A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

I believe that is correct, with a limit of 14 pitchers (rest of the season, it's 13).

 

The ability to move guys up and down all month is enhanced greatly by the change to the minor league schedules over the last few years. They used to end right about Labor Day, with their playoffs after that. Now, the AA season stretches until September 17 and the AAA season goes until September 24, so its not like the callups are sitting around all month.

 

Yes.

 

We may be yo-yoing a few players, if we are still in it.

 

On another note, we are still on pace for 86 wins. We need to win 2 of the next 3 to be on pace for 87 wins.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Yes.

 

We may be yo-yoing a few players, if we are still in it.

 

On another note, we are still on pace for 86 wins. We need to win 2 of the next 3 to be on pace for 87 wins.

 

 

Next 2 games are the Braves at Fenway, followed by 3 @ Candlestick Park (Giants) and 3 @ Seattle (Mariners). That gets us into August and through the trade deadline. Bello, Crawford, and Paxton will start 6 of those 8 games.

 

I was going to ping you about focusing on the near term, but then realized the long term--August and September--is kind of murky. What trades will Bloom make, and how well will all those Sox players on the IL perform (if they even return)?

[moonslav59]

Next 2 games are the Braves at Fenway, followed by 3 @ Candlestick Park (Giants) and 3 @ Seattle (Mariners). That gets us into August and through the trade deadline. Bello, Crawford, and Paxton will start 6 of those 8 games.

 

I was going to ping you about focusing on the near term, but then realized the long term--August and September--is kind of murky. What trades will Bloom make, and how well will all those Sox players on the IL perform (if they even return)?

 

I doubt this will happen, but I hope we trade for 2 SPers, and any returning pitcher goes to the pen. Maybe Sale would demote Crawford to the pen.

 

We may not even trade for one starter. If we do, I hope it is Stroman, Giolito, Montgomery or Snell.

 

Let’s dream of two. This would be our 13 man healthy staff:

 

SP

Bello

Paxton

Stroman

Giolito

Sale

 

Long RP

Crawford

Pivetta

Whitlock

Houck

 

Short RP

Jansen

Martin

Schreiber

Winckowski

 

That’s pretty damn solid! It might be the best pen we’ve ever had, despite not having our best closer ever.

 

This rotation and depth would be close to the best ever.

 

I guess what I’m getting at is that I’m thinking we might be 2 solid SPers away from significant contention for an actual ring!

 

Call me a Homer, but I’m starting to fall for this team.

[Dipre]

Triston Casas watch:

 

Season slash line: .247/.351/.466

OPS: .816

OPS+: 117

 

My homeboy is in the 80th percentile or better in the following statcast categories:

 

Avg Exit Velocity 86

Max Exit Velocity 86

HardHit% 81

xwOBA 87

xSLG 83

Barrel % 91

BB% 94

Chase Rate 80

 

Pretty cool huh?

[mvp 78]

Triston Casas watch:

 

Season slash line: .247/.351/.466

OPS: .816

OPS+: 117

 

My homeboy is in the 80th percentile or better in the following statcast categories:

 

Avg Exit Velocity 86

Max Exit Velocity 86

HardHit% 81

xwOBA 87

xSLG 83

Barrel % 91

BB% 94

Chase Rate 80

 

Pretty cool huh?

 

Since May 1:

290 AVG

908 OPS

145 wRC+

 

We all knew his April was terrible. He can't go back and fix that. He's been very good since then. No complaints.

[mvp 78]

His defense f***ing sucks though.

[moonslav59]

I may end up being wrong on my prediction that Turner would pass JD in OPS by season's end. JD has began to hit well, again.

 

.881 JD

.835 Turner

 

Since June 2nd:

.805 JD

.927 Turner

 

Here are a few interesting 2022 to 2023 comps:

 

OPS 2022>2023

 

OF .676> .815 (the difference maker)

DH .763> .852 (Turner has been awesome!)

1B .683> .814 (Casas da man!)

C .694> .691 (not bad, considering Vaz was known for being a good hitting catcher.)

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

I may end up being wrong on my prediction that Turner would pass JD in OPS by season's end. JD has began to hit well, again.

 

.881 JD

.835 Turner

 

Since June 2nd:

.805 JD

.927 Turner

 

Here are a few interesting 2022 to 2023 comps:

 

OPS 2022>2023

 

OF .676> .815 (the difference maker)

DH .763> .852 (Turner has been awesome!)

