A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

He also colored in his sock with a red sharpie per another catcher on the Sox. Very untrustworthy source!

 

That's an excellent way to end this absurd discussion.

[mvp 78]

That's an excellent way to end this absurd discussion.

 

I figured. We weren't going to get anywhere with it.

[Maxbialystock]

New/old topic, the schedule.

 

Starting August 4, which is next week, the Sox play 48 games with just two days off. That is a slog.

 

It's also the direct opposite of the lazy days of July during which the Sox have had many days off and a record of 14-5, the best in MLB. All that ends next week.

 

Well, not right away, of course. In fact, the Sox will have had another day off, August 3, before a 10 game homestand: 3 vs the Jays; 4 vs. the lowly Royals; and 3 vs. Detroit. Then come 3 vs. the lowly Nats in DC. So, depending on whether Bloom picks up another decent starter in the next 3 days, the Sox could go 9-4 in those first 13 games.

 

But by then, especially with this heat, the players, especially the pitchers, should be getting tired, just when they face the Yankees for 3 in NYC, the Astros for 4 in Houston, the Dodgers for 3 back in Boston, and the Astros for 3 in Boston. The Sox could easily go 4-9 in those 13 games.

 

And so on. The last two months of this season are both a great opportunity and a real grind for the players. They will be tested, including nineteen September games against AL East teams.

[mvp 78]

They have 2 series left with each AL East team. This is their chance to make a move in the division. With reduced divisional play, we've seen more stagnant standings.

[moonslav59]

New/old topic, the schedule.

 

Starting August 4, which is next week, the Sox play 48 games with just two days off. That is a slog.

 

It's also the direct opposite of the lazy days of July during which the Sox have had many days off and a record of 14-5, the best in MLB. All that ends next week.

 

Well, not right away, of course. In fact, the Sox will have had another day off, August 3, before a 10 game homestand: 3 vs the Jays; 4 vs. the lowly Royals; and 3 vs. Detroit. Then come 3 vs. the lowly Nats in DC. So, depending on whether Bloom picks up another decent starter in the next 3 days, the Sox could go 9-4 in those first 13 games.

 

But by then, especially with this heat, the players, especially the pitchers, should be getting tired, just when they face the Yankees for 3 in NYC, the Astros for 4 in Houston, the Dodgers for 3 back in Boston, and the Astros for 3 in Boston. The Sox could easily go 4-9 in those 13 games.

 

And so on. The last two months of this season are both a great opportunity and a real grind for the players. They will be tested, including nineteen September games against AL East teams.

 

It’s a good thing we should be getting guys off the IL in mid August.

 

I expect we will be sending pitchers up and down from the farm over this time frame, too.

 

We have had great depth this year, so when we get guys back, we should be fine.

[moonslav59]

They have 2 series left with each AL East team. This is their chance to make a move in the division. With reduced divisional play, we've seen more stagnant standings.

 

It’s been rather frustrating to see us play do well and barely gain on those ahead of us.

 

That sweep of TOR was huge. Let’s hope we can keep winning when we play our division foes.

 

[mvp 78]

It’s a good thing we should be getting guys off the IL in mid August.

 

I expect we will be sending pitchers up and down from the farm over this time frame, too.

 

We have had great depth this year, so when we get guys back, we should be fine.

 

The depth can't be that good if they are still throwing Joe Jacques out there.

[moonslav59]

The depth can't be that good if they are still throwing Joe Jacques out there.

 

It’s been great.

 

You can choose to focus on the few struggling player, as you wish.

 

Anyway, Jacques should be demoted, soon.

[Maxbialystock]

It’s a good thing we should be getting guys off the IL in mid August.

 

I expect we will be sending pitchers up and down from the farm over this time frame, too.

 

We have had great depth this year, so when we get guys back, we should be fine.

 

All due respect, but this time I think you are glossing over two key facts: 1) pitching is almost always better (by any team) when off days are inserted, which we normally see every postseason; 2) the Sox do not have pitching depth, period, and have unquestionably relied on off days to get them through July.

 

As for guys coming off the IL, I agree Story will help, as will McGuire (who could quickly re-injure himself since the current injury was caused by simply swinging a freaking bat).

 

But please don't try to sell me on Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, and Houck. Kluber's useless, which he is currently reminding us of. Houck and Whitlock will be lucky to return before September, plus both are better suited for the bullpen where they may or may not be effective as long relievers. I do not see either of them as an effective starter this season.

 

Right now Sale seems to a good bet to return in August, which is great. However, every time he pitches these days Cora has to worry whether he will get Good Sale (who can be very good) of Not So Good Sale (who can be just plain lousy). Plus Sale is injury-prone. This year, his best since 2019, he lasted just 11 games before his shoulder went bad and has kept him out for 2 freaking months.

