A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

I know you're supportive of Alex Cora. I'm just being a pissant because I truly believe this discussion about days off is silly. I'm happy to give the Braves credit for what they do, but I'm convinced the numbers are completely on my side in defending Cora.

 

To be absolutely clear, the evidence of the 2018 season argues very strongly that more days off--mostly because of injuries, not planned days off--made the Sox better, not worse. Mookie was the AL MVP and missed 26 freaking games.

 

Just to be clear.

 

This was a New York writer who interjected maybe the Mets and the Yankees copy Braves' blue print that includes playing the best players as much as they can.

 

Nothing more nothing less.

 

Cora is a good manager. I only disagreed with him on one issue this year.

[mvp 78]

Just to be clear.

 

This was a New York writer who interjected maybe the Mets and the Yankees copy Braves' blue print that includes playing the best players as much as they can.

 

Nothing more nothing less.

 

Cora is a good manager. I only disagreed with him on one issue this year.

 

The issue of Cora over-resting players has been a topic of conversation going back to the DD days on here.

[dgalehouse]

Other than pitchers and catchers, it is really not too exhausting for an athlete to play a baseball game. I think the scheduled days off are more an organizational policy than they are a manager's decision. No doubt management has some data that shows that the days off are beneficial . And the manager pretty much has to adhere to the organizational policy. It is pretty obvious that MLB managers do not have the authority that they once did.

[Hugh2]

Other than pitchers and catchers, it is really not too exhausting for an athlete to play a baseball game. I think the scheduled days off are more an organizational policy than they are a manager's decision. No doubt management has some data that shows that the days off are beneficial . And the manager pretty much has to adhere to the organizational policy. It is pretty obvious that MLB managers do not have the authority that they once did.

 

I'm not sure how much exhausting has to do with it. Maybe more so on any particular given day, but not on the day to day basis.

 

There are different types of exercise and modes of physical activity. Yes, playing baseball isn't particularly demanding from an aerobic point of view, which is what you are getting at. But the act of swinging at a pitch, or going from standing still to darting to your rleft and diving with full force is very anaerobic, and that max level of effort can still be very taxing on the body. Particularly joints and ligaments. Rest can be very beneficial to people putting their bodies through that even if they're not sweating profusely from exercise.

[moonslav59]

Who gives a flying hoot about those numbers? .

 

You brought up the resting worked point.

[moonslav59]

I know you're supportive of Alex Cora. I'm just being a pissant because I truly believe this discussion about days off is silly. I'm happy to give the Braves credit for what they do, but I'm convinced the numbers are completely on my side in defending Cora.

 

To be absolutely clear, the evidence of the 2018 season argues very strongly that more days off--mostly because of injuries, not planned days off--made the Sox better, not worse. Mookie was the AL MVP and missed 26 freaking games.

 

I think the idea of giving so many days off is a very debatable issue. It seems there is a wide variance in what some teams do vs others.

 

The main argument for resting players, so much, seems to be to help them be better situated for the end of season grind. I would think looking at how well our players hold up during the dog days of summer and later is fair game to examine.

 

I think that 2018 team was an awesome team. I'm not sure anyone can claim that days off, mostly for injury, helped them be that good or better.

 

Why are the "numbers completely on "your side? One point against yours might be, if the players were so well-rested, why did they hurt, so much? A point you brought up, not me.

 

I have a few minor issues with Cora. I'm not sure why you use 2018 as proof, but do not mention 2021 and 2022. We are 6-9 in our last 15 games in 2023. Does all the rest, this year, "completely convince you" your side is right?

 

2022: we completely collapsed after July 4th, despite all the rest.

 

2021:

50-31 APR-JUN

39-39 JUL-SEP

 

If you want to use W-L records to prove resting works, then how do you explain 2021 and 2022 and the last 15 games of 2023?

 

My position is, it is impossible to prove resting adds enough of a benefit to outweigh the losses that may occur due to resting key players, often.

 

I happen to disagree with the strategy. I still love Cora and and am extremely happy he is our manager.

[redsoxrules]

Resting players is a joke in this sport unless you have a lingering injury.

You swing a bat 4-5-times a game and when you're not your standing on the field catching lazy fly balls and routine grounders. Yeah yeah you get the occasional plays where you have to run but big deal.

 

It makes me laugh really especially with the money they make.

[redsoxrules]

I played this sport for many years. You spend more energy training for it than actually playing the game

[moonslav59]

Resting players is a joke in this sport unless you have a lingering injury.

