A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Duran Is The Man]

As players start returning from the IL, including maybe 3 from the 60 day, which would create a need to clear a roster slot, we will need to send some players to the minors and trade or DFA others.

 

60 Day IL

Schreiber (may be called within a week)

Story (mid August?)

Sale (mid August, if at all?)

 

IL

Reyes (is ready, now. His rehab time expires very soon.)

Houck (early/mid August?)

Whitlock (mid August?)

Kluber (not sure anyone cares)

McGuire (August?)

 

My Ordered DFA/Trade list:

1. Ort (2 options remaining)

2. Garza (3 options remaining)

3. Jacques (3)

4. Alfaro (0) only when McGuire is activated

5. Kluber (0) He might be 1 or 2 on my list, but maybe he can get one more chance to show he can be a plus.

6. Bleier (0)

7. Duvall (0) Trade Only

8. Kike (0- last year of control) or Arroyo (0- 1 more arb year)

9. DHam (3) He will not be DFA'd.

 

Here is what I would do...

 

Ups> Demote

Schreiber> Jacques (DFA Ort as JS comes off the 60)

Reyes> Trade Duvall or Kike (take Story off 60 to fill 40 man slot, as he starts/ends rehabbing)

Houck> Walter

Whitlock> DFA Kluber or Blier (take Sale off the 60 to fill 40 man slot, as he starts/ends rehabbing)

McGuire> DFA Alfaro

Story> DFA or trade Reyes, Arroyo or Kike (Keep Chang)

 

Someone is likely to get hurt and placed on the short or 60 day IL, before all these guys come back, of maybe some of these guys never make it back, but this is the way I see it, right now.

 

My healthy 26 man roster would be:

 

Paxton, Bello, Sale, Crawford, Houck

Pivetta, Whitlock, Winckowski

Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Joely, (Bernardino or Murphy/ demote the other)

Wong, McGuire

Casas

Story,

Chang, Reyes, (Kike or Arroyo)

Yoshida, Refsnyder

Duran, (Duvall)

Dugo

Turner

 

I think we should trade one from Duvall, Kike or Arroyo and keep Chang and Reyes on the 26 and 40.

 

 

 

 

Joely over Bernardino.....really?

[moonslav59]

Joely over Bernardino.....really?

 

Tough call, but Joely has no options remaining.

 

I have the choice being Bernardino vs Murphy with the loser being demoted.

[Duran Is The Man]

Tough call, but Joely has no options remaining.

 

I have the choice being Bernardino vs Murphy with the loser being demoted.

 

easy call for me. Joely is one of those guys that just makes me cringe every time he enters the game. all i can think about is how many runs is he going to give up.

[Duran Is The Man]

Orioles beat the Rays and move into first place tonite.

[moonslav59]

Orioles beat the Rays and move into first place tonite.

 

3 in the loss column.

[moonslav59]

easy call for me. Joely is one of those guys that just makes me cringe every time he enters the game. all i can think about is how many runs is he going to give up.

 

1. He's a lefty.

2. After returning from a long injury, he struggled in 3 of his first 5 games, but in his last 4 games:

 

4 IP

2 Hits

0 ER (0.00 ERA)

0 BB

5K

.385 OPS Against

 

Yes, it's a small sample size, but he's out of options and has another year of team control.

 

To me, it's Bernardino vs Murphy- both who can stay in the system, until the next pitcher gets hurt, which you know will happen, and can be called up.

 

I will say, Bernardino and Murphy have both pitched well enough to "deserve" to stay on the 26. I'm looking longer term, and not just 2024. I'm looking at later, this season and want to keep all 3 on the team.

[notin]

easy call for me. Joely is one of those guys that just makes me cringe every time he enters the game. all i can think about is how many runs is he going to give up.

 

Actually he’s pitched pretty well this year.

 

He had that one rough outing against the Reds with 5 ER, but hasn’t given up any since. His last 4 appearances sum up to 4 IP 0ER 2H 5K 0BB. I mean, over twice as many strikeouts as hits and walks combined?

