has, but we do need O'Neill's RHB in the line-up, along with Refs.

 

Had the savings of adding O'Neill over Teoscar been actually used on adding someone else- like Imanaga instead of Gio or Gio and Flaherty, then it would be more understandable, but sadly we stay way under the tax line.

[Bellhorn04]

He's not known for his defense and does not have a GG like O'Neill. O'Neill also has an OPS+ of 137 in 189 PAs (6th on the Sox.)

 

Teoscar has 90 more PAs (4th on his team,) which of course has enormous value. We knew we were rolling the dice on O'Neill's health. He's played in just over 2/3 of the team's games. If Ref wasn't doing so well, it would have hurt more than it has, but we do need O'Neill's RHB in the line-up, along with Refs.

 

Had the savings of adding O'Neill over Teoscar been actually used on adding someone else- like Imanaga instead of Gio or Gio and Flaherty, then it would be more understandable, but sadly we stay way under the tax line.

 

O'Neill is banged up again. He's one of those guys always threatening to be on the IL. That was evident the last couple of seasons but we bit anyway, because he came cheap.

[moonslav59]

Henry is wrong.

 

Diehard Red Sox fans who closely follow this team all year -- like almost every poster on talksox -- have very realistic expectations at this point in his ownership.

 

Indeed.

 

In the past, some/most did expect him to spend more after the dip in 2020, but now, we expect that he can spend more money but chooses not to. That is not unrealistic.

 

We look at a pretty solid core of young players and expect that a caring owner might want to do something about filling some gaps by throwing money at them, but we know our owner is choosing stingy greed, instead.

 

I still hope he spends more, this winter or next, not I'm not hopeful.

[Bellhorn04]

Some are pointing at RedBird Capital as the real culprit in the Sox recent penny-pinching. RedBird bought 10% of FSG in 2021 when FSG needed a cash infusion because of COVID losses.

[moonslav59]

I like the cause/effect relationship there.

 

But most important, Sox fans really don’t expect titles every year. I’ve been a Sox fan for a long time, and I’ve never heard a single one refer to a season as a wasted year because they didn’t win the trophy.

 

We just want the Sox to try. Not even to compete, but at least to try yo compete. Heck, my only other expectation is “don’t do anything stupid.” That’s not hard, either…

 

In all fairness, though, we would not have all these last place finishes, if we hadn't swung and missed at such a high rate on our largest signings and extensions since Sale/Nate. I know you think our miss rate is close to the league average, but I disagree.

 

I'm not defending JH by saying this. He can and should have at least spent to just below the tax line. He may be looking at the high failure rate on signings and think, "Why bother?"

[moonslav59]

O'Neill is banged up again. He's one of those guys always threatening to be on the IL. That was evident the last couple of seasons but we bit anyway, because he came cheap.

 

Yes, that was the obvious save money option. Even the Gio signing was financed, mostly on money saved by dumping Sale, Urias and Dugo.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not defending JH by saying this. He can and should have at least spent to just below the tax line. He may be looking at the high failure rate on signings and think, "Why bother?"

 

He may just be saying that to echo all the Sox fans who no longer flock to his House of Snorers.

[Nick]

RBI + Runs- HR

 

61 Duran

59 Rafaela

54 Devers

42 Abreu

39 O'Neill

37 Wong

 

 

Not sure why all the negativity about Rafaela.

 

I thought because of his defense, which is superior, we'd just let him bat ninth and work out his chase rate. I think he is doing exactly what we though he'd do.

 

It appears we have found our leadoff man. Cora loves him there.

 

There will be ups and downs offensively, but Wong as a second year catcher is a keeper. Maybe Teel will be a better option, then we have two major league catchers.

 

The nice thing about the duo (wong/teel) is that they can both play other positions and they can both be in the lineup at the same time.

 

I think Abreu is a keeper. Duran, Rafaela and Abreu comprise nice outfield. We bitch about our defense, well that's a good defensive outfield.

 

OUR PROBLEM IS CASAS IS ON THE BENCH. WE ALSO NEED A DH THAT CAN MATCH DEVERS/CASAS OFFENSIVE OUTPUT. OUR BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYERS SHOULD BE OUR 3B, 1B AND DH. RIGHT NOW WE ONLY HAVE ONE AND THAT'S A KILLER. We can't overcome that with weakness at ss/2b.

