A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Nick]

My ranking of hitters, potential starters

1 Devers

2 Casas

3 Abreu

4 Duran

5 Yoshida

6 Wong

7 TBD

8 Story

9 Rafaela

 

This is really bad, but today we have Duran, Wong and Rafaela in the lineup. Not a major league lineup. We're fooling ourselves about making the playoffs. And we're not even talking about the starting rotation as of today.

 

Sell, sell, sell.....Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, maybe even O'Neill if he can garner any return.

[moonslav59]

A big market, big time team with plenty of revenue , a storied history and a huge fan base should never, ever decide they want to emulate the Tampa Bay Rays . Tampa Bay North indeed. Worst idea in a very long time.

 

I don't think the idea was ever to spend as little as TB, but to try and do some of the things they do to keep the budget lower than it got to be under Theo, Ben & DD.

 

It is not something new with JH. I tried to get Billy Bean, as we all know.

 

We really need to have a big signing go right, for once. It's been a long time. (JD?)

[moonslav59]

My ranking of hitters, potential starters

1 Devers

2 Casas

3 Abreu

4 Duran

5 Yoshida

6 Wong

7 TBD

8 Story

9 Rafaela

 

This is really bad, but today we have Duran, Wong and Rafaela in the lineup. Not a major league lineup. We're fooling ourselves about making the playoffs. And we're not even talking about the starting rotation as of today.

 

Sell, sell, sell.....Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, maybe even O'Neill if he can garner any return.

 

I'd move Yoshida down a bit and add Ref around #6.

 

I'm not on the "sell wagon" just yet, but if we are 5 games over .500 (yea, right!) or under at the deadline, I'd trade all 4 FAs to be and think about trading McGuire, too (1 year left.)

[moonslav59]

Amazingly, we are just 1.5 from the WC, and nobody is between us.

 

Of course, we are also 1.5 games from being 11th in the AL, too.

 

We seem destined to end up at .500.

[moonslav59]

The next nine games will be a true test.

 

We may get Abreu, Grissom and or Yoshida back during the stretch, but it may not be enough.

 

Day off (My guess on who starts)

PHI (Crawford)

PHI (Pivetta)

PHI (Houck)

NYY (Criswell)

NYY (Bello)

NYY (Crawford

@TOR (Pivetta)

@TOR (Bello)

@TOR (Crawford)

 

[notin]

I'd move Yoshida down a bit and add Ref around #6.

 

I'm not on the "sell wagon" just yet, but if we are 5 games over .500 (yea, right!) or under at the deadline, I'd trade all 4 FAs to be and think about trading McGuire, too (1 year left.)

 

 

I never want the team to sell. But I do understand that is the right horse sometimes.

 

I just hope Breslow does something…

[notin]

What I'm saying is, any year in which the second place team had 92 wins or less, 93 wins would have sufficed.

 

I get what you’re saying, but you’re not correct. You’re trying to discount better first place teams as part of the overall strength of the division. “The 2021 Rays could have won the division with 93 wins.” But they won 100, and their presence as a 100 win team did make the AL East stronger that year. There was no such team in 2016 and 2017…

[moonslav59]

I never want the team to sell. But I do understand that is the right horse sometimes.

 

I just hope Breslow does something…

 

I can't see him doing both lanes, unless the "buy" is someone signed beyond 2024.

 

Even with Casas and everyone else staying healthy, I just don't see this team going far, if we happen to make the playoffs.

 

I think he can get something of value for Pivetta and Jansen, and if Martin and O'Neill look good in July, maybe something for them, too.

 

I'm not sure get prospects or players that will help in 2025, but getting something is better than what we ended up getting (nothing) for too many departing players over the last 2 years.

[notin]

I can't see him doing both lanes, unless the "buy" is someone signed beyond 2024.

 

Even with Casas and everyone else staying healthy, I just don't see this team going far, if we happen to make the playoffs.

 

I think he can get something of value for Pivetta and Jansen, and if Martin and O'Neill look good in July, maybe something for them, too.

 

I'm not sure get prospects or players that will help in 2025, but getting something is better than what we ended up getting (nothing) for too many departing players over the last 2 years.

 

 

If he sells off Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, etc. I’m (begrudgingly) on board. And if he simultaneously buys Garret Crochet, I’m excited …

[moonslav59]

If he sells off Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, etc. I’m (begrudgingly) on board. And if he simultaneously buys Garret Crochet, I’m excited …

 

It would take more than Brez would give to get Crochet.

 

Maybe trade all you get for the sell trades and add 2 from Perales, Cespedes and Bleis, and ...

