A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

Right, and Chris Sale is just any 35 year old pitcher, just like he's showing...

 

There's no perfect comp for Sale, but you've got Tyler Glasnow and Jacob deGrom as examples of guys coming off more than one injury-decimated season, and the going rate was pretty darn high.

 

If you look at Sale's Most Similar By Age, it's been guys like Stephen Strasburg and Lance Lynn lately. Not perfect comps, but not ridiculous ones either.

 

Tyler Glasnow might be a ridiculous comparison. He is not only 5 years younger, but also only made $5.3mill last season. And while he did return a top 100 prospect to Tampa, that pitcher has already had one TJ surgery himself...

[Bellhorn04]

If you look at Sale's Most Similar By Age, it's been guys like Stephen Strasburg and Lance Lynn lately. Not perfect comps, but not ridiculous ones either.

 

Tyler Glasnow might be a ridiculous comparison. He is not only 5 years younger, but also only made $5.3mill last season. And while he did return a top 100 prospect to Tampa, that pitcher has already had one TJ surgery himself...

 

Yeah but what about Glasnow's injury history? I thought that was part of the equation here. The guy had reached 100 innings twice and his career high is 120.

 

Also no idea what his salary last year has to do with it. The real point is how much money the Dodgers invested in him.

[notin]

Yeah but what about Glasnow's injury history? I thought that was part of the equation here. The guy had reached 100 innings twice and his career high is 120.

 

Also no idea what his salary last year has to do with it. The real point is how much money the Dodgers invested in him.

 

Salary is a big factor in the price tag of a player in a trade. You do know that. You were responding to a post about "going rate."

 

Glasnow does have a pretty questionable injury history. But as he is significantly younger, some teams might think that makes him less of a risk over a 35yo pitcher. But worth noting - the Dodgers gave up a younger pitcher who already had TJ to acquire him. (Although I'm fairly certain about half the pitchers in the Dodger system have already had one TJ.)

 

The Dodgers did give him a very heavy contract. Five years - $136mill. Certainly shorter than a pitcher with less injury history would have gotten, but it is for a notable AAV. And it still might burn them.

 

I mean, the Dodgers did have a chance to get in on Sale. and clearly wouldn't even go as high as Vaughn Grissom...

[Maxbialystock]

Sale didn’t get a three year contract from the Braves. He got a two year contract with a club option for a third year. He was due $27.5M this year, but $10M of that was to be deferred to 2039. Now he gets $16M this year, which is actually a pay cut, and the Red Sox are paying the Braves $17M, so it’s a free deal for the Braves. Next year the Braves pay him $22M, so Sale ends up with $38M guaranteed instead of $27.5M guaranteed, which $10M was deferred until 2039.

 

I'm sure you're right, but the point remains Sale got what he wanted, the Braves got what they wanted, and the Sox got what they wanted. Giolito was supposed to be a younger Sale--and he kind of is in that he underwent almost-TJ surgery without pitching a single inning this season.

[dgalehouse]

In the week ahead, the Sox have three at home with the A's and three at home with K.C. The Yankees have three on the road with the Rays and three on the road with the Orioles. It is conceivable that the Sox could catch the Yankees by the All Star break.

[mvp 78]

Conceivable, but unlikely. You could sell me on the Sox going 4-2 and the Yanks going 2-4 over the next 6.

 

Putting more room between the Sox and Royals in the Wild Card race before the trade deadline may be more important than catching the Yanks.

[notin]

Conceivable, but unlikely. You could sell me on the Sox going 4-2 and the Yanks going 2-4 over the next 6.

 

Putting more room between the Sox and Royals in the Wild Card race before the trade deadline may be more important than catching the Yanks.

 

As it stands now, both the Yankees and Royals are competitors for wild card slots…

[Old Red]

In the week ahead, the Sox have three at home with the A's and three at home with K.C. The Yankees have three on the road with the Rays and three on the road with the Orioles. It is conceivable that the Sox could catch the Yankees by the All Star break.

Unfortunately the Red Sox play better on the road than they do at home. They also pitch a lot better on the road.

[mvp 78]

As it stands now, both the Yankees and Royals are competitors for wild card slots…

 

Are the Sox able to affect the Yanks W/L over the next 6 games or no?

