Chris Sale traded to Braves

[Bellhorn04]

It actually goes beyond “cheap”. I’ve repeatedly highlighted a list of veteran SOs who took minor league deals, all with other teams…

 

So...moronic works, doesn't it?

[Bellhorn04]

Getting Paxton was a good move. Not getting anyone else is the problem.

 

And that is by now a rather familiar refrain.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying the trade made no sense. It makes sense that Sale was still a significant injury risk and it makes sense that Grissom was a prospect with significant potential.

 

What still doesn't make sense is the team's overall approach to the rotation - thinking that removing Sale and adding Giolito was going to be enough. That did not make sense at all, in fact some might call it ridiculous, moronic etc.

 

And since I actually think Breslow is a very smart and capable executive, my tendency is to believe it's the payroll budget that led to this moronic approach.

 

And I believe the fact that they did nothing to replace their big addition when he quickly went down for the season strongly supports the cheap/moronic theory.

 

I'm 100% on board with the idea that it was a major swing and miss by the FO on not adding more pitching during the winter, when it is actually cheaper. I think almost all of us agreed on that. After it was know Gio was out for the year, adding nothing can rightfully be called "moronic."

 

On the surface, this didn't look horrible, last winter, but it still looked woefully short on depth:

 

Lost from 2023:

IP (team ranking) Pitcher ERA

103 (5th) Sale 4.30

96 (6th Paxton 4.50

55 (9th) Kluber 7.04 (addition by subtraction)

48 (12th) Murphy 4.91 (to injury)

47 (13th) Schreiber 3.86

More additions by subtractions that combined for 190 IP!

31 (15th) Bleier 5.28

30 Llovera 5.46

27 K Ort 6.26

23 Walter 6.26 (to injury/farm)

21 Braiser 7.29

18 Garza 7.36

11 Joely 6.55 (to farm)

8 Bearclaw 12.91

21 combined Dermody, Scott, Faria, Lamet

 

This is nearly 550 IP lost from 2023- about half of those IP were at replacement level or worse, so we were looking at the need to replace 250 or so IP with equal or better IP than Sale, Paxton & Schreiber (about a 4.30 ERA combined.)

 

Brez & Co. added this:

 

Giolito: expected to get 175+ IP but got zero

Criswell: viewed as SP depth and has done well w 71 IP at 3.80.

Anderson: viewed as SP depth and did not do well w 52 IP at 4.85.

Slaten: was maybe viewed as the 4th or 5th best RP, but became our #2 before injury (42 IP at 3.38)

Weissert: was expected to make the 8 man pen. Was demoted (47 IP/4.24)

I Campbell showed signs of being pretty good w SEA but not here.

Booser was one of the few bright spots.

Hendriks: expected to join the team in AUG, but looks like maybe Sept.

Keller, Horn, Uwasawa, Luetge, Mills plus more add-ons after the year started.

Farm pitching depth added, this winter (not ML ready):

Sandlin, Fitts, Benitez, Judice

 

This fell way short of what we needed, and still need, now.

 

[Bellhorn04]

This fell way short of what we needed, and still need, now.

 

It's as simple as that. And it's becoming habitual.

[notin]

So...moronic works, doesn't it?

 

I’m ok with “moronic.” I was going for “stubborn”…

[moonslav59]

Getting Paxton was a good move. Not getting anyone else is the problem.

 

Now if Sims and Garcia pushes Criswell and/or Winckowski back into the rotation, that’s at least something. Also if it limits all SPs to 5-6 IP max per start…

 

These are the pitchers we added or should see added to the 26 before September:

 

Paxton

Garcia

Sims

Martin

Slaten

Hendriks

Maybe Weissert, I Campbell or Keller get another look.

 

[moonslav59]

It's as simple as that. And it's becoming habitual.

 

The budget was only part of the problem.

 

1. The little money we have spent of pitching has been largely misspent:

$55M/6 Bello extension: TBD, but not off to a good start.

$39M/2 Giolito: Missed first season, totally

$32M/2 Jansen: was a very good signing by Bloom.

$19M/4 Whitlock extension: TBD (2 years to go)

$19M/2 Barnes extension: Bust (traded w cash for Bleier)

$18M/2 Martin: started off as a great signing for '23, but...

$10M/1 Kluber: Bust for '23.

$10M/1 Richards: Bust for '22.

$10M/2 Hendriks: was more about 2025 not 2024.

$10M/2 Paxton: worked out okay.

 

We did better with the $3-9M deals:

$7M/1 Wacha

$6M/1 Perez I

$5M/1 R Hill

$5M/1 Perez II

$4M x 2 Diekman (unloaded contract for McGuire)

$3M Strahm (one of Bloom's best "bargain deals.")

