A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

Yes I agree but I have to add that if that is their thought process, good luck to most of them. Most are living in an alternative dream world.

 

Not only are the scholarships unlikely, but I’m not so sure I want my daughter tied down to the rigors of the schedule many schools impose on their athletes…

[Dipre]

Here in the DR, athletics are mostly an alternative to poverty. But my broke ass isn't going to sacrifice my kids' childhoods so I can play the lottery ticket that maybe one day they can make it at baseball (the only sport we churn out athletes for). If they want it though, I'll help them. The way I see it, I gotta help them achieve whatever it is they want.

[Bellhorn04]

Did you call me "nuts" for thinking Turner would pass JD?

 

 

No, I said you'd be nuts to make a bet on it at the time.

[mvp 78]

This is why OPS is such a fun stat!

 

@SoxNotes

Justin Turner leads the Red Sox in games played (69). NICE

 

First 36 games – 2 HR, .717 OPS

Next 33 games – 8 HR, .887 OPS

 

In his last 9 games, Turner has hit .405 with 11 RBI and a 1.180 OPS.

[Dipre]

The penny pincher strikes again!

[Bellhorn04]

Turner doing his best to offset the disaster known as Kluber!

[moonslav59]

Top Team OPS 2022 and 2023 split seasons

.818 ATL '23

.803 TBR '23

.798 TEX '23

.775 LAD '22 and '23

.770 ARI '23

.770 LAA '23

.764 BOS '23

.761 ATL '22

.760 TOR '22

 

Sox Positional Comp from 2022 to 2023:

 

2022 POS 2023

.694 C .732 +38

.683 1B .751 +68

.724 2B .648 -76

.856 SS .638 -218

.815 3B .792 -23

.694 LF .832 +138

.671 CF .833 +162

.661 RF .833 +173

.763 DH .807 +44

 

Line-UP Slots

1) .655 <.811>

2) .843 > .811 -32

3) .836 >741 -95

4) .781 <.821>

5) .732 <.791>

6) .724 <.764>

7) .751 >.684 -67

8) .570 <.766>

9) .642 <.666>

 

How about out 3 OF slots all at .833-.833!

 

The OF alone makes up for the offensive loss at 2B & SS:

.676 to .833

WOW!

Edited June 19, 2023 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

Of course, the same can be said for just about any pro pitching prospect... except maybe a few specialized college closers (cough, Feltman). And it always made sense for clubs to want to use their most talented -- and yes, best-paid -- arms to pitch the most innings and face and hopefully retire the most batters.

 

But modern pitching usage has shown repeatedly that certain guys are more effective coming out of the bullpen and throwing as hard as they can for shorter periods -- look at perfect Pivetta yesterday.

 

We know using a healthy Chris Sale as a starter is practical, in a sense... but what if the Sox instead had spread a recent Sale 100-pitch start over say, three relief stints in a week and a half? Could Sale have positively impacted three games instead of just one... and prevented braking his shoulder while throwing a pitch? With him, probably not -- but there may be others whose arms could be better optimized, at least for a team's won-loss record.

 

That's not new, although I would say it's new and the trend that guys coming out of the pen are valued more in todays game, evolving all the way from hardly existing. But I think anyone would be, or at least should be better out of the bullpen.

 

Any pitcher that had to go from throwing 6-7+ innings per start to going 1-2 is going to shorten up their arsenal and reach back more adding velo. That's going to make any guy better only having to face a lineup one time.

[moonslav59]

Look at the names of pitchers doing the best in the past 4 weeks:

 

Hold onto your seats...

 

Starters/Long Men

.479 Pivetta

.563 Bello

.659 Whitlock

.676 Paxton

.685 Houck

.745 Crawford, .754 Wink and .769 Sale(carried us through the start of the season)

1.141 Kluber

 

The Short Men

.356 Murphy (Long Man?)

.407 Bernardino

.485 Martin

.493 Jansen

.563 Ort

.717 Garza

(.833 Sheriff, .882 Jacques)

1.020 Dermody (Long Man?)

1.792 Joely

 

(Schreiber on IL)

 

It looks nearly upside-down.

