A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[dgalehouse]

Shall we check in with Vegas on that? Looks like a bet on the Sox to make the playoffs is paying off at 5.5 up to 6.3 to 1.

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/playoff-prop/

 

I'm trying to get a bet down.

[moonslav59]

I'm trying to get a bet down.

 

Red might take your bet.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm trying to get a bet down.

 

Odds should be even better after last night.

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt.

 

Even Richards gave us more, and did some good from the pen, after his demotion.

 

Perez had a few nice stretches and was much cheaper.

 

Had Bloom got us the numbers Wacha and Hill gave us, last year, we'd be in a playoff seat, right now.

 

Had he signed Eflin, maybe his production before the injury might have been enough to set us up for a playoff slot and did way more than Kluber did.

 

Like I said before, when you sign $10M/1 pitchers, you are rolling the dice and betting on snake eyes. Bloom rolled the dice and lost.

 

 

Eflin isn't injured. Are you mixing him with Eovaldi?

[notin]

Eflin isn't injured. Are you mixing him with Eovaldi?

 

Eflin was injured earlier this year. Of course the story o heard was Eflin wanted Tampa and wasn’t going to sign with Boston (or anyone else?) unless they passed on him. So he was never much of an option…

[Bellhorn04]

Eflin was injured earlier this year. Of course the story o heard was Eflin wanted Tampa and wasn’t going to sign with Boston (or anyone else?) unless they passed on him. So he was never much of an option…

 

Looks like he missed a couple weeks in April and that's it.

 

Yes, the story was that the Rays matched the Red Sox offer and Eflin took it because he preferred to play in Tampa.

 

We'll never know if Bloom had a chance to bump his offer.

 

The bottom line is, all we got was Kluber.

[moonslav59]

Eflin isn't injured. Are you mixing him with Eovaldi?

 

Not Nate, but I coulda sworn I saw he hit the IL.

 

What a difference he'd have made over Kluber (or Nate.)

 

It used to encourage me to know, at least Bloom was on to the right ideas, but coming up short, so often actually makes me feel worse, now.

[mvp 78]

Not Nate, but I coulda sworn I saw he hit the IL.

 

What a difference he'd have made over Kluber (or Nate.)

 

It used to encourage me to know, at least Bloom was on to the right ideas, but coming up short, so often actually makes me feel worse, now.

 

Coming up short means he needs to just add some money to get the deal done.

[moonslav59]

Coming up short means he needs to just add some money to get the deal done.

 

Yes. (or add another year.)

 

He had the money, this winter. He could have added $5-7M more and still stayed under the tax line.

 

In hindsight, he could have not traded for Mondesi or gave a contract to Brasier and added even more.

[mvp 78]

Yes. (or add another year.)

 

He had the money, this winter. He could have added $5-7M more and still stayed under the tax line.

 

In hindsight, he could have not traded for Mondesi or gave a contract to Brasier and added even more.

 

Re: Brasier

 

We always project them to nontender a few players and it just almost rarely ever happens...

[moonslav59]

Re: Brasier

 

We always project them to nontender a few players and it just almost rarely ever happens...

 

It might just take that little bit more of cash to improve our signings, but yes... every year.

 

I'm not sure I see many Brasiers, this coming winter, so maybe 2024 will be the "We have arrived" season.

 

5 years of fan frustration should take its toll.

[mvp 78]

It might just take that little bit more of cash to improve our signings, but yes... every year.

 

I'm not sure I see many Brasiers, this coming winter, so maybe 2024 will be the "We have arrived" season.

 

5 years of fan frustration should take its toll.

 

2021 was a great year, but 2020 and the past two have taken their toll for sure.

[moonslav59]

2021 was a great year, but 2020 and the past two have taken their toll for sure.

 

I have to think they know "the con game" can only last, so long. I felt last winter could be "the year" we "go for it," but I can understand why they want to wait for Rafaela, Mayer and maybe a couple others to make the 26 before going all in.

 

Had we held fire sales in 2020 and 2023, we might be "there," already.

 

I'm not so sure they see 2024 as the time to splurge, either, so maybe the try to run the con one more season.

[Nick]

The biggest disappoints this year were Cora insisting on playing Kike at short after knowing he sucked at short and couldn't hit and pitching Kluber "just one more start" after Kluber showed he had nothing left in his tank.

 

He stayed with the two too long. Probably cost us 5 games or more.

 

Worst use of $20M.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Nick

[jgar658]

The biggest disappoints this year were Cora insisting on playing Kike at short after knowing he sucked at short and couldn't hit and pitching Kluber "just one more start" after Kluber showed he had nothing left in his tank.

 

He stayed with the two too long. Probably cost us 5 games or more.

 

Worst use of $20M.

 

Devers is not killing it at 3rd base. Could Devers do better at 2nd base? He seems to have most of his errors with hard hit balls at him.

 

Sox need to win the next 6 games.

[moonslav59]

The biggest disappoints this year were Cora insisting on playing Kike at short after knowing he sucked at short and couldn't hit and pitching Kluber "just one more start" after Kluber showed he had nothing left in his tank.

 

He stayed with the two too long. Probably cost us 5 games or more.

 

Worst use of $20M.

 

I agree. Those were Cora's biggest mistakes, and neither is hindsight.

 

When we got Reyes, we should have played him FT at SS.

