A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

We finally get rid of worst WAR guy in the majors.

 

I like this team much better.

 

I am sure some here are disappointed.

[Hugh2]

We finally get rid of worst WAR guy in the majors.

 

I like this team much better.

 

I am sure some here are disappointed.

 

I doubt anyone is disappointed that Art Howe can no longer start his favorite player.

[Randy Red Sox]

There is zero chance we are getting both Stroman and Snell. I have already given my views on Stroman but Snell would be ok depending on what it costs. My fear though as with many Tampa pitchers they move on from his best days may be behind him.

Very true, but Paxton helped get us here.

 

I’d add to the rotation, but if we don’t, I can see why one might think we have little chance at top glory and should trade him.

 

I hope we add Stroman and Snell. If we add nobody, I might end up wishing we had sold on Paxton.

 

I know, sounds pretty wishy washy but I hate this halfway crap.

[moonslav59]

McGuire's .877 OPS with the Sox last year was not the real thing. This year's .665 is the real thing. And I still get the creeps from his CERA. I know it's small samples and all, but still, 6.33 and 5.42...it's like the guy has a black cloud over him when he catches for us. I wonder if he's easy to steal our signs off or something.

 

Agreed, but my point was not really meant to be about a catcher comp.

 

In the context of people saying, “How would fans react, if we traded Paxton and he did great for another team?”

 

I brought up the upset fans after the Vaz trade and how it mattered little that we won the catcher trades of 2022.

[moonslav59]

There is zero chance we are getting both Stroman and Snell. I have already given my views on Stroman but Snell would be ok depending on what it costs. My fear though as with many Tampa pitchers they move on from his best days may be behind him.

 

Agreed . O.0001 to 0.000 chance.

 

I meant my post to show how “in” I am on buying.

[moonslav59]

I doubt anyone is disappointed that Art Howe can no longer start his favorite player.

 

It bothers me, everyday.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but my point was not really meant to be about a catcher comp.

 

In the context of people saying, “How would fans react, if we traded Paxton and he did great for another team?”

 

I brought up the upset fans after the Vaz trade and how it mattered little that we won the catcher trades of 2022.

 

Personally I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison. The anger about the Vaz trade was pretty mild, really, and some of it was about "the way it was done".

 

Trading Paxton when we're in the hunt would provoke full-on outrage.

[Bellhorn04]

Modern baseball management results in some very strange decisions. People complain about Cora resting guys, but the Rangers just made the remarkable decision to skip Eovaldi's latest start to give him extra rest, and of all games to do it, they chose the first game of a series with the Astros, their main division rival. And they lost the game 10-9.

 

Sox fans would never forgive Cora for that kind of decision.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Way too many ifs.

 

The entire roster going into the season...

[notin]

You're the most pessimistic person about injuries I've ever met.

 

And yet, am I ever wrong about certain players?

[Bellhorn04]

And yet, am I ever wrong about certain players?

 

Let's put you on the spot then:

 

How many more starts will Eovaldi and Paxton each make this season? You have to provide one number for each, no combining.

 

Make your call and have it recorded for posterity!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And yet, am I ever wrong about certain players?

 

I'm certain I'm never right, once in a while.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Let's put you on the spot then:

 

How many more starts will Eovaldi and Paxton each make this season? You have to provide one number for each, no combining.

 

Make your call and have it recorded for posterity!

 

Is that for posterity or for prosperity...

 

... or in hindsight, posteriority

[Dojji]

BTW these are the guys we got back for Kike. Both look like they have potential utility as pitchers who can ride the bus between Worcester and Boston and fight for the lower spots in the pen

 

Nick Robertson -- righty with a drop or two of MLB experience who got roughed up with a 6+ ERA but a FIP in the 3's which suggests that he pitched better than that. Minor league numbers good. Misses a lot of bats. Above average command. Looks like he has some potential as middle relief.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberni01.shtml

 

Ten there's Justin Hagenman. 26 years old, so he is what he is. Hasn't seem the bigs yet. Not as overpowering as Robertson, but shows much better command. Gives up some hard contact and is prone to the long ball but keeps the ball in the strike zone. Has 5 starts this year and the game log shows a lot of multi inning appearances. Looks like one of those guys you park in the minors unless you need a garbage time arm, but could surprise us.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hagenm000jus#

 

Neither of these guys are exactly gonna be the next stud, but they both look like they could have some utility to the team and of course we have full control over them for years to come. Robertson in particular looks like he could be competitive with a few of our lower echelon relievers right now so you never know.

Edited July 26, 2023 by Dojji

[notin]

Let's put you on the spot then:

 

How many more starts will Eovaldi and Paxton each make this season? You have to provide one number for each, no combining.

 

Make your call and have it recorded for posterity!

 

Exactly what is your point here? Hoping to dash my credibility and “dispel the myth” that frequently injured players get injured frequently?

[mvp 78]

There is zero chance we are getting both Stroman and Snell. I have already given my views on Stroman but Snell would be ok depending on what it costs. My fear though as with many Tampa pitchers they move on from his best days may be behind him.

 

Chaim alluded to not spending heavily at the trade deadline. I don't think we get any high end starters. More likely they get a mid to back end rotation guy if anything. Snell's value has peaked too high right now.