 

Finally, we need ss/2b combo that's equal in offensive output as our outfield threesome.

 

Starting pitching is another matter.

 

This week we only trust Houck and Pivetta.

Edited June 9, 2024 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, that was the obvious save money option. Even the Gio signing was financed, mostly on money saved by dumping Sale, Urias and Dugo.

 

They fired their CBO after 2 78 win seasons, they talked big, they gave the new CBO a smaller budget to work with.

 

Little wonder so many were uninterested in Breslow's job.

[Randy Red Sox]

O'Neill is banged up again. He's one of those guys always threatening to be on the IL. That was evident the last couple of seasons but we bit anyway, because he came cheap.

 

that is our motto. they gotta come cheap

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure why all the negativity about Rafaela.

 

Everybody wants him to do well, and he has done some very good things.

 

But his MLB career K/BB of 93/12 is horrific. That kind of ratio generally spells doom.

[Randy Red Sox]

Yes, that was the obvious save money option. Even the Gio signing was financed, mostly on money saved by dumping Sale, Urias and Dugo.

 

very true Moon

[Bellhorn04]

And that's why the Sale trade pisses me off. Because my suspicion is the $10 million off the payroll was a huge factor in it happening.

[moonslav59]

Not sure why all the negativity about Rafaela.

 

I thought because of his defense, which is superior, we'd just let him bat ninth and work out his chase rate. I think he is doing exactly what we though he'd do.

 

It appears we have found our leadoff man. Cora loves him there.

 

There will be ups and downs offensively, but Wong as a second year catcher is a keeper. Maybe Teel will be a better option then we have two major league catchers.

 

The nice thing about the duo (wong/teel) is that they can both play other positions and they can both be in the lineup.

 

I think Abreu is a keeper. Duran, Rafaela and Abreu comprise nice outfield. We bitch about our defense, well that's a good defensive outfield.

 

OUR PROBLEM IS CASAS IS ON THE BENCH. WE ALSO NEED A DH THAT CAN MATCH DEVERS/CASAS OFFENSIVE OUTPUT. OUR BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYERS SHOULD BE OUR 3B, 1B AND DH. RIGHT NOW WE ONLY HAVE ONE AND THAT'S A KILLER. We can't overcome that with weakness at ss/2b.

 

Finally, we need ss/2b combo that's equal in offensive output as our outfield threesome.

 

Starting pitching is another matter.

 

This week we only trust Houck and Pivetta.

 

Ref has been hitting out of his mind, but we can't count on him for too much longer as our DH.

 

The return of Casas will help, but the middle infield (D & O) has hurt us, once again.

 

The rotation is regressing to the norm, but as of yet, nobody deserves a demotion.

 

ERA last 24 days:

1.38 Houck (actually getting better) .449 OPS Against

3.29 Pivetta (looking in form, again) .561

6.25 Bello .831

6.43 Crawford .787

6.45 Criswell .818

 

This looks like 3 holes in the making.

 

The pen has done its job, well.

[notin]

In all fairness, though, we would not have all these last place finishes, if we hadn't swung and missed at such a high rate on our largest signings and extensions since Sale/Nate. I know you think our miss rate is close to the league average, but I disagree.

 

I'm not defending JH by saying this. He can and should have at least spent to just below the tax line. He may be looking at the high failure rate on signings and think, "Why bother?"

 

I think our failure rate is probably average, but on more expensive signings it’s probably much worse. Sale, for example, was an unarguable flop. Some liked Eovaldi. Not sure why, given only one good season.

 

The higher money free agents are the ones that aren’t supposed to be gambles. They are only supposed to be risky through the length of their deals. But really, through bad luck or questionable decisions, how many have worked out since 2013, the one year they all did?

 

In the past 11 seasons, JD Martinez was a good signing. Others (Eovaldi) had moments. Most got injured or fell off real fast…

[Bellhorn04]

Ref has been hitting out of his mind, but we can't count on him for too much longer as our DH.

 

The return of Casas will help, but the middle infield (D & O) has hurt us, once again.

 

The rotation is regressing to the norm, but as of yet, nobody deserves a demotion.