 

2. We have not spent much on hitting, either, but it looks like we'd have done better spending it all on pitching, assuming we spent it better. (The Yoshida and Story signings jump off the page. Renfroe, Turner, Duvall and taking on O'Neill's contract not so much.)

 

 

3. Winters are the time to improve the staff and staff depth- not the deadline. The deadline should only be needed to fill gaps caused by multiple injuries or unexpected downturns by key players.

 

[Bellhorn04]

The budget was only part of the problem.

 

They don't allocate enough budget to starting pitching. To me that's been the biggest problem for several years, whether it's being cheap or being stupid or a combination thereof I can't say 100%.

[notin]

The budget was only part of the problem.

 

1. The little money we have spent of pitching has been largely misspent:

$55M/6 Bello extension: TBD, but not off to a good start.

$39M/2 Giolito: Missed first season, totally

$32M/2 Jansen: was a very good signing by Bloom.

$19M/4 Whitlock extension: TBD (2 years to go)

$19M/2 Barnes extension: Bust (traded w cash for Bleier)

$18M/2 Martin: started off as a great signing for '23, but...

$10M/1 Kluber: Bust for '23.

$10M/1 Richards: Bust for '22.

$10M/2 Hendriks: was more about 2025 not 2024.

$10M/2 Paxton: worked out okay.

 

We did better with the $3-9M deals:

$7M/1 Wacha

$6M/1 Perez I

$5M/1 R Hill

$5M/1 Perez II

$4M x 2 Diekman (unloaded contract for McGuire)

$3M Strahm (one of Bloom's best "bargain deals.")

 

2. We have not spent much on hitting, either, but it looks like we'd have done better spending it all on pitching, assuming we spent it better. (The Yoshida and Story signings jump off the page. Renfroe, Turner, Duvall and taking on O'Neill's contract not so much.)

 

 

3. Winters are the time to improve the staff and staff depth- not the deadline. The deadline should only be needed to fill gaps caused by multiple injuries or unexpected downturns by key players.

 

 

I’d argue the budget was a non-issue.

 

Teams know before the season they will need at a minimum 8-10 starting pitchers lined up. I’ve heard Theo Epstein say this.

 

Even before decisions simply didn’t work out, the Sox depth chart was light. And kept including Garrett Whitlock, a situation where lessons refuse to be learned. (I’m starting to wonder if Cora isn’t somewhat at fault there, given that everyone else involved in previous years is gone.)

 

Having a big budget does make it easier to fill te depth chart, but having a small one doesn’t make it impossible…

[moonslav59]

They don't allocate enough budget to starting pitching. To me that's been the biggest problem for several years, whether it's being cheap or being stupid or a combination thereof I can't say 100%.

 

Well, when you look at my list of our highest paid pitcher signings since the Sale and Nate extensions, which both we not great or even good, one can understand the reluctance to keep throwing money at pitching, only to watch them fail or get hurt.

 

Of course, you "get what you pay for," and when paying $10M/1 for a pitcher, what is expected?

 

Had we spent the Story and Yoshida money on long term pitching deals, and guessed rightly, we'd be much better off, but what if we guessed wrongly, like we mostly have been since and including Sale's deal?

 

I'm not making excuses. I think we should have spent way more on pitching than hittine, especially since we don't draft a lot of pitchers or develop them well. This HAS BEEN a big mistake for 6 years. (Yes, I count 2019, because we did not replace Kimbrel and Kelly, in kind.)

[moonslav59]

I’d argue the budget was a non-issue.

 

Teams know before the season they will need at a minimum 8-10 starting pitchers lined up. I’ve heard Theo Epstein say this.

 

Even before decisions simply didn’t work out, the Sox depth chart was light. And kept including Garrett Whitlock, a situation where lessons refuse to be learned. (I’m starting to wonder if Cora isn’t somewhat at fault there, given that everyone else involved in previous years is gone.)

 

Having a big budget does make it easier to fill te depth chart, but having a small one doesn’t make it impossible…

 

Agreed. We might have swung and missed on many, but signing 3-4 more guys like Criswell could have easily been done.

 

I know you have been out in front on this, for years and even into the 2024 season.

 

I agree on the mistake of counting Whitlock as SP'er depth. I'm not sure counting Wink as SP'er depth was a good idea, either.

