A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

The goalposts are in place for a reason.

 

Goalposts are made to be broken.

[Dipre]

Goalposts are made to be broken.

 

Red card. Ejected.

[mvp 78]

Red card. Ejected.

 

This game is under protest.

[Maxbialystock]

Would they theoretically have to play the Rays in the playoffs or no?

Sure they would. And 2 seasons ago the Sox whipped the Rays in the ALDS.

[mvp 78]

Sure they would. And 2 seasons ago the Sox whipped the Rays in the ALDS.

 

Then they should start trying to beat them in the regular season at some point?

[Maxbialystock]

That’s always a worry, for us and the other teams, too.

 

 

 

Funks have run rampant, this year. Hell, the O’s have almost caught the Rays!

 

I might be blinded by our recent success, but this team looks like a winning team. I know it sounds hypocritical, as I blasted those who said, “This is who we are- a .500 team,” after a couple of our funks.

 

Winning like this with just 2 legit SPers makes me start to think the sky might be the limit, if we ever get healthy or trade for a legit starter.

 

Call me biased, if you wish. I won’t deny it.

 

Agree Sox continue to astound. Hard not to get excited.

[moonslav59]

Agree Sox continue to astound. Hard not to get excited.

 

I’ve mentioned a few times how almost all the other teams in contention have serious issues, too.

 

Some are being exposed, now.

 

Ours were exposed, earlier and may show up again, but I’m confident our returning IL players will help us avoid anymore prolonged funks.

[Maxbialystock]

I’ve mentioned a few times how almost all the other teams in contention have serious issues, too.

 

Some are being exposed, now.

 

Ours were exposed, earlier and may show up again, but I’m confident our returning IL players will help us avoid anymore prolonged funks.

 

I already posted this, but repeat it here.

 

If we are now seeing the real Crawford and the real Pivetta, then Bello, Paxton, Crawford, and Pivetta are already the best Sox rotation since, what, 2018?

 

Houck and Whitlock have never--repeat, never--been consistently good starters. Kluber is almost certainly over the hill. And, since 2017 when he faded badly in August-September, Sale has been the most fragile starter I've ever seen. Terrific, HOF material when he is healthy, but I don't see that in his future, including this year.

 

Maybe Bloom should "trade" as many of those four as possible and try to get a 5th starter elsewhere.

[notin]

I already posted this, but repeat it here.

 

If we are now seeing the real Crawford and the real Pivetta, then Bello, Paxton, Crawford, and Pivetta are already the best Sox rotation since, what, 2018?

 

Houck and Whitlock have never--repeat, never--been consistently good starters. Kluber is almost certainly over the hill. And, since 2017 when he faded badly in August-September, Sale has been the most fragile starter I've ever seen. Terrific, HOF material when he is healthy, but I don't see that in his future, including this year.

 

Maybe Bloom should "trade" as many of those four as possible and try to get a 5th starter elsewhere.

 

When you list Crawford after Paxton, it makes me think of this guy

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crawfpa02.shtml

[Hugh2]

Would they theoretically have to play the Rays in the playoffs or no?

 

Theoretically, maybe not.

 

Playoffs, throw the regular season out. How many times did the Yankees sweep the Red Sox In 2004?

[Hugh2]

Red card. Ejected.

 

There is moving the goal posts. Then there’s moving the post to the exact location needed for your goal to roll in.

[moonslav59]

I already posted this, but repeat it here.

 

If we are now seeing the real Crawford and the real Pivetta, then Bello, Paxton, Crawford, and Pivetta are already the best Sox rotation since, what, 2018?

 

Houck and Whitlock have never--repeat, never--been consistently good starters. Kluber is almost certainly over the hill. And, since 2017 when he faded badly in August-September, Sale has been the most fragile starter I've ever seen. Terrific, HOF material when he is healthy, but I don't see that in his future, including this year.

 

Maybe Bloom should "trade" as many of those four as possible and try to get a 5th starter elsewhere.

 

Houck and Whitlock have been great in the pen. Just because they have not done, well as starters doesn't mean we should trade them. Plus, why trade them when their stock has fallen, a little.

 

Sale should not be traded. I'm with you on never counting on him to pitch, again, but he did prove to me, that he can still pitch very well, when he DOES pitch. I wasn't so sure about that aspect in March. That is why I do not pay to see him pitch for another team.

 

Pivetta has not proven he can do what he has done from the pen, as a SP'er, this year. He's had spurts of doing well in 2021 and 2022, some 12-16 games long, but he's not been great as a SP'er. He has to prove he can start for me to start thinking of trading Houck and Whitlock.

 

Numbers as SP'ers:

 

2023

5.05 Houck (.695 OPSA)

5.23 Whitlock (.841)

6.30 Pivetta (.885)

 

2022

4.15 Whitlock (.723)

4.32 Houck (.663)

4.56 Pivetta (.753)

 

2021

3.68 Houck (.627)

n/a Whitlock

4.56 Pivetta (.735)

 

I've been a big Pivetta supporter over the last 3 years and wanted to let him try starting again, a few weeks ago, but he has yet to prove he can do it better than Houck and Whitlock.

