A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

After the Bear Claw Game, most fans and media can see their ever-lasting summer fading fast, and are now calling the season a failure before mathematical elimination.

 

If the Red Sox finish with a winning record or even in fourth place, it's an improvement over last year. But if they don't qualify for the postseason, most of us here view 2023 as a failure -- at least in the fact that Boston would fail to make the playoffs.

 

As for your grades, I'm not sure how you calculated an overall GPA of B-

 

If you assign whole numbers of 4 for As, 3 for Bs, 2 for Cs, and 1 for Ds (0 for Fs); the point total adds to 36... divided by 24 players (or subjects) = a GPA of 1.5.

 

That's a solid D... overall for Chaim Bloom's additions to the roster.

 

Subjectively, I agree with most of your individual grades, except I'd go a little higher on Masa and a little lower on Duvall. A guy with a .300 batting average most of the season -- even without a lot of power -- contributes to the offense, and while a lot of fans are really down on Yoshida for August, he actually had a higher OPS in July than Duvall (who has had two hot streaks, but never had an .800 OPS for an entire six-month season in his career).

 

Those two, along with Turner, Jansen and Martin, have definitely compensated on the report card for the Ws -- subjects from last year that Withdrew or Went away...

 

A count the revolving foor of our 8th RP slot as one grade, not 8 grades.

 

I count the players expected to play FT or a lot more than role players.

 

I don't even count the Barnes for Bleier deal, as it was meaningless.

 

The top 6 moves comes to about a 2.2 or a C+.

 

I did not expect much from the other moves, so I barely count them.

 

If I change Yoshida to a C or better, like some seem to be saying, I should, the 6 moves would be a B-.

 

Why not tell me how you grade each of the top 6 moves?

 

I guess one could argue we should count Kike and McGuire- two players added last summer.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately: starring Duvall as the hero, Yoshida as the zero. But with a month to go, they're about even for season contributions.

 

Sure, Duvall has the edge in WAR, but there's no guarantee he'd post positive if he played the entire season. On bb-ref, his career high is 3.3, all the way back in 2016 (bb-ref describes a player at 5+ as "All-Star Quality" and 2+ as a "Starter"). My issue with Duvall isn't so much the player, but Bloom acquiring him to be the centerfielder, where he isn't as good as at the corners, and as we've seen, takes a beating trying to cover ground. Give Duvall credit for all-out effort, but when a guy is on the IL, he's not contributing; though it's not his fault he's out of position.

 

Yoshida has three Es in left, but usually makes the plays he can get to. He has less range than Duvall, who has also missed some plays that other more fleet natural centerfielders make in the majors. Yoshida has a 12% K rate to Duvall's 28%, but has been hurt by a power outage the past month. Still, a guy who was leading the league in batting average during the first half obviously has to be consistent at making contact.

 

If grading, I probably wouldn't give either higher than a C+ because both have had to miss a lot of games for various issues. But I'd like to see if a healthy Duvall can stay hot for an entire year. I also think Yoshida will be a more productive player, at least on offense, next season after the adjustments from this initial campaign in a foreign land.

[Bellhorn04]

What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately: starring Duvall as the hero, Yoshida as the zero. But with a month to go, they're about even for season contributions.

 

Sure, Duvall has the edge in WAR, but there's no guarantee he'd post positive if he played the entire season. On bb-ref, his career high is 3.3, all the way back in 2016 (bb-ref describes a player at 5+ as "All-Star Quality" and 2+ as a "Starter"). My issue with Duvall isn't so much the player, but Bloom acquiring him to be the centerfielder, where he isn't as good as at the corners, and as we've seen, takes a beating trying to cover ground. Give Duvall credit for all-out effort, but when a guy is on the IL, he's not contributing; though it's not his fault he's out of position.

 

Yoshida has three Es in left, but usually makes the plays he can get to. He has less range than Duvall, who has also missed some plays that other more fleet natural centerfielders make in the majors. Yoshida has a 12% K rate to Duvall's 28%, but has been hurt by a power outage the past month. Still, a guy who was leading the league in batting average during the first half obviously has to be consistent at making contact.

 

If grading, I probably wouldn't give either higher than a C+ because both have had to miss a lot of games for various issues. But I'd like to see if a healthy Duvall can stay hot for an entire year. I also think Yoshida will be a more productive player, at least on offense, next season after the adjustments from this initial campaign in a foreign land.

 

Duvall is 15.8 runs above average on offense in 70 games.

Yoshida is 5.4 runs above average on offense in 117 games.

 

One of the things that kills Yoshida's numbers is his speed/baserunning.

 

Duvall is 2.3 runs above average in baserunning.

