A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Trading Kike and Turner sould only save Turner's salary, next year.

 

I'm only for trading Turner, if we are out of it and aren't planning on spending a lot, next winter.

 

They don't have to spend a lot next winter, but need to sign or trade for two good veteran pitchers to front the rotation. The arms don't have to be expensive, but should be paid reasonable market rates -- like, for instance, what Eovaldi and Wacha signed for this winter.

 

And I don't care if the Sox get hot and win 90 or gag and lose 90, they need to add top of the rotation starting pitching. It all starts there -- even in a rebuild.

[moonslav59]

They don't have to spend a lot next winter, but need to sign or trade for two good veteran pitchers to front the rotation. The arms don't have to be expensive, but should be paid reasonable market rates -- like, for instance, what Eovaldi and Wacha signed for this winter.

 

And I don't care if the Sox get hot and win 90 or gag and lose 90, they need to add top of the rotation starting pitching. It all starts there -- even in a rebuild.

 

You are right, but what are the odds of finding the next Wacha and Nate?

 

Look at all the pitchers signed within the range of those two contract and what do you think the success rate is?

 

We are 1 for 3 in contracts between $7-17M (Richards, Kluber and Wacha, and Wacha started just 22 games.)

 

IMO

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

IMO

 

Improved success can be measured in many ways. Obviously, a pitcher doesn't have to win 20 games anymore to be considered an ace. A team doesn't even need to win 20 of a starter's starts for the guy to help stabilize a staff and positively impact a club.

 

Innings pitched (especially per start) and swing-and-miss stuff can both rest and take the pressure off bullpens, defenses and offenses. The stopper gives teammates confidence not to overextend their roles, and instead just do their jobs... and they'll always be in the game, with a good chance to win. It's reassuring, every five days, for six months.

[moonslav59]

Improved success can be measured in many ways. Obviously, a pitcher doesn't have to win 20 games anymore to be considered an ace. A team doesn't even need to win 20 of a starter's starts for the guy to help stabilize a staff and positively impact a club.

 

Innings pitched (especially per start) and swing-and-miss stuff can both rest and take the pressure off bullpens, defenses and offenses. The stopper gives teammates confidence not to overextend their roles, and instead just do their jobs... and they'll always be in the game, with a good chance to win. It's reassuring, every five days, for six months.

 

If we don't get a traditional ace, we'd need two guys like this year's Wacha and Nate (with no expectation they will continue being this good for more than one season.)

 

Again, what are the odds any GM can go 2 for 2 on signings like theirs?

 

It's easy to say, just do this, but the odds are so long, it's frightening.

Edited June 16, 2023 by moonslav59

[Randy Red Sox]

we haven't spent a lot the past few winters

Trading Kike and Turner sould only save Turner's salary, next year.

 

I'm only for trading Turner, if we are out of it and aren't planning on spending a lot, next winter.

[moonslav59]

we haven't spent a lot the past few winters

 

The Devers extension kicks in, next year but since the Story signing in March 2022 to the Devers extension, we've spent a ton .

 

314 Devers

140 Story

90 Yoshida- not counting posting fee

32 Jansen

22 Turner

19 Martin

10 Kluber

7 Duvall

 

Is a lot really this subjective?

 

 

[moonslav59]

As badly as we have played, especially the last couple weeks, we are at .500 and just 4 games behind the "mighty" Yankees after 70 games played.

 

WC Standings

-- NYY & HOU tied (39-21)

-0.0 LAA

-0.5 TOR

-4.0 BOS

-4.5 SEA

 

BAL is probably going to be too far ahead to catch (+8.5 on the Sox.)

 

92 games to go.

[Bellhorn04]

The Devers extension kicks in, next year but since the Story signing in March 2022 to the Devers extension, we've spent a ton .

 

314 Devers

140 Story

90 Yoshida- not counting posting fee

32 Jansen

22 Turner

19 Martin

10 Kluber

7 Duvall

 

Is a lot really this subjective?

 

You can argue this one both ways. Yes, they have handed out some big new contracts. On the other hand, they have managed to trim the annual payroll cost from where it was in 2018-2019.

 

They're spending on the one hand and shedding payroll on the other. Your numbers tend not to include the shedding part.

[notin]

They don't have to spend a lot next winter, but need to sign or trade for two good veteran pitchers to front the rotation. The arms don't have to be expensive, but should be paid reasonable market rates -- like, for instance, what Eovaldi and Wacha signed for this winter.

