A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

My point was I am happy with our catching situation. Our primary catcher right now bats right handed. AND Moon has more good news in that he hits righties just as well if not better.

 

I was concerned with plethora of left handed bats at other 8 positions projecting into 2025.

 

righties, Rafaela (CF) and Story (2B)

lefties, Yoshida (DH), Casas (1B), Devers (3B), Duran (LF), Mayer (SS) and Abreu/Anthony (RF).

 

Do we trade either Anthony or Mayer to get a young, team controlled (3+ years) starting pitcher to balance out the lineup? And do this at the trade deadline?

 

Or, just getting rid of Yoshida and bring in a righty bat or resign O'Neill as a DH sufficient to balance out the line up (4 righties and 5 lefties) and retain our 3 prospects?

 

I'm fine with trading Mayer. Hard to rely on Story for 2025 though. May need a good defensive SS to plop on the bench.

 

Need to figure out what to do with Yoshida too. Eat salary if necessary.

[moonslav59]

The trend is a regular split if you looked at his current numbers.

 

I never used the word trend.

 

I started out saying he has a career split about 100 points on the reverse side.

 

I responded to a reply saying “if he continues” implying as his career has been.

 

You added trend or think I implied it.

[moonslav59]

Wong is not a reverse-split guy. Why does this continue to be an argument?

 

He may not end up being one, and he hasn’t been this year, so far, but his career numbers are bigger and 100 points is significant.

[notin]

He may not end up being one, and he hasn’t been this year, so far, but his career numbers are bigger and 100 points is significant.

 

The only season in his career in which Wong had a reverse split was in 2022, when lefties dominated him for all of 18 plate appearances…

[Maxbialystock]

He may not end up being one, and he hasn’t been this year, so far, but his career numbers are bigger and 100 points is significant.

 

I think--without knowing for sure--that a righty hitter with a "reverse split" (meaning he hits righty pitcher better than lefty) isn't so rare.

 

Why? Only 10% of humans are left-handed. I don't know what the carryover is among MLB pitchers, but I'm sure the great majority, if not 90%, are righties. Consequently, righty hitters have no choice but to develop an ability to hit righty pitchers. If the only pitchers you can hit are lefties, you aren't going to play much.

 

The above also explains--in part--why so many right-handed players learn to hit from the left side. They can reasonably expect to face righty pitchers most of the time.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wong is not a reverse-split guy. Why does this continue to be an argument?

 

Because it just sounds like it would hurt -- even wearing the proper protection.

[moonslav59]

I'm fine with trading Mayer. Hard to rely on Story for 2025 though. May need a good defensive SS to plop on the bench.

 

Need to figure out what to do with Yoshida too. Eat salary if necessary.

 

On the surface, I think we will need more help in the middle IF (Mayer) than OF (Anthony) or C (we have Wong)

 

I’m not sure this should be the deciding factor in choosing which of our top 3 prospects might be best to trade, assuming one will be traded. I hope it’s for a top controllable SP.

 

One could argue for keeping Anthony to replace O’Neill, despite the shift even further to LHB unbalance. We also may lose Ref after 2025 and could trade Abreu, if overloaded in the OF.

 

One could argue for keeping Teel, as the catching position is always a tough position to fill. (That is also a point for other GMs to offer more for him.)

 

The strongest argument, to me, is to keep all 3. Personally, I’d put KCampbell 4th on my most wanted keeper list. Cespedes might be 5. As much as I think we need to keep our best pitching prospects, namely Perales, Fitts and Sandlin in that order, I’d trade any in a package for a solid ace or #2. I really like Bleis, but you have to give to get, and out OF looks loaded. If we keep Mayer, then Yorke is expendable. If we keep all 5, we can afford to trade any everyday player from Bleis on down for a SP under control.

 

[moonslav59]

The only season in his career in which Wong had a reverse split was in 2022, when lefties dominated him for all of 18 plate appearances…

 

Did you look at the over 230 point reverse split in2023 with sample sizes of 295 and 108 PAs???

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I really like Bleis, but you have to give to get, and out OF looks loaded. If we keep Mayer, then Yorke is expendable. If we keep all 5, we can afford to trade any everyday player from Bleis on down for a SP under control.

 

 

Realistically, Breslow knows he'll need to part with one of Mayer-Anthony-Teel-Campbell if he wants a controllable under-30 big league starting pitcher this month. The lower level prospects may turn out to better players, but rebuilding clubs always ask for MLB-ready or near-ready guys (the Top 4 could all feasibly make the majors by the end of next year).

 

The handful of teams giving up on even a wild card can just sit back and wait until the last minute of the deadline to take the best possible package from desperate GMs. Smart CBOs, though, should be able to land a rental or two before then...

[mvp 78]

He may not end up being one, and he hasn’t been this year, so far, but his career numbers are bigger and 100 points is significant.

 

Reverse splits for batters aren't really a career long trend. Matt Duffy was known as a THE reverse split guy, but his splits trended towards even over his career (714/681). For Wong, it's most likely a blip in the map as it is with most MLB hitters. With MLB pitchers, reverse splits can be notable because of pitch mix.

[mvp 78]

Realistically, Breslow knows he'll need to part with one of Mayer-Anthony-Teel-Campbell if he wants a controllable under-30 big league starting pitcher this month. The lower level prospects may turn out to better players, but rebuilding clubs always ask for MLB-ready or near-ready guys (the Top 4 could all feasibly make the majors by the end of next year).