You swing a bat 4-5-times a game and when you're not your standing on the field catching lazy fly balls and routine grounders. Yeah yeah you get the occasional plays where you have to run but big deal.

 

It makes me laugh really especially with the money they make.

 

It's all part of the pussification of sports.

[Hugh2]

Resting players is a joke in this sport unless you have a lingering injury.

You swing a bat 4-5-times a game and when you're not your standing on the field catching lazy fly balls and routine grounders. Yeah yeah you get the occasional plays where you have to run but big deal.

 

It makes me laugh really especially with the money they make.

 

Yeah, it’s probably more than that, and they play the field as well.

 

Strain on the human body isn’t all about abundance. You could run back and forth and be fine for one hour. Conversely you could exert yourself at full force for 30 seconds and sustain an acute injury. Load isn’t everything.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the idea of giving so many days off is a very debatable issue. It seems there is a wide variance in what some teams do vs others.

 

The main argument for resting players, so much, seems to be to help them be better situated for the end of season grind. I would think looking at how well our players hold up during the dog days of summer and later is fair game to examine.

 

I think that 2018 team was an awesome team. I'm not sure anyone can claim that days off, mostly for injury, helped them be that good or better.

 

Why are the "numbers completely on "your side? One point against yours might be, if the players were so well-rested, why did they hurt, so much? A point you brought up, not me.

 

I have a few minor issues with Cora. I'm not sure why you use 2018 as proof, but do not mention 2021 and 2022. We are 6-9 in our last 15 games in 2023. Does all the rest, this year, "completely convince you" your side is right?

 

2022: we completely collapsed after July 4th, despite all the rest.

 

2021:

50-31 APR-JUN

39-39 JUL-SEP

 

If you want to use W-L records to prove resting works, then how do you explain 2021 and 2022 and the last 15 games of 2023?

 

My position is, it is impossible to prove resting adds enough of a benefit to outweigh the losses that may occur due to resting key players, often.

 

I happen to disagree with the strategy. I still love Cora and and am extremely happy he is our manager.

 

In Red Sox lore, the anti-Cora was Don Zimmer. While it's hard to blame a manager when players don't perform, Zim infamously burned out the 1978 Sox regulars by never letting up on the gas. He kept playing Butch Hobson at third base when he could barely lift his arm with an elbow full of bone chips, which led to 43 errors -- most in the majors at any position.

 

But Zim admired Hobson because he was such a "tough sumbitch" (paraphrasing Gammons). He had no choice to bench Dwight Evans, though, after Dewey got beaned and was seeing triple.

 

Overall, the '78ers employed only 17 total Red Sox batters -- the team's least amount in a season in the entire divisional era (over half a century)... and missed the postseason by one game. This year's Sox have already used 27...

[cp176]

rest is good for sure but there is a time to rest and a time to maybe think about digging a little deeper. My complaint with Cora and his rest days would be that often it appears that a bat has just come to life and low and behold it is a scheduled rest day. I would like to see him let it go a little more. I'm also not a big fan of always doing the lefty righty thing with potential young hitting prospects. If they don't get the opportunity to hit both lefties and righties, you'll never know if they can.

[redsoxrules]

I never understood the whole lefty VS lefty matchups on how they always try to pinch hit or start a heavy right handed lineup.

They don't do the same for a right handed pitcher.

[notin]

Resting players is a joke in this sport unless you have a lingering injury.

You swing a bat 4-5-times a game and when you're not your standing on the field catching lazy fly balls and routine grounders. Yeah yeah you get the occasional plays where you have to run but big deal.

 

It makes me laugh really especially with the money they make.

 

 

You also need to get some occasional action for the bench players so they’re not too rusty when you need them…

[Bellhorn04]

I once called Cora the GOAT Manger of the Sox, so lumping me with the "carpers" seems a bit harsh.

 

You say resting players worked in 2018, but is that really why we won?

 

Hell, playing them too much in the playoffs was largely blamed for restgate '19.

 

Restgate was only about pitchers, of course.

[Bellhorn04]

You also need to get some occasional action for the bench players so they’re not too rusty when you need them…

 

Excellent point.

[Bellhorn04]

I never understood the whole lefty VS lefty matchups on how they always try to pinch hit or start a heavy right handed lineup.

They don't do the same for a right handed pitcher.

 

For some reason lefty pitchers tend to eat up lefty batters moreso than righties on righties do.

 

Hence the infamous LOOGY which has now thankfully been mostly nullified. (Sorry notin.)

