A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

MLB OPS Leaders

1.071 Ohtani

.989 Betts

12. Devers .877[

16. JD .856

22. Turner .844

27. Casas .836

39. Masataka .817

79. Verdugo .765

 

(Duran DNQ)

 

 

/B]

 

 

You need another “[“ in front of your last “/B]”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While many will agree these upcoming seven games with Houston could make or break the season, maybe it's true for more than what should be a tough stretch against the defending world champs...

 

... maybe it's because the stagnant Astros are now only three games in the loss column ahead of the Red Sox -- so catching Houston for a wild card may actually be more feasible than worrying about surging Seattle or even-steven Toronto.

 

The Sox would have to win 5 of 7 to tie the Stros... hey, it could happen. In the four games in Texas, probable pitchers are named Javier, Verlander, Urquidy and France.

[redsoxrules]

It's not looking good for them to make the playoffs but anything can happen.

 

I say it's not looking good as the Jays and Seatlle have quite favorable schedules down the stretch. The Sox would probably have to win at a 700 clip minimum the rest of the way to pass either of those clubs.

 

This series VS Houston will probably make or break the Sox chances here

[moonslav59]

I’m not overly confident.

 

I’m positive they will be out (or at best, make a token effort to get their names in the press) on Ohtani, Urias and Nola.

 

The best I could see them being seriously linked to is Snell, but I’m not very confident there either.

 

I’m expecting something more like a one year rebound deal like Severino or Marquez or (worse yet) Brad Keller.

 

They’re more likely to do the actual spending in the bullpen…

 

Even if we decide not to go over the tax line, don't you think we will come close to it?

 

Let's assume the spend to about $5-7M under the line. That's still a lot of money to spend, and the need areas are greatly reduced, no matter how pessimistic one might look at it.

 

SP

SP

CF

Depth MI

 

(I don't think we need pen help, unless the plan is to use all our long men as SP'ers, again.)

 

[moonslav59]

While many will agree these upcoming seven games with Houston could make or break the season, maybe it's true for more than what should be a tough stretch against the defending world champs...

 

... maybe it's because the stagnant Astros are now only three games in the loss column ahead of the Red Sox -- so catching Houston for a wild card may actually be more feasible than worrying about surging Seattle or even-steven Toronto.

 

The Sox would have to win 5 of 7 to tie the Stros... hey, it could happen. In the four games in Texas, probable pitchers are named Javier, Verlander, Urquidy and France.

 

We could go 4-3 and have a shot, but yes 5-2 puts it in our own hands, for the most part.

[moonslav59]

We may need to go 5-2 v HOU and 3-0 v TOR, but 4-3 and 2-1 would inch us closer, and greatly improve our odds.

 

We have our work cut out, but facing our closest competitors offers us the best chance to gain, quickly.

[moonslav59]

Here is an interesting comp on August 20th:

 

Tax Budget 2023: (source: cots)

 

$256M DD's Phillies

67-57

 

$217M Bloom's Sox

66-58

 

Could be an interesting storyline for winter banter.

[moonslav59]

We are 26-16 since June 30th and have won 7 of 10.

 

Just keep this going against tougher teams, and we will be okay..

 

We are 8 games over .500.

 

We were 7 games over on May 6th- the end of an 8 game win streak.

 

We were 6 games over after a 4 game win streak ending on May 20th.

 

We were 6 games over, again on July 14th, after a 6 game win streak.

 

We got up to 9 games over on July 28th, after winning 5 straight, but then lost 7 or 8 surrounding the trade deadline.

 

The worst we've been has been...

 

3 games under on 4/13

 

2 games under on 6/13 & 6/29

 

Longest winning streaks: 8, 6, 6, 5 & 4

 

Longest losing streaks: 5, 4, 4, 4, 4

 

Edited August 21, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Here is an interesting comp on August 20th:

 

Tax Budget 2023: (source: cots)

 

$256M DD's Phillies

67-57

 

$217M Bloom's Sox

66-58

 

Could be an interesting storyline for winter banter.

 

Might as well start the banter now, with this obviously slanted take:

 

If the season ended today, the Philles would be in the playoffs for the second year in a row and the Red Sox would be out of the playoffs for the second year in a row.

 

So it's a clear win for DD.

 

The difference in payrolls is good only for JH's wallet. Although that is mitigated by the lack of playoff games and the pissed-off fans.

 

There is only one segment of Sox fans who are happy, the future-huggers who believe Bloom when he says it's gonna be awesome.

[moonslav59]

Might as well start the banter now, with this obviously slanted take:

 

If the season ended today, the Philles would be in the playoffs for the second year in a row and the Red Sox would be out of the playoffs for the second year in a row.

 

So it's a clear win for DD.

 

The difference in payrolls is good only for JH's wallet. Although that is mitigated by the lack of playoff games and the pissed-off fans.

 

There is only one segment of Sox fans who are happy, the future-huggers who believe Bloom when he says it's gonna be awesome.

 

DD "wins" by being in a weaker division and weaker #5 and #6 WC teams.