 

The handful of teams giving up on even a wild card can just sit back and wait until the last minute of the deadline to take the best possible package from desperate GMs. Smart CBOs, though, should be able to land a rental or two before then...

 

If Mayer is dealt for a starter, it's in the offseason. I don't see Breslow doing a blockbuster this month.

[moonslav59]

Realistically, Breslow knows he'll need to part with one of Mayer-Anthony-Teel-Campbell if he wants a controllable under-30 big league starting pitcher this month. The lower level prospects may turn out to better players, but rebuilding clubs always ask for MLB-ready or near-ready guys (the Top 4 could all feasibly make the majors by the end of next year).

 

The handful of teams giving up on even a wild card can just sit back and wait until the last minute of the deadline to take the best possible package from desperate GMs. Smart CBOs, though, should be able to land a rental or two before then...

 

Agreed.

 

We might trade a prospect at #8 or worse for a rental, but not a top 7.

 

This winter, we likely will have to trade a top 3 or 2 from Campbell, Cespedes and Bleis to just keep the other GM from hanging up.

[Randy Red Sox]

If Mayer is dealt for a starter, it's in the offseason. I don't see Breslow doing a blockbuster this month.

 

far more likely that Story is traded [ albeit further down the road} than Mayer. i can almost guarantee Henry has told Breslow to do whatever it takes [see Sale trade} to offload that contract.

[moonslav59]

far more likely that Story is traded [ albeit further down the road} than Mayer. i can almost guarantee Henry has told Breslow to do whatever it takes [see Sale trade} to offload that contract.

 

Yoshida and Story to LAD?

[mvp 78]

far more likely that Story is traded [ albeit further down the road} than Mayer. i can almost guarantee Henry has told Breslow to do whatever it takes [see Sale trade} to offload that contract.

 

Who is going to want oft injured Story AND unproductive Yoshida. Hard sell with those two. Easier to hold your nose and keep Story who can at least field competently.

[moonslav59]

Who is going to want oft injured Story AND unproductive Yoshida. Hard sell with those two. Easier to hold your nose and keep Story who can at least field competently.

 

Agreed. They both have a better chance of doing something productive than what we’d get in return, even if we pay and save half their contract costs.

 

Plus, there is no guarantee JH spends the money saved.

[Dipre]

I don't know!!! They should have learned by now to just agree with me.

?

So they should have wanted Duran, out best player this year, to be traded?

[Dipre]

He may not end up being one, and he hasn’t been this year, so far, but his career numbers are bigger and 100 points is significant.

 

Not over that sample.

[Randy Red Sox]

Who is going to want oft injured Story AND unproductive Yoshida. Hard sell with those two. Easier to hold your nose and keep Story who can at least field competently.

 

yeah for 20 games a season meanwhile you want a trade blue chip SS who will be cost controlled for years. Makes great sense

[Maxbialystock]

yeah for 20 games a season meanwhile you want a trade blue chip SS who will be cost controlled for years. Makes great sense

 

Absolutely no need to trade Mayer to keep Story. If Story is healthy, he is the answer at 2b as he was in 2022.

[notin]

Absolutely no need to trade Mayer to keep Story. If Story is healthy, he is the answer at 2b as he was in 2022.

 

Unless Vaughn Grissom shows up healthy.

[moonslav59]

Sox are ….

 

3.5 behind the Yanks (2 loss column)

5.5 from the Os (5 losses)

1.5 behind MN for the #2 WC slot

 

+1.0 on KCR (2 in loss column)

+2.5 on the streaking Astros (3 losses)

 

[moonslav59]

Absolutely no need to trade Mayer to keep Story. If Story is healthy, he is the answer at 2b as he was in 2022.

 

Sure looks good on paper. If one gets hurt or struggles, we’ll have DHam, Romy and Grissom as decent looking depth.

[Old Red]

Sox are ….

 

3.5 behind the Yanks (2 loss column)

5.5 from the Os (5 losses)

1.5 behind MN for the #2 WC slot

 

+1.0 on KCR (2 in loss column)

+2.5 on the streaking Astros (3 losses)

 

So far so good. Schedule gets tougher from here starting tonight with not playing many losing teams through the end of August. One team coming on fast that the Red Sox has lots of games with is Houston.

[Hugh2]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2024/07/2024draftpreview.html

 

We got a draft comin up this weekend. Here are some names to look out for

[mvp 78]

?

So they should have wanted Duran, out best player this year, to be traded?

 

Depends on the return.

[mvp 78]

yeah for 20 games a season meanwhile you want a trade blue chip SS who will be cost controlled for years. Makes great sense

 

A blue chip SS who will need to move off position, has a platoon split and struggles with offspeed pitches. He could bring a nice return though.

[mvp 78]

Absolutely no need to trade Mayer to keep Story. If Story is healthy, he is the answer at 2b as he was in 2022.

 

Overdue for a healthy season or two?

[Hugh2]

Depends on the return.

 

Hindsight is always 20/20 but if we traded Duran during this past offseason we may be seriously regretting right now. He probably wouldn't command the type of return a guy who is on pace for an 8 FWar season would.

 

Which I suppose, from a certain perspective means that you trade him this offseason to maximize his trade value. If one wanted to trade him, which I do not.

[mvp 78]

Sure looks good on paper. If one gets hurt or struggles, we’ll have DHam, Romy and Grissom as decent looking depth.

 

If only they had a guy like Tzu Wei Lin as depth though!