 

As for rotating guys back and forth from Worcester, my understanding is that there are no good arms in Worcester, but plenty of guys who can give you a really bad inning at the MLB level.

 

I hate being a pessimist, so please explain in detail how great the pitching is going to be during those 48 games with 2 days off.

[moonslav59]

All due respect, but this time I think you are glossing over two key facts: 1) pitching is almost always better (by any team) when off days are inserted, which we normally see every postseason; 2) the Sox do not have pitching depth, period, and have unquestionably relied on off days to get them through July.

 

As for guys coming off the IL, I agree Story will help, as will McGuire (who could quickly re-injure himself since the current injury was caused by simply swinging a freaking bat).

 

But please don't try to sell me on Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, and Houck. Kluber's useless, which he is currently reminding us of. Houck and Whitlock will be lucky to return before September, plus both are better suited for the bullpen where they may or may not be effective as long relievers. I do not see either of them as an effective starter this season.

 

Right now Sale seems to a good bet to return in August, which is great. However, every time he pitches these days Cora has to worry whether he will get Good Sale (who can be very good) of Not So Good Sale (who can be just plain lousy). Plus Sale is injury-prone. This year, his best since 2019, he lasted just 11 games before his shoulder went bad and has kept him out for 2 freaking months.

 

As for rotating guys back and forth from Worcester, my understanding is that there are no good arms in Worcester, but plenty of guys who can give you a really bad inning at the MLB level.

 

I hate being a pessimist, so please explain in detail how great the pitching is going to be during those 48 games with 2 days off.

 

I won’t try to sell you, then, but I am 100% confident we will see some significant advantage from Whitlock, Houck, Sale and or Schreiber.

 

I’m also pretty sure we add a pitcher, so I am confident out returning players will restore the players doing great now back to the depth that has kept us in this race.

[moonslav59]

Yanks playing BAL

TBR playing HOU

TOR playing LAA

TEX playing SDP

 

SFG is no pushover, but we have a sure chance of gaining on someone, if we just keep winning.

[Nick]

ESPN announcers kept talking about Casa should move up in the lineup.

 

It happens tonight.

 

Masslive wrote frequently about trading Kike. They clearly saw what was happening. Something Cora refused to admit.

 

Masslive now thinks Verdugo is expendable. Reason? They think this is his ceiling.

They might be right.

[Maxbialystock]

ESPN announcers kept talking about Casa should move up in the lineup.

 

It happens tonight.

 

Masslive wrote frequently about trading Kike. They clearly saw what was happening. Something Cora refused to admit.

 

Masslive now thinks Verdugo is expendable. Reason? They think this is his ceiling.

They might be right.

 

Casas is batting 6th tonight. A good bat can do a lot of damage in the 6 slot.

 

Cora has no reason to tell (or admit) jack to masslive. The Dodgers, a big money team that leads in the NL West, is using Kike exactly the same way Cora did and for the same reason.

 

I disagree with masslive about Verdugo, but don't know any more than you do. I think it's just a slump and temporary, but I could be wrong. His defense is still good, however.

[moonslav59]

For all we know, Casas, Duran and Bello may have topped out, too.

 

I would not break up this group. They have gelled, nicely.

 

Add a decent SPer and call it a day.

[moonslav59]

We gained on NYY, HOU and TEX

Stayed even with BAL, TBR & TOR.

 

WC Standings

 

TBR +4.0

HOU --- (-2.5 ALC)

TOR ---

BOS -1.5 (-7.0 ALE)

NYY -3.5

LAA -4.0

SEA -4.5

CLE -6.0

 

 

[Nick]

For all we know, Casas, Duran and Bello may have topped out, too.

 

I would not break up this group. They have gelled, nicely.

 

Add a decent SPer and call it a day.

You keep talking about adding a decent pitcher.

 

The whole point of the article was about trading Verdugo for a pitcher knowing you have Duvall to play RF.

 

If you think Bello has receached his ceiling then I say really?

 

He is nowhere close to his ceiling.

[Nick]

Casas is batting 6th tonight. A good bat can do a lot of damage in the 6 slot.

 

Cora has no reason to tell (or admit) jack to masslive. The Dodgers, a big money team that leads in the NL West, is using Kike exactly the same way Cora did and for the same reason.

 

I disagree with masslive about Verdugo, but don't know any more than you do. I think it's just a slump and temporary, but I could be wrong. His defense is still good, however.

Kike is NOT playing short for LA. Playing Kike after after announcing he would not play short was troubling shoeed his bias.

 

Yeah the whole planet is wrong except for Cora when it came to Kike.

 

I'm for one enjoying watching the Sox play without Kike.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Kike is NOT playing short for LA. Playing Kike after after announcing he would not play short was troubling shoeed his bias.

