A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[jgar658]

What is wrong with Abreu?

They are pitching him outside and he is toast.

IMO he is trying to pull the ball or lift the ball.

Where is the hitting coach on this?

Should he go back to triple AAA for a tune up.

[Old Red]

I still don't hate Grissom.

 

I get why the Sox wanted to move on from Sale and get a more reliable pitcher. I get why Atlanta took a chance on him. I get why Grissom made sense in this trade from each side's perspective.

 

It is annoying that nothing worked out for Boston...

It’s really not to deep, and really to much analysis isn’t really needed. If Grissom had worked out up to this point, and Sale had gotten injured again, or wasn’t having the good year he’s had so far it wouldn’t be an issue, but nothing has worked out so far in Boston’s favor. Gio got hurt before he even pitched an inning, Grissom has been injured twice, and didn’t produce much of anything when he did play, and Sale is a CY candidate at this moment.

[mvp 78]

What is wrong with Abreu?

They are pitching him outside and he is toast.

IMO he is trying to pull the ball or lift the ball.

Where is the hitting coach on this?

Should he go back to triple AAA for a tune up.

 

He started off the year slow too. I'm sure he'll pick back up eventually. He's a little bit of a weird case and I think he's more of a 4th OFer long term.

[Old Red]

He started off the year slow too. I'm sure he'll pick back up eventually. He's a little bit of a weird case and I think he's more of a 4th OFer long term.

 

He hasn’t been the same since he was out with that injury. He had a slow start to the season, so most likely he will get going again.

[Bellhorn04]

You mean people simply not convinced of anything by his whopping 87 plate appearances? Or by his 170 plate appearances over two years?

 

 

By the way, when counting the pollyannas who called him unlucky, do you count StatCast among them?

 

I look mainly at FanGraphs. That's advanced enough for me. And I see a -0.9 fWAR. And I believe the luck stuff is factored into that.

[notin]

I look mainly at FanGraphs. That's advanced enough for me. And I see a -0.9 fWAR. And I believe the luck stuff is factored into that.

 

I don’t think luck is factored into fWAR…

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t think luck is factored into fWAR…

 

Are there offensive stats that do factor in luck?

[notin]

Are there offensive stats that do factor in luck?

 

I didn’t come to that conclusion.

 

Batting runs are a function of wOBA against league and park factors, among other things like position, etc. In order to accommodate luck, it would need an expected component, like xwOBA, xBABIP. Basically something that uses an expected outcome over an actual outcome, as this is how luck is included. I can’t find any such reference.

 

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/

[mvp 78]

Are there offensive stats that do factor in luck?

 

RBIs

[notin]

Are there offensive stats that do factor in luck?

 

Anything expected, like xBA, xOPS, etc…

[notin]

RBIs

 

No, those are built on a foundation of luck…

[Old Red]

Congrats to the three Red Sox All-Stars. Especially Duran who went from The Butterfly Man to an All-Star. Quite the turnaround, and well deserved.

[Bellhorn04]

Anything expected, like xBA, xOPS, etc…

 

So Grissom's 2024 xOBA per Savant is .271 and his xSLG is .317.

 

His Savant numbers seem to confirm he's been both unlucky and not very good.

[notin]

So Grissom's 2024 xOBA per Savant is .271 and his xSLG is .317.

 

His Savant numbers seem to confirm he's been both unlucky and not very good.

 

Yes. His numbers as cited do include some bad luck, which isn’t hard to find. His BABIP is ridiculously low. He’s below league average BABIP for both groundballs and line drives.

 

His expected slugging is low, as he has yet to show any power. That isn’t likely a luck factor. Could be related to his flu recovery. Could be he’s just not much of a power hitter…

[mvp 78]

Yes. His numbers as cited do include some bad luck, which isn’t hard to find. His BABIP is ridiculously low. He’s below league average BABIP for both groundballs and line drives.

 

His expected slugging is low, as he has yet to show any power. That isn’t likely a luck factor. Could be related to his flu recovery. Could be he’s just not much of a power hitter…

 

Hard to tap into much power with bad hammies.

[Bellhorn04]

Hard to tap into much power with bad hammies.

 

Right, but he exhibited no power last year either, and no power in his last 15 games in 2022.

[mvp 78]

Right, but he exhibited no power last year either, and no power in his last 15 games in 2022.

 

Oh s***. No power in the LAST 15 GAMES OF 2022!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mvp 78]

In 2023, Grissom led his AAA squad with 501 SLG. He wasn't exactly bashing HR's, but hitting in Gwinnett will do that to you.

 

Home: 1 HR, 441 SLG, 820 OPS

Away: 7 HR, 550 SLG, 999 OPS

[Bellhorn04]

Oh s***. No power in the LAST 15 GAMES OF 2022!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

220 consecutive MLB PA's without a home run, and only a handful of EBH's. If that doesn't raise any concerns about his power, fine.

 

Even in 2022 his hard hit % and exit velocity were way below average.

Edited July 8, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[Maxbialystock]

220 consecutive MLB PA's without a home run, and only a handful of EBH's. If that doesn't raise any concerns about his power, fine.

 

Even in 2022 his hard hit % and exit velocity were way below average.

 

I'm beginning to think that the key factor in the Sale deal was the willingness of the Braves to give him the 3 year deal (2024 plus 2 more) Sale insisted upon. The Sox almost certainly thought that was a horrible idea, so much so they were willing to sweeten the deal with $17M this year.

