A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

You mean staying out late partying every night, like he was some modern-day Disco Denny?

 

I never said the Red Sox should force a workload on Bello that didn't destroy all those starters Moon listed from the 80s who each averaged 200 IP per year for at least a decade.

 

But what about this: my 12-year-old -- who's a lot sharper than me -- said he wonders if Bello is the one with the bad habits (young stud living in Boston with big league money), because he absolutely sucks in the daytime.

 

My kid has a lot of Sheldon in him, but I went ahead and looked up Bello's splits to be sure... night games: 8-3, 2.71, .229 BA... vs. day games: 0-4, 7.33, .339 BA. YIKES.

 

Do the Sox metric geeks look at this kind of thing, or maybe do but think it's a fluke- like CERA.

 

[Nick]

I am far from "giving up on 2023."

 

To talk about 2024, as you too have done, does not mean I'm thinking 2023 is over.

 

The roster is all set up for the playoff chase....that became very clear when the trading deadline past. There's really not much more Bloom can do now. We now wait only on Houck's return.

 

I would think Rafaela would help with his defense and speed but who drops if he get the call?

[Nick]

Cody Bellinger 1b-of

1 year/$17.5M (2023), plus 2024 option

 

1 year/$17.5M (2023), plus 2024 mutual option

signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 12/6/22

23:$12.5M, 24:$25M mutual option ($5M buyout)

award bonus: $1M for Comeback Player of the Year

 

Should we have any interest in him? Add power.

 

He can play center field and Rafaela right, or vice versa. Duran in left. Trade Verdugo. Yoshida to DH.

 

I saw him in Wrigley. Good looking hitter.

[moonslav59]

The lineup is all set up for the playoff chase....there's really not much more Bloom can do. We now wait on Houck's return.

 

I would think Rafaela would help with his defense and speed but who drops if come up?

 

It's all about health, to me. If we can keep 24-26 players healthy to the end, I think we make it to the playoffs.

 

We have a tough schedule after the WSH series, but we've done pretty well vs them, and head-to-head match ups with our closest competitors gives us a great chance to gain on them.

 

I know many here see our roster as a cluster F, but I like it a lot, when healthy.

 

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF/CF

2. Yoshida DH/LF

3. Story SS

4. Devers 3B

5. Turner DH/1B

6. Casas 1B

7. Duvall CF

8. Reyes/Urias 2B

9. Wong McGuire C

 

Rotation: Sale, Bello, Paxton, Pivetta, Crawford

LR: Whitlock, Houck, Murphy

SR: Jansen, Martin, Wink, Schreiber, Bernardino or Joely

 

We have a solid back-up for every player listed here, but we really need these guys to stay healthy:

 

Sale, Paxton, Bello & Pivetta

Jansen & Martin

Wong

Casas or Turner

Story

Reyes or Urias

Devers

4 from these 5: Refsnyder, Duran, Duvall, Yoshida and Dugo

 

 

[Old Red]

It's all about health, to me. If we can keep 24-26 players healthy to the end, I think we make it to the playoffs.

 

We have a tough schedule after the WSH series, but we've done pretty well vs them, and head-to-head match ups with our closest competitors gives us a great chance to gain on them.

 

I know many here see our roster as a cluster F, but I like it a lot, when healthy.

 

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF/CF

2. Yoshida DH/LF

3. Story SS

4. Devers 3B

5. Turner DH/1B

6. Casas 1B

7. Duvall CF

8. Reyes/Urias 2B

9. Wong McGuire C

 

Rotation: Sale, Bello, Paxton, Pivetta, Crawford

LR: Whitlock, Houck, Murphy

SR: Jansen, Martin, Wink, Schreiber, Bernardino or Joely

 

We have a solid back-up for every player listed here, but we really need these guys to stay healthy:

 

Sale, Paxton, Bello & Pivetta

Jansen & Martin

Wong

Casas or Turner

Story

Reyes or Urias

Devers

4 from these 5: Refsnyder, Duran, Duvall, Yoshida and Dugo

 

 

I don’t know if the starters are good enough even if the stay healthy for two more months, but getting Whitlock, and Houck back in the BP where I’ve said they both belong for two years now, will give the BP better length, and depth.

[moonslav59]

Cody Bellinger 1b-of

1 year/$17.5M (2023), plus 2024 option

 

1 year/$17.5M (2023), plus 2024 mutual option

signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 12/6/22

23:$12.5M, 24:$25M mutual option ($5M buyout)

award bonus: $1M for Comeback Player of the Year

 

Should we have any interest in him? Add power.