 

ERA last 24 days:

1.38 Houck (actually getting better) .449 OPS Against

3.29 Pivetta (looking in form, again) .561

6.25 Bello .831

6.43 Crawford .787

6.45 Criswell .818

 

This looks like 3 holes in the making.

 

Make it 4 as soon as they trade Pivetta.

[moonslav59]

Everybody wants him to do well, and he has done some very good things.

 

But his MLB career K/BB of 93/12 is horrific. That kind of ratio generally spells doom.

 

It is very rare for free swingers to do well for a long career. He does have some power at about 20 HRs and 30 2B+3B per 650, but his .244 OBP (.254 career) is what hurts even more than all the Ks. 8 walks in 64 games is really, really bad.

 

His defense is spectacular, but he seems to lose focus and bumble plays, too often. I think that will improve, over time. I'm not sure the OBP can or will.

[moonslav59]

I think our failure rate is probably average, but on more expensive signings it’s probably much worse. Sale, for example, was an unarguable flop. Some liked Eovaldi. Not sure why, given only one good season.

 

The higher money free agents are the ones that aren’t supposed to be gambles. They are only supposed to be risky through the length of their deals. But really, through bad luck or questionable decisions, how many have worked out since 2013, the one year they all did?

 

In the past 11 seasons, JD Martinez was a good signing. Others (Eovaldi) had moments. Most got injured or fell off real fast…

 

I included the Bogey's extension, which with the opt-opt was really a 2 year add on control, but since I also counted Gio's, it seemed legit. Both were not major signings like Sale, Nate, Yoshi & Story, and the success rate on those is no where near the league average.

 

Had we just hit on Sale (4-5 seasons like he's doing now, we'd have been a much better team with a possible ring in '21.

 

IMO, we are oh for 4 on our top 4, but Nate was not bad.

 

From JH's point of view, perhaps this is why he wants to avoid more like them.

 

[notin]

And that's why the Sale trade pisses me off. Because my suspicion is the $10 million off the payroll was a huge factor in it happening.

 

Do you really think the $10mill payroll was a bigger factor than Sale’s completely absentee performance from 2020 through 2023??

 

That trade failed in multiple ways, but the clear goal was to replace Sale and his 40IP per year with Giolito, who has been averaging closer to 180 IP recently. They paid up to get a prospect they liked, and in the end spent $8mill more, since they re-invested all those savings almost immediately. After all, Giolito was signed only about 5 days after Sale was dealt…

[moonslav59]

Do you really think the $10mill payroll was a bigger factor than Sale’s completely absentee performance from 2020 through 2023??

 

That trade failed in multiple ways, but the clear goal was to replace Sale and his 40IP per year with Giolito, who has been averaging closer to 180 IP recently. They paid up to get a prospect they liked, and in the end spent $8mill more, since they re-invested all those savings almost immediately. After all, Giolito was signed only about 5 days after Sale was dealt…

 

The Dugo and Urias trades were before the Gio signing, too, but one could argue their money paid for O'Neill's contract, I guess.

 

Not sure the timing of the deals matters that much.

[notin]

I included the Bogey's extension, which with the opt-opt was really a 2 year add on control, but since I also counted Gio's, it seemed legit. Both were not major signings like Sale, Nate, Yoshi & Story, and the success rate on those is no where near the league average.

 

Had we just hit on Sale (4-5 seasons like he's doing now, we'd have been a much better team with a possible ring in '21.

 

IMO, we are oh for 4 on our top 4, but Nate was not bad.

 

From JH's point of view, perhaps this is why he wants to avoid more like them.

 

 

I look at the end of the 2019 season in which the Sox fell 24 games in the standings, still owed about $300mill to three pitchers in Price, Eovaldi and Sale who either had a long history of physical injuries or had plenty of injury troubles just beginning at that time, and the Sox never successfully locked up Mookie. On top of it all, the farm system had nothing in the way of immediate help. And while the Sox were coming off the most successful run in team history, two of those seasons the team only won 93 games, not exactly a commanding total and more of a statement about the AL East at the time.

 

If Henry didn’t decide to change direction at that point, he probably because he did it somewhat earlier.

