A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

One thing that's probably not going to happen but that would amuse me is if the Sox sign Luis Severino and try to resurrect him.

 

I bet he throws harder than Kluber.

[Nick]

We have not used an opener in 7 games...

 

Our rotation should be going forward starting Tuesday

 

Pivetta

Paxton

Sale

Bello

Crawford

 

I heard Cora say they are stretching out Houck.

 

We have Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Whitlock, Bernardino, Houck, Murphy and Llovera in the pen? Walter may still be in the mix.

 

Not sure if we could have done much better at the trade deadline.

[Nick]

Toronto goes to Philly, we play the National, we're down 2 games in the loss column.

[moonslav59]

We have not used an opener in 7 games...

 

Our rotation should be going forward starting Tuesday

 

Pivetta

Paxton

Sale

Bello

Crawford

 

I heard Cora say they are stretching out Houck.

 

We have Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Whitlock, Bernardino, Houck, Murphy and Llovera in the pen? Walter may still be in the mix.

 

Not sure if we could have done much better at the trade deadline.

 

Are you are assuming no pitcher goes on the IL in the next 7 weeks, and that no SP'er we traded for would have won any of 3 of the pen games we lost from July 30 on?

[moonslav59]

Toronto goes to Philly, we play the National, we're down 2 games in the loss column.

 

It's not really "now or never," but it sure would help to gain a game or two in the next 3 days.

[Nick]

Are you are assuming no pitcher goes on the IL in the next 7 weeks, and that no SP'er we traded for would have won any of 3 of the pen games we lost from July 30 on?

 

Looks like Bello will need an extra day's rest so Houck maybe inserted if we have several games with no days off. He's getting closer to last year's innings pitched. They will watch him closely.

[moonslav59]

Damn!

 

Canzone homered with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth to tie BAL 3-3!

[moonslav59]

Looks like Bello will need an extra day's rest so Houck maybe inserted if we have several games with no days off. He's getting closer to last year's innings pitched. They will watch him closely.

 

Agreed, just don't go to piggy-backing!

[Nick]

Damn!

 

Canzone homered with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth to tie BAL 3-3!

 

That was crazy. The batter before hit it out but was snatched by the CF for Seattle. Then the next guy hits a HR. That should have been the game winner.

 

Seattle lost 5-3 so good for us.

[moonslav59]

BAL ended up beating SEA in 10.

 

WC Race

71-49 TBR

68-51 HOU

66-54 TOR

 

63-54 SEA -1.5 (-4.0 HOU/-6.5 TBR & TEX)

62-56 BOS -3.0 (-1.5 SEA/ -5.5 HOU/ -8.0 TBR & TEX)

60-58 NYY -5.0 (-7.5 HOU)

 

[moonslav59]

Starting September 4th (not chronological order)

 

BOS

7 BAL

5 TBR

4 NYY

3 TOR

3 TEX

3 CWS

 

TOR

6 TBR

6 NYY

3 BOS

3 TEX

3 KCR

3 OAK

 

HOU

6 KCR

3 BAL

3 TEX

3 SEA

3 ARI

3 SDP

3 OAK

 

SEA

7 TEX

4 TBR

3 HOU

3 LAD

3 CIN

3 LAA

3 OAK

 

 

[moonslav59]

bos

7 hou

3 lad

3 nyy

3 wsh

3 kcr

 

tor

3 bal

2 phi

3 cin

3 cle

3 col

3 wsh

 

hou

7 bos

3 sea

3 nyy

3 mia

3 det

 

 

sea

7 kcr

3 hou

3 nym

3 cws

3 kcr

3 oak

 

[moonslav59]

Before today's game, these were the fWARs:

2.6 Duran (2.1 BWAR)

2.2 Devers (2.6)

2.0 Dugo (2.8)

1.7 Turner (2.1)

1.5 Paxton (2.1)

1.3 Sale (1.0)

1.2 Bello (2.8)

1.2 Crawford (1.7)

1.2 Duvall (1.0)

1.2 Yoshida (1.6)

1.0 Jansen (1.1)

0.9 Martin (2.2)

0.9 Houck (0.7)

0.9 Casas (1.2)

0.8 Wong (1.7)

0.7 Pivetta (1.5)

0.7 Bernardino (1.2)

0.5 Whitlock (0.2)

0.5 McGuire (-0.2)

0.5 Refsnyder (0.2)

0.4 Winckoski (1.4)

0.4 Reyes (0.8)

0.3 Murphy (0.8)

0.3 Schreiber (0.6)

 

