A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[dgalehouse]

The Mariners seem to be coming on strong , while the Blue Jays are fading. Seattle actually has fewer losses than Toronto.

[mvp 78]

BTV has offered volatile valuations for nearly 27-year-old Jarren Duran, who had posted a negative 0.4 fWAR in each of his two previous seasons. The Mariners would probably prefer to take their chances with outfielders Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone and Taylor Trammell (to complement Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic going forward).

 

Harmony + Duran convo = Trammell mention

 

That’s a guarantee!

[harmony]

Harmony + Duran convo = Trammell mention

 

That’s a guarantee!

Thank you for the invitation!

 

Jarren Duran indeed has been among the biggest surprises this season while Taylor Trammell's broken wrist in February put a damper on his season.

 

Duran has broken out this year after posting a wRC+ of 120 in 307 plate appearances last year in Triple A. Trammell, who is a full year younger than Duran, has posted a wRC+ of 130 in 248 plate appearances this year after a late start at Triple A.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/taylor-trammell/19960/stats?position=OF

 

The chances of a Duran-type turnaround are slim but the Mariners have not given up on Trammell.

[dgalehouse]

I have been looking forward to this soft stretch in the schedule as a chance for the Sox to make a serious run for a playoff spot. So far, they are doing what they have to do. Don't let up now. Hopefully , they can build some winning momentum for the tougher opponents down the road.

[Hugh2]

Do the Red Sox have a controllable bat to spare?

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2023/8/10/23826775/the-mariners-have-drafted-and-developed-an-entire-rotation-in-just-five-years

 

No thank you, I’d rather sign Yama, maybe Snell too.

[moonslav59]

If I told you in March, our top leaders in GS would be

19 Bello

15 Paxton

14 Crawford

You might ask, if we had the worst record in MLB.

 

A pitcher who never missed a start would have about 23 starts, by now (116/5).

 

Here is the team W-L record by SP'er:

9-3 Sale

13-6 Bello

6-4 Whitlock (4 starts with 2 or less, 6 with 4 or less ands 7 with 5 or less)

5-5 Pivetta (6 starts with 4 or less, 7 with 5 or less)

7-8 Paxton (8 starts with 4 or less run support, 10 with 5 or less)

6-7 Houck (7 starts with less than 2 runn support!)

6-8 Crawford (8 starts with 4 or less)

3-6 Kluber (3 starts with 1 or less, 5 with 4 or less)

 

6-8 Others

Edited August 12, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

 

A pitcher who never missed a start would have about 23 starts, by now (116/5).

 

 

Assuming 23 GS would be the norm for a SP who never missed a start, our SP'er have missed these amounts of starts:

 

4 Bello

8 Paxton

11 Sale

13 Whitlock

14 Kluber (demoted before IL)

 

If you viewed Pivetta as being in the "all healthy rotation," he missed 13 starts due to demotion not injury.

[Randy Red Sox]

Signing FA SP on the back half of their careers is a losing proposition. For ex Snell is a good pitcher for sure but his best days are behind not in front of him. Tampa knows when to move from pitchers. the route to go is find your own YOUNG P prospects and develop them. See Cleveland and Settle for just 2 examples.

I have been looking forward to this soft stretch in the schedule as a chance for the Sox to make a serious run for a playoff spot. So far, they are doing what they have to do. Don't let up now. Hopefully , they can build some winning momentum for the tougher opponents down the road.

[Duran Is The Man]

Signing FA SP on the back half of their careers is a losing proposition. For ex Snell is a good pitcher for sure but his best days are behind not in front of him. Tampa knows when to move from pitchers. the route to go is find your own YOUNG P prospects and develop them. See Cleveland and Settle for just 2 examples.

 

that was my thinking but apparently Bloom would rather draft shortstops and then later trade them for pitchers. at least that's what i've been told.

[harmony]

I have been looking forward to this soft stretch in the schedule as a chance for the Sox to make a serious run for a playoff spot. So far, they are doing what they have to do. Don't let up now. Hopefully , they can build some winning momentum for the tougher opponents down the road.

Seattle has a relatively soft 18 games remaining in August (7 KC, 3 OAK, 3 CWS, 3 HOU, 2 BAL) but a brutal 29-game September schedule that culminates with 10 games against Texas (7) and Houston (3).

