A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

We are on separate pages.

 

So you're saying that if we trade a player and fans complain about it, but the guy absolutely sucks for his new team, fans will keep complaining just as much? Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying, I don't know.

[Bellhorn04]

Isn't predicting when a player will get injured bad juju?

 

Or is it bad juju to predict he'll stay healthy all year?

[mvp 78]

Or is it bad juju to predict he'll stay healthy all year?

 

No?

[Bellhorn04]

No?

 

Guess I need a juju refresher.

[moonslav59]

So you're saying that if we trade a player and fans complain about it, but the guy absolutely sucks for his new team, fans will keep complaining just as much? Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying, I don't know.

 

The team sucked after the Vaz trade, so fans would have been pissed no matter how well or poorly Vaz and McGuire did. Didn’t hear much about it after we dropped out of contention and Vaz sucked with HOU, and RM did well for a few weeks.

 

Let’s move on.

[notin]

Isn't predicting when a player will get injured bad juju?

 

I don’t believe in juju. It messes up my karma…

[Dojji]

The team sucked after the Vaz trade, so fans would have been pissed no matter how well or poorly Vaz and McGuire did. Didn’t hear much about it after we dropped out of contention and Vaz sucked with HOU, and RM did well for a few weeks.

 

Let’s move on.

 

I didn't like the Vaz trade eihther but it's clear that the team saw something we didn't. In his prime Vazquez was an elite catcher they moved him at the right time. especially since it got Connor Wong a chance to show us what he can do. Wong has been a very pleasant surprise for me, I didn't see him coming at all which is why I was a skeptic of the Vaz trade in the first place. Now that I know what Wong is, and he looks like a competent starting catcher, I take back most of what I said about that trade at the time. He was ready. I just didn't know that.

 

BTW I enjoy Wong's interesting framing technique. He sets up with his glove way outside the zone, then pulls it back in, drawing the umpire's eye in towards the strike zone. I never thought of that before but it's an interesting technique if you can trust your pitcher to know your actual spot without telegraphing it with the glove.

[Bellhorn04]

The team sucked after the Vaz trade, so fans would have been pissed no matter how well or poorly Vaz and McGuire did. Didn’t hear much about it after we dropped out of contention and Vaz sucked with HOU, and RM did well for a few weeks.

 

Let’s move on.

 

OK, you're just talking about the 2022 example.

[mvp 78]

I don’t believe in juju. It messes up my karma…

 

Your karma ran over bell's dogma, its name was juju?

[Maxbialystock]

Modern baseball management results in some very strange decisions. People complain about Cora resting guys, but the Rangers just made the remarkable decision to skip Eovaldi's latest start to give him extra rest, and of all games to do it, they chose the first game of a series with the Astros, their main division rival. And they lost the game 10-9.

 

Sox fans would never forgive Cora for that kind of decision.

 

Actually, Cora's doing that right now. The standard rest between starts is 5 days. Bello's last start was July 19, so tonight he is going on 7 days rest. He started on 14 July, so 19 July was the standard 5 days. The last three starts before the ASG were July 5, June 29 (6 days), and June 23 (6 days). And so on.

 

I checked Paxton's game log, and found 2 starts out of 12 with just 5 days rest.

 

Crawford, on the other hand, has had mostly 5 days rest between starts.

 

I think of Verlander as a horse, but even he gets a lot of 6 days breaks between starts.

 

The Sox started the season with 8 starters--Kluber, Paxton, Sale, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Pivetta, and Bello--although not all were healthy or even in Boston. Right now 4 of the 8 are on the IL. So resting starters more would seem to make sense.

[Maxbialystock]

So you're saying that if we trade a player and fans complain about it, but the guy absolutely sucks for his new team, fans will keep complaining just as much? Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying, I don't know.

 

I was happy to see Vazquez go. I would not be happy to see Paxton go unless what Bloom got back were high value prospects.

 

To me this year's Sox are definitely better than last year's, especially given the massive injuries to the rotation, Story, et al. Duran and Casas have come on. Yoshida was a terrific acquisition, and I'd definitely rather have Turner than JDM. Wong has been excellent. Duvall has only been OK. Dugo may or may not be fading after a terrific start. If Story and Sale return to their better selves in August, the Sox will be tough. Bullpen is way better than last year, but the defense is subpar.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, Cora's doing that right now.

 

Not quite the same thing. Eovaldi is having one of his starts completely skipped.

[mvp 78]

Not quite the same thing. Eovaldi is having one of his starts completely skipped.

 

@McFarland_Shawn

The Rangers will skip Nathan Eovaldi's start vs. Houston. His velo has been down in 4 of his last 5 starts, though Bochy said a rest day was pre-set.