AVG fWAR and bWAR (seems more realistic)

2.4 Duran

2.4 Devers

2.4 Dugo

2.1 Turner

2.0 Bello

1.8 Paxton

1.6 Martin

1.5 Crawford

1.4 Yoshida

1.3 Wong

1.2 Sale

1.1 Duvall

1.1 Jansen

1.1 Casas

1.1 Pivetta

1.0 Bernardino

0.9 Winckowski

0.8 Houck

0.6 Reyes

0.6 Murphy

0.5 Schreiber

0.4 Whitlock

0.4 Refsnyder

0.2 McGuire

 

[moonslav59]

2.6 Duran (2.1 BWAR)

2.2 Devers (2.6)

2.0 Dugo (2.8)

1.7 Turner (2.1)

1.5 Paxton (2.1)

1.3 Sale (1.0)

1.2 Bello (2.8)

1.2 Crawford (1.7)

1.2 Duvall (1.0)

1.2 Yoshida (1.6)

1.0 Jansen (1.1)

0.9 Martin (2.2)

0.9 Houck (0.7)

0.9 Casas (1.2)

0.8 Wong (1.7)

0.7 Pivetta (1.5)

0.7 Bernardino (1.2)

0.5 Whitlock (0.2)

0.5 McGuire (-0.2)

0.5 Refsnyder (0.2)

0.4 Winckoski (1.4)

0.4 Reyes (0.8)

0.3 Murphy (0.8)

0.3 Schreiber (0.6)

 

AVG fWAR and bWAR (seems more realistic)

2.4 Duran

2.4 Devers

2.4 Dugo

2.1 Turner

2.0 Bello

1.8 Paxton

1.6 Martin

1.5 Crawford

1.4 Yoshida

1.3 Wong

1.2 Sale

1.1 Duvall

1.1 Jansen

1.1 Casas

1.1 Pivetta

1.0 Bernardino

0.9 Winckowski

0.8 Houck

0.6 Reyes

0.6 Murphy

0.5 Schreiber

0.4 Whitlock

0.4 Refsnyder

0.2 McGuire

 

[moonslav59]

If we end up on the outside looking in, we will only have ourselves to blame for going 0-9 vs PIT, STL and MIA- three teams that are under .500 by 12 games, combined.

 

Other contenders vs those 3 teams:

 

6-3 TOR

6-3 SEA

4-2 HOU

 

Has we just gone 4-5 vs these 3 teams, we'd be ...

+3.5 on SEA

+2 on TOR

-0.5 HOU

-3.0 TBR

 

I'm sure any of the contending teams could pick 3 other teams to flip it right back on us, but those 9 games hurt.

 

[Nick]

The MLB outlier blueprint Mets, Yankees should learn from

 

The Braves also are not slavish to load management. Right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr., second baseman Ozzie Albies, third baseman Austin Riley and first baseman Matt Olson started in those positions Sunday night against the Mets for the 117th time in 117 games — and hit, as they often do, one-through-four in the lineup. Manager Brian Snitker isn’t looking for days to get his best players off their feet. ]

 

“Playing every day is built into the culture here, handed down from Chipper Jones to Freddie Freeman to now these guys,” Weiss said. “It is the expectation. It is the group mindset.”

 

The jest of the article is analytics play but it's not the end all to everything. They value eye test from veteran coaching staff starting with the manager.

 

Why do our guys need a day off all the time?

[moonslav59]

The MLB outlier blueprint Mets, Yankees should learn from

 

The Braves also are not slavish to load management. Right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr., second baseman Ozzie Albies, third baseman Austin Riley and first baseman Matt Olson started in those positions Sunday night against the Mets for the 117th time in 117 games — and hit, as they often do, one-through-four in the lineup. Manager Brian Snitker isn’t looking for days to get his best players off their feet. ]

 

“Playing every day is built into the culture here, handed down from Chipper Jones to Freddie Freeman to now these guys,” Weiss said. “It is the expectation. It is the group mindset.”