[vegasbob]

Have have to love the job the arizona front office and baseball operations department is doing!!!! If the kids continue to develop, they will have an impressive team soon

 

Gee whiz, that guy in Arizona, why can't we get a VP Ops/GM like that ? Mike Hazen, where did he come from ? Oh yeah, studied under Ben Cherington with the Red Sox . Went to AZ in 2016 and the D'backs have had some mixed results including .500+- seasons, 90+ wins, and a couple real stinkers . Now back on the ascendant path against some tough rosters like LAD, SDP and SF Giants. Not quite the AL East but tough anyway.

[vegasbob]

@SoxNotes

Justin Turner leads the Red Sox in games played (69). NICE

 

First 36 games – 2 HR, .717 OPS

Next 33 games – 8 HR, .887 OPS

 

In his last 9 games, Turner has hit .405 with 11 RBI and a 1.180 OPS.

 

Moon advised us several times that Justin Time Turner was a strong second half hitter . The guy is amazing with his insight.

[moonslav59]

Do you honestly think they should sell?

 

I doubt many fans are thinking sell, now, but if we do, perhaps as a seller and a buyer. People look at BTV to get a ruff value of players, but one thing they may not look at- what is the player's value, if we pay half or all their salaries. Here are some BTV numbers:

 

Negative value players:

 

-35 Story. If we paid half his deal ($53M), he'd have a +$18M. (Not going to happen.)

 

-18 Sale (pay half is $18M) he'd be worth zero. May all and he's apparently worth +$18M.

 

-6 Jansen Pay half- $12M) he'd be worth about zero. Pay all and he's worth $12M.

 

-4 Kluber will be owed about $4M at the deadline.

 

-2 Kike will be owed about $4M, too. May it and he's a plus 2.

 

Turner is worth +1 but will be owed about $3M for '23 and has an option. Pay a bunch on his contract, and he'd have pretty high value.

 

Verdugo is worth 23, but pay the $18M he may get after next year's arb, and he's got about $40M value.

 

(Again, I am not for selling.)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Moon advised us several times that Justin Time Turner was a strong second half hitter . The guy is amazing with his insight.

 

No guarantees when expecting past trends to continue. With Justin, it's more than a one year trend.

 

JD has not always dropped off, late in the season.

[moonslav59]

TOR & HOU got blasted, last night.

 

That puts NYY in the 3rd WC slot, alone.

-0.5 HOU

-1.0 TOR

-1.5 BOS

-3.0 SEA

-5.5 CLE

 

Just keep winning!

[cp176]

Not only are the scholarships unlikely, but I’m not so sure I want my daughter tied down to the rigors of the schedule many schools impose on their athletes…

 

One of my girls played field hockey at a very good division three school. it was perfect. She picked up that stick in the late summer and put it down in the late fall. That was plenty for her. I will say though that even though i agree with you, ultimately we know who will make those choices and decisions.

[Hugh2]

I doubt many fans are thinking sell, now, but if we do, perhaps as a seller and a buyer. People look at BTV to get a ruff value of players, but one thing they may not look at- what is the player's value, if we pay half or all their salaries. Here are some BTV numbers:

 

Negative value players:

 

-35 Story. If we paid half his deal ($53M), he'd have a +$18M. (Not going to happen.)

 

-18 Sale (pay half is $18M) he'd be worth zero. May all and he's apparently worth +$18M.

 

-6 Jansen Pay half- $12M) he'd be worth about zero. Pay all and he's worth $12M.

 

-4 Kluber will be owed about $4M at the deadline.

 

-2 Kike will be owed about $4M, too. May it and he's a plus 2.

 

Turner is worth +1 but will be owed about $3M for '23 and has an option. Pay a bunch on his contract, and he'd have pretty high value.

 

Verdugo is worth 23, but pay the $18M he may get after next year's arb, and he's got about $40M value.

 

(Again, I am not for selling.)