[moonslav59]

Personally I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison. The anger about the Vaz trade was pretty mild, really, and some of it was about "the way it was done".

 

Trading Paxton when we're in the hunt would provoke full-on outrage.

 

Yes, the way it was done, his "team leadership," plus the fact that we added almost nobody or any fame. It was more than just Vaz.

 

My point was fans stay upset, even if the guy they got upset about trading sucked afterwards.

 

It doesn't matter if Paxton does well, sucks or gets hurt after a hypothetical trade. The fans will still be upset.

 

Last deadline, we tried to walk a thin line and keep the fans as happy as we felt they needed to be. It didn't work.

 

We sucked, anyway.

 

We went over the tax line, as a result of walking that line.

 

We hurt our longer term outlook.

 

Fans stayed angry and IMO got even more angry. It didn't matter than McGuire did better than Vaz or that Pham did okay.

 

All that mattered is, we still sucked. (Totally understandable and predictable.).

[mvp 78]

Personally I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison. The anger about the Vaz trade was pretty mild, really, and some of it was about "the way it was done".

 

Trading Paxton when we're in the hunt would provoke full-on outrage.

 

Is this team THAT much better than last year? I'm not entirely sure. They are waiting on injured pitchers to come back. About 2 games back from the expanded WC spot. This team could go either way. They are really running well with a red hot Pivetta, who is also known to get ice cold pretty quick. 86 wins might not be enough to sneak into the playoffs this season.

[mvp 78]

Modern baseball management results in some very strange decisions. People complain about Cora resting guys, but the Rangers just made the remarkable decision to skip Eovaldi's latest start to give him extra rest, and of all games to do it, they chose the first game of a series with the Astros, their main division rival. And they lost the game 10-9.

 

Sox fans would never forgive Cora for that kind of decision.

 

Eovaldi isn't the picture of health. He's only thrown over 150 innings once since 2016. I can't blame them for trying to give him an extra day here and there. They are with him day in and day out. They probably know when his arm needs another breather.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly what is your point here? Hoping to dash my credibility and “dispel the myth” that frequently injured players get injured frequently?

 

C'mon man, I'm giving you a chance to cement your credibility once and for all with a real time test. Are you passing?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, the way it was done, his "team leadership," plus the fact that we added almost nobody or any fame. It was more than just Vaz.

 

My point was fans stay upset, even if the guy they got upset about trading sucked afterwards.

 

It doesn't matter if Paxton does well, sucks or gets hurt after a hypothetical trade. The fans will still be upset.

 

I disagree. Fans are much more upset about not bringing back Eovaldi than they are about not bringing back Rich Hill. If Eovaldi was injured and Hill was pitching great that would flip. Fans are generally results-oriented.

[Bellhorn04]

Is this team THAT much better than last year? I'm not entirely sure. They are waiting on injured pitchers to come back. About 2 games back from the expanded WC spot. This team could go either way. They are really running well with a red hot Pivetta, who is also known to get ice cold pretty quick. 86 wins might not be enough to sneak into the playoffs this season.

 

They're playing extremely well right now, that's all I can say, really. I have no idea if it will continue. It's baseball.

[mvp 78]

I disagree. Fans are much more upset about not bringing back Eovaldi than they are about not bringing back Rich Hill. If Eovaldi was injured and Hill was pitching great that would flip. Fans are generally results-oriented.

 

Most fans are more knowledgeable about the wins and losses than what Eovaldi is actually up to these days IMO.

[mvp 78]

They're playing extremely well right now, that's all I can say, really. I have no idea if it will continue. It's baseball.

 

If they hadn't lost the OAK series, I'd agree with you.

[notin]

C'mon man, I'm giving you a chance to cement your credibility once and for all with a real time test. Are you passing?

 

As one of the more bold (and even accurate in my Daniel Nava/Clay Buchholz/WAPM days) predictors whose already out on a fairly shaky Paul Blackburn limb for the trade deadline, I will tell you guessing when a player will actually get hurt is nothing but luck. How does that cement credibility when the end result is based on nothing but luck?

[dannycater]

Yoshida has made Bloom into a genius. So has the team sticking with Casas over Dalbec. Pivetta been pitching lights out of late. Sox are no slouches and smart to unload Kike--although his monster series in playoffs a few years ago remains memorable.

[moonslav59]

I disagree. Fans are much more upset about not bringing back Eovaldi than they are about not bringing back Rich Hill. If Eovaldi was injured and Hill was pitching great that would flip. Fans are generally results-oriented.

 

We are on separate pages.

[mvp 78]

As one of the more bold (and even accurate in my Daniel Nava/Clay Buchholz/WAPM days) predictors whose already out on a fairly shaky Paul Blackburn limb for the trade deadline, I will tell you guessing when a player will actually get hurt is nothing but luck. How does that cement credibility when the end result is based on nothing but luck?

 

Isn't predicting when a player will get injured bad juju?

[dannycater]

Good old Daniel Nava...reminds me of the days when Brian Daubach was the team's most consistent power hitter.

[Bellhorn04]

If they hadn't lost the OAK series, I'd agree with you.

 

Really? To me that was just a random blip and they've bounced back from it just the way you'd like to see.