A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Hugh2]

A blue chip SS who will need to move off position, has a platoon split and struggles with offspeed pitches. He could bring a nice return though.

 

Mayer may need to move off of position, but he's probably going to be good at short stop for the front half of his career. Probably right around the time Casas goes to free agency, you can slide Mayer over to 3B, Devers to 1B and call up the 2024 draftee to play SS.

[mvp 78]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2024/07/2024draftpreview.html

 

We got a draft comin up this weekend. Here are some names to look out for

 

Only highlighting one college arm? Yikes.

[Old Red]

Unless Vaughn Grissom shows up healthy.

 

I don’t see Mayer getting traded anytime soon. He’s been the chosen one since he was drafted. Story Land’s contract is for 3 more years healthy, or not. I know there is lots of worry on here about who gets traded, loses playing time, or sent back down, but like I’ve said many times that things tend to work themselves out. It sounds good that Mayer, Story, Grissom, and DHam would all be healthy, and playing good at the same time, and on the team. If that happens at some point it would be a good problem to have, but then again things tend to work themselves out.

[mvp 78]

Mayer may need to move off of position, but he's probably going to be good at short stop for the front half of his career. Probably right around the time Casas goes to free agency, you can slide Mayer over to 3B, Devers to 1B and call up the 2024 draftee to play SS.

 

I think Sox are overloaded at LHB. If they needed to move a top level prospect, Mayer seemed like the best guy to move to me. I'd keep Teel and Anthony. Anthony has the highest ceiling. Teel has the highest floor.

[Hugh2]

Only highlighting one college arm? Yikes.

 

The top of this draft this year is loaded with college bats. I'd take a college bat over a HS arm all day long, at least in the first round......after the first round I flip.

 

I can see them going position player at 12, and then drafting more pitching than typical the rest of the way.

[mvp 78]

Hindsight is always 20/20 but if we traded Duran during this past offseason we may be seriously regretting right now. He probably wouldn't command the type of return a guy who is on pace for an 8 FWar season would.

 

Which I suppose, from a certain perspective means that you trade him this offseason to maximize his trade value. If one wanted to trade him, which I do not.

 

Or he goes to a field that doesn't allow him to have an 884 Home OPS considering how lefty friendly Fenway can be. Butterfly man could be impacted by the butterfly effect in a trade and perform worse elsewhere.

[mvp 78]

The top of this draft this year is loaded with college bats. I'd take a college bat over a HS arm all day long, at least in the first round......after the first round I flip.

 

I can see them going position player at 12, and then drafting more pitching than typical the rest of the way.

 

As long as it's a SS, I'm good with it.

[Old Red]

Or he goes to a field that doesn't allow him to have an 884 Home OPS considering how lefty friendly Fenway can be. Butterfly man could be impacted by the butterfly effect in a trade and perform worse elsewhere.

 

Quite a transformation the Butterfly Man has made the last two years.

[Hugh2]

Or he goes to a field that doesn't allow him to have an 884 Home OPS considering how lefty friendly Fenway can be. Butterfly man could be impacted by the butterfly effect in a trade and perform worse elsewhere.

 

Ok, sure. Still doesn't mean his value is much higher now than it was before this season.

[Hugh2]

As long as it's a SS, I'm good with it.

 

I kind of want it to be a short stop just to see Sox nation go crazy.

 

Moore has been mocked to them a LOT, but he's a second baseman.

 

There's been some talk of teams going pitching in the top ten and one of the top position players falling to the Sox, particularly one Konnor Griffin. I think Nick Kurtz could fall to the Sox as well, he may be Tristan Casas 2.0

 

For those obsessed with the Sox having to take a pitcher with their first pick I certianly would be excited about a Trey Yesavage. Wish he had a different first name, but at least he's a college pitcher.

[mvp 78]

I kind of want it to be a short stop just to see Sox nation go crazy.

 

Moore has been mocked to them a LOT, but he's a second baseman.