 

He can play center field and Rafaela right, or vice versa. Duran in left. Trade Verdugo. Yoshida to DH.

 

I saw him in Wrigley. Good looking hitter.

 

I think we will not add a high-priced OF'er, this winter. We have a good core, now with 2 prospects that are ML ready.

 

6 OF'ers means 1 starts in AAA:

 

LF: Yoshida, Refsnyder, Duran

CF: Duran, Rafaela

RF: Dugo, Abreu

 

Now, if we plan on using Yoshida at DH for most of the year, maybe we bring back Duvall or the like.

 

I see our 2024 needs like this:

 

1. A solid SP'er that would be considered a top tier 2nd starter.

2. Another solid SP'er in the top to middle tier 3rd starter range.

3. Middle IF (depends on Story at SS or 2B.) If Urias looks good the rest of the way, maybe we just add MI depth with an emphasis on SS D.

4. RP'er in the Schreiber-Wink range skill set

5. DH/1B/OF

 

We could very well get by with just 3 major roster additions, which would mean higher salaries and hppefully better quality.

 

[Nick]

I don’t know if the starters are good enough even if the stay healthy for two more months, but getting Whitlock, and Houck back in the BP where I’ve said they both belong for two years now, will give the BP better length, and depth.

 

I will go along with Whitlock and Houck in the pen. Whitlock seems too frail to pitch 170 innings and maybe not as successful if starting. But the two would really strengthen our pen.

[moonslav59]

Before today, the fangraphs odds of making the playoffs do NOT show the Sox in a good place. I hope we look better in 4 days.

%

97 TBR

97 BAL

93 TEX

92 HOU

90 MIN

59 TOR_____

 

40 SEA

14 BOS

8 CLE

 

[moonslav59]

Over 200 PA Sox OPS Leaders

 

.847 Devers (.961 since AS Break)

.846 Duvall (.840 since AS Break)

.840 Duran (.713)

.842 Turner (.918)

.836 Casas (1.153)

.825 Yoshida (.676)

 

Others since ASB:

.979 Story

.874 Reyes

.826 McGuire

.649 Wong

.550 Refsnyder

.526 Urias

.516 Dugo

 

[Duran Is The Man]

You mean staying out late partying every night, like he was some modern-day Disco Denny?

 

I never said the Red Sox should force a workload on Bello that didn't destroy all those starters Moon listed from the 80s who each averaged 200 IP per year for at least a decade.

 

But what about this: my 12-year-old -- who's a lot sharper than me -- said he wonders if Bello is the one with the bad habits (young stud living in Boston with big league money), because he absolutely sucks in the daytime.

 

My kid has a lot of Sheldon in him, but I went ahead and looked up Bello's splits to be sure... night games: 8-3, 2.71, .229 BA... vs. day games: 0-4, 7.33, .339 BA. YIKES.

 

 

holy cow. i think your kid is smarter than Bloom's nerds.

[moonslav59]

holy cow. i think your kid is smarter than Bloom's nerds.

 

The day-night split has a bigger differential than the previously blame game of CERA:

 

4.36 w McGuire

 

3.47 w Wong

[Maxbialystock]

I don’t know if the starters are good enough even if the stay healthy for two more months, but getting Whitlock, and Houck back in the BP where I’ve said they both belong for two years now, will give the BP better length, and depth.

 

I'm pretty sure the team announced today that Houck will start. And I suspect the reason is to use 6 starters to keep from wearing them out during the current (started 4 Aug) 48 games with just 3 days off.

 

I'm not expecting more injuries to Sox pitchers, but understand they are possible.

[Nick]

2024 Projected Payroll

 

$29.100M Devers (3B)

$25.600M Sale (SP)

$23.333M Story (SS)

$18.000M Yoshida (DH)

$16.000M Jansen (CL)

$07.500M Martin (Set Up)

$04.688M Whitlock (RP)

$02.000M Refsnyder (Utility)

$20.000M Insurance, etc

$147.00M (assumes Turner opts out).

