A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

The point isn’t about whether or not a smaller individual is better/bigger/faster. The point was an entire league is bigger, more athletic, throwing harder and grew up playing lots more baseball. Oh and they come from a larger talent pool, so establishing yourself as one of the best 780 players in the world is more difficult than it was even when the league had 26 teams and only 650 players made it…

 

There may be some negative developments in modern players too.

 

Maybe their increased size and muscularity has made them more injury-prone.

 

Also, modern players might be more subject to things like lack of hustle and mental errors, due to the amount of money in the game, the general move away from hard-nosed disciplinarian managerial approach etc.

 

Note that I'm not stating any of that as firm beliefs...just possibilities to be considered.

[Bellhorn04]

Houck is going to be gone for a while, so that's a blow to our chances. Though obviously it could have been a lot worse.

[Jasonbay44]

Houck is going to be gone for a while, so that's a blow to our chances. Though obviously it could have been a lot worse.

 

It sounds like the average recovery time for that type of injury is 6-8 weeks. Very tough blow for Houck and the Sox

[notin]

Houck is going to be gone for a while, so that's a blow to our chances. Though obviously it could have been a lot worse.

 

It does hurt the team by but obviously that’s secondary to Tanner’s recovery. And luck. That could have been devastating…

[notin]

There may be some negative developments in modern players too.

 

Maybe their increased size and muscularity has made them more injury-prone.

 

Also, modern players might be more subject to things like lack of hustle and mental errors, due to the amount of money in the game, the general move away from hard-nosed disciplinarian managerial approach etc.

 

Note that I'm not stating any of that as firm beliefs...just possibilities to be considered.

 

I’m not sure if players are more injury-prone or less. Even if careers were shorter, that could also be rooted in finances, as many players simply had to play longer 30 years ago.

 

I do agree increased salaries have reduced the roles of many players. Why have your $30mill SP pitch that 7th inning with a big lead? Cora’s scheduled off days for hitters fit this logic, too. After all, at some point there’se are no longer players but are investments.

 

Still the notion that the league is watered down because some team 50 years ago was good or because you believe the unprovable notion that two pitchers back then would still be i hittable is preposterous. I suppose if Verlander or Gerrit Cole faced the Big Red Machine, the assumption is they’d treat them like batting practice?

[Bellhorn04]

I’m not sure if players are more injury-prone or less. Even if careers were shorter, that could also be rooted in finances, as many players simply had to play longer 30 years ago.

 

I do agree increased salaries have reduced the roles of many players. Why have your $30mill SP pitch that 7th inning with a big lead? Cora’s scheduled off days for hitters fit this logic, too. After all, at some point there’se are no longer players but are investments.

 

Still the notion that the league is watered down because some team 50 years ago was good or because you believe the unprovable notion that two pitchers back then would still be i hittable is preposterous. I suppose if Verlander or Gerrit Cole faced the Big Red Machine, the assumption is they’d treat them like batting practice?

 

It's a rabbit hole. But for some reason a lot of folks do like diving down rabbit holes...

[notin]

It's a rabbit hole. But for some reason a lot of folks do like diving down rabbit holes...

 

You know, if Alice never went down that rabbit hole, those books would have been awful, boring and forgettable…

[moonslav59]

It sounds like the average recovery time for that type of injury is 6-8 weeks. Very tough blow for Houck and the Sox

 

It sure is.

 

I wouldn't say we've had more than our share of injuries, but other than Duvall's, they all seem to be targeted to 2 positions: Pitching and SS.

 

Pitching:

Sale

Paxton

Houck (twice)

Whitlock

Martin

Scheiber

Crawford

Bleier

Joely

Kelly & W MIlls

 

SS

Story

Mondesi

Chang

(Arroyo)

[Dipre]

my point is that our payroll has gone from around #3 in MLB to now #11. Spending 10 million on a player nowadays is not really that much. Most of the players we let walk { JD, Eovaldi, Wacha} are doing better elsewhere than the guys Bloom brought in as replacements.

 

Should they spend more money or build a better roster? Burning money doesn't equate upgrading the roster.

[moonslav59]

Should they spend more money or build a better roster? Burning money doesn't equate upgrading the roster.

 

It can often help, but yes.

[Dipre]

It can often help, but yes.

 

The Mets sure are good right now.

[moonslav59]

Looks like the Rays and Rangers will make the playoffs, unless Hou (5.5 GB) passes them.