 

There's been some talk of teams going pitching in the top ten and one of the top position players falling to the Sox, particularly one Konnor Griffin. I think Nick Kurtz could fall to the Sox as well, he may be Tristan Casas 2.0

 

For those obsessed with the Sox having to take a pitcher with their first pick I certianly would be excited about a Trey Yesavage. Wish he had a different first name, but at least he's a college pitcher.

 

Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif come on down!

 

What about switch pitcher Cijntje?

 

1. Not enough vowels in that name for it to be real.

 

2. Sox were pioneers in switch pitching having Greg Harris back in the day.

[Hugh2]

Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif come on down!

 

What about switch pitcher Cijntje?

 

1. Not enough vowels in that name for it to be real.

 

2. Sox were pioneers in switch pitching having Greg Harris back in the day.

 

 

Sure, if he falls to 50, but I wouldn't want to take him at 12.

[Hugh2]

If you want to talk about 2-way players I'd rather see a position/pitcher player taken. Would really like to see more of that. I understand Ohtani is a unicorn but they don't all have to be Ohtani, imagine how much more valuable a guy like Rob Refsnyder would be if he also could come out and pitch the 7th for you. I also like the ideal of guys being able to move back and forth between two positions E.G. CF/SS C/2B etc etc.

 

I think Griffin can be developed as a SS and a Cfer. His ceiling could be Rafaela with a better hit tool.

[sk7326]

The top of this draft this year is loaded with college bats. I'd take a college bat over a HS arm all day long, at least in the first round......after the first round I flip.

 

I can see them going position player at 12, and then drafting more pitching than typical the rest of the way.

 

It's also not a good crop overall - after the quality of last year, it looks like a big dropoff this year. Of course there will be good players from the class - there always are.

 

As far as the reporting goes (and the mocks are about intel not how they are rated on ESPN or Athletic big board) - based on the reporting/intel from McDaniel and Law, some names to watch

 

Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson, MS - the top rated high school position player, per Law, tools to go #1 overall, but still raw and would have been the sort of guy to send to Lowell before MLB got rid of short season

Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee - Not overwhelming tools-wise, but the Statcast models elevate him

Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina - top college arm in this area

Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest

 

Because there is no iron lock superstar in this draft (outside of Condon, maybe) - the bonus demands could really screw up the draft order. One nice thing is the Sox are not misers there - and they have had guys fall to them (like Teel last year) due to other teams portfolio managing bonuses and such.

[Dipre]

A blue chip SS who will need to move off position, has a platoon split and struggles with offspeed pitches. He could bring a nice return though.

 

So you're saying a very young player still honing his craft in the minors has a platoon split and isn't yet handling offspeed at an MLB level? Oh the humanity......

[mvp 78]

So you're saying a very young player still honing his craft in the minors has a platoon split and isn't yet handling offspeed at an MLB level? Oh the humanity......

 

The platoon issue and offspeed stuff has been noted by scouts going back a few years. Feel free to be made at me about it though. I was just listing the reasons that I think he's more expendable than Teel or Anthony.

[sk7326]

A blue chip SS who will need to move off position, has a platoon split and struggles with offspeed pitches. He could bring a nice return though.

 

There is no evidence that he can't stay as an above average to plus SS

 

There is a platoon split ... but we also have a .837 OPS as one a young regular in Double-A. The only real reason to be cool on him is his injury history. I will also note that the offspeed pitch issue has just not had time to get resolved because he has just been hurt. The big thing this year is that he makes it through a full season.

[mvp 78]

There is no evidence that he can't stay as an above average to plus SS

 

There is a platoon split ... but we also have a .837 OPS as one a young regular in Double-A. The only real reason to be cool on him is his injury history. I will also note that the offspeed pitch issue has just not had time to get resolved because he has just been hurt. The big thing this year is that he makes it through a full season.

 

The only evidence is that scouts say it, SoxProspects say it and his defense is just average to slightly above average right now. It's only going to get worse.

[Dipre]

The platoon issue and offspeed stuff has been noted by scouts going back a few years. Feel free to be made at me about it though. I was just listing the reasons that I think he's more expendable than Teel or Anthony.

