A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Unlike last year our compensation pick would be higher if declines.

 

More and more I think about it why just not hang on to him?

 

A return in trade would likely be a higher value than the comp pick, but by how much?

 

That difference might be part of the decision making process.

 

Unlike last year, I do not think we should be sellers.

 

I’d be fine with trading Kike, or maybe Duvall, if the return is right, but not Paxton.

[Bellhorn04]

Kinda like the reverse of 2022, right?

 

The funny part about deadline ‘22 was that one of the biggest gripes was trading Vaz, and by this hindsight judgment you are now talking about, McGuire far outplayed him over the last 2 months.

 

The “returning vets” theme of the anti-fire sale crowd (sound familiar?) fizzled out, and we got nothing upon nothing.

 

You're sure that McGuire outplayed Vaz defensively? Based on what?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, the most frightening scenario is a giant comet crashes into the Earth in early October, eliminating all human life and also cancelling the postseason. But is it the likeliest?

 

I think of Paxton’s arm as a ticking time bomb. And the countdown timer has just entered single digits…

 

You're the most pessimistic person about injuries I've ever met.

[Bellhorn04]

How would that be frightening? Frightening would be holding onto him because you are trying to go for it and his arm blowing out the next start.

 

It can be both.

[Maxbialystock]

Lengthy but helpful discussion on Paxton if only because several have chimed in. The choices are keep him to the end of this season when he becomes a free agent, or trade him o/a July 31 in return, one assumes, for prospects and the future.

 

To be honest, I think you can argue both sides.

 

For keeping him. The Sox have a real shot at the postseason because they are 6 games above .500 with Schreiber back for tonight's game and Story due back probably in early August. If he can still hit--and that does remain to be seen--Story can make a real difference because then the Sox will potentially have four good bats in the infield--Devers, Story, Turner (yes, Turner), and Casas--as well as three in the outfield (three of Yoshida, Duran, Duvall, Dugo, and Refsnyder) and at DH.

 

If the Sox did not already have Paxton, he would be exactly the guy they should go after o/a July 31. Why? Because they are starting pitching poor, and Paxton is a real difference-maker, exactly what is needed.

 

On the other hand, for somewhat similar reasons, there are bound to be other teams who are just as desperate for a good starter for the last two months of the season. So the question is, what are they willing to give up in the way of prospects? Bloom would be dumb not to at least listen to any offers being made.

 

But in the end I agree with those who say to keep Paxton. I don't see a World Series this year, but I do see a wild card--and, after that, who knows?

 

Moonslav has already argued Bloom should go after two decent starters so that the Sox rotation would include them plus Paxton, Bello, and Sale. Then the bullpen would be outrageously deep with four long relievers (Whitlock, Houck, Pivetta, and Crawford) and four good short men (Jansen, Martin, Winck, and Bernardi).

 

I don't think Bloom will get those two starters, but the point is made. The one real risk I can see to keeping Paxton is that he gets injured and/or Story can't hit (or gets re-injured), etc. But where is there a MLB team that doesn't incur the same risks?

[Bellhorn04]

The one real risk I can see to keeping Paxton is that he gets injured and/or Story can't hit (or gets re-injured), etc. But where is there a MLB team that doesn't incur the same risks?

 

Yes, assuming the 2023 Sox have a legit shot at the playoffs, keeping Paxton and trading Paxton are both risky. And I agree with the last part 100%.

[moonslav59]

You're sure that McGuire outplayed Vaz defensively? Based on what?

 

I’m saying overall, he did.

 

Vaz sucked on O and was never good on D or CERA things.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m saying overall, he did.

 

Vaz sucked on O and was never good on D or CERA things.

 

Very scientific.

[mvp 78]

Yes, assuming the 2023 Sox have a legit shot at the playoffs, keeping Paxton and trading Paxton are both risky. And I agree with the last part 100%.

 

If they have a legit shot at the playoffs, why trade Paxton? You need to roll the dice and hope he stays healthy.

[Bellhorn04]

Vaz's defensive value per FanGraphs is actually oustanding, much higher than I would have guessed - 122.4 Runs Above Replacement for his career.

[Bellhorn04]

If they have a legit shot at the playoffs, why trade Paxton? You need to roll the dice and hope he stays healthy.

 

Exactly.

[Duran Is The Man]

With Paxton, do you really need a crystal ball to know he has an injury coming?

 

The guy has three pitching phases;

 

1.About to get injured

2. Injured

3. Just back from being injured

 

The hope is he stays in 3 and 1 for three more months. But the reality is, phase 2 is always right there…

 

maybe he's kin to Arroyo.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd bet there is a lot of debate in Bloom's war room about Paxton, with hot lines open to all title contenders (not final wild card contenders vying to play maybe only two or three extra games on the road).

 

If Bloom can pry someone's top 10 pitching prospect for Paxton, and then pick up a Rich Hill on the cheap, and if just one of Houck-Whitlock-Sale is good again, and Schreiber is healthy... the Sox might have just as much chance at making the postseason as they do right now.

 

The thing that makes Paxton a better trade chip than even two months of Mookie is that there's no David Albatross Price attached. So maybe, just maybe, someone will be willing to give up a Josiah Gray, instead of a Jeter Downs. If so, Bloom may try it both ways... media and fans be damned.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd bet there is a lot of debate in Bloom's war room about Paxton, with hot lines open to all title contenders (not final wild card contenders vying to play maybe only two or three extra games on the road).

