A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

JD is not paid to reach base, he is paid to hit extrabase hits (34), and drive in RBI (48)...if you want to include OBP, there is a long list of MLB players who suck at it. Different league, different times...

 

OBP = percentage of time hitter doesn’t make an out. JD isn’t paid to make outs…

[dannycater]

JD 2021 total season.. .286, 28 HR, 99 RBI, led MLB with 42 doubles...but hey, let's use the pandemic shortened season of 2020...good work....JD in 21 playoffs--you know when it counts--3 HR, 10 RBI, .344, .447 obp...he faded so badly. Edited June 20, 2023 by dannycater

[moonslav59]

JD Martinez 4th in Slugging in MLB, 15th OPS, 14th in RBI, 13th in HR.

Justin Turner starting to heat up, that's great...but I don't want to hear anymore JD bashing when he has put up outstanding numbers for MLB.

 

I love JD. It's not bashing to say I think Turner will pass him by the end of the year. I hope JD does well.

 

I hope it ends up Turner .925 and JD .924.

 

JD usually is hot to start the year. Turner usually ends the year hot. It's no slight on either one.

[mvp 78]

JD 2021 left out in your isolated second half.. .286, 28 HR, 99 RBI, led MLB with 42 doubles...but hey, let's use the pandemic shortened season of 2020...good work.

 

Only had 37 RBI in the 2nd half! Almost 2/3rds of his production was from the 1st half?!? WTH?

 

OPS was 787. Good, but not good enough for a number 4 hitter.

[dannycater]

Love how 4th in the MLB Slugging is somehow not good enough. Nice.

[mvp 78]

He's slowing down simply due to age. He may have been productive in the 2nd half earlier in his career, but I don't think his body responds the same way at age 35.

[mvp 78]

Love how 4th in the MLB Slugging is somehow not good enough. Nice.

 

Go cheer for Los Doyers if you want to that much?

[notin]

JD 2021 left out in your isolated second half.. .286, 28 HR, 99 RBI, led MLB with 42 doubles...but hey, let's use the pandemic shortened season of 2020...good work.

 

If you leave out 2020, JDs last 3 seasons with Boston were .937, .867, .790. Not horrible but very trending the wrong way, and at age 35, I can see not relying on them to reverse. Turner want noticeably better, but at least had the option of playing the field.

 

It’s not a slight at JD that I don’t mind him moving on. But he really didn’t do much his last few seasons in Boston to make re-signing him a no-brainer..

[moonslav59]

I think that's a bit of an overstatement. It's not like he falls off a cliff. Seems like pretty typical variances.

 

By month

888

900

869

848

887

843

Postseason

987

 

No, JD usually does not fall off a cliff, late seasons, but here are the numbers since 2018:

 

Overall:

.889 JD

.846 Turner

 

1st Half>2nd Half

 

JD

1.037>1.021 '18

.918>.965 '19

Whole Season: .680 (.389 SLG)

.926>.787 '21 (SLG .556>.468)

.849>.701 '22 (SLG .481>.400)

No, 2 years in a row is not really a trend, but it does look concerning when you look at 2020 with it. And, 3 of the last 4 yrs, saw decline.)

Career: .892>.864 is pretty close.

 

Turner:

Career: .809>.857

Both hitters are very good in 1st and 2nd halves, generally, but there is a significant difference between their career 1st and second half numbers:

JD +.081 1st Half

JD +.007 2nd half

 

Now, here are the WOW numbers for Turner:

.747>1.066 '18

.822>.971 '19

Whole season .800 (.460 SLG) 1.066 in WS

.889>.755 '21 (.434 SLG)

.734>.889 '22 (.503 SLG)

2021 was the outlier, but 3 out of 4 for Turner, too.

 

I'm not hoping JD sucks.

 

[Dipre]

I don't get why it's such a big deal. No one here hates JD, but it makes sense to discuss the reasons he was let go, and the performance of his replacement on this here baseball discussion board. It's not personal.

[Hugh2]

JD literally looked like he was toast last year and everyone was ready to move on from him. I always liked him, I'm happy to see he's got a little bit left in the tank.