[notin]

DD "wins" by being in a weaker division and weaker #5 and #6 WC teams.

 

They’re record is a FULL GAME better…

[notin]

DD "wins" by being in a weaker division and weaker #5 and #6 WC teams.

 

Ok this is weird. Records since Dombrowski took over the Phillies

 

Philadelphia: 236-212

Boston: 236-212

[Bellhorn04]

DD "wins" by being in a weaker division and weaker #5 and #6 WC teams.

 

Tough luck for the Sox. Nobody ever said luck wasn't a factor.

[Dipre]

All I want to say is that I find comfort in the Yanks' failures even if the Sox don't make the playoffs. f*** 'em.

[moonslav59]

Tough luck for the Sox. Nobody ever said luck wasn't a factor.

 

So, "luck" makes DD the winner in 2023?

[moonslav59]

Ok this is weird. Records since Dombrowski took over the Phillies

 

Philadelphia: 236-212

Boston: 236-212

 

I don't pay attention to Phillies baseball, but has DD traded away any top prospects since taking over?

 

I know he's spent way more than Bloom.

[moonslav59]

All I want to say is that I find comfort in the Yanks' failures even if the Sox don't make the playoffs. f*** 'em.

 

No doubt.

'

In the years when the Sox really sucked, hoping the Yanks lost was almost as important as us winning.

[mvp 78]

You need another “[“ in front of your last “/B]”

 

It was in front of it, just WELL in front of it.

[mvp 78]

It's not looking good for them to make the playoffs but anything can happen.

 

I say it's not looking good as the Jays and Seatlle have quite favorable schedules down the stretch. The Sox would probably have to win at a 700 clip minimum the rest of the way to pass either of those clubs.

 

This series VS Houston will probably make or break the Sox chances here

 

It's tough when you have to play catch up. It's even tougher when you fall behind multiple teams. They need two of the following to drop out of it: SEA, TOR, HOU. After a stretch of playing the Nats, KC and sweeping the Yanks, they are still 3 games back.

[mvp 78]

Might as well start the banter now, with this obviously slanted take:

 

If the season ended today, the Philles would be in the playoffs for the second year in a row and the Red Sox would be out of the playoffs for the second year in a row.

 

So it's a clear win for DD.

 

The difference in payrolls is good only for JH's wallet. Although that is mitigated by the lack of playoff games and the pissed-off fans.

 

There is only one segment of Sox fans who are happy, the future-huggers who believe Bloom when he says it's gonna be awesome.

 

Except that owners get more revenue if when the team makes a playoff run. Is it the 40M to minimize the gap between the Phillies and the Sox? IDK.

[notin]

I don't pay attention to Phillies baseball, but has DD traded away any top prospects since taking over?

 

I know he's spent way more than Bloom.

 

Mickey Moniak to the Angels for Noah Syndergaard.

[moonslav59]

Mickey Moniak to the Angels for Noah Syndergaard.

 

Just one? What's up with that?

[mvp 78]

Mickey Moniak to the Angels for Noah Syndergaard.

 

Moniak wasn't a top 20 prospect for them in 2022 per FanGraphs. He was highly ranked back in 2017 or whatever, but his ranking had dropped before that trade.

[a700hitter]

Mickey Moniak to the Angels for Noah Syndergaard.

i don’t think he is still a top prospect. He was drafted in 2016.

[Dipre]

Except that owners get more revenue if when the team makes a playoff run. Is it the 40M to minimize the gap between the Phillies and the Sox? IDK.

 

I keep saying that, but people don't seem to get it.

[oldtimer]

The time is past due for MLB to adopt technology assisted strike zone management. Too many bad calls in critical game situations when the technology exists to avoid the problems.

[mvp 78]

I keep saying that, but people don't seem to get it.

 

It was echoing in my brain because you keep saying that.

[mvp 78]

The time is past due for MLB to adopt technology assisted strike zone management. Too many bad calls in critical game situations when the technology exists to avoid the problems.

 

I think they won't go full robo ump, but a challenge system where the manager gets a few calls to challenge each game.

[moonslav59]

Other Philly trades: (I have not heard of many of these guys.)

Hao-Yu Lee for Lorenzen

Billy Sullivan for Cristian Pache

Vierling, Maton & Sands for Kody Clemens and Gregory Soto

Moniak & J Sanchez for Syndergaard

Ben Brown for David Robertson

Logan O'Hoppe for Brandon Marsh (I know O'Hoppe was a highly regarded catching prospect.)

JoJo Romero for Edmundo Sosa

Picardo for Norwood

Haseley for M Moore

Toffey for L Williams

Joel Valdez for N Nelson & D Sands

Spencer Howard, Gessner & K Gowdy for Crouse, Ian Kennedy and K Gibson

 

This what I found since the 2021 deadline.

 

[moonslav59]

I think they won't go full robo ump, but a challenge system where the manager gets a few calls to challenge each game.

 

It's a small step in the right direction, but I'm for a full robo ump for balls and strikes. Even if it ends uo being flawed, my guess is it will at least be consistent and allow batters and pitchers to rely on a set standard.