A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

I'm not big on the blame game, but they did make a major mistake.

 

Is it "mismanagement?" Maybe not.

 

 

I think they identified a player they liked, made room for him in the budget, and went out and got him. I have no problem with that. He does need to start staying on the field….

[moonslav59]

I watched Mookie play SS last night and he didn't look a bit out of place. Letting him bolt was the ONLY reason Devers got that extension but the $$ went to the wrong guy. Oh and Yamamoto DOMINATED the 1st place NYY last night.

 

I am 100% on board with the opinion we blew it with Betts.

 

I don't really care, if it was the main reason we signed Devers. The fact is, we did. I don't think JH dished out $313M for just that reason, alone, but I do think it was a significant factor.

 

Of course, I wish we'd have signed Betts and let Devers (and Bogey) walk, instead. That does not change the fact that JH has spent big, recently.

 

While the Gio signing went kaput before day one of the season, the fact is, he was the highest paid pitcher since the Sale/Nate contracts (5 years ago.)

 

It's not all doom & gloom- not that you are saying it is.

 

Again, I have no expectations JH will spend bigly, again, but nobody can be sure what he will do.

 

I'm hoping (not hopeful) he will spend when he sees the foundation is just 2-3 big additions away from a chance at a ring: and ace and a closer or a big RH'd bat.

[notin]

I’d rather have signed Devers as compensation for losing Betts than have signed neither…

[moonslav59]

I think they identified a player they liked, made room for him in the budget, and went out and got him. I have no problem with that. He does need to start staying on the field….

 

The problem is too many whiffs on our biggest contracts. It's not just Yoshida. Sure, bad luck plays into some of the "mistakes," but the fact is our biggest contracts handed out since the Sale and Nate deals have largely been disappointing or outright busts.

 

Call it bad luck.

Call it understandable.

Call it mismanagement.

 

The fact is we have swung and missed on far too many of our biggest deals, and even a big chunk of our intermediate-sized deals.

 

You tell me, how many misses and mehs you see on this list:

 

Group A:

313/10 Devers*

145/5 Sale

140/6 Story

90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

68/4 Nate

60/3 Bogey (counted up to opt out)

 

Group B:

39/2 Giolito

32/2 Jansen

55/6 Bello*

50/8 Rafaela*

 

Group C:

19/2 Barnes

18/2 Martin*

13/1 Turner

10/1 Kike II

10/1 Kluber

10/1 Richards

 

Group D

19/4 Whitlock*

14/2 Kike I

10/2 Paxton

10/2 Hendriks*

14/3 Vaz (traded at end)

(12/1 JBJ added by trade and offset some by Renfroe's contract)

(9/1 Ottavino was added by trade)

7/1 Wacha

7/1 Duvall

6/1 Perez I

8/2 Diekman (traded)

5/1 Perez II

5/1 Hill

 

Some are obviously still pending, but I think you can guess what red means. Blue means "meh."

[moonslav59]

I’d rather have signed Devers as compensation for losing Betts than have signed neither…

 

Signing none of the "big 3" would have been gross mismanagement.

[moonslav59]

I’d rather have signed Devers as compensation for losing Betts than have signed neither…

 

We don't know what Bogey would have taken, but I'd rather have Devers Turns 28, soon) and his contract vs Bogey and his contract (turns 32, soon and is at .581 in '24 and .741 w SDP and .779 '22-'24.)

 

It might not even be a slam dunk that a Bogey extension of even $200M/4 or $220M/5 would have been worth it, at this point.

[Randy Red Sox]

Signing none of the "big 3" would have been gross mismanagement.

 

signing only 1 of the 3 was mismanagement. If Mayer, Teal, and Anthony all turn out are you going to be happy if we only keep 1 of the 3 after a few years?

[notin]

The problem is too many whiffs on our biggest contracts. It's not just Yoshida. Sure, bad luck plays into some of the "mistakes," but the fact is our biggest contracts handed out since the Sale and Nate deals have largely been disappointing or outright busts.

 

Call it bad luck.

Call it understandable.

Call it mismanagement.

 

The fact is we have swung and missed on far too many of our biggest deals, and even a big chunk of our intermediate-sized deals.