 

The problem is, he just got too extreme. Tampa North certainly can work, but is better with a built up farm. Or in this case, even a mediocre one. But the issue isn’t that model, it’s how quickly the Sox thought they could implement it. And why they decided to start the “extend our star players” after letting Betts walk. It should have started there…

[Bellhorn04]

Do you really think the $10mill payroll was a bigger factor than Sale’s completely absentee performance from 2020 through 2023??

 

They could both have been big factors.

 

Kennedy said the payroll was going to be lower in 2024.

 

Sale was part of the reduction.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to think the $10 mill tipped the balance toward trading him.

[moonslav59]

I look at the end of the 2019 season in which the Sox fell 24 games in the standings, still owed about $300mill to three pitchers in Price, Eovaldi and Sale who either had a long history of physical injuries or had plenty of injury troubles just beginning at that time, and the Sox never successfully locked up Mookie. On top of it all, the farm system had nothing in the way of immediate help. And while the Sox were coming off the most successful run in team history, two of those seasons the team only won 93 games, not exactly a commanding total and more of a statement about the AL East at the time.

 

If Henry didn’t decide to change direction at that point, he probably because he did it somewhat earlier.

 

The problem is, he just got too extreme. Tampa North certainly can work, but is better with a built up farm. Or in this case, even a mediocre one. But the issue isn’t that model, it’s how quickly the Sox thought they could implement it. And why they decided to start the “extend our star players” after letting Betts walk. It should have started there…

 

I totally agree. (BTW, were also paying Porcello in 2019, but he was at the end of his extension.)

 

Many of us saw the writing on the wall, back then. The farm looked emptier than it turned out to be, but we still went 5 years with hardly any farm input. Not many teams, if any, have won a ring after a 5 year lull like that.

 

The choices to spend on Price, Sale, Porcello and Nate, instead of Betts and 2 or 3 of those pitchers was the biggest mistake, but the runaway spending and declining farm pointed to the unsustainability of the winning culture created under DD. It was a nice 3 year run.

 

The idea that JH could or would just continue throwing money at the holes in the roster would have cost a lot more than the Dodgers have been spending. The Dodgers never stopped getting farm input over the past 4-6 years. We stopped, after Devers, and although Houck, Casas, Bello and Duran were added to the roster about 5 years later, many did not hit the ground running, day one, or have had dips along the way.

 

Honestly, I don't expect JH to spend like the Dodger or the Yankees of old. I do think he coulda and shoulda spent more, but it would have taken a lot to bring another ring post 2018. Perhaps one strategic addition might have got us over the hump in '21, but who knows.

 

Keeping Betts would have helped, a lot, but without added spending beyond his contract, I doubt we'd have a ring after '18. Less last place finishes would be an improvement, for sure, but the whole Billy Bean saga shows that JH has always wanted to create a "Tampa North" type organization, as you and others aptly call it.

 

We should not be shocked. The real shock was more likely, the spending under DD.

[Bellhorn04]

I look at the end of the 2019 season in which the Sox fell 24 games in the standings, still owed about $300mill to three pitchers in Price, Eovaldi and Sale who either had a long history of physical injuries or had plenty of injury troubles just beginning at that time, and the Sox never successfully locked up Mookie. On top of it all, the farm system had nothing in the way of immediate help. And while the Sox were coming off the most successful run in team history, two of those seasons the team only won 93 games, not exactly a commanding total and more of a statement about the AL East at the time.

 

Nope, not buying the "only 93 wins".

 

93 is several more than a number of recent WS and pennant winners.

[Bellhorn04]

I totally agree. (BTW, were also paying Porcello in 2019, but he was at the end of his extension.)

 

Many of us saw the writing on the wall, back then. The farm looked emptier than it turned out to be, but we still went 5 years with hardly any farm input. Not many teams, if any, have won a ring after a 5 year lull like that.

 

The choices to spend on Price, Sale, Porcello and Nate, instead of Betts and 2 or 3 of those pitchers was the biggest mistake, but the runaway spending and declining farm pointed to the unsustainability of the winning culture created under DD. It was a nice 3 year run.

 

Isn't this kind of leaving out that in the next full season, 2021, the Sox made it to the ALCS?

 

Plus the 2022 and 2023 teams arguably had playoff shots with a few better moves.