 

Crawford has started to show he belongs in the rotation, for good, but he needs a few more good starts to win a slot, outright, once everyone returns (assuming they all do at some point together.)

 

I'd start Pivetta in 5 days- no doubts.

 

If he sucks, no doubt some will claim we ruined him by breaking something that didn't need fixing. IMO, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta and Crawford would be better from the pen (in long roles,) but we need 3 starters (2 if Sale returns.)

 

It's not an easy call on who should start. It's no slight on one guy by picking another. They all look better in the pen.

 

[moonslav59]

Would they theoretically have to play the Rays in the playoffs or no?

 

Maybe- maybe not. It depends who plays who in the first round or two, and who wins.

 

The way things are going, the O's might win the division and the best AL record.

[moonslav59]

We may have a chance at gaining on some ALE teams, tonight.

 

LAD 5- BAL 1 in 4th

SDP 4- TOR 1 in 4th

TBR @ TEX (One has to lose.)

NYY @ LAA (Yanks in a tailspin)

 

(HOU is at COL and should win.)

 

GO SOX!!!!

 

[Bellhorn04]

We may have a chance at gaining on some ALE teams, tonight.

 

LAD 5- BAL 1 in 4th

SDP 4- TOR 1 in 4th

TBR @ TEX (One has to lose.)

NYY @ LAA (Yanks in a tailspin)

 

(HOU is at COL and should win.)

 

GO SOX!!!!

 

 

At this point in time the Yankees and Jays look like the 2 most "passable" teams.

[moonslav59]

At this point in time the Yankees and Jays look like the 2 most "passable" teams.

 

Agreed, especially since we already passed the Yanks.

 

We need to pass one more. I put them in this order:

 

1. TOR (one more sweep and we've caught them)

2. TEX (I think they will have some issues, soon.)

3. HOU (Many injuries give us hope, here.)

4. TBR/BAL tied (I'm not convinced they have clinched.)

[moonslav59]

SDP 9-1 TOR FINAL

 

LAD 10-3 BAL in 8th

TEX 2-1 TBR in 7th

LAA 2-0 NYY in 2nd

 

COL 4-3 HOU in 6th

[mvp 78]

We may have a chance at gaining on some ALE teams, tonight.

 

LAD 5- BAL 1 in 4th

SDP 4- TOR 1 in 4th

TBR @ TEX (One has to lose.)

NYY @ LAA (Yanks in a tailspin)

 

(HOU is at COL and should win.)

 

GO SOX!!!!

 

 

Everyone lost last night. Nobody gained or lost any ground.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Everyone lost last night. Nobody gained or lost any ground.

 

... except the Red Sox now have one less game on the schedule while trying to catch clubs ahead of them.

[moonslav59]

... except the Red Sox now have one less game on the schedule while trying to catch clubs ahead of them.

 

True, but there is plenty of time and enough head to head match-ups to put making the POs in our own hands.

[mvp 78]

... except the Red Sox now have one less game on the schedule while trying to catch clubs ahead of them.

 

2+ months, it's not September.

[moonslav59]

We are less than 2 weeks away from the trade deadline and will be seeing players coming off the IL and rehab stints, shortly. We have several players with options, but there still might be some tough choices to make.

 

As we head towards the part of the season where winning becomes more important than keeping roster options numbers up, we may end up needing to trade someone or DFA a helpful player to make room for everybody. Chances are "everybody" won't be healthy all at the same time, but here is how I see it. This is what I consider our best 26 and 40.

 

Red= lock for 26 man

Black= on 40 but in the minors (have options remaining)

Blue= trade or DFA

Underlined= bubble or near bubble players with no options remaining

 

Paxton, Bello, Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Kluber

Crawford, Pivetta, Winckowski, Walter, Murphy, Mata (to 60 IL?)

Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Bernardino, Joely, Bleier, Ort, Mills & Kelly (60 Day), Scott, Faria, Garza

Wong, McGuire, Alfaro

Casas, Turner, Dalbec

Arroyo, Kike or Reyes, EValdez

Story, Chang, Mondesi (60 IL), Hamilton

Devers

Yoshida, Refsnyder

Duran, Duvall (trade?), Rafaela

Verdugo, Abreu

 

25 in red plus 1 from Kike, Reyes (Duvall?)

[moonslav59]

How about a shout out to Pivetta, Bernardino and Murphy?

 

Who would have thought they'd be big keys to the Sox resurgence?

 

OPS Against last 14 days: (PAs)

.000 Joely (9)

.143 Jansen (7)

.391 Pivetta (40)

.410 Berndarino (18)

.504 Murphy (32)

.517 Martin (14)

.665 Crawford (41)

.686 Winckowski (21)

 

Look back even farther...