[Hugh2]

If he sells off Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, etc. I’m (begrudgingly) on board. And if he simultaneously buys Garret Crochet, I’m excited …

 

I pretty much came on to say something similiar. If they sold off expiring assets and bought guys under team control who can play into 2025 as well then depending on the names coming and going I might not hate that.

[Hugh2]

It would take more than Brez would give to get Crochet.

 

Maybe trade all you get for the sell trades and add 2 from Perales, Cespedes and Bleis, and ...

 

 

 

I'm not sure we know that yet, this will be his first trade dealine, and this upcoming offseason he may have more freedom to make moves. I think we will have a better ideal of what kind of trade maker he is, too early to tell but some of the early signs are good for him.

[moonslav59]

I pretty much came on to say something similiar. If they sold off expiring assets and bought guys under team control who can play into 2025 as well then depending on the names coming and going I might not hate that.

 

If we end up trading for decent prospects not ML ready for 2015, we would have more trade capabilities, this winter and next deadline to actually improve the 2025 roster.

 

In theory.

[vegasbob]

After watching the Red Sox snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in Chicago, I decided to watch a little MLB action. Checked on Yankees-Dodgers and thought it still might be Red Sox with Verdugo, Betts, and Kike playing first string. Kike botched a tough play at 3B but overall this is a whole different level of baseball from what we are seeing. SMH

 

Oh, and a rotation of Criswell, Bello and Crawford vs the Yankees this week will be a study in fan patience and a guaranteed bullpen burning

Edited June 10, 2024 by vegasbob

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure we know that yet, this will be his first trade dealine, and this upcoming offseason he may have more freedom to make moves. I think we will have a better ideal of what kind of trade maker he is, too early to tell but some of the early signs are good for him.

 

We really don't know what Brez is like or what he values as more important. My guess is was hired with the organization's philosophy in mind. I think he is looking more to the future than 2024. Word also came out that the upper brass was more upset about Bloom not selling than not buying, so I do think there are hints at what direction Brez is being pointed to.

 

I do think he has some freedom, and maybe Bloom had more than we thought, but was frozen by indecision.

 

This is all speculation, but I think Brez is smart enough to know this year's team has such a tiny chance at glory, the trade off by being a full throttle seller will be too overpowering.

 

I'm not sure what will happen, if we play .560 ball up to the deadline. I doubt that happens, but I don't think we'll be buyers if we are near .500, even if we are just 3-4 games back at the deadline, but that's just my opinion.

 

I'd try to extend Pivetta for 2-3 more years, and if we can't do it, trade him.

 

Jansen and O'Neill are no brainers, assuming they have value.

 

Martin needs to return and do well to have value.

 

McGuire and Anderson might bring us something, but not a whole lot.

 

[notin]

It would take more than Brez would give to get Crochet.

 

Maybe trade all you get for the sell trades and add 2 from Perales, Cespedes and Bleis, and ...

 

BTV says it’s possible for Anthony and Fitts. No idea if the White Sox like those posers or just view Crochet better than the neutral BTV…

[moonslav59]

BTV says it’s possible for Anthony and Fitts. No idea if the White Sox like those posers or just view Crochet better than the neutral BTV…

 

BTV is sometimes slow on updating shooting stars like Crochet. My guess is it would take a top 3 plus 2 from Bleis, Perales or Cespedes & Fitts.

[moonslav59]

BTV says it’s possible for Anthony and Fitts. No idea if the White Sox like those posers or just view Crochet better than the neutral BTV…

 

Did you pay for BTV?

[notin]

Did you pay for BTV?

 

Nope. But you can read the boards to get values of players...

[notin]

BTV is sometimes slow on updating shooting stars like Crochet. My guess is it would take a top 3 plus 2 from Bleis, Perales or Cespedes & Fitts.

 

If anything his value likely goes down after this year, as he is eligible for arbitration prior to next season…

[Bellhorn04]

I get what you’re saying, but you’re not correct. You’re trying to discount better first place teams as part of the overall strength of the division. “The 2021 Rays could have won the division with 93 wins.” But they won 100, and their presence as a 100 win team did make the AL East stronger that year. There was no such team in 2016 and 2017…

 

And your whole point is based on the totally arbitrary opinion that 93 wins isn't a strong number. All you're looking at is that one number, with no context.

 

The 2016 team had a run differential of 184 for a Pythagorean record of 98-64.

 

They were 88-64, had the division wrapped up and lost 5 of their last 6.

[Bellhorn04]

Should have read: the 2016 team was 92-64.

[moonslav59]

Those Sox teams were very good, despite the early playoff exits, but the division was weaker than it was afterwards.

[moonslav59]

Is DHam for real?

 

If yes, what a nice surprise!