 

The jest of the article is analytics play but it's not the end all to everything. They value eye test from veteran coaching staff starting with the manager.

 

Why do our guys need a day off all the time?

 

Maybe somewhere in between would be ideal.

[mvp 78]

Maybe somewhere in between would be ideal.

 

Yes, that's why even SoxProspects guys say "don't scout box scores." They rely on seeing the players AND analytics. It's both.

[moonslav59]

Yes, that's why even SoxProspects guys say "don't scout box scores." They rely on seeing the players AND analytics. It's both.

 

On resting players too much vs not at all or in between?

[Bellhorn04]

The resting vs. not resting is obviously a very inexact science, predicated on the idea (presumably backed by stats) that players wear down physically and mentally over the course of the season. The Braves are rejecting the idea. We'll see how it works for them.

[moonslav59]

The resting vs. not resting is obviously a very inexact science, predicated on the idea (presumably backed by stats) that players wear down physically and mentally over the course of the season. The Braves are rejecting the idea. We'll see how it works for them.

 

I have not seen better play from our rested players in August and September, over the last few years under Cora.

[Nick]

The resting vs. not resting is obviously a very inexact science, predicated on the idea (presumably backed by stats) that players wear down physically and mentally over the course of the season. The Braves are rejecting the idea. We'll see how it works for them.

 

2022 Braves (101-61)

 

162 games Olsen

162 games Swanson

159 games Riley

 

2023 Braves (117 games)

 

117 Olsen (1B)

117 Acuna (RF)

117 Riley (3B)

117 Albies (2B)

104 Rosario (LF)

101 Ozuna (DH)

096 Arcia (SS)

095 Harris (CF)

085 Murphy ©

 

2023 Red Sox (118 games)

 

111 Devers (3B)

107 Turner (DH)

105 Casas (1B)

105 Verdugo (RF)

104 Yoshida (LF)

 

Obviously Braves appears to have enjoyed an injury free season for the position players this year. That no one has control over.

 

Maybe the favorable weather at home has something to do with it. April and May sucks in Boston.

Edited August 14, 2023 by Nick

[Dipre]

Not all bodies are created equal. Therefore, not all players require the same amount of rest.

[mvp 78]

Chipper Jones never played a full 162. He played 150+ from 96-03. From 04-on, he never hit 150 games again and averaged 122 games. Seems like he eventually needed the rest. Maybe it's good depending on the age of the player?

[mvp 78]

Not all bodies are created equal. Therefore, not all players require the same amount of rest.

 

Turner can't go 162. No way. Hard to "rest" other guys at DH if you sign a fulltime DH like Masa.

[Nick]

Turner can't go 162. No way. Hard to "rest" other guys at DH if you sign a fulltime DH like Masa.

 

I'm actually surprised at Turner's number of games played. He's a gamer.

[Nick]

Not all bodies are created equal. Therefore, not all players require the same amount of rest.

 

Maybe we should look for better conditioned baseball players.

[Nick]

I have not seen better play from our rested players in August and September, over the last few years under Cora.

 

Ding Ding Ding. We have a winner. Over managing?

 

I never understood resting a player after a multiple hit games. I wouldn't want to come out when I'm swinging a hot bat. Screw 'scheduled' day off.

[moonslav59]

I'm actually surprised at Turner's number of games played. He's a gamer.

 

DH'ing so much, helps.

 

Maybe he comes back on an extension (not the option), as he realizes the DH role will prolong his career, and Fenway treats im right.

.856 Home

.826 Away

 

Fenway career: .863

Overall: .833

[moonslav59]

Ding Ding Ding. We have a winner. Over managing?

 

I never understood resting a player after a multiple hit games. I wouldn't want to come out when I'm swinging a hot bat. Screw 'scheduled' day off. Tops 1-3 days off/year beyond injury days, unless the guy is old.

 

I'm okay with resting someone, who seems tired, is facing the wrong-handed pitcher or one he has a history of struggles against, but I agree- no more "scheduled days off."

 

I'm curious, if the players like or want these days off.