 

Now his sample size is small on the year. Only 8 IP…

[mvp 78]

Actually he’s pitched pretty well this year.

 

He had that one rough outing against the Reds with 5 ER, but hasn’t given up any since. His last 4 appearances sum up to 4 IP 0ER 2H 5K 0BB. I mean, over twice as many strikeouts as hits and walks combined?

 

Now his sample size is small on the year. Only 8 IP…

 

He wasn't right at the start of the year, which is why he went back on the IL.

 

May - 3.25 WHIP, 6.90 xFIP, 18.00 ERA

July - 0.50 WHIP, 1.19 xFIP, 0.00 ERA

[moonslav59]

Big win tonight.

 

It still looks uncertain about us being buyers, sellers, both or neither.

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS leaders: (a new leader!)

 

.883 Duran

.882 Yoshida

.848 Duvall

.845 Devers

.832 Turner

.814 Casas (over .800!!!)

.780 Dugo

.740 Refsnyder

.709 Wongz

.702 Reyes (rehab ends soon: choice to be made)

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

ERA Leaders

SP

3.46 Paxton

3.60 Bello

4.58 Sale

5.05 Houck

5.23 Whitlock

7.04 Kluber

 

Long RP

2.96 Winckowski

3.74 Crawford

4.38 Pivetta

 

Short RP

1.52 Martin

2.27 Bernardino

3.06 Jansen

 

10-25 IP

1.69 Murphy

2.12 Schreiber

3.29 Walter

5.57 Bleier

5.79 Jacques

7.36 Garza

[moonslav59]

Injury Update:

 

Schreiber will likely be activated before tomorrow's game (Garza demoted, but who gets DFA'd or traded as he comes off the 60 day IL? My vote is always Ort.)

 

Reyes will see his rehab expiration, soon. He is out of options. I'd rather have him on the 26 and 40 than Kike. (I might even prefer we trade Duvall for something useful to make room for Reyes.) Any choice we make will be further complicated by the next guy's return.

 

Story was supposed to DH today after playing SS Friday, but he did not. I'm guessing he will be back in mid August.

 

McGuire may not be back, at all. (He would replace Alfaro, who would likely be traded or DFA'd to open a slot for Story or Sale coming off the 60 day IL.) Otherwise, we may put McGuire on the 60, instead.

 

Houck is unknown. I had hopes he might be back by now, but he hasn't even started pitching on rehab, yet. When he comes back, I expect Jacques to be demoted.

 

Whitlock is about the same as Houck. When the second one comes back, I'm not sure who gets demoted.

 

Sale might stay "Freakin' Chris Sale or comeback and be Chris Freakin' Sale, again. I'm not counting on anything more from him. Been there: done that.

 

Kluber probably should not be counted out, but I'm not expecting squat.

 

[Nick]

Updated Sox OPS leaders: (a new leader!)

 

.883 Duran

.882 Yoshida

.848 Duvall

.845 Devers

.832 Turner

.814 Casas (over .800!!!)

.780 Dugo

.740 Refsnyder

.709 Wongz

.702 Reyes (rehab ends soon: choice to be made)

 

 

The core group of Devers, Yoshida, Duran, Casas and Wong are coming along nicely. Throw in another .800 OPS guy in Story along with one year guys in Verduo and Turner, 2024 is looking better every day.

 

I'd like to see us go all in on that young, Japanese pitcher. I think Paxton loves pitching for Boston. Bring him back on a 2 year deal with a club ootion.

 

Then wait for Mayer's arrival sometime in July. The team is set.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The core group of Devers, Yoshida, Duran, Casas and Wong are coming along nicely. Throw in another .800 OPS guy in Story along with one year guys in Verduo and Turner, 2024 is looking better every day.

 

I'd like to see us go all in on that young, Japanese pitcher. I think Paxton loves pitching for Boston. Bring him back on a 2 year deal with a club ootion.

 

Then wait for Mayer's arrival sometime in July. The team is set.