 

MLB.com:

 

David Hamilton hits home run in Red Sox win against White Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

CHICAGO -- A typically even-keeled David Hamilton showed a bit of emotion when he reached second base in the ninth inning Sunday at Guaranteed Rate Field, emphatically clapping his hands. The Red Sox were down 4-3 when Hamilton led off the ninth with that double. After stealing third base, he

 

His minor league numbers 2021-2023 at 650 PAs:

 

.251 20 72 (.346/.420/.766)

60 xbhs

26 2Bs

13 3Bs

90 SBs

Edited June 10, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Those Sox teams were very good, despite the early playoff exits, but the division was weaker than it was afterwards.

 

Random variations, nothing new.

[notin]

And your whole point is based on the totally arbitrary opinion that 93 wins isn't a strong number. All you're looking at is that one number, with no context.

 

The 2016 team had a run differential of 184 for a Pythagorean record of 98-64.

 

They were 88-64, had the division wrapped up and lost 5 of their last 6.

 

Exactly what aspect of post #4526 are you challenging?

 

I said the 2016 and 2017 teams 1) won only 93 games and that 2) it’s not exactly a commanding total (supported by it being the lowest total in the history of the current AL East) and 3) it was probably a statement about the AL East at the time. And it is, that through a three year stretch, the lowest total in current division history was reached also the maximum for wins. Now the division was improving, since in 2018 you had the 108 win Red Sox, the 100 win Yankees, and the 90 win Rays.

 

Not sure how any of this gets refuted by the run differential of the 2016 team…

[Nick]

Is DHam for real?

 

If yes, what a nice surprise!

 

MLB.com:

 

David Hamilton hits home run in Red Sox win against White Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

CHICAGO -- A typically even-keeled David Hamilton showed a bit of emotion when he reached second base in the ninth inning Sunday at Guaranteed Rate Field, emphatically clapping his hands. The Red Sox were down 4-3 when Hamilton led off the ninth with that double. After stealing third base, he

 

His minor league numbers 2021-2023 at 650 PAs:

 

.251 20 72 (.346/.420/.766)

60 xbhs

26 2Bs

13 3Bs

90 SBs

 

I think he's a good offensive player. It's his defense that concerns me.

 

My thought is he is better than Valdez and he should be playing 2B (easier position in my book than short) to mitigate his defensive shortcomings.

 

Or maybe he can play in the outfield, you know, get more lefty bats in the OF.

 

There's no denying his speed and I like that about this team.....Rafaela, Duran, Hamilton, Abreu, Wong, Story, Refsnyder, they can all run.

 

Casas and McGuire are the slow guys.

Edited June 10, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Random variations, nothing new.

 

Indeed. Team and division strength goes up and down.

 

Those Sox teams were very good to excellent. The weaker division does not change that all that much, just as the recent Sox crappy records in tougher divisions doesn't change things a whole lot.

 

2016 Sox

1.021 Papi

.897 Betts

.866 HRam (1B)

.845 Leon

.835 JBJ

.825 Pedey

.802 Bogey

.726 Shaw (3B)

.705 Holt/.850 Young/.835 Beni (LF)

 

3.15 Cy Porcello (33 GS) 3.40 FIP

3.33 Wright (24 GS) 3.77

3.99 Price (35 GS) 3.60

Buch, ERod and Pom were between 4.60 and 4.80

Kimbrel 31 saves 2.92 FIP

 

The 2017 Sox saw significant dips in vet OPS and had no Papi, but they added Sale

2.90 Sale (32) 2.45

3.32 Pom (32) 3.84

3.38 Price (11) 3.64

4.19 ERod (24) 3.97

4.56 Porc (33) 4.60

 

1.43 Kimbrel 1.42 FIP

 

 

[Nick]

With Casas returning at some point and Story next year, I think our offense will be effective, just need to find a right handed bat for DH.

 

I'm just not sure how we're going to assemble our starting rotation.

 

There's only three ways to do it, trade, free agency or promote from within. Current regime appears not to be interested spending big money on a free agent.

 

 

At the current rate, we have following.

 

1 Tanner

2

3

4 Bello/Kutter

5 Kutter/Bello

 

The team won't be any better unless we fill in the blank. (I know, I know, I'm stating the obvious)

[mvp 78]

With Casas returning at some point and Story next year, I think our offense will be effective, just need to find a right handed bat for DH.

 

I'm just not sure how we're going to assemble our starting rotation.

 

There's only three ways to do it, trade, free agency or promote from within. Current regime appears not to be interested spending big money on a free agent.

 

 

At the current rate, we have following.

 

1 Tanner

2

3

4 Bello/Kutter

5 Kutter/Bello

 

The team won't be any better unless we fill in the blank. (I know, I know, I'm stating the obvious)

 

They will try to sell us on:

 

Tanner

Gio

Kutter

Bello

Fitts