 

Grissom was/is just someone Breslow could claim would pay off in the future. After he undergoes hamstring replacement surgery.

[Nick]

Sox not the only team struggling with starting pitching.

 

Yankees starters were 35-13 after first 72 games. They lead the majors with the lowest ERA.

 

But during their 5-15 tailspin, the starters are 3-13.

 

Everyone needs starting pitching.

Edited July 9, 2024 by Nick

[Old Red]

I'm beginning to think that the key factor in the Sale deal was the willingness of the Braves to give him the 3 year deal (2024 plus 2 more) Sale insisted upon. The Sox almost certainly thought that was a horrible idea, so much so they were willing to sweeten the deal with $17M this year.

 

Grissom was/is just someone Breslow could claim would pay off in the future. After he undergoes hamstring replacement surgery.

Sale didn’t get a three year contract from the Braves. He got a two year contract with a club option for a third year. He was due $27.5M this year, but $10M of that was to be deferred to 2039. Now he gets $16M this year, which is actually a pay cut, and the Red Sox are paying the Braves $17M, so it’s a free deal for the Braves. Next year the Braves pay him $22M, so Sale ends up with $38M guaranteed instead of $27.5M guaranteed, which $10M was deferred until 2039.

[notin]

220 consecutive MLB PA's without a home run, and only a handful of EBH's. If that doesn't raise any concerns about his power, fine.

 

Even in 2022 his hard hit % and exit velocity were way below average.

 

It might raise concerns but it shouldn’t lead to conclusions.

 

It could be as simple as making adjustments, which is harder to do in 323 PAs spread out over 3 years than if they were all in one.

 

He’s 23 years old, and he’s got limited MLB action spread out over 3 years. Why are you trying to draw conclusions from this extremely limited data?

[Bellhorn04]

It might raise concerns but it shouldn’t lead to conclusions.

 

It could be as simple as making adjustments, which is harder to do in 323 PAs spread out over 3 years than if they were all in one.

 

He’s 23 years old, and he’s got limited MLB action spread out over 3 years. Why are you trying to draw conclusions from this extremely limited data?

 

I'm not drawing conclusions, I'm just jabbering like I always do. I tend to get obsessed about some things. This year it's the Sale-Grissom trade. Some of it is pushing back against this being a slam-dunk great trade for the Sox. I've been on Sons of Sam Horn a lot lately and a lot of those folks were absolutely thrilled by it. And Grissom's limited MLB numbers were used as evidence that the guy has already proven he can rake at the MLB level. When I dug deeper into the numbers I was not so impressed.

[mvp 78]

220 consecutive MLB PA's without a home run, and only a handful of EBH's. If that doesn't raise any concerns about his power, fine.

 

Even in 2022 his hard hit % and exit velocity were way below average.

 

Now do Jarren Duran through age 25. I'm not saying Grissom is going to work out, but he's only 23. He was awful this year because he was injured and had no Spring Training. Hard to really take note of that sample at all. If he was on SoxProspects, he'd be in the top 10, but towards the back end. He's an ok prospect, but he's not a can't miss kinda guy.

[mvp 78]

I'm not drawing conclusions, I'm just jabbering like I always do. I tend to get obsessed about some things. This year it's the Sale-Grissom trade. Some of it is pushing back against this being a slam-dunk great trade for the Sox. I've been on Sons of Sam Horn a lot lately and a lot of those folks were absolutely thrilled by it. And Grissom's limited MLB numbers were used as evidence that the guy has already proven he can rake at the MLB level. When I dug deeper into the numbers I was not so impressed.

 

It was never a slam dunk trade. Old Red should spend some time at SOSH and report back. Maybe he'd be nicer to us.

[Bellhorn04]

Now do Jarren Duran through age 25. I'm not saying Grissom is going to work out, but he's only 23. He was awful this year because he was injured and had no Spring Training. Hard to really take note of that sample at all. If he was on SoxProspects, he'd be in the top 10, but towards the back end. He's an ok prospect, but he's not a can't miss kinda guy.

 

Yes, that's what it looks like, he's an OK prospect. We got 10 million and an OK prospect. Some folks talked like Grissom was going to be the answer at second base for the next 6 years.

[mvp 78]

Yes, that's what it looks like, he's an OK prospect. We got 10 million and an OK prospect. Some folks talked like Grissom was going to be the answer at second base for the next 6 years.

 

There were questions about his defense before he even signed. Even if he hit the s*** out of the ball, he might not have stuck there. Reports out of camp weren't all that favorable and that he may have needed to be pushed to corner OF. Merloni spoke about not liking his approach at 2b. Maybe he ends up being another UTIL guy? I think he still has some value so he could be a guy that is spun in another trade.

[notin]

Yes, that's what it looks like, he's an OK prospect. We got 10 million and an OK prospect. Some folks talked like Grissom was going to be the answer at second base for the next 6 years.

 

Well what is the going rate for 35yo pitchers who've only managed 150 IP in the past 4 years?

[Bellhorn04]

Well what is the going rate for 35yo pitchers who've only managed 150 IP in the past 4 years?

 

Right, and Chris Sale is just any 35 year old pitcher, just like he's showing...

 

There's no perfect comp for Sale, but you've got Tyler Glasnow and Jacob deGrom as examples of guys coming off more than one injury-decimated season, and the going rate was pretty darn high.

Edited July 9, 2024 by Bellhorn04