 

Agree on investing in a young starting pitcher. Turner and Verdugo may be gone by '24. Expect Rafaela in CF -- Duran is a good offensive player, but just doesn't have the fundamentals to cover center for a contender; platoon him in LF/DH with Yoshida until he can hit the freaking cut-off consistently.

 

This club has to focus on better defense before it can be taken seriously.

[moonslav59]

Agree on investing in a young starting pitcher. Turner and Verdugo may be gone by '24. Expect Rafaela in CF -- Duran is a good offensive player, but just doesn't have the fundamentals to cover center for a contender; platoon him in LF/DH with Yoshida until he can hit the freaking cut-off consistently.

 

This club has to focus on better defense before it can be taken seriously.

 

I don’t disagree, but I do think Duran has turned the corner on D and is now a plus on D in CF.

 

It still surprises me they play Duvall inCF and Duran in LF, when they both play, so maybe I am wrong.

 

I’d love to see Rafaela in CF.

[Larry Cook]

I don’t disagree, but I do think Duran has turned the corner on D and is now a plus on D in CF.

 

It still surprises me they play Duvall inCF and Duran in LF, when they both play, so maybe I am wrong.

 

I’d love to see Rafaela in CF.

 

Does Rafeala get a September call up?

[moonslav59]

Does Rafeala get a September call up?

 

No.

 

It's not like the old days, when you can call up 10 or more.

[Larry Cook]

No.

 

It's not like the old days, when you can call up 10 or more.

 

Aren’t we allowed 2 call ups

[notin]

Aren’t we allowed 2 call ups

 

 

Small number but Rafaela has an advantage by being on the 40 man roster…

[Larry Cook]

Small number but Rafaela has an advantage by being on the 40 man roster…

 

Do we mess up his years of control by giving him a September call up?

[notin]

Do we mess up his years of control by giving him a September call up?

 

No. Those do not impact service time..

[moonslav59]

Aren’t we allowed 2 call ups

 

I think, yes, but they would likely be players with experience, especially if we are in the race.

 

A 14th pitcher (Murphy, Walter, Bernardino, Bleier...)

 

A utility guy like Reyes over Rafaela. (DHam or EValdez is likely ahead of Rafaela.)

[Nick]

I don’t disagree, but I do think Duran has turned the corner on D and is now a plus on D in CF.

 

It still surprises me they play Duvall inCF and Duran in LF, when they both play, so maybe I am wrong.

 

I’d love to see Rafaela in CF.

 

He can be Betts defensively and play right if Verdugo leaves after 2024.

[moonslav59]

He can be Betts defensively and play right if Verdugo leaves after 2024.

 

His arm is not good enough for RF, especially in Fenway.

 

To me, he is best in CF or LF.

[moonslav59]

Every key team won, except TBR, who lost to the O's.

 

[notin]

His arm is not good enough for RF, especially in Fenway.

 

To me, he is best in CF or LF.

 

Soxprospects.com gives him a plus arm…

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com gives him a plus arm…

 

SP's:

 

Arm: Below-average arm strength. Passable in the outfield, but throws lack carry.

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/duran-jarren.htm

 

fangraphs has his ARM as a plus for 2023 but negative over his career.

 

From what I've seen, it's not better than average for CF, and seems like it would not be plus in RF.

[illinoisredsox]

Aren’t we allowed 2 call ups

 

Allowed is the wrong word. The new rules are you have to call up 2 (i.e., all teams are required to have a 28 msn roster in September, no more, no less).

[moonslav59]

Allowed is the wrong word. The new rules are you have to call up 2 (i.e., all teams are required to have a 28 msn roster in September, no more, no less).

 

…and you can call up and send down all Sept., right?

[illinoisredsox]

…and you can call up and send down all Sept., right?

 

I believe that is correct, with a limit of 14 pitchers (rest of the season, it's 13).

 

The ability to move guys up and down all month is enhanced greatly by the change to the minor league schedules over the last few years. They used to end right about Labor Day, with their playoffs after that. Now, the AA season stretches until September 17 and the AAA season goes until September 24, so its not like the callups are sitting around all month.