A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

About the only thing to grumble about at this point is Eovaldi/Kluber.

[mvp 78]

About the only thing to grumble about at this point is Eovaldi/Kluber.

 

When Story comes back he should play 2B not SS.

 

Just to jump the gun a little on a future argument...

[moonslav59]

About the only thing to grumble about at this point is Eovaldi/Kluber.

 

It would have had to have been Nate or Kluber + Duvall (or Martin).

 

It was more like Wacha v Kluber or Eflin v Kluber.

[moonslav59]

When Story comes back he should play 2B not SS.

 

Just to jump the gun a little on a future argument...

 

I agree. I'd stick with Chang at SS.

 

Maybe they try Story at SS and Turner at 2B.

[notin]

When Story comes back he should play 2B not SS.

 

Just to jump the gun a little on a future argument...

 

I’m ok with that. Not like Kike is making a strong case to keep starting…

[moonslav59]

I’m ok with that. Not like Kike is making a strong case to keep starting…

 

I think the choice is:

 

SS Story and 2B Arroyo (Kike v LHPs)

 

SS Chang and 2B Story (trade Duvall, Kike or Arroyo, because I'd still want Chang on the 26.)

[mvp 78]

I’m ok with that. Not like Kike is making a strong case to keep starting…

 

I like what Yu Chang has done at SS, so I'd just leave him there. I like what Story did last year at 2B. It makes for a much better defensive alignment than they've thrown out there at times this year (Kiké & Valdez).

[moonslav59]

Injury Updates:

 

Big news: Story is scheduled to play 5 innings at SS on Friday, DH on Saturday and SS on Sunday. The rehab stint may last about 20 days (Aug 10th?) Cora says they will not rush him.

 

Schreiber is scheduled to pitch back to back rehab games July 19-20 and may return between July 23-25. Cora said he may get called up before those back-to-back games.

 

Sale felt good after mound throwing session, yesterday. It's unknown when he starts a game in the minors or returns. My guess is AUG 10-15, at the earliest.

 

Reyes is lighting up the minors while rehabbing. He could be called up at any moment. He's out of options, so who goes? (Duvall or Kike trade?)

 

Houck started throwing July 11th. He is expected to throw from the mound on July 25th. Cora says he "feels good." I'm guessing early to mid AUG.

 

Whitlock has started playing catch. His return in unknown.

 

McGuire is supposed to start rehabbing around July 25th, so it could be mid AUG for him.

 

Kluber? I barely care, but who knows? Maybe he has something left in the tank.

 

I'm not counting on anything from Mondesi, Kelly or Mills.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Injury Updates:

 

Big news: Story is scheduled to play 5 innings at SS on Friday, DH on Saturday and SS on Sunday. The rehab stint may last about 20 days (Aug 10th?) Cora says they will not rush him.

 

Schreiber is scheduled to pitch back to back rehab games July 19-20 and may return between July 23-25. Cora said he may get called up before those back-to-back games.

 

Sale felt good after mound throwing session, yesterday. It's unknown when he starts a game in the minors or returns. My guess is AUG 10-15, at the earliest.

 

Reyes is lighting up the minors while rehabbing. He could be called up at any moment. He's out of options, so who goes? (Duvall or Kike trade?)

 

Houck started throwing July 11th. He is expected to throw from the mound on July 25th. Cora says he "feels good." I'm guessing early to mid AUG.

 

Whitlock has started playing catch. His return in unknown.

 

McGuire is supposed to start rehabbing around July 25th, so it could be mid AUG for him.

 

Kluber? I barely care, but who knows? Maybe he has something left in the tank.

 

I'm not counting on anything from Mondesi, Kelly or Mills.

 

 

A somewhat encouraging report.

[moonslav59]

A somewhat encouraging report.

 

I had hopes that Houck or Whitlock would be back earlier, but this could work out well.

 

When you look at how well this team is playing, and you figure we have 4 of our original SPers and 3rd best RPer returning, plus your best defensive infielder who might also be our 3rd or 4th best hitter all returning in maybe 2-4 weeks, there seems to be reason for raising expectations.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I had hopes that Houck or Whitlock would be back earlier, but this could work out well.

 

When you look at how well this team is playing, and you figure we have 4 of our original SPers and 3rd best RPer returning, plus your best defensive infielder who might also be our 3rd or 4th best hitter all returning in maybe 2-4 weeks, there seems to be reason for raising expectations.

 

No disrespect, but when I read this, I thought this could also be Bloom's excuse for lowering expectations (players' and fans') of acquiring any impact at the deadline.

 

Many summers we've heard a GM or manager muse, "Getting X (fill in name) back from the IL is just as good as anyone else we could trade for that's available."

 

The debate of buy or sell could be settled on what happens in the next five games in Fenway -- 3 with the Mets, 2 vs. Atlanta -- and it should be noted that Tuesday's promotion is Alex Verdugo Cooling Headband night...

[mvp 78]

No disrespect, but when I read this, I thought this could also be Bloom's excuse for lowering expectations (players' and fans') of acquiring any impact at the deadline.