 

I'm not "made" at you. I'm not an italian mob boss. I just like Mayer better than you do, and understand as well as you do, that prospect development is an art and not a science. A lefty hitting prospect having platoon splits and trouble with secondary pitches is not uncommon, and their ability to overcome those issues to an extent is why they are in the minors. He's slow at SS because of size, but he has good overall athleticism and arm. In terms of importance to the system, I'd go Teel-Mayer-Anthony, mostly because of positional value.

[Dipre]

The only evidence is that scouts say it, SoxProspects say it and his defense is just average to slightly above average right now. It's only going to get worse.

 

What do you base this on?

[moonslav59]

FWAR since June 1:

1.9 Duran

1.3 Devers

O.8 O’Neill

O.7 Wong, Valdez,Rafaela

0.5 DHam

0.2 Romy, Ref, Abreu

0.1 Smith

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

June1>>>

 

0.9 Pivetta

O.6 Jansen

0.4 Houck, Bello,Kelly

0.3Crawford,Criswell, Booser

0.2 Martin

0.1 Bern, Wink, slaten

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

It's also not a good crop overall - after the quality of last year, it looks like a big dropoff this year. Of course there will be good players from the class - there always are.

 

As far as the reporting goes (and the mocks are about intel not how they are rated on ESPN or Athletic big board) - based on the reporting/intel from McDaniel and Law, some names to watch

 

Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson, MS - the top rated high school position player, per Law, tools to go #1 overall, but still raw and would have been the sort of guy to send to Lowell before MLB got rid of short season

Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee - Not overwhelming tools-wise, but the Statcast models elevate him

Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina - top college arm in this area

Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest

 

Because there is no iron lock superstar in this draft (outside of Condon, maybe) - the bonus demands could really screw up the draft order. One nice thing is the Sox are not misers there - and they have had guys fall to them (like Teel last year) due to other teams portfolio managing bonuses and such.

 

@redsoxstats

BA has finally changed course for the Sox in the mocks, this morning going:

 

12. Red Sox — Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

 

Yesavage throws 94-97 with good ride on his fastball, and his slider this year had a 57% whiff rate and his split-change got 55% whiffs, both in the 98/99th percentile.

 

I like that profile!

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

BA has finally changed course for the Sox in the mocks, this morning going:

 

12. Red Sox — Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

 

Yesavage throws 94-97 with good ride on his fastball, and his slider this year had a 57% whiff rate and his split-change got 55% whiffs, both in the 98/99th percentile.

 

I like that profile!

 

No SS drafted first will make many happy.

[notin]

No SS drafted first will make many happy.

 

No idea why people get worked up about that, especially with high school shortstops. Would people be happier if we grabbed a worse 18yo athlete solely because he played a different position that he’s going to be switched from?

[moonslav59]

We have 11 batters over .700 since June 1st:

 

1.003 Devers

.973 Valdez (recently demoted)

.923?Duran

 

.881 O’Neill

.801 Rafaela

.799 Romy

.797 Wong

.790 Refsnyder

 

.758 Abreu

.738 Smith

.703 DHam

 

.693 Yoshida

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sk7326]

The only evidence is that scouts say it, SoxProspects say it and his defense is just average to slightly above average right now. It's only going to get worse.

 

SoxProspects also projects him to be able to stay there ... Again, life comes at you fast ... but Mayer's biggest weakness is that he just has not been healthy enough. Hopefully this year is a good sign.

[sk7326]

No idea why people get worked up about that, especially with high school shortstops. Would people be happier if we grabbed a worse 18yo athlete solely because he played a different position that he’s going to be switched from?

 

Yeah, it's silly. Baseball draft should just be best prospect all the time - though taking high school pitching early is a recipe for disappointment. The SS thing to me is - get good athletes, and they will figure it out.

[moonslav59]

Sox have the 4th best team OPs since June 1 at .801.

 

Our staff has held its ground to some extent:

7th in xFIP since 6/1.

[mvp 78]

No SS drafted first will make many happy.

 

They'll need to get one to replace Mayer in a few years anyway!