 

The Mariners could control their destiny.

 

Or not.

Edited August 12, 2023 by harmony

[dgalehouse]

Seattle has a relatively soft 18 games remaining of August (7 KC, 3 OAK, 3 CWS, 3 HOU, 2 BAL) but a brutal 29-game September schedule that culminates with 10 games against Texas (7) and Houston (3).

 

The Mariners could control their destiny.

 

Or not.

 

They currently have an eight game winning streak against some pretty good opponents.

Edited August 12, 2023 by dgalehouse

[moonslav59]

Seattle has a relatively soft 18 games remaining of August (7 KC, 3 OAK, 3 CWS, 3 HOU, 2 BAL) but a brutal 29-game September schedule that culminates with 10 games against Texas (7) and Houston (3).

 

The Mariners could control their destiny.

 

Or not.

 

TEX and or HOU might not care about winning those last games. They may be resting some players.

[Maxbialystock]

that was my thinking but apparently Bloom would rather draft shortstops and then later trade them for pitchers. at least that's what i've been told.

 

In Bloom's defense there is scant evidence the Sox know how to develop pitchers--and that's been true for over fifty years. There have been a few, of course, but mostly the Sox trade for good pitchers. Right now, this season, Eovaldi, Wacha, and ERod are all pitching way better for other teams than they did for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

In Bloom's defense there is scant evidence the Sox know how to develop pitchers--and that's been true for over fifty years. There have been a few, of course, but mostly the Sox trade for good pitchers. Right now, this season, Eovaldi, Wacha, and ERod are all pitching way better for other teams than they did for the Sox.

 

Scant???!!!!???!!!!

 

Houck

Whitlock

Bello

Crawford

Winckowski

Murphy

 

I'd say this is a little more than "scant" that maybe our developing program is improving. Maybe Perales, Wikelman, Drohan, Walter, E R-C and others may prove you right, but I'm sensing a change for the good.

 

BTW, in the last 50 years, we did have a few short stretches of nice pitcher development, unless it was just blind luck.

 

The Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Masterson and Anibal Sanchez era

 

The Clemens, Hurst, Ojeda and Boyd era

 

[Duran Is The Man]

In Bloom's defense there is scant evidence the Sox know how to develop pitchers--and that's been true for over fifty years. There have been a few, of course, but mostly the Sox trade for good pitchers. Right now, this season, Eovaldi, Wacha, and ERod are all pitching way better for other teams than they did for the Sox.

 

i do agree to a point. quality homegrown pitching seems to be few and far between.

[moonslav59]

i do agree to a point. quality homegrown pitching seems to be few and far between.

 

Yes, between then and now, but not now... (maybe.)

[moonslav59]

This might be more about next year, but here it is. We lost some big names, last winter- much more than we will lose, this winter.

 

I figure we will lose about $40M in tax budget salary, assuming we don't resign or bring back any one who is a FA or has an option. (Kluber, Duvall, Paxton, Mondesi, Turner & Joely.)

 

The only two that really matter are Paxton and Turner. If JH allows the budget to be near or over the tax line in 2024, we should have an easier task than last winter. The Devers extension kicks in and will add about $12M, so that is significant.

 

The ARB raises will add some more:

Dugo 3rd arb of 4 ($6.3M in '23)

Pivetta 3 of 3 ($5.4)

Urias 3 of 4 ($4.7)

McGuire 2 of 3 ($1.3M)

 

Without any outside additions, this would be the foundation we have to build on. Some may think it looks severely lacking and should be much better, by now. Some may think it shows some serious improvement over what we looked like in 2020. Most are probably somewhere in between.

 

The 26

SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Houck, Crawford

RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Whitlock, Murphy, Joely, Bernardino

C: Wong, McGuire

1B: Casas

2B: Urias, Reyes

SS: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela

RF: Verdugo, Abreu

DH: Yoshida

 

The rest of the 40: (Red= Rule 5 Protected)

SP: Walter, Drohan, Wikelman, Perales

RP: Kelly, Mills, Robertson, Jacquez, Barraclough

C: SScott

1B: Dalbec

2B: EValdez

SS: DHamilton

3B: Paulino

 

 

Removed from 40:

Ort, Garza, Llovera

 

 

[Hugh2]

This might be more about next year, but here it is. We lost some big names, last winter- much more than we will lose, this winter.