 

That's one thing I'm never going to fault the front office for however. He played his contract here and performed, they moved on, he looked burnt and NO ONE wanted him here. It's a completely hindsight opinion.

[Dipre]

OBP = percentage of time hitter doesn’t make an out. JD isn’t paid to make outs…

 

That's what I keep saying!

[Hugh2]

If you leave out 2020, JDs last 3 seasons with Boston were .937, .867, .790. Not horrible but very trending the wrong way, and at age 35, I can see not relying on them to reverse. Turner want noticeably better, but at least had the option of playing the field.

 

It’s not a slight at JD that I don’t mind him moving on. But he really didn’t do much his last few seasons in Boston to make re-signing him a no-brainer..

 

You expect people here to have memories and stand by their opinions of the past? you expect too much.

[Dipre]

JD literally looked like he was toast last year and everyone was ready to move on from him. I always liked him, I'm happy to see he's got a little bit left in the tank.

 

That's one thing I'm never going to fault the front office for however. He played his contract here and performed, they moved on, he looked burnt and NO ONE wanted him here. It's a completely hindsight opinion.

 

And his current skillset also goes against Bloom's current roster construction tenets. He wants another take-and-rake team that can work the count and draw walks. JD has had to sacrifice working the count to maintain power numbers, and good for him.

[moonslav59]

If you leave out 2020, JDs last 3 seasons with Boston were .937, .867, .790. Not horrible but very trending the wrong way, and at age 35, I can see not relying on them to reverse. Turner want noticeably better, but at least had the option of playing the field.

 

It’s not a slight at JD that I don’t mind him moving on. But he really didn’t do much his last few seasons in Boston to make re-signing him a no-brainer..

 

Turner has declined with age, too, but seems to have leveled off his decline, recently.

'17>'19: .945>.924>.881

'20>'22: .860>.832>.799

 

JD:

.985 (.593)

.829 (.484) note: most of the decline was in SLG)

 

Another view:

Turner:

'17-'19: .916 (.519 SLG) in 1518 PAs

'20-'23: .814 (.454 SLG)

A .102 decline in OPS and .065 in SLG

 

JD

1.007 (.619 SLG) in 1795 PAs

.816 (.484 SLG) in 1706 PAs

A .191 decline in OPS and .135 in SLG

 

These two are not aging the same way. That's not fiction.

[moonslav59]

JD literally looked like he was toast last year and everyone was ready to move on from him. I always liked him, I'm happy to see he's got a little bit left in the tank.

 

That's one thing I'm never going to fault the front office for however. He played his contract here and performed, they moved on, he looked burnt and NO ONE wanted him here. It's a completely hindsight opinion.

 

...and in no way does this fact slight anything he did for us. The guy was a freakin' hero for us, for many year. Age decline happens, and it's great to see JD off to a fantastic start to 2023.

 

Not expecting him to continue this is not hating on anyone.

 

My original point about Turner passing JD, this year was supposed to be about pumping up a current Sox player and not hating on a past one.

[Maxbialystock]

If you leave out 2020, JDs last 3 seasons with Boston were .937, .867, .790. Not horrible but very trending the wrong way, and at age 35, I can see not relying on them to reverse. Turner want noticeably better, but at least had the option of playing the field.

 

It’s not a slight at JD that I don’t mind him moving on. But he really didn’t do much his last few seasons in Boston to make re-signing him a no-brainer..

 

Completely agree. I thought JD transformed the 2017 team into the juggernaut they became when he joined them in 2018. What fantastic addition! But, as you say, the trend was in the wrong direction, plus I got tired of him swinging at those low and away sliders. I am of course astounded at how well JDM has hit for the Dodgers this year, but I'm not at all unhappy with Turner. Am I the only one who noticed Turner has the higher WAR (so far)?