$237.00M Tax Threshhold

 

$90.00M available

 

$01.5M McGuire ©

$15.0M Wong ©, Reyes (2B), Houck (SP), Bello (SP), Kutter (SP), Winck (RP), Schreiber (RP), Duran (OF), Rafaela (OF), Bernardino (RP), Murphy (RP), Walters (RP), Reliever (1), utility (2)

$07.0M Verdugo (RF)

$06.5M Pivetta (SP)

$30.0M

 

I say we have $60M available assuming all the pre arbitration players are signed for $1M each. (see the 15 players I have listed)

 

$60M MINIMUM more if Bloom can convince Henry to go for it.

Edited August 13, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure the team announced today that Houck will start. And I suspect the reason is to use 6 starters to keep from wearing them out during the current (started 4 Aug) 48 games with just 3 days off.

 

I'm not expecting more injuries to Sox pitchers, but understand they are possible.

 

I'm fine with Houck starting over Crawford, as long as Cora uses a quick hook after 50 pitches or not allowing a batter to face him 3 times in a game.

 

We may not want to burn out Crawford, either. adding him back to the pen will give us 3 long men that can help out, when starters get pulled somewhat early.

 

Whitlock

Crawford

Murphy

 

[moonslav59]

2024 Projected Payroll

 

$29.100M Devers (3B)

$25.600M Sale (SP)

$23.333M Story (SS)

$18.000M Yoshida (DH)

$16.000M Jansen (CL)

$07.500M Martin (Set Up)

$04.688M Whitlock (RP)

$02.000M Refsnyder (Utility)

$20.000M Insurance, etc

$147.00M (assumes Turner opts out).

$237.00M Tax Threshhold

 

$90.00M available

 

$01.5M McGuire ©

$15.0M Wong ©, Reyes (2B), Houck (SP), Bello (SP), Kutter (SP), Winck (RP), Schreiber (RP), Duran (OF), Rafaela (OF), Bernardino (RP), Murphy (RP), Walters (RP), Reliever (1), utility (2)

$07.0M Verdugo (RF)

$06.5M Pivetta (SP)

$29.0M

 

I say we have $60M available assuming all the pre arbitration players are signed for $1M each. (see the 15 players I have listed)

 

$60M MINIMUM

 

If we are allowed to go over by $19.9M, that number could be close to $80M!

 

To me, it will be time to start thinking quality over quantity. I hope we look to sign 2-3 major FAs and maybe 1-2 decent depth FAs. Personally, I'd consider one major prospect for a controllable pitcher as well, but I doubt JH and Co. agree on that.)

 

$60M

$25M SP 1/2

$20M SP 2/3

$10M Middle IF

$5M depth

 

$80M

$35M SP1

$25M SP2

$15M Middle IF

$5M depth

[moonslav59]

SOX ERAs since All Star Break (6+ IP)

 

0.00 Joely (6.0 IP)

0.84 Martin (10.2)

1.46 Wink (12.1)

2.08 Jansen (8.2)

2.54 Pivetta (28.1)

3.14 Crawford (28.2)

3.48 Bernardino (10.1)

3.71 Murphy (17.0)

4.81 Paxton (24.1)

5.40 Schreiber (8.1)

5.67 Bello (33.1)

6.75 Jacques (9.1)

 

Last 30 Days ERAs Only 13 players from 26 man roster listed:

IP Pitcher ERA

29 Crawford 3.14

28 Pivetta 2.54

27 Bello 5.93

24 Paxton 4.81

17 Murphy 3.71

11 Wink 1.59

11 Martin 0.84

9 Bernardino 3.86

8 Jansen 2.16

8 Schreiber 5.40

6 Llovera 11.12 (soon to be replaced by Houck)

5 Sale 3.86

2 Whitlock 0.00

 

[Nick]

If we are allowed to go over by $19.9M, that number could be close to $80M!

 

To me, it will be time to start thinking quality over quantity. I hope we look to sign 2-3 major FAs and maybe 1-2 decent depth FAs. Personally, I'd consider one major prospect for a controllable pitcher as well, but I doubt JH and Co. agree on that.)

 

$60M

$25M SP 1/2

$20M SP 2/3

$10M Middle IF

$5M depth

 

$80M

$35M SP1

$25M SP2

$15M Middle IF

$5M depth

 

Jansen and Martin will come off the payroll after 2024, $23.5M. Maybe Houck and Whitlock can replace them at better price. ($4.8 for Whitlock)

 

I think Sale's 2025 option will be picked up assuming he is healthy, it's only $20M and $5M is deferred. Healthy Sale at $15M seems reasonable to me.

Edited August 13, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Jansen and Martin will come off the payroll after 2024, $23.5M. Maybe Houck and Whitlock can replace them at better price.