 

There is some debate over the winter SP'er depth chart rankings, especially who was #5 and 6, Houck or Whitlock, but here is my view on what it was:

 

1. Giolito (lost for season in time to be able to replace him)

2. Bello

3. Pivetta

4. Crawford

5. Whitlock

6. Houck (was actually very decent "depth," but only if you accept Whit as a true #5.)

7. Winckowski

8. Criswell

9. Anderson

10. Murphy & Mata (Walter) were very questionable as SP'er depth

Farm (not all ML ready or healthy) Gambrell, Fitts, J Alexander, Van Belle, Wikelman, Penrod, Perales

 

(We added Keller in May and Paxton in Aug.)

 

[notin]

They don't allocate enough budget to starting pitching. To me that's been the biggest problem for several years, whether it's being cheap or being stupid or a combination thereof I can't say 100%.

 

I’d argue that’s a different problem. I mean, the Sox dropped $38mill on Giolito. The defending champion Rangers spent $28mill on Tyler Mahle, Mike Lorenzen, Jose Urena, Aiden Sampson, and Danny Duffy.

 

Are the Rangers the team that didn’t do enough here? They spent $10mill less, after all…

[Bellhorn04]

I’d argue that’s a different problem. I mean, the Sox dropped $38mill on Giolito. The defending champion Rangers spent $28mill on Tyler Mahle, Mike Lorenzen, Jose Urena, Aiden Sampson, and Danny Duffy.

 

Are the Rangers the team that didn’t do enough here? They spent $10mill less, after all…

 

Yes but the Rangers also have deGrom, Scherzer and Eovaldi on the payroll, so they have already allocated a ton of money to the rotation. Compare their investment in the rotation to the Sox investment.

[moonslav59]

I’d argue that’s a different problem. I mean, the Sox dropped $38mill on Giolito. The defending champion Rangers spent $28mill on Tyler Mahle, Mike Lorenzen, Jose Urena, Aiden Sampson, and Danny Duffy.

 

Are the Rangers the team that didn’t do enough here? They spent $10mill less, after all…

 

Yes, but on paper, they also had a better staff going into the winter.

 

In hindsight, they did better, due to Gio's injury and Sale's resurgence, but we didn't just add Gio: we added:

 

Slaten

Hendriks & Fulmer (2025)

Weissert

I Campbell

Criswell

Anderson

Booser

Uwasawa

Horn

Luetge (just opted out)

Joely & Mills

 

and pitching farm depth:

Sandlin

Fitts

Judice

 

Brez did swing on several pitchers, but only Slaten and Criswell look like 2024 hits.

[Maxbialystock]

Yes, but on paper, they also had a better staff going into the winter.

 

In hindsight, they did better, due to Gio's injury and Sale's resurgence, but we didn't just add Gio: we added:

 

Slaten

Hendriks & Fulmer (2025)

Weissert

I Campbell

Criswell

Anderson

Booser

Uwasawa

Horn

Luetge (just opted out)

Joely & Mills

 

and pitching farm depth:

Sandlin

Fitts

Judice

 

Brez did swing on several pitchers, but only Slaten and Criswell look like 2024 hits.

 

If memory serves, it was the Sox rotation--Houck, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford, and Whitlock--who made the biggest difference early in the season. And it was the rotation that Breslow decimated by dumping Sale and signing Giolito.

 

Also, these are the current top six pitching WAR's on the Sox: Houck 2.8, Crawford 2.1, Kelly 1.3, Jansen 1.2, Pivetta 1.2, Bernardino 1.0.

 

I still think Breslow did better than the Rangers CBO because the Rangers team ERA has plummeted from 6th last year to 15th this year, and the Sox team ERA, now 13th, is still better than last year's 19th. Sox ERA has improved from 4.52 to 3.97. Of course, the season is a long way from over.

Edited August 4, 2024 by Maxbialystock

[Duran Is The Man]

I'm not saying the trade made no sense. It makes sense that Sale was still a significant injury risk and it makes sense that Grissom was a prospect with significant potential.

 

What still doesn't make sense is the team's overall approach to the rotation - thinking that removing Sale and adding Giolito was going to be enough. That did not make sense at all, in fact some might call it ridiculous, moronic etc.

 

And since I actually think Breslow is a very smart and capable executive, my tendency is to believe it's the payroll budget that led to this moronic approach.

 

And I believe the fact that they did nothing to replace their big addition when he quickly went down for the season strongly supports the cheap/moronic theory.

 

that's a nice way of saying that John Henry is a greedy s*** head.

[moonslav59]

that's a nice way of saying that John Henry is a greedy s*** head.

 

I do think greed is a major aspect of the choice not to spend more.

 

I wonder how many teams spent more than $100M on 3 players, since the winter/spring of 2021/2022.

 

Devers $313M

Story $140M

Yoshida $100M+ counting fees

 

To me, the big mistake was all these 3 are hitters, and the gap between the $100M spent on Yoshida to the next signing was over $60M.