Yoshida is 4.0 runs below average in baserunning.

 

Yoshida is really slow. He leads the team in grounding into DP's by a considerable margin. He's hit into 18. Devers with more AB's has hit into 10.

[Old Red]

Duvall is 15.8 runs above average on offense in 70 games.

Yoshida is 5.4 runs above average on offense in 117 games.

 

One of the things that kills Yoshida's numbers is his speed/baserunning.

 

Duvall is 2.3 runs above average in baserunning.

Yoshida is 4.0 runs below average in baserunning.

 

Yoshida is really slow. He leads the team in grounding into DP's by a considerable margin. He's hit into 18. Devers with more AB's has hit into 10.

Give Masa a break. Those high pants he wears slows him down when he runs.

[moonslav59]

Duvall is 15.8 runs above average on offense in 70 games.

Yoshida is 5.4 runs above average on offense in 117 games.

 

I found a 70 game sample size where Yoshida did better than Duvall's 70 game sample.

 

4/20 to 7/18

Yoshida was +16.5 on O

 

We don't know what Duvall would look like after 117 games.

 

Good points, though.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

With the Sox now 7 games out of a W/C I say it's time to call up some of these great prospects Bloom has assembled. I'd also sit Dever's ass for a few games. He's had a brutal last week or 2. Of course once the Sox are officially out of it they will win a bunch of meaningless games just to screw up the draft position and Bloom will have to draft another H/S SS with our 1st rd pick.

[Randy Red Sox]

I find this a pointless argument as the Sox have many bigger issues than these 2 guys. they are both actually 2 of Bloom's better pickups but you can say goodbye to Duvall after this year. Hey we hardly got to know ya.

I found a 70 game sample size where Yoshida did better than Duvall's 70 game sample.

 

4/20 to 7/18

Yoshida was +16.5 on O

 

We don't know what Duvall would look like after 117 games.

 

Good points, though.

 

[moonslav59]

I find this a pointless argument as the Sox have many bigger issues than these 2 guys. they are both actually 2 of Bloom's better pickups but you can say goodbye to Duvall after this year. Hey we hardly got to know ya.

 

We do have Jansen and Martin returning, too.

 

When is the last time Bloom had more than 3 guys he added the previous year come back again?

 

Good times ahead!!!

 

LOL

[Randy Red Sox]

Turner will be gone too but I am sure Bloom can add a few veterans on 1 yr deals to replace him all the while getting the Sox to #20 on the MLB payroll

We do have Jansen and Martin returning, too.

 

When is the last time Bloom had more than 3 guys he added the previous year come back again?

 

Good times ahead!!!

 

LOL

[moonslav59]

Turner will be gone too but I am sure Bloom can add a few veterans on 1 yr deals to replace him all the while getting the Sox to #20 on the MLB payroll

 

You have such vivid dreams.

[Duran Is The Man]

You have such vivid dreams.

 

i think those are Bloom's dreams.

[oldtimer]

Who would have thought Casas would be hitting ,263 after the anemic start to the season. I believe he leads the team in OBP. Management ought to work with him to get his weight down a little to make him more agile but he can hit and should improve defensively with a year under his belt.

[moonslav59]

i think those are Bloom's dreams.

 

All GMs dream of cutting salary.

[Randy Red Sox]

Are you telling me that is not going to happen?? Turner and Duvall will both likely want more than a 1 yr deal. Bloom may decide simply to replace them with one of his prospects or he may bring in a veteran on another 1 yr deal. That has been his modus oper endi

You have such vivid dreams.

[moonslav59]

Are you telling me that is not going to happen?? Turner and Duvall will both likely want more than a 1 yr deal. Bloom may decide simply to replace them with one of his prospects or he may bring in a veteran on another 1 yr deal. That has been his modus oper endi

 

You totally missed it.

 

It’s a dream to think any GM wants to cut salary.

 

bTW, while you weren’t looking the MO changed. We had more deals for 2 or more years than one year deals, last winter.

 

I’m not sure what that has to do with the fact that we all likely agree Turner and Duvall will bolt.

[Old Red]

Wildcard standings update. All you need to know is that the Red Sox are now closer to the Yankees in last lace in the Div than anyone ahead of them.

[moonslav59]

Wildcard standings update. All you need to know is that the Red Sox are now closer to the Yankees in last lace in the Div than anyone ahead of them.

 

Thanks for letting us all know exactly what we need to know.

[notin]

Wildcard standings update. All you need to know is that the Red Sox are now closer to the Yankees in last lace in the Div than anyone ahead of them.