[moonslav59]

I never understood the whole lefty VS lefty matchups on how they always try to pinch hit or start a heavy right handed lineup.

They don't do the same for a right handed pitcher.

 

They don't?

 

Red Sox Splits since 2004

 

L v L: .718

L v R: .801

73 differential

 

R v R: .762

R v L: .806

44 differential

 

This shows it should be more meaningful playing LHBs vs RHPs than RHBs v LHPs.

[dgalehouse]

It is natural that a batter would feel more comfortable standing in against an opposite hand pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

They don't?

 

Red Sox Splits since 2004

 

L v L: .718

L v R: .801

73 differential

 

R v R: .762

R v L: .806

44 differential

 

This shows it should be more meaningful playing LHBs vs RHPs than RHBs v LHPs.

 

Shouldn't it be

 

L v L: .718

R v L: .806

 

L v R: .801

R v R: .762

 

The bigger differential comes from RH batters against lefties instead of LH batters.

[moonslav59]

Excellent point.

 

We had plenty of times to "rest" Dugo, Duran and Yoshida by playing Refsnyder in every game a lefty started. We did not.

 

My biggest beef has been Cora giving days off at the wrong time:

1. After a player went 4-5 the day before.

2. vs the wrong handed pitcher.

3. In the middle of a longer hot streak.

4. Near or right before of after a day off or AS break.

 

Why is Casas starting 12 out of 33 games vs LHPs, but not all the games vs RHPs (80 out of 85)?

.867 v R

.696 v L

 

I could go on and on.

 

I would not be complaining about an excessive amount of days off as much, if Cora gave then out at better times, but I sill think he give too many.

 

I'm fine with no 162 out of 162 or even no 160/162, but IMO, Cora gives out too many.

 

I do think rest helps.

I do think playing subs more prepares them for eventual high need longer playing times due to injuries.

I don't think that trade-off is worth the loss of a top bat in games we need to win.

 

It's not a slam dunk case from either side of this debate.

 

[moonslav59]

Shouldn't it be

 

L v L: .718

R v L: .806

 

L v R: .801

R v R: .762

 

The bigger differential comes from RH batters against lefties instead of LH batters.

 

Yes, that shows it better, but my way shows how lefty batters tend to have bigger split swings.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll take Cora's opinion over a message board poster's opinion, no matter how much I might respect the poster's opinion. It's as simple as that.

[illinoisredsox]

We had plenty of times to "rest" Dugo, Duran and Yoshida by playing Refsnyder in every game a lefty started. We did not.

 

My biggest beef has been Cora giving days off at the wrong time:

1. After a player went 4-5 the day before.

2. vs the wrong handed pitcher.

3. In the middle of a longer hot streak.

4. Near or right before of after a day off or AS break.

 

Why is Casas starting 12 out of 33 games vs LHPs, but not all the games vs RHPs (80 out of 85)?

.867 v R

.696 v L

 

I could go on and on.

 

I would not be complaining about an excessive amount of days off as much, if Cora gave then out at better times, but I sill think he give too many.

 

I'm fine with no 162 out of 162 or even no 160/162, but IMO, Cora gives out too many.

 

I do think rest helps.

I do think playing subs more prepares them for eventual high need longer playing times due to injuries.

I don't think that trade-off is worth the loss of a top bat in games we need to win.

 

It's not a slam dunk case from either side of this debate.

 

 

I think a day off every couple weeks is fine. That would mean a field player would be in the 149-150 game range. Catching should be split roughly 60-40.

 

On this year's team, Yoshida seems to have problems playing 6-7 games a week. His slow streaks have happened when he plays more than that. We can complain about it all we want, but the data says he does. It's probably a cultural thing; not sure how Japanese schedules work. One thing for sure is the Japanese teams never switch time zones.

 

As notin said, you have to give the bench guys some playing time; else, when needed, they are going to be worthless.

Edited August 15, 2023 by illinoisredsox

[Bellhorn04]

Why is Casas starting 12 out of 33 games vs LHPs, but not all the games vs RHPs (80 out of 85)?

.867 v R

.696 v L

 

 

80 out of 85 is a pretty high % for a rookie who was struggling early in the season (OPS of .667 at the end of May). Plus his fielding hasn't been the greatest. Not sure why you have a beef with that.

 

I think you'd have to do it on a game by game basis for a little better insight into why a certain player might have been sitting. And in each case I'm confident Cora would have had an explanation.