[vegasbob]

JD took a 1 year, $10MM deal from the Dodgers, but not useful in the field . JD bet on himself to perform. Kike Hernandez took a 1 year, $10MM deal, but plays multiple positions, sort of, for comparison. Which guy would you rather have (rhetorical question)

 

Turner took a 2year deal at a combined $21.7MM , with 2023 at $8.3MM, but the 2024 year is at his option , not the clubs, and will cost Boston $13.4 MM . This arrangement was risky for the Red Sox unless Turner performed , and if he did, he could potentially move on . Most likely, Justin takes the nice option and smiles on the way to the bank. Alternatively, the Sox can buy him out of the option for $6.7MM. Justin also provides some time at 3B and 1B , so gives some value as a backup in the field.

 

The only thing about JDM that was truly maddening was the chasing of the low, away slider on which he could never see and react ( by holding back) to the spin.

Edited June 20, 2023 by vegasbob

[vegasbob]

BTW, Kluber also got a 1 year, $10MM deal with a CLUB option at $11MM for 2024. No chance on that one.

[moonslav59]

JD took a 1 year, $10MM deal from the Dodgers, but not useful in the field . JD bet on himself to perform. Kike Hernandez took a 1 year, $10MM deal, but plays multiple positions, sort of, for comparison. Which guy would you rather have (rhetorical question)

 

Turner took a 2year deal at a combined $21.7MM , with 2023 at $8.3MM, but the 2024 year is at his option , not the clubs, and will cost Boston $13.4 MM . This arrangement was risky for the Red Sox unless Turner performed , and if he did, he could potentially move on . Most likely, Justin takes the nice option and smiles on the way to the bank. Alternatively, the Sox can buy him out of the option for $6.7MM. Justin also provides some time at 3B and 1B , so gives some value as a backup in the field.

 

The only thing about JDM that was truly maddening was the chasing of the low, away slider on which he could never see and react ( by holding back) to the spin.

 

Good points.

 

The Turner deal could be $15M/1 or $21.7M/2.

[moonslav59]

BTW, Kluber also got a 1 year, $10MM deal with a CLUB option at $11MM for 2024. No chance on that one.

 

No buy out, either.

 

[vegasbob]

Good points.

 

The Turner deal could be $15M/1 or $21.7M/2.

 

Turner also has some $200K performance bonuses based on PA's starting at 480 , then 500, 520,540,and 560. Barring injury and his regularity in the lineup so far, he should collect on most of those.

[Bellhorn04]

I mean, did I make up the .301 OBP, my brother?

 

And I see Bellhorn using his entire career, which doesn't fit the current context:

 

Last 3 years second half:

 

2022:.701 OPS

2021: .787 OPS

2020: Sucked all season

 

Notice a trend?

 

Yes, but you did say "notoriously", which sounds like it pertains to his whole career. So I think you're being mean to me.

[Dipre]

Yes, but you did say "notoriously", which sounds like it pertains to his whole career. So I think you're being mean to me.

 

It's notorious among us, and you can be damn sure Chaim Bloom reads this site.

[moonslav59]

It's notorious among us, and you can be damn sure Chaim Bloom reads this site.

 

Chaim sometimes posts under the name OldRed.

[notin]

It's notorious among us, and you can be damn sure Chaim Bloom reads this site.

 

I’m sure he peruses each of the hundreds of Sox boards out there. He usually goes by the name MADSTORK

[Dipre]

I’m sure he peruses each of the hundreds of Sox boards out there. He usually goes by the name MADSTORK

 

I suspected as much.

[mvp 78]

@NBCSEdgeBB

Reds designate Wil Myers for assignment on Tuesday

 

Sox can finally get this king!

[Nick]

Obviously we want Turner back. On this Sox team with with several lefties its a big plus to have a right handed bat that can play 3B and 1B.

 

It actually works out perfectly. 2025 will feature Yoshida as DH.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

Not much talk here about Duran and what he did last night.

 

Some posters mocked me about 'high ceiling' players.

 

Well Duran is such a player. No hit ball got past an outfielder. Yet he managed to reach 2nd base each time (3 total).

 

He has stuff that can't be taught. He looks pretty amazing to me.

 

One thing I've enjoyed about this year is getting to see new, young faces.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Nick