Last 28 days:

.422 Pivetta (70)

.449 Berndarino (37)

.532 Martin

.619 Paxton

.670 Murphy

.670 Bello

.729 Crawford

.765 Walter

.766 Jansen

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox OPS Against leaders for the season have some surprising names, certainly from the perspective of the view before opening day:

 

60+ PAs

 

.534 Martin

.577 Bernardino

.584 Murphy

 

.633 Paxton

.671 Jansen

.679 Schreiber

.689 Crawford

.690 Bello

.695 Houck

.699 Pivetta

 

.739 Sale (2.87 ERA last 8 games)

.748 Wink

.765 Walter

.785 Brasier (Gone)

 

.841 Whitlock

.841 Bleier

.844 Garza

 

.904 Ort

.969 Kluber

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Leaders (60+ PAs)

 

.883 Yoshida

.872 Duran

.853 Devers

.843 Duvall

.831 Turner

 

.798 Verdugo

.774 Casas

.743 Refsnyder

.709 Wong

.702 Reyes

.701 Tapia (Gone)

 

.684 EValdez

.665 McGuire

.659 Arroyo

 

.596 Kike

.545 Chang

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

After last night -- (reactionary much?) -- if the Sox are reluctant to part with any actual prospects for a decent starting pitcher, I'd just as soon put Murphy into the rotation, and dispense with the 12th man on the staff as opener. The Bernardino-Pivetta combo is good, but they're pushing their luck with the Jacques and Orts of the world.

 

Murphy is the kind of promising young arm they could expect to get back in a Paxton trade, so they may not even have to deal Paxton (though the odds have to be 50-50 right up to the deadline, even if they're still going for it, esp if one of their IL guys is ready for a comeback).

[moonslav59]

After last night -- (reactionary much?) -- if the Sox are reluctant to part with any actual prospects for a decent starting pitcher, I'd just as soon put Murphy into the rotation, and dispense with the 12th man on the staff as opener. The Bernardino-Pivetta combo is good, but they're pushing their luck with the Jacques and Orts of the world.

 

Murphy is the kind of promising young arm they could expect to get back in a Paxton trade, so they may not even have to deal Paxton (though the odds have to be 50-50 right up to the deadline, even if they're still going for it, esp if one of their IL guys is ready for a comeback).

 

It's a 13 man staff, and I'm not so sure Murphy is for real, just yet. The guy sucked, second half of '22 and did nothing to impress on the farm in '23. I was surprised he was even called up, but when you use 28 pitchers in a half a season, you are bound to use almost all on the original 40 man roster.

[Bellhorn04]

It's a 13 man staff, and I'm not so sure Murphy is for real, just yet. The guy sucked, second half of '22 and did nothing to impress on the farm in '23. I was surprised he was even called up, but when you use 28 pitchers in a half a season, you are bound to use almost all on the original 40 man roster.

 

So much for the shout out, huh?

[moonslav59]

So much for the shout out, huh?

 

He's done great, and deserves a shout out, but the sample size is small, and he's never been known for having "great stuff."

 

I'm not sure it's sustainable, but I'm all for letting him keep pitching. I think he has passed Walter. They both have passed Faria and Scott, and maybe even Jacquez.

 

When pitchers start coming back from the IL, we should know more, but as of now, I'd put them both in front of Bleier, too, but Bleier has no options. (Nor does Joely.)

[moonslav59]

Some numbers to ponder:

 

Turner: .290 14 58 (.831 OPS)

JD M: .256 23 66 (.863 OPS)

 

Bogey: .255 11 36 (.737) On pace for less RBIs than '22's 73.

 

Wong .709

Sox Catchers: .692

Vazquez: .568 (.575 since trade to HOU in 323 PAS)

McGuire since trade: .768 in 224 PAs

(Plawecki is in the minors.)

 

Sox OF 2023: .821 OPS

M Betts: .963 OPS (.895 since trade)

Renfroe: .741 (.780 after trade)

Benintendi: .737 (.761 after trade)

Winckowski: 3.14 ERA (4.72 career)

Gambrell: showing signs of promise in the minors

 

Eovaldi: 11-3 2.69 (leads league in IP)

Wacha: 8-2 2.84 (15 GS)

R Hill: 7-9 4.76 (4.40 FIP in 19 GS)

Strahm: 6-3 3.75 in 9 GS and 19 relief games (58 IP)

 

Bello 7-5 3.14

Paxton 5-2 3.51

Crawford 4-4 3.74

C Sale 5-2 4.59 (2.84 in last 8 starts)

 

2022 Sox Pen: 57% Save rate, 40% Inherited Runners Scored

2023 Sox Pen: 77% Save rate, 30% IRS

 

2022 Pen: 4.59 ERA (.298 BAbip)

2023 Pen: 3.86 ERA (.299 BAbip)