 

I figure we will lose about $40M in tax budget salary, assuming we don't resign or bring back any one who is a FA or has an option. (Kluber, Duvall, Paxton, Mondesi, Turner & Joely.)

 

The only two that really matter are Paxton and Turner. If JH allows the budget to be near or over the tax line in 2024, we should have an easier task than last winter. The Devers extension kicks in and will add about $12M, so that is significant.

 

The ARB raises will add some more:

Dugo 3rd arb of 4 ($6.3M in '23)

Pivetta 3 of 3 ($5.4)

Urias 3 of 4 ($4.7)

McGuire 2 of 3 ($1.3M)

 

Without any outside additions, this would be the foundation we have to build on. Some may think it looks severely lacking and should be much better, by now. Some may think it shows some serious improvement over what we looked like in 2020. Most are probably somewhere in between.

 

The 26

SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Houck, Crawford

RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Whitlock, Murphy, Joely, Bernardino

C: Wong, McGuire

1B: Casas

2B: Urias, Reyes

SS: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela

RF: Verdugo, Abreu

DH: Yoshida

 

The rest of the 40: (Red= Rule 5 Protected)

SP: Walter, Drohan, Wikelman, Perales

RP: Kelly, Mills, Robertson, Jacquez, Barraclough

C: SScott

1B: Dalbec

2B: EValdez

SS: DHamilton

3B: Paulino

 

 

Removed from 40:

Ort, Garza, Llovera

 

 

 

It’s much more probable then not the Sox to over the tax line. Most years they do, this year was a reset year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Scant???!!!!???!!!!

 

Houck

Whitlock

Bello

Crawford

Winckowski

Murphy

 

I'd say this is a little more than "scant" that maybe our developing program is improving. Maybe Perales, Wikelman, Drohan, Walter, E R-C and others may prove you right, but I'm sensing a change for the good.

 

BTW, in the last 50 years, we did have a few short stretches of nice pitcher development, unless it was just blind luck.

 

The Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Masterson and Anibal Sanchez era

 

The Clemens, Hurst, Ojeda and Boyd era

 

 

Game stories show concern about poor Bello and all the innings he's throwing this season. He's only 24 and already thrown over 100 -- and last year (majors and minors combined) threw over 150!

 

Clemens threw 254 IP, plus 34 more in the postseason, when he was 23 in 1986. To show how taxing that was, the next year he threw 281 IP. From '86-96 Roger averaged 249 IP in Boston (this all happened before he changed his training in Toronto).

 

Hurst averaged 232 IP in Boston, in his 25 to 30 age years. Boyd, who threw 272 IP at age 25 in 1985, averaged 224 IP over a 10-year MLB career. Ojeda averaged 200 IP for 15 seasons.

 

That was all done in an era when athletes were smaller, weaker and slower... compared to today.

[notin]

Game stories show concern about poor Bello and all the innings he's throwing this season. He's only 24 and already thrown over 100 -- and last year (majors and minors combined) threw over 150!

 

Clemens threw 254 IP, plus 34 more in the postseason, when he was 23 in 1986. To show how taxing that was, the next year he threw 281 IP. From '86-96 Roger averaged 249 IP in Boston (this all happened before he changed his training in Toronto).

 

Hurst averaged 232 IP in Boston, in his 25 to 30 age years. Boyd, who threw 272 IP at age 25 in 1985, averaged 224 IP over a 10-year MLB career. Ojeda averaged 200 IP for 15 seasons.

 

That was all done in an era when athletes were smaller, weaker and slower... compared to today.

 

And in 1891, 24yo Cy Young threw 423IP.

 

But then the reason for Bello’s upper limit doesn’t rest solely on age…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And in 1891, 24yo Cy Young threw 423IP.

 

But then the reason for Bello’s upper limit doesn’t rest solely on age…

 

Found this quote about Cy from AG Spalding: "We're gonna take care of this kid"

[Larry Cook]

I think Bello had hit a wall and his arm is dragging a bit.

 

But the strength he develops this year should mean he is a stud next year

[notin]

Found this quote about Cy from AG Spalding: "We're gonna take care of this kid"

 

They had to. He couldn’t have Tommy John surgery. Tommy John the pitcher hadn’t even been invented yet.