 

Many summers we've heard a GM or manager muse, "Getting X (fill in name) back from the IL is just as good as anyone else we could trade for that's available."

 

The debate of buy or sell could be settled on what happens in the next five games in Fenway -- 3 with the Mets, 2 vs. Atlanta -- and it should be noted that Tuesday's promotion is Alex Verdugo Cooling Headband night...

 

100% agree. Waiting on an injured guy to come back is generally a fool's errand. We can't expect Sale or Whitlock to be able to pitch at 100%. We don't know if Houck turns into Matt Clement. Story probably is an upgrade, but we can't expect his bat to be ready for the middle of the order. He had a substantial cold streak last season before he got hot.

[moonslav59]

No disrespect, but when I read this, I thought this could also be Bloom's excuse for lowering expectations (players' and fans') of acquiring any impact at the deadline.

 

Many summers we've heard a GM or manager muse, "Getting X (fill in name) back from the IL is just as good as anyone else we could trade for that's available."

 

The debate of buy or sell could be settled on what happens in the next five games in Fenway -- 3 with the Mets, 2 vs. Atlanta -- and it should be noted that Tuesday's promotion is Alex Verdugo Cooling Headband night...

 

I agree.

 

In terms of counting on returning players, I see it tis way:

 

I'm counting on Schreiber and Reyes, because both are looking good in rehab. I'm not sure how we squeeze Reyes into the 26 with Chang, Kike and Arroyo already in the MI mix and maybe Story coming back in mid August.

 

Maybe I'm overly optimistic on a Story return and positive contribution. Maybe by Sept 1st?

 

I'm not counting on anything from Sale. Been there- done that, too many times. I will only add that before my hopes were two-fold with him:

1) He can come back and pitch for a longer stretch.

2) He can regain most of his previous form.

I do think part 2 was answered in May.

 

Out of Houck and Whitlock, I'm counting on one to come back and do well. I'd love to see both come back to the pen, but we'd need to add a couple starters. (I do worry that they might come back and linger around 4.50-5.50 or worse.)

 

I'm okay with Alfaro, so the McGuire return is not essential.

 

If we feel like we should be buyers, and right now, I think we should be , but without trading top prospects. Acquire 2 decent SP'ers with hopes the pen gets a big boost from returning pitchers.

 

It is hard to imagine a pen "boost," right now, because our pen has been near perfect, of late.

 

I could see us dumping Kike or trading Duvall. Maybe a three way trade with Duvall, where we add a prospect (Walter?), the third team adds a prospect and the other team sends us a decent and reliable SP'er. We may have to trade Paulino and Mata for another decent SP, but more like a 5th starter type.

 

 

[moonslav59]

100% agree. Waiting on an injured guy to come back is generally a fool's errand. We can't expect Sale or Whitlock to be able to pitch at 100%. We don't know if Houck turns into Matt Clement. Story probably is an upgrade, but we can't expect his bat to be ready for the middle of the order. He had a substantial cold streak last season before he got hot.

 

True, but I would not say we should count on nothing.

 

I'm hoping on Story, but I would not trade for a SS with Reyes and Chang healthy.

 

I would not trade for a catcher while waiting on McGuire. I'm fine with Alfaro.

 

The pitching mix is a harder call, and I'd add 2 SP'ers, as a result. When and if some pitchers comeback, I'd try to move Houck and Whitlock to the pen, and f Sale returns, Crawford, too. We might be okay, that way, if none return, except one from Houck, Whitlock, Sale or Schreiber.

Edited July 20, 2023 by moonslav59

[Dipre]

Out of this enormous pile of injured players, merely because of statistical probability, some of them should produce. Can't bat .000 on all injury returns even if we wanted to.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm off to Cape Breton for a few days with the wife. Go Sox.

[Dipre]

I'm off to Cape Breton for a few days with the wife. Go Sox.

 

Your wife is a saint.

[Bellhorn04]

Your wife is a saint.

 

You're right.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

By rule, Pablo Reyes can only spend 20 days on a minor league rehab assignment. He's out of options. That clock expires Sunday. Then Red Sox must make a decision. The off day Monday could bring some news.

 

Who goes?

 

Arroyo - one year left of control, 93 wRC+ since July 1, but hasn't been impressive this year, always injured

Kiké - absolutely horrible on the field at offense and defense, but Cora loves him, contracts ends this year

Chang - best defender at SS, 186 OBP for the year

Reyes - better hitter than Chang, but worse fielder

 

Chang, Reyes and Arroyo have all been replacement level this year. Arroyo has much higher upside than the other two. Kiké deserves to be DFA'd, but I have doubts that Bloom would do that to Cora, unless Cora was ok with its impact on the clubhouse. I think it's most likely that Reyes is just put through waivers. He's a 0.8 fWAR guy in 175 games. He's the type of guy that gets waived all the time and signed as an MiLB FA in the offseason.