[illinoisredsox]

In Red Sox lore, the anti-Cora was Don Zimmer. While it's hard to blame a manager when players don't perform, Zim infamously burned out the 1978 Sox regulars by never letting up on the gas. He kept playing Butch Hobson at third base when he could barely lift his arm with an elbow full of bone chips, which led to 43 errors -- most in the majors at any position.

 

But Zim admired Hobson because he was such a "tough sumbitch" (paraphrasing Gammons). He had no choice to bench Dwight Evans, though, after Dewey got beaned and was seeing triple.

 

Overall, the '78ers employed only 17 total Red Sox batters -- the team's least amount in a season in the entire divisional era (over half a century)... and missed the postseason by one game. This year's Sox have already used 27...

 

Playing Hobson like that was stupid. What he did to Fisk was borderline criminal. That 1978 season saw Pudge play in 157 games (out of 163). He caught in 154 games, starting 150 games of those and played 148 complete games at catcher. That was after Zimmer had also abused him in 1977, when he played in 151 games, caught in 149 and caught 144 complete games.

[Bellhorn04]

And as far as the hot hand/rest day thing goes, there are some flaws in the logic with that. For example, Story went 4 for 4 in his last game, but guess what, the team didn't play yesterday, so in effect he had a rest day. Wouldn't that cool him off just as much as sitting on the bench? Are we expecting the Sox not to hit tonight because they all had a rest day?

[moonslav59]

I think a day off every couple weeks is fine. That would mean a field player would be in the 149-150 game range. Catching should be split roughly 60-40.

 

On this year's team, Toshida seems to have problems playing 6-7 games a week. His slow streaks have happened when he plays more than that. We can complain about it all we want, but the data says he does. It's probably a cultural thing; not sure how Japanese schedules work. One thing for sure is the Japanese teams never switch time zones.

 

As notin said, you have to give the bench guys some playing time; else, when needed, they are going to be worthless.

 

I see the merits from both sides of the debate, and I share the concerns about a few players like Yoshida or older players. Certainly, I want catchers resting more often.

 

However, I do think some players can and should play 156-159 games, a year, if they are...

 

Young & healthy

Don't have major issues vs LHPs or RHPs

Are a big step up from their replacement

Not slumping

 

When the team has a guy like Refsnyder, who has killed LHPs for 2 years, I'm fine with rotating the LHB OF'ers rest days.

 

When the team has a guy like Turner, I'm fine with resting Casas v LHPs, but why is he getting days off vs RHPs, and starting some vs LHPs? Because he was "scheduled" for the day off, day or weeks ahead of time? (I disagree.)

 

Playing Turner at 1B, also allows Yoshida to "rest" by playing DH. Yoshida has DH'd 41 times, this year. I'm not sure he needs 16 rest days by mid August.

 

I like this debate. Some good points are being made, all around, but so far, none have changed my mind.

 

I also agree with Bell. Cora's opinion matters more than any poster's here, including mine.

 

I respect his opinion more than any one else's, including mine. (This will drive Red nuts.)

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

Resting players is a joke in this sport unless you have a lingering injury.

You swing a bat 4-5-times a game and when you're not your standing on the field catching lazy fly balls and routine grounders. Yeah yeah you get the occasional plays where you have to run but big deal.

 

It makes me laugh really especially with the money they make.

 

Could not agree more about the amount of physical exertion in playing a game--except for pitchers and catchers, of course. Thus does every MLB team carry 2 catchers and 6 thousand or so pitchers.

 

No, I think the grind is maintaining focus during the 135 or so pitches your team's pitchers throw in every game. Plus every now and then your runner on first base has to sprint toward second on every pitch because of a 3-2 count and 2 outs. Plus baserunners have to be really focused, which we all can acknowledge is harder than it looks, especially 6 games a week for 6 months. Plus, of course, I like the notion of using the bench guys more often than once a month.

 

On the other hand, we also know that four guys on the Braves have played all 117 games so far this season--in the hottest summer in human history (we think). And they have played well because all four have solid WAR's (fWAR's). And the Braves right now only have the best freaking record, 77-42 (.647), in MLB. (Footnote: Albies missed the last 2 games with an injury, so right now just Riley, Acuna, and Olson have played all 119 games for the Braves.)

 

So I am not saying Cora's way is the only way, but am saying his way works for him and the Sox.

[Randy Red Sox]

could someone please draw up an EASIER schedule for the Sox. Maybe we could play a Little League team for our next 4 games??