 

You tell me, how many misses and mehs you see on this list:

 

Group A:

313/10 Devers*

145/5 Sale

140/6 Story

90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

68/4 Nate

60/3 Bogey (counted up to opt out)

 

Group B:

39/2 Giolito

32/2 Jansen

55/6 Bello*

50/8 Rafaela*

 

Group C:

19/2 Barnes

18/2 Martin*

13/1 Turner

10/1 Kike II

10/1 Kluber

10/1 Richards

 

Group D

19/4 Whitlock*

14/2 Kike I

10/2 Paxton

10/2 Hendriks*

14/3 Vaz (traded at end)

(12/1 JBJ added by trade and offset some by Renfroe's contract)

(9/1 Ottavino was added by trade)

7/1 Wacha

7/1 Duvall

6/1 Perez I

8/2 Diekman (traded)

5/1 Perez II

5/1 Hill

 

Some are obviously still pending, but I think you can guess what red means. Blue means "meh."

 

I think you will find those results are probably typical around MLB. Free agency is often paying a player in his 30s for what he did in his 20s.

 

We got Randy wishing we signed Yamamoto, but I’d think avoiding him understandable given the Sox history. We signed Price and Sale for a combined 12 season and got what? Two healthy seasons?

Edited June 8, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

I think you will find those results are probably typical around MLB. Free agency is often paying a player in his 30s for what he did in his 20s.

 

i disagree on Group A: 6 players

3 busts

1 meh

1 pending

1 was Bogey's deal that mostly just bought out his last arb year + just 2 years. That deal could be a group B one.

 

We are 50-50 on group B, which is about the norm. (Bello and Rafaela's AAV is really group C and are pending, anyway)

 

Group C is 4 failures out of 6 with Martin pending. Below norm.

 

Group D is the best, but my point was about the highest paid players. Set the bar at $18M AAV or more:

13/10 Devers*

145/5 Sale

140/6 Story

90/5 Yoshida

68/4 Nate

60/3 Bogey (counted up to opt out)

39/2 Giolito

 

4 out of 7 fails

1 meh

1 pending

1 Bogey's final 2 yrs as the best big deal we made since 2018.

 

No way this is on par.

[moonslav59]

signing only 1 of the 3 was mismanagement.

 

If one was Bogey, I'm not so sure.

 

It was all about Betts.

 

Had we signed Betts and not made massive cuts to the budget after 2022, we'd have been okay, even with all the bad deals that came after Betts. Our lower paid deals had better results, anyway.

 

Even if you assume, we could have gotten Bogey at $220M/5, which is no sure thing, I'd rather have these guys at less than half the overall cost.

32/2 Jansen

18/2 Martin

14/1 Turner

14/2 Kike I

7/1 Wacha

7/1 Duvall

5/1 Hill

[Randy Red Sox]

If one was Bogey, I'm not so sure.

 

It was all about Betts.

 

Had we signed Betts and not made massive cuts to the budget after 2022, we'd have been okay, even with all the bad deals that came after Betts. Our lower paid deals had better results, anyway.

 

Even if you assume, we could have gotten Bogey at $220M/5, which is no sure thing, I'd rather have these guys at less than half the overall cost.

32/2 Jansen

18/2 Martin

14/1 Turner

14/2 Kike I

7/1 Wacha

7/1 Duvall

5/1 Hill

 

Hey we can get Hill back soon. His kid's LL team should be done in about a month and maybe Scrooge can splurge a mil or so for him

[Bellhorn04]

I think they identified a player they liked, made room for him in the budget, and went out and got him. I have no problem with that.

 

Yeah, unless their name is David Price.

[moonslav59]

Hey we can get Hill back soon. His kid's LL team should be done in about a month and maybe Scrooge can splurge a mil or so for him

 

LOL. Trade Pivetta, Jansen and Martin and sign Hill. Makes sense.

[Bellhorn04]

While the Gio signing went kaput before day one of the season, the fact is, he was the highest paid pitcher since the Sale/Nate contracts (5 years ago.)

 

If we signed a guy for $11 million you could say the same thing.

[moonslav59]

If we signed a guy for $11 million you could say the same thing.

 

$38.5M 2 Gio

 

RP: $32M/2 Jansen and $18.5M/2 Martin and Barnes.