 

 

 

If the Sox DID sell, seeing how they're below the cap I think it makes sense to maximize their value by throwing money in. Don't think that happens with Sale and Story, but certainly guys like Kike, and Jansen could make sense. Jansen is probably your best shot at a good prospect. If we are truly sellers, Martin could be thrown in there as well.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Sox DID sell, seeing how they're below the cap I think it makes sense to maximize their value by throwing money in. Don't think that happens with Sale and Story, but certainly guys like Kike, and Jansen could make sense. Jansen is probably your best shot at a good prospect. If we are truly sellers, Martin could be thrown in there as well.

 

The up and down Red Sox are maybe too hard to predict, but at least the younger players are trending positive lately. If a month from now, the Sox are still over .500 and a game or two on either side of a wild card, wouldn't fans deserve to be outraged by a sell off?

 

Boston seems to play to the level of competition, but nine July games vs. Oakland (6) and the Cubs (3) don't have the feel of impending doom like a year ago, when upcoming AL East opponents loomed ominously.

[notin]

The up and down Red Sox are maybe too hard to predict, but at least the younger players are trending positive lately. If a month from now, the Sox are still over .500 and a game or two on either side of a wild card, wouldn't fans deserve to be outraged by a sell off?

 

Boston seems to play to the level of competition, but nine July games vs. Oakland (6) and the Cubs (3) don't have the feel of impending doom like a year ago, when upcoming AL East opponents loomed ominously.

 

You haven’t watched the Cubs lately…

[Hugh2]

The up and down Red Sox are maybe too hard to predict, but at least the younger players are trending positive lately. If a month from now, the Sox are still over .500 and a game or two on either side of a wild card, wouldn't fans deserve to be outraged by a sell off?

 

Boston seems to play to the level of competition, but nine July games vs. Oakland (6) and the Cubs (3) don't have the feel of impending doom like a year ago, when upcoming AL East opponents loomed ominously.

 

I don't think they should sell.

[dannycater]

JD Martinez 4th in Slugging in MLB, 15th OPS, 14th in RBI, 13th in HR.

Justin Turner starting to heat up, that's great...but I don't want to hear anymore JD bashing when he has put up outstanding numbers for MLB.

[Dipre]

Martinez has a .301 OBP in the season (conveniently left out), and he has a .728 OPS in June. He's a notoriously slow finisher.

[Bellhorn04]

Martinez has a .301 OBP in the season (conveniently left out), and he has a .728 OPS in June. He's a notoriously slow finisher.

 

I think that's a bit of an overstatement. It's not like he falls off a cliff. Seems like pretty typical variances.

 

By month

888

900

869

848

887

843

Postseason

987

[dannycater]

JD is not paid to reach base, he is paid to hit extrabase hits (34), and drive in RBI (48)...if you want to include OBP, there is a long list of MLB players who suck at it. Different league, different times...

[dannycater]

.303 .391 obp .596 .987 ops

 

That's NOTORIOUSLY SLOW FINISHER IN POSTSEASON....

[dannycater]

Love the fiction that goes on in here. Moon at least backs up his posts when he argues. He is a loyal Sox fan (once a Pilots fan).

[Dipre]

I mean, did I make up the .301 OBP, my brother?

 

And I see Bellhorn using his entire career, which doesn't fit the current context:

 

Last 3 years second half:

 

2022:.701 OPS

2021: .787 OPS

2020: Sucked all season

 

Notice a trend?

[mvp 78]

JD Martinez 4th in Slugging in MLB, 15th OPS, 14th in RBI, 13th in HR.

Justin Turner starting to heat up, that's great...but I don't want to hear anymore JD bashing when he has put up outstanding numbers for MLB.

 

JD in June '23:

728 OPS

4 HR

196 AVG

58% FB rate

[Dipre]

JD is not paid to reach base, he is paid to hit extrabase hits (34), and drive in RBI (48)...if you want to include OBP, there is a long list of MLB players who suck at it. Different league, different times...

 

Also, that's not how baseball works.

[mvp 78]

I think that's a bit of an overstatement. It's not like he falls off a cliff. Seems like pretty typical variances.

 

By month

888

900

869

848

887

843

Postseason

987

 

2nd Half of 2022: 701 OPS

[mvp 78]

Love the fiction that goes on in here.

 

Yes, we've all read your posts.