 

If Bloom can pry someone's top 10 pitching prospect for Paxton, and then pick up a Rich Hill on the cheap, and if just one of Houck-Whitlock-Sale is good again, and Schreiber is healthy... the Sox might have just as much chance at making the postseason as they do right now.

 

The thing that makes Paxton a better trade chip than even two months of Mookie is that there's no David Albatross Price attached. So maybe, just maybe, someone will be willing to give up a Josiah Gray, instead of a Jeter Downs. If so, Bloom may try it both ways... media and fans be damned.

 

Way too many ifs.

[dgalehouse]

Christian Vazquez is an old school catcher from the Molina school of catching. You have to watch him play every day to appreciate the positive effect he has on a game and on the team in general. Nothing against Reese McGuire , but he is not in the same class as Vaz.

[mvp 78]

I'd bet there is a lot of debate in Bloom's war room about Paxton, with hot lines open to all title contenders (not final wild card contenders vying to play maybe only two or three extra games on the road).

If Bloom can pry someone's top 10 pitching prospect for Paxton, and then pick up a Rich Hill on the cheap, and if just one of Houck-Whitlock-Sale is good again, and Schreiber is healthy... the Sox might have just as much chance at making the postseason as they do right now.

 

The thing that makes Paxton a better trade chip than even two months of Mookie is that there's no David Albatross Price attached. So maybe, just maybe, someone will be willing to give up a Josiah Gray, instead of a Jeter Downs. If so, Bloom may try it both ways... media and fans be damned.

 

So just keep Paxton then?

[Dipre]

They are gambling on Paxton either way. If they are going to sell, trade him, if they want to go for it, keep him. I don't think the argument can be made that this team is better without Paxton in its rotation, regardless of the injury caveats.

[moonslav59]

Very scientific.

 

Thanks!

 

☝️

[moonslav59]

Christian Vazquez is an old school catcher from the Molina school of catching. You have to watch him play every day to appreciate the positive effect he has on a game and on the team in general. Nothing against Reese McGuire , but he is not in the same class as Vaz.

 

Let’s just ignore that most pitchers did better with Plawecki and Leon.

[Dipre]

Let’s just ignore that most pitchers did better with Plawecki and Leon.

 

CEra sucks.

[moonslav59]

They are gambling on Paxton either way. If they are going to sell, trade him, if they want to go for it, keep him. I don't think the argument can be made that this team is better without Paxton in its rotation, regardless of the injury caveats.

 

Very true, but Paxton helped get us here.

 

I’d add to the rotation, but if we don’t, I can see why one might think we have little chance at top glory and should trade him.

 

I hope we add Stroman and Snell. If we add nobody, I might end up wishing we had sold on Paxton.

 

I know, sounds pretty wishy washy but I hate this halfway crap.

[moonslav59]

CEra sucks.

 

Year after year is not luck.

[Larry Cook]

Let’s just ignore that most pitchers did better with Plawecki and Leon.

 

I like wong’s receiving skills!!! Has it been perfect, no! But I like what I see!

 

This kid has won me over!!!!!

 

Wong and scott behind the plate and I am good

[Bellhorn04]

Let’s just ignore that most pitchers did better with Plawecki and Leon.

 

Have you ever checked Vaz's defensive numbers on FanGraphs?

[Bellhorn04]

Year after year is not luck.

 

Some of those differences were not large.

[moonslav59]

Some of those differences were not large.

 

Some were huge, year after year. Others were moderate. Others were small, but almost all went the other way with the major SPers.

 

Sale

Price

Nate

Porcello

 

I think ERod was the only one close, out of all the major SPers.

[moonslav59]

Have you ever checked Vaz's defensive numbers on FanGraphs?

 

Yes. They had him as a net -0.1 with HOU after the trade.

 

I have never said he was poor in the areas they measure.

He was a plus hitter compared to most catchers, more times than not.

I think he was a net plus and never argued to replace, bench or trade him.

 

I criticise one aspect of his skill set, and that it it. I happen to think it knocks him down a peg or two from where many Sox fans seem to have him, but he was a plus for us.

 

He seemed to have alternating very good years with okay to meh years.

 

He was getting older.

 

No slight on our ex Sox players, but I’m glad we have Wong over Vaz and McGuire over Plawecki.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. They had him as a net -0.1 with HOU after the trade.

 

I have never said he was poor in the areas they measure.

He was a plus hitter compared to most catchers, more times than not.

I think he was a net plus and never argued to replace, bench or trade him.

 

I criticise one aspect of his skill set, and that it it. I happen to think it knocks him down a peg or two from where many Sox fans seem to have him, but he was a plus for us.

 

He seemed to have alternating very good years with okay to meh years.

 

He was getting older.

 

No slight on our ex Sox players, but I’m glad we have Wong over Vaz and McGuire over Plawecki.

 

Fair enough on Vaz. Wong has been tremendous. I'm still not a McGuire fan.

[moonslav59]

Fair enough on Vaz. Wong has been tremendous. I'm still not a McGuire fan.

 

The jury is out on McGuire, but he did better than Vaz over the last 2 months in ‘22, and IMO, he has more future upside and will cost way less.

[Bellhorn04]

The jury is out on McGuire, but he did better than Vaz over the last 2 months in ‘22, and IMO, he has more future upside and will cost way less.

 

McGuire's .877 OPS with the Sox last year was not the real thing. This year's .665 is the real thing. And I still get the creeps from his CERA. I know it's small samples and all, but still, 6.33 and 5.42...it's like the guy has a black cloud over him when he catches for us. I wonder if he's easy to steal our signs off or something.