 

Team is struggling. Old Red is back to rub that in..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The debate about Yoshida vs Duvall -- at least, on defense -- was settled by Baseball Savant's new stat called Fielding Run Value. Of all position players with at least 400 fielding innings, Yoshida ranks #51 out of 54 leftfielders, while Duvall ranks #48 out of 50 centerfielders.

 

They both suck. But at least they have bad company: Duran ranks #44 of 50, cementing the Sox with the worst centerfielders in baseball. Other lowlights include Casas (#47 of 49), Raffy (#46 0f 51), and of course, Kike (tied for #47 of 47). The only player even middle of the pack is Verdugo, #23 of 51.

 

With Red Sox obits being written before September even begins, posters can lament all the predictable injuries to the rotation, and the predictable damage it did in draining the bullpen. But this club's defense can't be blamed on a season of bad hops -- it was assembled this way by the front office and management.

 

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/how-bad-is-red-sox-defense-even-worse-than-youd-expect/550483/

 

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/alex-cora-details-what-has-gone-wrong-with-the-red-sox

[moonslav59]

Team is struggling. Old Red is back to rub that in..

 

For some odd reason, he has a grind about posting wild card updates more often after wins than losses, or stopping after it hardly matters.

[Bellhorn04]

I have to think Red Sox pitching coach Dave Bush's job might be in jeopardy.

[redsoxrules]

The debate about Yoshida vs Duvall -- at least, on defense -- was settled by Baseball Savant's new stat called Fielding Run Value. Of all position players with at least 400 fielding innings, Yoshida ranks #51 out of 54 leftfielders, while Duvall ranks #48 out of 50 centerfielders.

 

They both suck. But at least they have bad company: Duran ranks #44 of 50, cementing the Sox with the worst centerfielders in baseball. Other lowlights include Casas (#47 of 49), Raffy (#46 0f 51), and of course, Kike (tied for #47 of 47). The only player even middle of the pack is Verdugo, #23 of 51.

 

With Red Sox obits being written before September even begins, posters can lament all the predictable injuries to the rotation, and the predictable damage it did in draining the bullpen. But this club's defense can't be blamed on a season of bad hops -- it was assembled this way by the front office and management.

 

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/how-bad-is-red-sox-defense-even-worse-than-youd-expect/550483/

 

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/alex-cora-details-what-has-gone-wrong-with-the-red-sox

 

The thing is you don't even need to see any advance stats to see this. That's how bad they are defensively.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The thing is you don't even need to see any advance stats to see this. That's how bad they are defensively.

 

I just threw in the links for anyone who may think the inept Little League defense that has turned our stomachs ALL season isn't the main problem with this excuse for a big market big league club...

 

... as if putrid fielding doesn't extend innings, up pitch counts and strain arms on the mound -- nor putting pressure on the offense to press to catch up -- every single game for five straight months.

 

The D in '23 made it impossible to mount any consistent runs at contention.

[Bellhorn04]

As bad as the D is, the team FIP of 4.42 is almost the same as the ERA of 4.48, so let's not be lulled into thinking the pitching has actually been great...

[Old Red]

Thanks for letting us all know exactly what we need to know.

 

No Pom poms? From giddy to s*****?

[moonslav59]

As bad as the D is, the team FIP of 4.42 is almost the same as the ERA of 4.48, so let's not be lulled into thinking the pitching has actually been great...

 

It hasn't been great, but the amount of times they have needed to get 4 or more outs in an inning has been astounding. In many games, it happened in 3 or more innings.

 

BTW, our xFIP is 4.17 (18th ranked and 0.10 from 13th.) Our SIERA is 4.04 (17th ranked and 0.02 from being #15.)

We are 24th in actual ERA- at 4.50.

[moonslav59]

No Pom poms? From giddy to s*****?

 

And you say you don't gloat.

 

You got what you wanted. Congrats.

[Old Red]

Team is struggling. Old Red is back to rub that in..

 

I hadn’t gone anywhere, but I think I’m pretty mild compare to the game threads, or the airwaves, or the papers, or the street corners. After Monday’s embarrassing cluster f- - -, and the sweep that followed it is well deserved from JH, and his minions right down to Cora.

[Old Red]

And you say you don't gloat.

 

You got what you wanted. Congrats.

 

Facts are gloating? No Mookie who talk? No I don’t hear any we want DD back talk. No updated wildcard standings. It should be done all the time not just when things look promising. What a front runner, and next will be a bailout. But there is always 2024, 2025, 2026, or beyond. Gloating was being ahead of the Yankees. What will you say if that changes?

Edited August 31, 2023 by Old Red

[Old Red]

For some odd reason, he has a grind about posting wild card updates more often after wins than losses, or stopping after it hardly matters.

 

That’s right go to the standard responses make Old Red the problem instead of Bloom. Only on here. Hilarious!