 

$36-39M on Giolito & Jansen.

 

Then, a $17M drop to $18-19M for Martin and Barnes.

 

We skipped the mid-level deals for SP'ers, too, with nothing more than $19M x 2 for any SP'er since the Sale & Nate extensions before 2019.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

to get back on the topic of this thread-- Chris Sale stats 13-3 .271 era 155 K's in 123 ip .0951 whip. and the Sox are paying a good chunk of his $$$ great trade Red Sox

[Duran Is The Man]

I do think greed is a major aspect of the choice not to spend more.

 

I wonder how many teams spent more than $100M on 3 players, since the winter/spring of 2021/2022.

 

Devers $313M

Story $140M

Yoshida $100M+ counting fees

 

To me, the big mistake was all these 3 are hitters, and the gap between the $100M spent on Yoshida to the next signing was over $60M.

 

$36-39M on Giolito & Jansen.

 

Then, a $17M drop to $18-19M for Martin and Barnes.

 

We skipped the mid-level deals for SP'ers, too, with nothing more than $19M x 2 for any SP'er since the Sale & Nate extensions before 2019.

 

 

they have money to spend on pitching but didn't. i know they have to have a budget, but this is the Boston f***ing Red Sox. the FO needs to act like it and not like they're broke-ass Tampa or Oakland.

[moonslav59]

they have money to spend on pitching but didn't. i know they have to have a budget, but this is the Boston f***ing Red Sox. the FO needs to act like it and not like they're broke-ass Tampa or Oakland.

 

For sure, but the GM can't spend what they don't give him, and the GM has spent most of the budget on everyday players (Devers, Story & Yoshida) and not pitching.

 

That was my point.

[Randy Red Sox]

to get back on the topic of this thread-- Chris Sale stats 13-3 .271 era 155 K's in 123 ip .0951 whip. and the Sox are paying a good chunk of his $$$ great trade Red Sox

 

i repeat

[Duran Is The Man]

For sure, but the GM can't spend what they don't give him, and the GM has spent most of the budget on everyday players (Devers, Story & Yoshida) and not pitching.

 

That was my point.

 

and a valid point for sure.

[Old Red]

Sale with a nice 7 inning 3 hit 12 K shutout last night.

[notin]

Sale with a nice 7 inning 3 hit 12 K shutout last night.

 

And if Sale had been able to throw even one outing like that since 2019, he’d probably still be here…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

they have money to spend on pitching but didn't. i know they have to have a budget, but this is the Boston f***ing Red Sox. the FO needs to act like it and not like they're broke-ass Tampa or Oakland.

 

The irony -- or morony for Sox fans -- is that Billionaire John Henry hired guys from both their front offices to run his club... like theirs.

 

Someone seriously needs to tell John -- if you're not broke, don't fix it.

[Bellhorn04]

And if Sale had been able to throw even one outing like that since 2019, he’d probably still be here…

 

Sale's Game Score last night was 83, his best of the season.

 

He did have an 80 last year.

 

He had a 3 game stretch in 2023 where he pitched 21 innings with 27 K's and 3 BB's.

 

The flashes of dominance were still there. Otherwise the Braves would likely not have been interested.

[Randy Red Sox]

Sale with a nice 7 inning 3 hit 12 K shutout last night.

 

we need to keep telling people we won that trade

[mvp 78]

we need to keep telling people we won that trade

 

Grissom has a 686 OPS in WOO and should be down there for the rest of the year. I think we can probably stop with the constant Sale updates. If Verdugo was playing well, we'd hear about him all the time too. Since he sucks this season, that trade has been ignored.

[notin]

Sale's Game Score last night was 83, his best of the season.

 

He did have an 80 last year.

 

He had a 3 game stretch in 2023 where he pitched 21 innings with 27 K's and 3 BB's.

 

The flashes of dominance were still there. Otherwise the Braves would likely not have been interested.

 

Flashes, yes. But even the Braves wouldn’t give up anything for him unless the Sox paid the bulk of the fare. And Sale did injure his shoulder shortly after that game.

 

Again, with Sale it was never a question of ability. But there were questions of durability and availability…

[Old Red]

Grissom has a 686 OPS in WOO and should be down there for the rest of the year. I think we can probably stop with the constant Sale updates. If Verdugo was playing well, we'd hear about him all the time too. Since he sucks this season, that trade has been ignored.

 

I’m pretty sure the Sale updates will continue the rest of the year. The Big difference between Sale, and Dugy is that the Red Sox could have really used Sale’s pitching, and as for Dugy he isn’t missed in the OF at all for the Red Sox, so there is a big difference there.