A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[vegasbob]

https://www.yachtcharterfleet.com/luxury-charter-yacht-48111/elysian-photos.htm

 

Don't worry, he saves money on taxes because of how he flags the big dumb boat, which helped with the refit he did of it in 2020. He's probably put about 130-150M into it (purchase, refit, annual costs).

 

Annual operating costs on the yacht our company has is $22 million with a crew of 33 . It would reach from home plate to the Monster, 311' . Also built by Lurssen . Charters out for $1.2M/week. JH has the cheap economy version sort of like one of his teams.

[mvp 78]

Annual operating costs on the yacht our company has is $22 million with a crew of 33 . It would reach from home plate to the Monster, 311' . Also built by Lurssen . Charters out for $1.2M/week. JH has the cheap economy version sort of like one of his teams.

 

Yeah, the smallest megayacht is 50M and JH's is 66. It's still a big f***ing boat, but I've seen bigger. I used to work at a shipyard that did refits of megayachts.

[moonslav59]

The Astros play more "easier" series than we do, but they still have some tough series to go...

 

7 v BOS

3 @ TEX

3 v BAL

They end the season with

3@SEA

3@ARI

[moonslav59]

He's been good. I think both Reyes and Bernardino were good finds for 2023, but I don't think they are guys you can count on for multiple years.

 

Kinda like Schreiber and Refsnyder?

[moonslav59]

They need to pass 2 out of 3 of them somehow. It's a tall task that gets much taller if they don't really take it to the Astros this month.

 

All the TOR-BOS series ave been sweeps (2 by BOS & 1 by TOR.)

 

If we sweep them, the next time, we may get in by going 4-3 or even 3-4 v HOU, but yes, beating HOU, badly, would bring us right into the mix.

[mvp 78]

Kinda like Schreiber and Refsnyder?

 

Seems like it. I think Schreiber could still be a decent middle reliever going forward, but not a back end guy.

 

Refsnyder is just playing to career norms now.

[moonslav59]

Seems like it. I think Schreiber could still be a decent middle reliever going forward, but not a back end guy.

 

Refsnyder is just playing to career norms now.

 

It's like the second Ref signed that extension, he fell off a cliff.

 

I do still like Schreiber, despite his recent meltdown.

[notin]

Seems like it. I think Schreiber could still be a decent middle reliever going forward, but not a back end guy.

 

Refsnyder is just playing to career norms now.

 

Refsnyder is a weak side platoon option with no glove. Schreiber is a decent middle reliever. Reyes is a fungible utility infielder. Bernardino could disappear from MLB forever at any time going forward…

L

[mvp 78]

It's like the second Ref signed that extension, he fell off a cliff.

 

I do still like Schreiber, despite his recent meltdown.

 

Since June 3 when he signed:

598 OPS

71 wRC+

 

Prior:

791 OPS

124 wRC+

 

Since 6/15:

523 OPS

47 wRC+

[mvp 78]

He was pretty good the 2 weeks after signing the deal (988 OPS, 184 wRC+), but nosedived the middle of June.

[moonslav59]

He was pretty good the 2 weeks after signing the deal (988 OPS, 184 wRC+), but nosedived the middle of June.

 

Maybe it took a couple weeks to set in.

[Duran Is The Man]

https://www.yachtcharterfleet.com/luxury-charter-yacht-48111/elysian-photos.htm

 

Don't worry, he saves money on taxes because of how he flags the big dumb boat, which helped with the refit he did of it in 2020. He's probably put about 130-150M into it (purchase, refit, annual costs).

 

thanks MVP, that makes me feel better.

[moonslav59]

thanks MVP, that makes me feel better.

 

It really makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside, knowing my NESN subscription money is funding his yacht.

 

[dgalehouse]

thanks MVP, that makes me feel better.

 

It is " our " yacht . Of course , we don't get to use it. And the Red Sox are " our " team. Of course, we have to pay to get in Fenway to watch them. But it's good to feel that " we " are in on the action.

[moonslav59]

I could be wrong, but I swear our fangraphs odds on making the playoffs was 17% before the Yankee series and is now 16% after the sweep.

 

I realize we are 3 games closer to the end of the season, and still 3 games behind, so it's not surprising, but still...

[moonslav59]

It is " our " yacht . Of course , we don't get to use it. And the Red Sox are " our " team. Of course, we have to pay to get in Fenway to watch them. But it's good to feel that " we " are in on the action.

 

All Aboard!!!

[Bellhorn04]

I could be wrong, but I swear our fangraphs odds on making the playoffs was 17% before the Yankee series and is now 16% after the sweep.

 

I realize we are 3 games closer to the end of the season, and still 3 games behind, so it's not surprising, but still...

 

Probably because the Mariners also swept.

[moonslav59]

Probably because the Mariners also swept.

 

Yes, and we barely gained on TOR. We may have improved the odds of passing HOU, but they are still ahead of SEA and TOR with the odds, so it did not make a big enough dent by essentially losing odds vs TOR and SEA.:

 

80% HOU

65% TOR

59% SEA

16% BOS

 

[dgalehouse]

Fangraph's odds are meaningless. You will not find a bookie to give you those kinds of odds.

[mvp 78]

Fangraph's odds are meaningless. You will not find a bookie to give you those kinds of odds.

 

Betting odds aren’t one to one for who is most likely to win. It’s about where the money is going and hedging against those bets.

[mvp 78]

thanks MVP, that makes me feel better.

 

[moonslav59]

Fangraph's odds are meaningless. You will not find a bookie to give you those kinds of odds.

 

Bookies set odds based on what fans bet on, not on what they actually think will happen.

 

They seek 50% bets on one team and 50% on the other.