 

MIN or CLE should win the Central, and I seriously doubt a WC team comes from there.

 

That leaves the WC race looking like this, after tonight:

 

BAL: +5.5

LAA: +1.0

 

HOU & NYY tied for the last slot at 39-33

 

-0.5 TOR

-2.0 BOS

-3.0 SEA

-5.5 CLE

 

Sure looks a lot better than we did after losing the first 2 to COL. It just goes to show you how quickly things can turn around, no matter what the schedule looks like- no matter who is pitching.

 

We have exactly 90 games to go- 9 games from the halfway mark.

GO SOX! Go!

[moonslav59]

The Mets sure are good right now.

 

Funny.

 

3-13 Mets in last 16.

 

How about Cincy?

Win 5.

Lose 4.

Win 3.

Lose 2.

Win 8, including sweep of HOU.

 

MIA 15-5 in last 20.

 

AZ 14-6

Edited June 19, 2023 by moonslav59

[Dipre]

I meant the Mets as an example of big spending with bad results.

[moonslav59]

I meant the Mets as an example of big spending with bad results.

 

Yes. they did, and they have.

[Larry Cook]

Funny.

 

3-13 Mets in last 16.

 

How about Cincy?

Win 5.

Lose 4.

Win 3.

Lose 2.

Win 8, including sweep of HOU.

 

MIA 15-15 in last 20.

 

AZ 14-6

 

Have have to love the job the arizona front office and baseball operations department is doing!!!! If the kids continue to develop, they will have an impressive team soon

[moonslav59]

Have have to love the job the arizona front office and baseball operations department is doing!!!! If the kids continue to develop, they will have an impressive team soon

 

Agreed, and several other teams seem to be making some smart choices, too.

 

Most by building their farm.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In Spring Training, Chris Murphy looked like a guy who'd be able to help the bullpen this season. But you know the intel in the front office -- they were obligated to "stretch him out" (try him as a starter) in Triple A Woo, where he looked not so good.

 

Glad he's back relieving, and maybe the Sox can get contributions in similar roles from Brandon Walter, and even Bryan Mata, eventually.

 

The big problem, as usual in the Bloom Era, is the utter lack of adequate starting pitching depth when guys like Sale and now, Houck, go on the IL. They can't just promote Drohan when he's not ready yet or on the 40...

[Hugh2]

In Spring Training, Chris Murphy looked like a guy who'd be able to help the bullpen this season. But you know the intel in the front office -- they were obligated to "stretch him out" (try him as a starter) in Triple A Woo, where he looked not so good.

 

Glad he's back relieving, and maybe the Sox can get contributions in similar roles from Brandon Walter, and even Bryan Mata, eventually.

 

The big problem, as usual in the Bloom Era, is the utter lack of adequate starting pitching depth when guys like Sale and now, Houck, go on the IL. They can't just promote Drohan when he's not ready yet or on the 40...

 

Chris Murphy has always been a starting pitcher up until very recently. So he's not really not "back" to relieving, but it's nice to see him doing well in that role.

 

Teams are always going to develop a guy as a starter and let him fail before moving him to the bullpen, sometimes even if they think a move is inevitable it makes sense to give them the innings to work on developing a pitch, gaining strength, and work on other things. Sometimes I do with the Sox would be a little quicker to take some of these starters at the AAA level and move them to the bullpen.

[mvp 78]

In Spring Training, Chris Murphy looked like a guy who'd be able to help the bullpen this season. But you know the intel in the front office -- they were obligated to "stretch him out" (try him as a starter) in Triple A Woo, where he looked not so good.

 

Glad he's back relieving, and maybe the Sox can get contributions in similar roles from Brandon Walter, and even Bryan Mata, eventually.

 

The big problem, as usual in the Bloom Era, is the utter lack of adequate starting pitching depth when guys like Sale and now, Houck, go on the IL. They can't just promote Drohan when he's not ready yet or on the 40...

 

I still don't believe in Murphy long term. I don't see anything out of Walter right now as his stuff has ticked down a notch since his injury. Mata has no control from inning to inning. I wouldn't promote Drohan this year no matter what.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Chris Murphy has always been a starting pitcher up until very recently. So he's not really not "back" to relieving, but it's nice to see him doing well in that role.