 

His FB (-2.4 mph), cutter (-1.9 mph) and curveball (-1.6 mph) were slower in his last start vs. TB.

[Maxbialystock]

I didn't like the Vaz trade eihther but it's clear that the team saw something we didn't. In his prime Vazquez was an elite catcher they moved him at the right time. especially since it got Connor Wong a chance to show us what he can do. Wong has been a very pleasant surprise for me, I didn't see him coming at all which is why I was a skeptic of the Vaz trade in the first place. Now that I know what Wong is, and he looks like a competent starting catcher, I take back most of what I said about that trade at the time. He was ready. I just didn't know that.

 

BTW I enjoy Wong's interesting framing technique. He sets up with his glove way outside the zone, then pulls it back in, drawing the umpire's eye in towards the strike zone. I never thought of that before but it's an interesting technique if you can trust your pitcher to know your actual spot without telegraphing it with the glove.

 

Good stuff on Wong, especially his framing technique. Thanks.

 

I liked Vazquez in his early years and with that incredible arm and release. Later, not so much, for 2 reasons: 1) CERA, which I believe; 2) his stupid base-running. So last year I was fine with letting him go.

 

Like you, I knew nothing about Wong. He doesn't have as good an arm as Vazquez, but he has a much better brain.

[Dipre]

CEra is terrible.

[Bellhorn04]

CEra is terrible.

 

McGuire's definitely is.

[mvp 78]

CEra is terrible.

 

CERA is only valuable if it's promoting the argument you are for.

[Dipre]

CERA is only valuable if it's promoting the argument you are for.

 

It's SSS central and doesn't account for a number of factors. It's bad, and everyone who quotes it should feel bad.

[Bellhorn04]

It's SSS central and doesn't account for a number of factors. It's bad, and everyone who quotes it should feel bad.

 

But still, 6.33 and 5.42.

[Nick]

It's hard to be mad when this year

 

We found future CF in Duran

We found/cemented 1B in Casas

We found future C in Wong

We found future bat in Yoshida

 

We found future ace in Bello

 

We rid of Kike

We rid of Brasier (I don't care if he's a Cy Younger, he couldn't do it in Boston)

 

It's all about collecting the core group EARLY.

 

Am I going to be upset we don't make the playoffs?

 

Hell no.

[Duran Is The Man]

CEra is terrible.

 

i agree. how the f*** is it the catcher's fault that the pitcher sucks?

[Bellhorn04]

i agree. how the f*** is it the catcher's fault that the pitcher sucks?

 

It's not. But there are many ways in which the catcher can make a difference.

[Duran Is The Man]

It's not. But there are many ways in which the catcher can make a difference.

 

absolutely. but using CERA is not the right way to quantify that difference.

[Bellhorn04]

absolutely. but using CERA is not the right way to quantify that difference.

 

It's just a number. I keep bringing up McGuire's numbers with the Sox only because they are so staggeringly bad that maybe, just maybe, there's an issue he has had catching our staff. But if the team keeps playing him that indicates they think differently.

 

I don't think there's much doubt that Wong has clearly established himself to be the superior catcher. And they started giving him the lion's share of the starts pretty early in the season.

[Duran Is The Man]

It's just a number. I keep bringing up McGuire's numbers with the Sox only because they are so staggeringly bad that maybe, just maybe, there's an issue he has had catching our staff. But if the team keeps playing him that indicates they think differently.

 

I don't think there's much doubt that Wong has clearly established himself to be the superior catcher. And they started giving him the lion's share of the starts pretty early in the season.

 

i agree with all of that. my point was that i believe CERA is just total BS.

[Bellhorn04]

i agree with all of that. my point was that i believe CERA is just total BS.

 

But why though?

[Duran Is The Man]

But why though?

 

because i think you're right.

 

no, i just don't see how it's the catcher's fault you've got a s***** pitcher on the mound. they can call a game but have no control over a pitcher's control, or lack thereof.

[Maxbialystock]

i agree with all of that. my point was that i believe CERA is just total BS.

 

Well, it's certainly a controversial stat/topic, so you are entitled to that opinion.

 

But that leads me to two contrarian points.

 

First and foremost, it is hard for me to believe all catchers are basically equal in working with pitchers. You have to say that if you think CERA is bs.

 

And my second point is strongly related. Who do you think the pitchers on the Sox prefer catching them--Wong or McGuire or Alfaro? Or, best of all, behind door #4: they just don't care because catchers are irrelevant to how well a pitcher pitches.

[moonslav59]

It's not. But there are many ways in which the catcher can make a difference.

 

Indeed, not just CS%, framing and blocking skills and hitting.

[Dojji]

or like punching a runner out and making base stealers think twice like Connor Wong just did.