 

I even liked DHam more than Kike.

 

The Kluber call was more difficult, because Sale and Paxton were on the IL, and Houck and Whitlock were either sucking or missing starts, too.

 

Bello wasn't even ready, opening day.

 

Pivetta deserved his demotion, too.

 

It was a choice of lesser evils for the first month or two.

 

Still, anyone but Kluber seemed to be known after 4-6 starts, but he was given 9.

 

.

[moonslav59]

Our two best...

 

Paxton:

ERA/FIP

2.73/3.63 First 10 starts

5.50/5.13 Last 7 starts

 

It's not all his fault. he kept us in the race for a while, but this is pretty bad.

 

Our "ace" Bello:

 

3.04/3.76 First 14 starts

5.03/5.56 Last 7 starts

 

These two need to turn it around, NOW, of we have no hope.

 

[mvp 78]

Devers is not killing it at 3rd base. Could Devers do better at 2nd base? He seems to have most of his errors with hard hit balls at him.

 

Sox need to win the next 6 games.

 

I don't think his range would be very good and he'd have trouble with the footwork turning a double play IMO.

[Nick]

Wilyer Abreu is joining the Sox with Duran going to IL.

 

Not that I want Duran on IL but getting to see another young player will be fun.

 

I really want him to show us his offensive prowess. I'm hoping he has a higher ceiling than Verdugo.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Wilyer Abreu is joining the Sox with Duran going to IL.

 

Not that I want Duran on IL but getting to see another young player has been fun.

 

I really want him to show us his offensive prowess. I'm hoping he has a higher ceiling than Verdugo.

 

Interesting. He deserves a shot and is a good defender.

[moonslav59]

Interesting. He deserves a shot and is a good defender.

 

I'm hopeful he gives us more hope.

[jgar658]

I'm hopeful he gives us more hope.

 

Why did Houston traded two prospects for a rental they did not need? Win fir the Sox?

[moonslav59]

Why did Houston traded two prospects for a rental they did not need? Win fir the Sox?

 

Maldanado was being overused and needed rest.

 

I think Abreu and EValdez were not ranked top 8 in their system, when traded, but I'm not sure. I think Abreu was 8th and Valdez 11th.

 

I liked the trade, then and even more now.

 

When combined with us getting McGuire for a salary dump pitcher, the two moves combined, gave us better catching going forward and 2 prospects with legit chances.

 

Win-Loss.

[jgar658]

I don't think his range would be very good and he'd have trouble with the footwork turning a double play IMO.

 

If his defense remains the same he should transition to DH. I do not think Devers would be stellar in first base.

[Nick]

If his defense remains the same he should transition to DH. I do not think Devers would be stellar in first base.

 

With all due respect to all of you, Henry did not spend $300M NOT to have Devers at 3B for the Sox. Stop it!!!!!!!

[moonslav59]

With all due respect to all of you, Henry did not spend $300M NOT to have Devers at 3B for the Sox. Stop it!!!!!!!

 

I don't get this.

 

1Bmen are often paid big bucks- even more than 1Bmen.

 

History: (probably not a complete list)

1B

248/8 Miggy (2016>)

240/10 Pujols (2012>)

225/10 Votto (2014>)

214/9 Fielder (2012>)

162/6 Freeman (2022>)

152/8 Miggy (2008>)

130/5 Goldschmidt (2020>)

 

3B

260/8 Arenado (2019>)

245/7 Rendon (2020>)

212/10 Riley (2023>)

141/7 J Ramirez (ext 2022>)

 

[Old Red]

I don't get this.

 

1Bmen are often paid big bucks- even more than 1Bmen.

 

History: (probably not a complete list)

1B

248/8 Miggy (2016>)

240/10 Pujols (2012>)

225/10 Votto (2014>)

214/9 Fielder (2012>)

162/6 Freeman (2022>)

152/8 Miggy (2008>)

130/5 Goldschmidt (2020>)

 

3B

260/8 Arenado (2019>)

245/7 Rendon (2020>)

212/10 Riley (2023>)

141/7 J Ramirez (ext 2022>)

 

All the hype, and anticipation of Casas being at 1B in a Red Sox uniform is here. Everyone wanted Raffy resigned, and he was. Most were giddy over the Yoshida signing. What’s not to like?

[moonslav59]

All the hype, and anticipation of Casas being at 1B in a Red Sox uniform is here. Everyone wanted Raffy resigned, and he was. Most were giddy over the Yoshida signing. What’s not to like?

 

Most were "giddy" over Yoshida?

 

LOL.

 

Casas is still a huge plus- just not on D at 1B, right now.

 

Raffy has yet to play 1 year of his extension.

 

Judging too soon, right?

[Old Red]

Most were "giddy" over Yoshida?

 

LOL.

 

Casas is still a huge plus- just not on D at 1B, right now.

 

Raffy has yet to play 1 year of his extension.

 

Judging too soon, right?

Yes all the complainers are complaining too soon. None of the three are all around players, and there is a good chance that none of them will ever be. Mookie is, and was.

[moonslav59]

Yes all the complainers are complaining too soon. None of the three are all around players, and there is a good chance that none of them will ever be. Mookie is, and was.

 

What does that have to do with Bloom?

 

You keep blaming the wrong person, and no that does not mean I think the Bloom awesome thing is great.