1B .683> .814 (Casas da man!)

C .694> .691 (not bad, considering Vaz was known for being a good hitting catcher.)

 

 

 

I honestly prefer Turner because he is way more versatile than JDM and allows Cora to improve his lineup by moving Turner around from DH to 1B to 2B to 3B--as needed.

[Maxbialystock]

His defense f***ing sucks though.

 

He's OK grabbing throws to 1B, just not so hot at grounders.

[Dipre]

He's OK grabbing throws to 1B, just not so hot at grounders.

 

Absolutely surprising considering the scouting report and what I'd seen in the minors from him.

[mvp 78]

I honestly prefer Turner because he is way more versatile than JDM and allows Cora to improve his lineup by moving Turner around from DH to 1B to 2B to 3B--as needed.

 

JD - 1.5 fWAR

JT - 1.7 fWAR

Soler - 1.5 fWAR (bonus)

[Maxbialystock]

I doubt this will happen, but I hope we trade for 2 SPers, and any returning pitcher goes to the pen. Maybe Sale would demote Crawford to the pen.

 

We may not even trade for one starter. If we do, I hope it is Stroman, Giolito, Montgomery or Snell.

 

Let’s dream of two. This would be our 13 man healthy staff:

 

SP

Bello

Paxton

Stroman

Giolito

Sale

 

Long RP

Crawford

Pivetta

Whitlock

Houck

 

Short RP

Jansen

Martin

Schreiber

Winckowski

 

That’s pretty damn solid! It might be the best pen we’ve ever had, despite not having our best closer ever.

 

This rotation and depth would be close to the best ever.

 

I guess what I’m getting at is that I’m thinking we might be 2 solid SPers away from significant contention for an actual ring!

 

Call me a Homer, but I’m starting to fall for this team.

 

Homer's OK. We should all quote the Iliad and Odyssey because they remind us each season is a battle and a journey.

 

Cora could do a lot with Giolito and Stroman--excellent laydown of the three pieces of the pitching staff with them--but I agree you are dreaming

 

I do like Whitlock and Houck joining a bullpen that already has Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, and Murphy.

 

But I'm inclined to think the rotation will be Bello, Paxton, Crawford, Pivetta (preceded by a bullpen starter), and Sale.

[Nick]

I doubt this will happen, but I hope we trade for 2 SPers, and any returning pitcher goes to the pen. Maybe Sale would demote Crawford to the pen.

 

We may not even trade for one starter. If we do, I hope it is Stroman, Giolito, Montgomery or Snell.

 

Let’s dream of two. This would be our 13 man healthy staff:

 

SP

Bello

Paxton

Stroman

Giolito

Sale

 

Long RP

Crawford

Pivetta

Whitlock

Houck

 

Short RP

Jansen

Martin

Schreiber

Winckowski

 

That’s pretty damn solid! It might be the best pen we’ve ever had, despite not having our best closer ever.

 

This rotation and depth would be close to the best ever.

 

I guess what I’m getting at is that I’m thinking we might be 2 solid SPers away from significant contention for an actual ring!

 

Call me a Homer, but I’m starting to fall for this team.

 

We are not far off...

[moonslav59]

We are not far off...

 

Agreed.

 

Looking ahead: compared to last winter, losing Bogey, Nate, JD, Wacha, Hill and Strahm, this winter we lose Paxton, Kike, Duvall and maybe Turner, we might look even better in 2024, if JH decides to go over the tax line.

[cp176]

His defense f***ing sucks though.

 

Dick Stuart from tother side? lol

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agreed.

 

Looking ahead: compared to last winter, losing Bogey, Nate, JD, Wacha, Hill and Strahm, this winter we lose Paxton, Kike, Duvall and maybe Turner, we might look even better in 2024, if JH decides to go over the tax line.

 

If we're losing Paxton, then wouldn't it make sense to get something for him before he walks- I mean, limps?

[Bellhorn04]

If we're losing Paxton, then wouldn't it make sense to get something for him before he walks- I mean, limps?

 

Sure, it would make sense if we KNEW he was going to get injured soon, or if we KNEW it wouldn't cost us making the playoffs. Just need a good crystal ball and we're all set.