 

Yeah the whole planet is wrong except for Cora when it came to Kike.

 

I'm for one enjoying watching the Sox play without Kike.

 

Aside from too many starts by Kike at SS, Cora is doing a brilliant job this season IMHO. How the hell does a team with a busted rotation go 16-5 against mostly good teams? That is some good management, baby.

[notin]

Aside from too many starts by Kike at SS, Cora is doing a brilliant job this season IMHO. How the hell does a team with a busted rotation go 16-5 against mostly good teams? That is some good management, baby.

 

So you’re not sold on the GM, whose job does include predicting the future? But you’re completely sold on Cora, who Kike/SS situation showed he struggles to recall the recent past?

[Bellhorn04]

So you’re not sold on the GM, whose job does include predicting the future? But you’re completely sold on Cora, who Kike/SS situation showed he struggles to recall the recent past?

 

Bloom signed Kike. Twice. Bloom did not sign a stopgap SS and left the door open for Kike at SS. Cora is a player's manager who gives players more than fair opportunities to play, even when they're struggling. In this case he went with Kike too long. I'd be willing to bet that he talked with Bloom a lot about the situation and Bloom was on board.

 

That approach of being "extra patient" pays off a lot too, IMHO.

[moonslav59]

You keep talking about adding a decent pitcher.

 

The whole point of the article was about trading Verdugo for a pitcher knowing you have Duvall to play RF.

 

If you think Bello has receached his ceiling then I say really?

 

He is nowhere close to his ceiling.

 

My point was we never can know when someone's value has peaked, NOT that I think any of those I mentioned have peaked.

[Bellhorn04]

My point was we never can know when someone's value has peaked, NOT that I think any of those I mentioned have peaked.

 

Warren Buffett has always said no one can time the market. I think that principle applies to baseball players equally well.

[notin]

My point was we never can know when someone's value has peaked, NOT that I think any of those I mentioned have peaked.

 

No but the point in moving Verdugo does make sense in some ways.

 

1. Adam Duvall is reclaiming a lineup spot.

2. Turner isn’t the full time solution at 2b.

3. Verdugo has 1.3 years left until free agency

4. The Sox do have Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu for next year.

[moonslav59]

Aside from too many starts by Kike at SS, Cora is doing a brilliant job this season IMHO. How the hell does a team with a busted rotation go 16-5 against mostly good teams? That is some good management, baby.

 

We are also 5th in runs scored while being 8th in OWAR and wRC+.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Verdugo being ice cold with the stick has to be depressing his present value a bit.

[Bellhorn04]

We are also 5th in runs scored while being 8th in OWAR and wRC+.

 

 

He's a maestro.

[notin]

Verdugo being ice cold with the stick has to be depressing his present value a bit.

 

That might be a reason to hold him beach, too.

 

But slump aside, his 1.3 years of control is the selling point…

[moonslav59]

No but the point in moving Verdugo does make sense in some ways.

 

1. Adam Duvall is reclaiming a lineup spot.

2. Turner isn’t the full time solution at 2b.

3. Verdugo has 1.3 years left until free agency

4. The Sox do have Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu for next year.

 

I have never said it makes zero sense.

 

I've been higher on Duvall than just about everyone.

 

I do think we maybe buy and sell and have depth in the OF that supports the idea of trading an OF'er. The ones that make the most 'sense' are Duvall and Dugo.

 

Dugo brings back more due to the extra year of control. That extra year has value to us, too, as Duvall bolts.

[Bellhorn04]

That might be a reason to hold him beach, too.

 

But slump aside, his 1.3 years of control is the selling point…

 

I do agree that trading Verdugo makes some sense. But I'm of the opinion that Bloom will be looking to add, not subtract. This is much more like the 21 deadline than the 22 deadline.

[moonslav59]

I do agree that trading Verdugo makes some sense. But I'm of the opinion that Bloom will be looking to add, not subtract. This is much more like the 21 deadline than the 22 deadline.

 

Many trades are based on areas of depth.

 

It seems shocking, after last year's awful OF production, it is now one of our biggest and deepest areas of strength.

 

To a team like the Sox, the 2023 team might barely notice a "step down" from Dugo to Duvall/Refsnyder or from Duvall to Refsnyder and having to play a lefty OF'er vs a LHP more often. That is often the foundation of a trade.

 

We seem to r.eally want to hold any and all promising prospects, so I can see Bloom working out a 3 way trade involving Dugo or Duvall.

 

The player we get back, would in theory be a bigger step up at a position of higher need than any step down we may see in the OF.

 

For all we know, trading Dugo might allow Duvall and Ref to play more and do better than Dugo would have done. It's hard to know.

 

For the record, I would prefer seeing Dugo inn a Sox uniform for the next 1.3 years but show me the deal.