[mvp 78]

Out of this enormous pile of injured players, merely because of statistical probability, some of them should produce. Can't bat .000 on all injury returns even if we wanted to.

 

Whitlock will go to the pen and pitch ok.

[notin]

I'm off to Cape Breton for a few days with the wife. Go Sox.

 

I hope she has a good time…

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

Whitlock will go to the pen and pitch ok.

 

Given the Sox determination to make him a starter, I should disagree with you, but I don't.

[mvp 78]

Given the Sox determination to make him a starter, I should disagree with you, but I don't.

 

Coming off another injury, I think he goes back to the pen for the rest of 2023. Should he be a starter in 2024? That's another story. Unlike Houck, he was more likely to be able to pitch 7 innings. Overall results were about the same. His upside is maybe a middle rotation guy, but the ongoing injury concerns push him to the pen for me. I wanted him to be a starter, I just don't think his body can do it.

[Dipre]

Because of durability, I actually think Houck is the more likely of the two to end up a starter if they can either improve his changeup, or work in an average split.

[moonslav59]

Because of durability, I actually think Houck is the more likely of the two to end up a starter if they can either improve his changeup, or work in an average split.

 

With our excellent long relief crew, we no longer have to worry about yanking Houck after 18 batters faced.

[mvp 78]

Because of durability, I actually think Houck is the more likely of the two to end up a starter if they can either improve his changeup, or work in an average split.

 

Even if his repertoire doesn't change, he's probably more likely to stick as a back end starter the manager just pulls after 5.

[notin]

Because of durability, I actually think Houck is the more likely of the two to end up a starter if they can either improve his changeup, or work in an average split.

 

I think too much is made of Houck’s lack of a full compliment of pitches and his struggles third time through the lineup. In today’s age of 8 man bullpens, teams don’t need every starter to go 6-7 innings any more…

Edited July 20, 2023 by notin

[Dipre]

I think too much is made of Houck’s lack of a full compliment of pitches and his struggles third time through the lineup. In today’s age of 8 man bullpens, teams don’t need every starter to go 6-7 innings any more…

 

Not the lack of a full compliment of pitches. It's the lack of an out pitch against lefty batters, who are using him as batting practice to the tune of an .813 OPS.

[moonslav59]

As players start returning from the IL, including maybe 3 from the 60 day, which would create a need to clear a roster slot, we will need to send some players to the minors and trade or DFA others.

 

60 Day IL

Schreiber (may be called within a week)

Story (mid August?)

Sale (mid August, if at all?)

 

IL

Reyes (is ready, now. His rehab time expires very soon.)

Houck (early/mid August?)

Whitlock (mid August?)

Kluber (not sure anyone cares)

McGuire (August?)

 

My Ordered DFA/Trade list:

1. Ort (2 options remaining)

2. Garza (3 options remaining)

3. Jacques (3)

4. Alfaro (0) only when McGuire is activated

5. Kluber (0) He might be 1 or 2 on my list, but maybe he can get one more chance to show he can be a plus.

6. Bleier (0)

7. Duvall (0) Trade Only

8. Kike (0- last year of control) or Arroyo (0- 1 more arb year)

9. DHam (3) He will not be DFA'd.

 

Here is what I would do...

 

Ups> Demote

Schreiber> Jacques (DFA Ort as JS comes off the 60)

Reyes> Trade Duvall or Kike (take Story off 60 to fill 40 man slot, as he starts/ends rehabbing)

Houck> Walter

Whitlock> DFA Kluber or Blier (take Sale off the 60 to fill 40 man slot, as he starts/ends rehabbing)

McGuire> DFA Alfaro

Story> DFA or trade Reyes, Arroyo or Kike (Keep Chang)

 

Someone is likely to get hurt and placed on the short or 60 day IL, before all these guys come back, of maybe some of these guys never make it back, but this is the way I see it, right now.

 

My healthy 26 man roster would be:

 

Paxton, Bello, Sale, Crawford, Houck

Pivetta, Whitlock, Winckowski

Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Joely, (Bernardino or Murphy/ demote the other)

Wong, McGuire

Casas

Story,

Chang, Reyes, (Kike or Arroyo)

Yoshida, Refsnyder

Duran, (Duvall)

Dugo

Turner

 

I think we should trade one from Duvall, Kike or Arroyo and keep Chang and Reyes on the 26 and 40.

 

 

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Not the lack of a full compliment of pitches. It's the lack of an out pitch against lefty batters, who are using him as batting practice to the tune of an .813 OPS.

 

That is something new, so maybe it is reversible. It is a concern, though.

 

OPS v L

.439 in '20 (22 PAs)

.639 in '21 (137 PAs)

.766 in '22 (101)

.813 in '23 (145)

 

I find these issues more concerning...

 

OPS 3rd time through:

1.489 in '21 (18 PAs)

only 3 PAs in 2022

.901 in '23 (51 PAs)

 

Pitch 51-75

1.103 in '20 (15 PAs)

.726 in '21

.663 in '22 (31)

.931 in '23 (51)

 

The real danger is likely a lefty the 3rd time through.