 

I think Sale's 2025 option will be picked up assuming he is healthy, it's only $20M and $5M is deferred. Healthy Sale at $15M seems reasonable to me.

 

and if we let Sale go after '24, we'll have his money added to the pot.

[Nick]

If we are allowed to go over by $19.9M, that number could be close to $80M!

 

To me, it will be time to start thinking quality over quantity. I hope we look to sign 2-3 major FAs and maybe 1-2 decent depth FAs. Personally, I'd consider one major prospect for a controllable pitcher as well, but I doubt JH and Co. agree on that.)

 

$60M

$25M SP 1/2

$20M SP 2/3

$10M Middle IF

$5M depth

 

$80M

$35M SP1

$25M SP2

$15M Middle IF

$5M depth

 

Or, we can simply sign Ohtani for 10 year $650M and sign a second starter at $15M....lol

 

Go with the outfield of Yoshida, Duran and Rafaela and Ohtani as DH. We gain two starting pitchers. Trade Verdugo and save $6M. Maybe Pivetta too.

 

Quality over quantity.

Edited August 13, 2023 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

There's no chance the Red Sox are even thinking about Ohtani. But hopefully they're thinking about the Japanese ace who doesn't hit.

[Nick]

There's no chance the Red Sox are even thinking about Ohtani. But hopefully they're thinking about the Japanese ace who doesn't hit.

 

Just let me dream for a minute.....and sign Soto year later.

[moonslav59]

Or, we can simply sign Ohtani for 10 year $650M and sign a second starter at $15M....lol

 

Go with the outfield of Yoshida, Duran and Rafaela and Ohtani as DH. We gain two starting pitchers. Trade Verdugo and save $6M. Maybe Pivetta too.

 

Quality over quantity.

 

I think Pivetta will be a bargain at his arb salary. I'm not sure Dugo would be.

 

I would not pay Ohtani even $450M/12.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Pivetta will be a bargain at his arb salary. I'm not sure Dugo would be.

 

I would not pay Ohtani even $450M/12.

 

I agree, Pivetta will be a bargain.

[moonslav59]

Other top FA SP'er, this winter:

 

Nola (30 yrs old)

Snell (turns 31 this winter)

Urias (just turned 27!)

ERod (opt out) turns 31 in April

Giolito (just turned 29)

S Gray (will turn 34, this fall)

Stroman (opt out) turns 31 in May

Montgomery (turns 31 in December)

 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (will be 25y, next season)

Kona Takahashi (will be 27)

Shota Imanaga (will be 30)

 

I'd be thrilled, if we signed Urias and YY to longer term deals. We could get both for the cost of Ohtani or Soto.

 

I'd prefer ging after Soto more than Ohtani, but I doubt we even make offers on either one.

 

Trading Dugo to save $6-7M hardly makes a difference when signing Soto, but if we can trade Dugo and _____ for a solid SP'er at a lower cost, maybe we could afford it.

 

[moonslav59]

The Marlins have nearly single-handedly put the Sox out of a playoff slot position.

 

3-0 vs Sox

0-3 vs BAL

1-2 vs TOR

1-1 vs NYY

0-3 vs TEX

 

But, they just scored 4 in the bottom of the 9th to tie NYY and have Arraez at 3B, after his triple tied it up!

 

GO MARLINS!

 

[moonslav59]

Scored 5 in the bottom of the 9th.

[moonslav59]

To bad TOR won.

HOU and NYY lost

BAL and SEA are tied.

Tex is losing 1-0.

 

Current standings with those 2 games pending:

 

70-47 TEX (Leader of ALW)

 

71-49 TBR (WC1)

68-51 HOU (WC2 and -3.0 ALW)

66-54 TOR (WC3)

 

63-53 SEA -1.0 (tied BAL in 5th inning)

62-56 BOS -3.0 &-5.5 from HOU

60-58 NYY -5.0

59-60 LAA -6.5

57-62 CLE -8.5

[Bellhorn04]

Scored 5 in the bottom of the 9th.

 

As a700hitter's avatar would say, "Make my day."

[Bellhorn04]

One thing that's probably not going to happen but that would amuse me is if the Sox sign Luis Severino and try to resurrect him.

[moonslav59]

One thing that's probably not going to happen but that would amuse me is if the Sox sign Luis Severino and try to resurrect him.

 

He's the exact fit with Richards and Kluber!

 

He'll likely get $10M/1.