 

What am I missing on $11M?

[notin]

signing only 1 of the 3 was mismanagement. If Mayer, Teal, and Anthony all turn out are you going to be happy if we only keep 1 of the 3 after a few years?

 

Yes.

 

But it will be more of a “relieved” type of happy than a satisfied one…

[Bellhorn04]

$38.5M 2 Gio

 

RP: $32M/2 Jansen and $18.5M/2 Martin and Barnes.

 

What am I missing on $11M?

 

I was only talking about starters.

[notin]

Yeah, unless their name is David Price.

 

Fair point.

 

I only liked that deal because of the opt out…

[Randy Red Sox]

LOL. Trade Pivetta, Jansen and Martin and sign Hill. Makes sense.

 

we won't be trading ANY of those guys. With a .500 record in this expanded playoff format the FO will sell the fact we are still in a W/C chase like they have done in the past few seasons

[moonslav59]

we won't be trading ANY of those guys. With a .500 record in this expanded playoff format the FO will sell the fact we are still in a W/C chase like they have done in the past few seasons

 

Don't be so sure on what "lane" Brez picks.

 

I doubt he trades prospects for rentals, and the "third lane" would be doing nothing or what Bloom tried once: doing both lanes.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say we will be sellers- full throttle.

[Bellhorn04]

Don't be so sure on what "lane" Brez picks.

 

I doubt he trades prospects for rentals, and the "third lane" would be doing nothing or what Bloom tried once: doing both lanes.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say we will be sellers- full throttle.

 

Same.

[Randy Red Sox]

Don't be so sure on what "lane" Brez picks.

 

I doubt he trades prospects for rentals, and the "third lane" would be doing nothing or what Bloom tried once: doing both lanes.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say we will be sellers- full throttle.

 

i think we should be full throttle too but doubt we will be given our past seasons

[notin]

we won't be trading ANY of those guys. With a .500 record in this expanded playoff format the FO will sell the fact we are still in a W/C chase like they have done in the past few seasons

 

They did nothing the past two seasons. Neither lane.

 

In 2022, they actually appeared to have sampled both lanes. The results of their seller lane did net them Abreu and Valdez, which is better than what they got as buyers (Hosmer)…

[dgalehouse]

Red Sox fans, and baseball fans in general, are a fickle, entitled bunch. If a player, manager, executive or owner falters, they take it personally and turn on the supposed culprit. DFA this guy, fire that guy, he sucks and so forth. It's just the way fans are. That being said, at some point John Henry made a conscious decision that he was spending too much on the team and he was looking to cut the spending. And he did it. The results kind of speak for themselves. It has not been very good. Now, he emerges from hiding and is displaying an attitude toward the fans who are spending their money on his ballclub. It is not a good look and not good business.

[Old Red]

Red Sox fans, and baseball fans in general, are a fickle, entitled bunch. If a player, manager, executive or owner falters, they take it personally and turn on the supposed culprit. DFA this guy, fire that guy, he sucks and so forth. It's just the way fans are. That being said, at some point John Henry made a conscious decision that he was spending too much on the team and he was looking to cut the spending. And he did it. The results kind of speak for themselves. It has not been very good. Now, he emerges from hiding and is displaying an attitude toward the fans who are spending their money on his ballclub. It is not a good look and not good business.

 

If any Red Sox fan had any doubts about what JH is, and thinks about them before there should be no doubt now. Out of tune and out of touch.Some on here thinks he’s the same JH though, which is out of tune, and out of touch. Careful what you wish for they say when you bring up that He should sell the club.🤭🙈

[dgalehouse]

If any Red Sox fan had any doubts about what JH is, and thinks about them before there should be no doubt now. Out of tune and out of touch.Some on here thinks he’s the same JH though, which is out of tune, and out of touch. Careful what you wish for they say when you bring up that He should sell the club.

 

I would be happy to see him sell the team, but I don't think he has any intention of doing so.

[S5Dewey]

Don't be so sure on what "lane" Brez picks.

 

I doubt he trades prospects for rentals, and the "third lane" would be doing nothing or what Bloom tried once: doing both lanes.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say we will be sellers- full throttle.