[Larry Cook]

Yes, and we barely gained on TOR. We may have improved the odds of passing HOU, but they are still ahead of SEA and TOR with the odds, so it did not make a big enough dent by essentially losing odds vs TOR and SEA.:

 

80% HOU

65% TOR

59% SEA

16% BOS

 

 

It is amazing we are even this close to the playoffs after everything our starting pitching staff has been through this year!

[Bellhorn04]

Fangraph's odds are meaningless. You will not find a bookie to give you those kinds of odds.

 

Shall we check in with Vegas on that? Looks like a bet on the Sox to make the playoffs is paying off at 5.5 up to 6.3 to 1.

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/playoff-prop/

[moonslav59]

It is amazing we are even this close to the playoffs after everything our starting pitching staff has been through this year!

 

As bad as our rotation has been, including demotions (Pivetta & Kluber) and promotions from the pen (Pivetta, Crawford, Houck and a bunch of Openers,) I remember thinking we'd be super lucky to get 30 starts from Sale and Paxton, combined. They are at 29, now, and both have pitched better than almost anyone expected.

 

We also had some serious concerns about Bello: his durability and development timeline. His 3.70 ERA in 21 starts has to be viewed as better than expected.

 

Two of the biggest disappointments, this year, did have questions going into the year, but mostly about health and durability, not skill level:

Whitlock: 5.72 ERA (10 GS)

Houck: 5.05 ERA (13 GS)

 

The Kluber, Whitlock and Houck letdowns have been nearly offset by the the Sale/Paxton combo, Bello and the big surprises of all: Crawford (16 GS) and the return of Pivetta (11 GS) to the rotation or opener follower (7 games with more than 3 IP as a RP'er.)

 

I like our rotation, now.

 

I love our pen, now.

 

Just stay healthy, let a few guys work out some kinks, and maybe we peak at just the right time.

 

[moonslav59]

Shall we check in with Vegas on that? Looks like a bet on the Sox to make the playoffs is paying off at 5.5 up to 6.3 to 1.

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/playoff-prop/

 

Pretty close to 15-16%

[Duran Is The Man]

I could be wrong, but I swear our fangraphs odds on making the playoffs was 17% before the Yankee series and is now 16% after the sweep.

 

I realize we are 3 games closer to the end of the season, and still 3 games behind, so it's not surprising, but still...

 

ESPN had them at 9% before the yankees sweep and 16.5% now.

[Duran Is The Man]

As bad as our rotation has been, including demotions (Pivetta & Kluber) and promotions from the pen (Pivetta, Crawford, Houck and a bunch of Openers,) I remember thinking we'd be super lucky to get 30 starts from Sale and Paxton, combined. They are at 29, now, and both have pitched better than almost anyone expected.

 

We also had some serious concerns about Bello: his durability and development timeline. His 3.70 ERA in 21 starts has to be viewed as better than expected.

 

Two of the biggest disappointments, this year, did have questions going into the year, but mostly about health and durability, not skill level:

Whitlock: 5.72 ERA (10 GS)

Houck: 5.05 ERA (13 GS)

 

The Kluber, Whitlock and Houck letdowns have been nearly offset by the the Sale/Paxton combo, Bello and the big surprises of all: Crawford (16 GS) and the return of Pivetta (11 GS) to the rotation or opener follower (7 games with more than 3 IP as a RP'er.)

 

I like our rotation, now.

 

I love our pen, now.

 

Just stay healthy, let a few guys work out some kinks, and maybe we peak at just the right time.

 

 

to me....Kluber has been, by far, the biggest disappointment this year. i knew he wasn't going to be 2017 Kluber but gawd dawg. never thought he'd be a steaming pile of s***.

[moonslav59]

to me....Kluber has been, by far, the biggest disappointment this year. i knew he wasn't going to be 2017 Kluber but gawd dawg. never thought he'd be a steaming pile of s***.

 

No doubt.

 

Even Richards gave us more, and did some good from the pen, after his demotion.

 

Perez had a few nice stretches and was much cheaper.

 

Had Bloom got us the numbers Wacha and Hill gave us, last year, we'd be in a playoff seat, right now.

 

Had he signed Eflin, maybe his production before the injury might have been enough to set us up for a playoff slot and did way more than Kluber did.

 

Like I said before, when you sign $10M/1 pitchers, you are rolling the dice and betting on snake eyes. Bloom rolled the dice and lost.

 

[moonslav59]

Let's break the remaining 12 series into groups of 4:

 

Next 3:

BOS: 4@HOU, 3vLAD, 3vHOU -Our big test

TOR: 3@BAL, 3vCLE, 3vWSH -Good chance to gain, here

SEA: 3@CWS, 3vKCR, 3vOAK -About as easy as can be

HOU: 4vBOS, 3@DET, 3@BOS -DET is no push-over.

 

2nd 3:

BOS: 3@KCR, 3@TBR, 3vBAL - another test

TOR: 3@COL, 3@OAK, 3vKCR -a second easy group

SEA: 3@NYM, 3@CIN, 4@TBR -not easy

HOU: 3vNYY, 3@TEX, 3vSDP -not all that hard

 

3rd 3:

BOS: 3vNYY, 3@TOR, 3@TEX -another tough group

TOR: 4vTEX, 3vBOS, 3@NYY -finally, a test

SEA: 3vLAA, 3vLAD, 3@OAK -pretty easy

HOU: 3vOAK, 3@KCR, 3vBAL -easy

 

Last 3:

BOS: 3vCWS, 2vTBR, 4@BAL -gotta sweep CWS

TOR: 3@TBR, 3vNYY, 3vTBR- We may need help, here.

SEA: 3@TEX, 3vHOU, 4vTEX Their hardest group.

HOU: 3vKCR, 3@SEA, 3@ARI -May need help