 

And I don't care if the Sox get hot and win 90 or gag and lose 90, they need to add top of the rotation starting pitching. It all starts there -- even in a rebuild.

 

That’s certainly the easy way to rebuild. Unfortunately it’s also the easy way to need to do another tear down.

 

Obviously an elite SP will only help. I just can’t call it a “need.”

 

Baltimore has the third best record in MLB. Do they have anyone you’d consider an ace? Atlanta has the second best. Do they?

 

Baltimore gets by with their topflight bullpen. Atlanta just has a bunch of good pitchers.

 

The ace model is just one way to improve, but to me it leaves too much hinging on one player. Just look at the ace the Sox signed after the 2018 season…

[Bellhorn04]

Take it for what it's worth, but an article in The Athletic suggests the Sox have been looking for pitching help, and are still talking about upgrading the 2023 team, with no thoughts of a deadline selloff.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That’s certainly the easy way to rebuild. Unfortunately it’s also the easy way to need to do another tear down.

 

Obviously an elite SP will only help. I just can’t call it a “need.”

 

Baltimore has the third best record in MLB. Do they have anyone you’d consider an ace? Atlanta has the second best. Do they?

 

Baltimore gets by with their topflight bullpen. Atlanta just has a bunch of good pitchers.

 

The ace model is just one way to improve, but to me it leaves too much hinging on one player. Just look at the ace the Sox signed after the 2018 season…

 

The need is more for good depth -- so they don't have to sign and then cut questionable characters in the same week (like the past week) when inevitable injuries overlap with cramped schedules. I also said "sign or trade for two good veteran pitchers to front the rotation." The more the merrier.

 

As for Atlanta's starters, Strider may not be an "ace" yet, but he's exactly the type of pitcher to boost a poor defensive team, since he leads the majors in strikeouts and K/9 IP... infielders can't make as many throwing errors when they don't touch the ball (except maybe on around-the-horn, after punch-outs).

[notin]

The need is more for good depth -- so they don't have to sign and then cut questionable characters in the same week (like the past week) when inevitable injuries overlap with cramped schedules. I also said "sign or trade for two good veteran pitchers to front the rotation." The more the merrier.

 

As for Atlanta's starters, Strider may not be an "ace" yet, but he's exactly the type of pitcher to boost a poor defensive team, since he leads the majors in strikeouts and K/9 IP... infielders can't make as many throwing errors when they don't touch the ball (except maybe on around-the-horn, after punch-outs).

 

 

I don’t see the Sox splurging on any pitcher is one elbow tingle away from detailing the season. Depth is king. Our Strider-to-be might be Brayan Bello. But rather than Ohtani or Urias or Giolito, I think the target might be lowered to maybe a Blake Snell or metrics-darling/performance flop Jack Flaherty.

 

Beyond that, I’m just hoping to avoid the pitchers on the downside of their career, aka Kluber 2.0. I’m looking at you, Alex Cobb…

[notin]

Take it for what it's worth, but an article in The Athletic suggests the Sox have been looking for pitching help, and are still talking about upgrading the 2023 team, with no thoughts of a deadline selloff.

 

Do you honestly think they should sell?

[Randy Red Sox]

my point is that our payroll has gone from around #3 in MLB to now #11. Spending 10 million on a player nowadays is not really that much. Most of the players we let walk { JD, Eovaldi, Wacha} are doing better elsewhere than the guys Bloom brought in as replacements.

The Devers extension kicks in, next year but since the Story signing in March 2022 to the Devers extension, we've spent a ton .

 

314 Devers

140 Story

90 Yoshida- not counting posting fee

32 Jansen

22 Turner

19 Martin

10 Kluber

7 Duvall

 

Is a lot really this subjective?

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Do you honestly think they should sell?

 

Right now, hell no, I still have some hope we make the playoffs.

[Old Red]

Right now, hell no, I still have some hope we make the playoffs.

 

If it gets to the point this year that the team should sell, and does sell, and that the future looks so bleak of making the postseason this year in a watered down league than a complete sell off should be done starting with Bloom, and Cora, and they can take the BIG guy JH with them.

[notin]

If it gets to the point this year that the team should sell, and does sell, and that the future looks so bleak of making the postseason this year in a watered down league than a complete sell off should be done starting with Bloom, and Cora, and they can take the BIG guy JH with them.

 

Watered down league?