 

I don't see them trading prospects for rentals. IMHO the Club is doing exactly what they should be doing. For 2024 they're looking at the players under moderate-to-long years of control, the young players currently with the team, and the promising players in the minors. When the season is over they'll make decisions as to where the weaknesses are and try to fill them through free agency if necessary. In short, building a team the smart way. See: Craig Breslow.

 

If the Sox are .500-ish and the FO does nothing the fans will scream bloody murder but given our young talent it would be the smarter thing to do.

[moonslav59]

They did nothing the past two seasons. Neither lane.

 

In 2022, they actually appeared to have sampled both lanes. The results of their seller lane did net them Abreu and Valdez, which is better than what they got as buyers (Hosmer)…

 

The last 2 seasons includes 2022.

 

I wouldn't call it "nothing." BTW, we also got McGuire, which was not really a buy or sell type trade. We also were "buyers" on the Northcut for Tommy Pham trade in '22. Bloom was busy, but nothing really major, except maybe the Vaz for Abreu & Valdez deal.

 

I do agree on adding Urias for Blaylock counts as nothing ('23.)

Same with Kike for Robertson & Hagenman not counting as a sell, but rather a nothing deal.

 

In '21, we added Schwarber, Robles and Austin Davis. Later, we added Iggy and T Shaw. That was significant "buying."

 

I think Brez goes full sell on all free agents-to be, regardless of what the return might be. Unlike Bloom, he will just take the best offer out there. I could see him also making a surprise trade of someone who does not fit into his plan for the future or someone that might not be his type of player. This is pure speculation, but he has had time to get a read on many players, and my guess is those reads are not all good to him.

 

I've mentioned McGuire, due to Teel knocking on the door.

Depending on how the view Anthony's ETA, maybe we deal an OF'er, despite how well all 3 are doing.

I don't think Mayer's addition to the middle infield mix means we can afford to trade someone. Story and Grissom are still question marks. Yorke is falling, and DHam and Romy should not be viewed as FT options. EValdez is in the mix and has looked better on D, this year.

 

I think we trade:

Pivetta

Jansen

Martin, if back

O'Neill, if healthy

Anderson, if anyone wants him

 

I'm not projecting great returns, but Pivetta and Jansen look to have more trade value than Vaz did in '22.

 

 

 

[notin]

The last 2 seasons includes 2022.

 

I wouldn't call it "nothing." BTW, we also got McGuire, which was not really a buy or sell type trade. We also were "buyers" on the Northcut for Tommy Pham trade in '22. Bloom was busy, but nothing really major, except maybe the Vaz for Abreu & Valdez deal.

 

I do agree on adding Urias for Blaylock counts as nothing ('23.)

Same with Kike for Robertson & Hagenman not counting as a sell, but rather a nothing deal.

 

In '21, we added Schwarber, Robles and Austin Davis. Later, we added Iggy and T Shaw. That was significant "buying."

 

I think Brez goes full sell on all free agents-to be, regardless of what the return might be. Unlike Bloom, he will just take the best offer out there. I could see him also making a surprise trade of someone who does not fit into his plan for the future or someone that might not be his type of player. This is pure speculation, but he has had time to get a read on many players, and my guess is those reads are not all good to him.

 

I've mentioned McGuire, due to Teel knocking on the door.

Depending on how the view Anthony's ETA, maybe we deal an OF'er, despite how well all 3 are doing.

I don't think Mayer's addition to the middle infield mix means we can afford to trade someone. Story and Grissom are still question marks. Yorke is falling, and DHam and Romy should not be viewed as FT options. EValdez is in the mix and has looked better on D, this year.

 

I think we trade:

Pivetta

Jansen

Martin, if back

O'Neill, if healthy

Anderson, if anyone wants him

 

I'm not projecting great returns, but Pivetta and Jansen look to have more trade value than Vaz did in '22.

 

 

 

 

 

I was counting 2022.

 

Selling Vazquez and buying Hosmer wasn’ta commitment to either direction. The sell move is working out better right now, at least…

[moonslav59]

I was counting 2022.

 

Selling Vazquez and buying Hosmer wasn’ta commitment to either direction. The sell move is working out better right now, at least…

 

OK. You said we did nothing.