 

Although I’m not sure why you want to see Bello returned to the pitching habits that destroyed young arms and pitching careers prematurely. The Sox have struggled to get a pitcher like Bello from the system without trading him away. Why would they want to jump start his tendinitis?

[Maxbialystock]

Interesting. The so-called "Realistic View of 2023" has become the "Realistic View of 2024.

 

So apparently moonslav has given up on 2023--and he may be right. Now that the pitching is decent--and I do agree with the concerns about Bello--the hitting has tanked for 15 games now, during which they have scored on average 3.28 runs per game, including the unearned runs like the one last night.

 

With Whitlock back today and Houck in 2 days, it does look like the Sox pitching is in pretty good shape. So all the caterwauling about how desperately the Sox needed one, two, or even three good starters now looks excessive.

 

Instead, it turns out Bloom should have been looking for some reliable bats. Devers, Story, Duvall, Yoshida, Duran, Refsnyder, Verdugo, Wong, et al, are substandard. Casas is still hitting and possibly Turner. Reyes was hot, but seems to be cooling off.

[Bellhorn04]

They had to. He couldn’t have Tommy John surgery. Tommy John the pitcher hadn’t even been invented yet.

 

Although I’m not sure why you want to see Bello returned to the pitching habits that destroyed young arms and pitching careers prematurely. The Sox have struggled to get a pitcher like Bello from the system without trading him away. Why would they want to jump start his tendinitis?

 

Who would have thought that the human arm doesn't benefit from throwing stitched-together round projectiles at absurd rates of velocity and spin?

Edited August 13, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

Who would have that the human arm doesn't benefit from throwing stitched-together round projectiles at absurd rates of velocity and spin?

 

Nothing ruins a pitcher’s career more than pitching.

 

 

 

I think James Andrews has that stitched on a throw pillow on his back deck, overlooking the 10,000 square foot swimming pool and 1,400 square foot changing house…

[moonslav59]

It’s much more probable then not the Sox to over the tax line. Most years they do, this year was a reset year.

 

I'm thinking we would not have gone over the line, this year, even if we stayed under, last year, but that's a seperate issue.

 

[moonslav59]

Interesting. The so-called "Realistic View of 2023" has become the "Realistic View of 2024.

 

So apparently moonslav has given up on 2023--and he may be right. Now that the pitching is decent--and I do agree with the concerns about Bello--the hitting has tanked for 15 games now, during which they have scored on average 3.28 runs per game, including the unearned runs like the one last night.

 

With Whitlock back today and Houck in 2 days, it does look like the Sox pitching is in pretty good shape. So all the caterwauling about how desperately the Sox needed one, two, or even three good starters now looks excessive.

 

Instead, it turns out Bloom should have been looking for some reliable bats. Devers, Story, Duvall, Yoshida, Duran, Refsnyder, Verdugo, Wong, et al, are substandard. Casas is still hitting and possibly Turner. Reyes was hot, but seems to be cooling off.

 

I am far from "giving up on 2023."

 

To talk about 2024, as you too have done, does not mean I'm thinking 2023 is over.

[moonslav59]

Nothing ruins a pitcher’s career more than pitching.

 

 

 

I think James Andrews has that stitched on a throw pillow on his back deck, overlooking the 10,000 square foot swimming pool and 1,400 square foot changing house…

 

If they just stopped throwing hard and trying to spin it so much!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They had to. He couldn’t have Tommy John surgery. Tommy John the pitcher hadn’t even been invented yet.

 

Although I’m not sure why you want to see Bello returned to the pitching habits that destroyed young arms and pitching careers prematurely. The Sox have struggled to get a pitcher like Bello from the system without trading him away. Why would they want to jump start his tendinitis?

 

You mean staying out late partying every night, like he was some modern-day Disco Denny?

 

I never said the Red Sox should force a workload on Bello that didn't destroy all those starters Moon listed from the 80s who each averaged 200 IP per year for at least a decade.

 

But what about this: my 12-year-old -- who's a lot sharper than me -- said he wonders if Bello is the one with the bad habits (young stud living in Boston with big league money), because he absolutely sucks in the daytime.

 

My kid has a lot of Sheldon in him, but I went ahead and looked up Bello's splits to be sure... night games: 8-3, 2.71, .229 BA... vs. day games: 0-4, 7.33, .339 BA. YIKES.