 

Teams are always going to develop a guy as a starter and let him fail before moving him to the bullpen, sometimes even if they think a move is inevitable it makes sense to give them the innings to work on developing a pitch, gaining strength, and work on other things. Sometimes I do with the Sox would be a little quicker to take some of these starters at the AAA level and move them to the bullpen.

 

Of course, the same can be said for just about any pro pitching prospect... except maybe a few specialized college closers (cough, Feltman). And it always made sense for clubs to want to use their most talented -- and yes, best-paid -- arms to pitch the most innings and face and hopefully retire the most batters.

 

But modern pitching usage has shown repeatedly that certain guys are more effective coming out of the bullpen and throwing as hard as they can for shorter periods -- look at perfect Pivetta yesterday.

 

We know using a healthy Chris Sale as a starter is practical, in a sense... but what if the Sox instead had spread a recent Sale 100-pitch start over say, three relief stints in a week and a half? Could Sale have positively impacted three games instead of just one... and prevented braking his shoulder while throwing a pitch? With him, probably not -- but there may be others whose arms could be better optimized, at least for a team's won-loss record.

[dannycater]

First doubleheader win at Fenway v. Yankees since 1976....wow...anyway, good for the Sox, good for the pitching, and good for some joy for the Sox fans for a brief weekend.

[moonslav59]

In Spring Training, Chris Murphy looked like a guy who'd be able to help the bullpen this season. But you know the intel in the front office -- they were obligated to "stretch him out" (try him as a starter) in Triple A Woo, where he looked not so good.

 

Glad he's back relieving, and maybe the Sox can get contributions in similar roles from Brandon Walter, and even Bryan Mata, eventually.

 

The big problem, as usual in the Bloom Era, is the utter lack of adequate starting pitching depth when guys like Sale and now, Houck, go on the IL. They can't just promote Drohan when he's not ready yet or on the 40...

 

I felt we had depth to start the season. I even spoke of too much quantity and not enough quality. Some of the depth I saw was an illusion, and I'm still not sure Murphy is not an hallucination.

 

Starters:

Sale (60 day IL)

Paxton (started on IL)

Kluber (demoted to pen)

Pivetta (demoted to pen but may return)

Whitlock (was on IL but has returned)

Houck (was on IL, returned and now is back on it)

Bello (started season on IL)

 

We knew Paxton was starting on the IL, and Sale was one violent sneeze away from it, but we started with 7 pretty good or pretty promising SP'ers, and here was the depth beyond those

7:

8. Crawford (was on IL earlier)

9. Winckowski (has not been used as a SP'er)

(Minors)

10. Mata (was our 6th rated prospect and was considered close to ML ready)

11. Walter (was our 8th rated prospect and was considered close to ML ready)

12. Murphy (was our 13th rated prospect and was considered close to ML ready)

(Drohan and Wikelman were considered too far away)

 

Of course we knew many would be or get hurt, but what GM plans on his top 8 SP'ers spending time on the IL in the first 72 games of the year?

 

Then, all 3 minor league guys sucked, big time, to start the season.

 

It is very strange how over 90% of our ILs are pitchers or SSs.

Pen: Martin, Screiber, Kelly, Mills and probably some I forgot.

SS: Story, Mondesi, Chang

[moonslav59]

Want some encouraging numbers?

 

Team Pitching Rankings since May 16:

 

fWAR

5.3 MIA

4.9 BOS & SDP T2nd

4.8 SFG

 

ERA

3.06 SFG

3.19 CWS

3.37 HOU (with 3 starters out all year)

3.48 SDP

3.50 BOS

 

3rd in ERA- at 79

4th in FIP at 3.69

7th in xFIP- at 95

10th K-BB% at 15.6% (2.98 K/BB)

 

Starters:

T4th fWAR at 3.0

5th ERA at 3.58

5th in ERA- at 81 (1 behind TR and 2 behind 1st tie CWS, HOU, TEX)

T3rd xFIP- at 88

 

Now, some of those numbers included Sale and Houck, but we got back Whitlock and others.

 

Anyone know when Schreiber returns?

[moonslav59]

How about Turner heating up as we near the midpoint of the season?

 

This guy is a second half stud, of late, There is no guarantee it will continue, but I am more than encouraged by his hot streak. It seems to be contagious, too:

 

7 Days OPS

 

1.269 Yoshida (steady as a rock, this year.)

1.140 Verdugo (finding the groove, again- career year?)

1.138 Turner (was one of MLB's best second half hitters, last season)

1.039 Duran (maybe he adjusted to the adjustment)

 

.947 Devers (burn, baby, burn!)