[Old Red]

Are the Sox able to affect the Yanks W/L over the next 6 games or no?

They don’t have to. They’ve already done that the past few weeks. It’s someone else’s turn like Baltimore now.

[mvp 78]

Wingenter added to BOS

Uwasawa DFA'd

Booser sent to WOO

[mvp 78]

Westbrook to BOS

Valdez to WOO

[mvp 78]

They don’t have to. They’ve already done that the past few weeks. It’s someone else’s turn like Baltimore now.

 

Sox don't play the Yankees right now. Is it more important to put space between them and the Royals (who they play) or catch up to the Yankees?

[Old Red]

Westbrook to BOS

Valdez to WOO

 

Is Westbrook the RHB being added?

[Old Red]

Sox don't play the Yankees right now. Is it more important to put space between them and the Royals (who they play) or catch up to the Yankees?

 

I get that point. To me every game counts, and it’s still to early to focus on standings except for the trade deadline coming up. The schedule really gets tougher after the AS break.

[mvp 78]

Is Westbrook the RHB being added?

 

For now.

[mvp 78]

I get that point. To me every game counts, and it’s still to early to focus on standings except for the trade deadline coming up. The schedule really gets tougher after the AS break.

 

That's why it's important to worry about beating the Royals as they are team you're playing this week and can actually impact in the standings. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

[Old Red]

For now.

 

Not only wow, but BIG wow.

[Old Red]

That's why it's important to worry about beating the Royals as they are team you're playing this week and can actually impact in the standings. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

 

I’m actually worried more about Houston myself than KC no matter what happens this week.

[Duran Is The Man]

I'm not drawing conclusions, I'm just jabbering like I always do. I tend to get obsessed about some things. This year it's the Sale-Grissom trade. Some of it is pushing back against this being a slam-dunk great trade for the Sox. I've been on Sons of Sam Horn a lot lately and a lot of those folks were absolutely thrilled by it. And Grissom's limited MLB numbers were used as evidence that the guy has already proven he can rake at the MLB level. When I dug deeper into the numbers I was not so impressed.

 

i joined that dump a few years ago and made one post mildly critical of Bloom and was instantly labeled a troll and hater and banned the next day. talk about some thin-skinned snowflakes.

[moonslav59]

What is wrong with Abreu?

 

Reverse jinx!!!

[moonslav59]

Yes, that's what it looks like, he's an OK prospect. We got 10 million and an OK prospect. Some folks talked like Grissom was going to be the answer at second base for the next 6 years.

 

I dont think anyone said he was a sure bet, but 2B has been ranked 29-30th in many categories for3-4 years. Certainly, trying to fix the problem with a guy who had more hope than anyone else on the team made some sense.

 

Let’s see how he does in the next 5 years.

[moonslav59]

I’m more worried about HOU than KCR and maybe even NYY.

 

We have yet to play them, and those may be make or break series for both teams.

[moonslav59]

Rafaela is dangerously close to the .700 mark!

 

Is .650 the new Mendoza line?

[moonslav59]

Rafaela is dangerously close to the .700 mark!

 

Is .650 the new Mendoza line?

 

Out of the top 270 MLB players by PA, .678 marks the top of the bottom 1/3 OPS (bottom 90 players.)

 

.650 is the 204th player out of 270. That is right at the bottom 25% line. I’d say the new Mendoza line might be below .650, today.

 

Bogey, at .581 is about at the bottom 10% line, as of now.

 

It looks like we did well not to extend Bogey at over $200M/ 7 or 8, let alone near what SDP paid!

 

[Nick]

"I gave the team good chamce to win."

 

Is Bello that naive?

[Nick]

That was a stupid cobtract that Padres gave. I would be pissed if I'm a fan.

[Bellhorn04]

Rafaela is dangerously close to the .700 mark!

 

Is .650 the new Mendoza line?

 

.600 is the new Mendoza line IMO.

[mvp 78]

i joined that dump a few years ago and made one post mildly critical of Bloom and was instantly labeled a troll and hater and banned the next day. talk about some thin-skinned snowflakes.

 

And yet people thought this was a circle jerk for the Bloom Squad or whatever...

[mvp 78]

.600 is the new Mendoza line IMO.

 

The Mendoza line was supposed to be the bare minimum, not the bottom 25% right? .600 seems more accurate.