[moonslav59]

If we're losing Paxton, then wouldn't it make sense to get something for him before he walks- I mean, limps?

 

For the long term, yes.

[notin]

Sure, it would make sense if we KNEW he was going to get injured soon, or if we KNEW it wouldn't cost us making the playoffs. Just need a good crystal ball and we're all set.

 

 

With Paxton, do you really need a crystal ball to know he has an injury coming?

 

The guy has three pitching phases;

 

1.About to get injured

2. Injured

3. Just back from being injured

 

The hope is he stays in 3 and 1 for three more months. But the reality is, phase 2 is always right there…

[moonslav59]

With Paxton, do you really need a crystal ball to know he has an injury coming?

 

The guy has three pitching phases;

 

1.About to get injured

2. Injured

3. Just back from being injured

 

The hope is he stays in 3 and 1 for three more months. But the reality is, phase 2 is always right there…

 

This is why I would not extend him, but we should ride the horse that got us here.

[Dipre]

With Paxton, do you really need a crystal ball to know he has an injury coming?

 

The guy has three pitching phases;

 

1.About to get injured

2. Injured

3. Just back from being injured

 

The hope is he stays in 3 and 1 for three more months. But the reality is, phase 2 is always right there…

 

How ironic is it that his nickname is The Big Maple? You know, the opposite of frail.

[Bellhorn04]

With Paxton, do you really need a crystal ball to know he has an injury coming?

 

The guy has three pitching phases;

 

1.About to get injured

2. Injured

3. Just back from being injured

 

The hope is he stays in 3 and 1 for three more months. But the reality is, phase 2 is always right there…

 

The most frightening scenario of all is that you trade him now and he stays healthy and pitching well the rest of the year (which would only not hurt if the Red Sox finish well out of the playoffs and the loss of Paxton makes no difference). That's Captain Obvious stuff, but it can't be denied.

[moonslav59]

The most frightening scenario of all is that you trade him now and he stays healthy and pitching well the rest of the year (which would only not hurt if the Red Sox finish well out of the playoffs and the loss of Paxton makes no difference). That's Captain Obvious stuff, but it can't be denied.

 

Kinda like the reverse of 2022, right?

 

The funny part about deadline ‘22 was that one of the biggest gripes was trading Vaz, and by this hindsight judgment you are now talking about, McGuire far outplayed him over the last 2 months.

 

The “returning vets” theme of the anti-fire sale crowd (sound familiar?) fizzled out, and we got nothing upon nothing.

[notin]

The most frightening scenario of all is that you trade him now and he stays healthy and pitching well the rest of the year (which would only not hurt if the Red Sox finish well out of the playoffs and the loss of Paxton makes no difference). That's Captain Obvious stuff, but it can't be denied.

 

Well, the most frightening scenario is a giant comet crashes into the Earth in early October, eliminating all human life and also cancelling the postseason. But is it the likeliest?

 

I think of Paxton’s arm as a ticking time bomb. And the countdown timer has just entered single digits…

[mvp 78]

The most frightening scenario of all is that you trade him now and he stays healthy and pitching well the rest of the year (which would only not hurt if the Red Sox finish well out of the playoffs and the loss of Paxton makes no difference). That's Captain Obvious stuff, but it can't be denied.

 

How would that be frightening? Frightening would be holding onto him because you are trying to go for it and his arm blowing out the next start.

[mvp 78]

Well, the most frightening scenario is a giant comet crashes into the Earth in early October, eliminating all human life and also cancelling the postseason. But is it the likeliest?

 

I think of Paxton’s arm as a ticking time bomb. And the countdown timer has just entered single digits…

 

I won't have to worry about my retirement? Sounds good to me!

[moonslav59]

How would that be frightening? Frightening would be holding onto him because you are trying to go for it and his arm blowing out the next start.

 

Frightening for 2023, yes. Or, some other major player(s) getting hurt.

[mvp 78]

I want him to stay healthy enough for the Sox to offer him a QO and for him to turn it down.

[Nick]

I want him to stay healthy enough for the Sox to offer him a QO and for him to turn it down.

 

Unlike last year our compensation pick would be higher if declines.

 

More and more I think about it why just not hang on to him?

[mvp 78]

Unlike last year our compensation pick would be higher if declines.

 

More and more I think about it why just not hang on to him?

 

The return at the deadline probably wouldn't be better than a comp pick.