 

.888 Casas (very encouraging)

.864 Refsnyder (quietly putting together two good seasons in a row)

 

.762 Reyes (has really helped us for a dumpster dive addition)

 

.686 Wong

.648 Arroyo

.600 Kike

 

.538 Duvall

.286 McGuire

 

Last 14 Days

.991 Turner (12 rbi leads team)

.921 Devers (4 HR ties with Turner for club lead)

 

.864 Duran

.826 Casas

.798 Ref

 

.692 Yoshida

.644 Wong

(I don't want to list the rest.)

 

Last 28 Days

.875 Ref

.847 Yosh

.841 Wong

.806 Turner

.801 Dugo

.783 Casas

 

First, I want to say, I do not wish JD falls off a cliff, like last year, but here is the head-to-head OPS race:

 

April 30:

.840 JD

.723 Turner

JD +.117

 

May 31st:

.931 JD

.755 Turner

JD +.176

 

June 19th:

.879 JD (.495 last 8 games)

.799 Turner

JD +.080

 

It was .945 to .749 on June 10th (JD+ .196!)

 

Only 9 games to cut .116 off the lead!

 

[Bellhorn04]

How about Turner heating up as we near the midpoint of the season?

 

This guy is a second half stud, of late, There is no guarantee it will continue, but I am more than encouraged by his hot streak. It seems to be contagious, too:

 

7 Days OPS

 

1.269 Yoshida (steady as a rock, this year.)

1.140 Verdugo (finding the groove, again- career year?)

1.138 Turner (was one of MLB's best second half hitters, last season)

1.039 Duran (maybe he adjusted to the adjustment)

 

.947 Devers (burn, baby, burn!)

 

.888 Casas (very encouraging)

.864 Refsnyder (quietly putting together two good seasons in a row)

 

.762 Reyes (has really helped us for a dumpster dive addition)

 

.686 Wong

.648 Arroyo

.600 Kike

 

.538 Duvall

.286 McGuire

 

Last 14 Days

.991 Turner (12 rbi leads team)

.921 Devers (4 HR ties with Turner for club lead)

 

.864 Duran

.826 Casas

.798 Ref

 

.692 Yoshida

.644 Wong

(I don't want to list the rest.)

 

Last 28 Days

.875 Ref

.847 Yosh

.841 Wong

.806 Turner

.801 Dugo

.783 Casas

 

First, I want to say, I do not wish JD falls off a cliff, like last year, but here is the head-to-head OPS race:

 

April 30:

.840 JD

.723 Turner

JD +.117

 

May 31st:

.931 JD

.755 Turner

JD +.176

 

June 19th:

.879 JD (.495 last 8 games)

.799 Turner

JD +.080

 

It was .945 to .749 on June 10th (JD+ .196!)

 

Only 9 games to cut .116 off the lead!

 

 

This is why OPS is such a fun stat!

[moonslav59]

Our fWAR Leaders and MLB Rankings (100+ PAs)

 

T 20. Verdugo 2.3

T 88. Devers, Yoshida and Duran 1.2

T 113. Turner 1.0

T 139. Refsnyder 0.8 (just 123 PAs)

T 152. Wong 0.7

 

Notables:

7. Betts 3.0

13. Swanson 2.6

31. Bogey 2.1

136, Dubon & JD 0.9

150. Margot 0.8

161. Beni 0.7

178. Pillar & T Pham 0.6

258. Schwarber & Moncada

340. J Abreu -1.0

 

Pitching (20+ IP)

52. Sale 1.2

63. Paxton 1.0 (missed 7-8 starts)

74. Bello & Houck

100. Jansen 0.8

133. Martin 0.6

158. Whitlock, Crawford & Wink 0.5

 

Notables:

5. Nate 2.6

10. Castillo 2.1

11. Wacha 2.0

13. Eflin 1.9

24. ERod 1.7

63. Logan Allen 1.0

100. Strahm 0.8

[moonslav59]

This is why OPS is such a fun stat!

 

Did you call me "nuts" for thinking Turner would pass JD?

 

[cp176]

A lot of parents view athletic scholarships as an alternative to tuition…

 

Yes I agree but I have to add that if that is their thought process, good luck to most of them. Most are living in an alternative dream world.

[mvp 78]

This is why OPS is such a fun stat!

 

It's a horse race where you know one of the horses is going to be limping towards the finish line.