 

Due to the growth of travel ball and youth programs that have year round play, the overall talent level is actually rising. Not to mention the growth in scouting and advancements in metrics like launch angle , etc. and the new programs for pitchers to increase velocity. This year, 21 starting pitchers are averaging 95mph or more. From 2008 to 2013 combined, only 14 starting pitchers had a season with an average velocity that high. Twenty years ago, a pitcher like Sox minor leaguer Ryan Fernandez and his 97mph fastball would have been fast racked to MLB. Today, Ryan can’t even get out of AA.

 

The league isn’t watered down. Far from it…

[Hugh2]

For the first month of the season the Sox had one of the best offenses in baseball but couldn’t pitch to save their life.

 

Ironically the script has flipped. The staff is 6th in MLB in era the past month. 5th in average and 4th in obp allowed.

 

That’s crazy. The one constant is the defense sucks. You kind of have to hope they can just pitch and hit at the same time, If they can ever do that this Sox team will be one of the most potent teams in all of mlb.

 

The only real way to improve this team is to shore up the defense. Hypothetically, that should happen with a healthy Chung, and Story back.

[Old Red]

Watered down league?

 

Due to the growth of travel ball and youth programs that have year round play, the overall talent level is actually rising. Not to mention the growth in scouting and advancements in metrics like launch angle , etc. and the new programs for pitchers to increase velocity. This year, 21 starting pitchers are averaging 95mph or more. From 2008 to 2013 combined, only 14 starting pitchers had a season with an average velocity that high. Twenty years ago, a pitcher like Sox minor leaguer Ryan Fernandez and his 97mph fastball would have been fast racked to MLB. Today, Ryan can’t even get out of AA.

 

The league isn’t watered down. Far from it…

You have your opinion, and I have mine, and I will stick to that opinion. I’ve been saying watered down for a few years now. I could care less how many guys can throw 95mph. Ort can throw 95 mph. Just look at the talent level between the 2018 Red Sox, and what is on the field today. The Yankees also are an old broken down team getting older everyday. 60’s, 70’s, 80’s take your pick had better teams than today. We’ve gone over this before, and nothing changed then, and nothing will change now. I’m sticking to my opinion.

[moonslav59]

You can argue this one both ways. Yes, they have handed out some big new contracts. On the other hand, they have managed to trim the annual payroll cost from where it was in 2018-2019.

 

They're spending on the one hand and shedding payroll on the other. Your numbers tend not to include the shedding part.

 

The mass shedding was immediately after 2019. My point was about recent signings, which included the Devers extension that has not kicked in, yet.

 

We have spent a lot since the Story signing, and that was the only period of time I was talking about.

 

Compare from the start of 2019 to March 2022 (nearly 3 years) to March 2022 to the start of 2023 (about 13 months) and you'll see the uptick, even without counting the Devers deal, but I was counting Devers and total money spent, not AAV. Or, look at spending 2020-2021 vs 2022-2023 and there is an uptick without Devers new deal counting.

 

If you go by yearly budgets, you have to figure in we are re-setting this year, but after we slashed nearly $60M from the 2019 to 2020 pre-rated budget, here is what we added:

 

CB Tax Numbers

$23M in 2021

$28M more in 2022 ($51M more than 2020 combined)

-$19M from 2022

 

Our Opening Day budget for 2020 was $74M -4th ranked (Not pro-rated,) and we ended the season at $64M (13th ranked). My rough prorated numbers make those about:

 

$185M Opening Day

$160M End of Year

 

Changes:

Opening Day

-41M 2020

-5M more in 2021

+26M in 2022

-25M in 2023 This shows just a $1M boost from 2021, but that is due to the reset.

 

EOY

-68M 2020 (from EOY 2019)

+27M 2021

+20M more in 2022 (47M combined) This clearly shows we have been spending more since the start of 2020, and actually since the trade deadline of 2019, where no money was added. $186.2 is about the same as 2021's $187.4 but is $31M less than 2022's tax line crossing number.

 

Again, counting the Devers deal, we have started spending more since 2020, and most of that is from 2022 to 2023.

 

Cots has our projected EOY budget at $186.2M, right now, which is $5M more than the opening day budget and we may spend $11M more to stay under the tax line at the trade deadline. (We may also sell and see that number go down.)

[moonslav59]

The need is more for good depth -- so they don't have to sign and then cut questionable characters in the same week (like the past week) when inevitable injuries overlap with cramped schedules. I also said "sign or trade for two good veteran pitchers to front the rotation." The more the merrier. .

 

As for Atlanta's starters, Strider may not be an "ace" yet, but he's exactly the type of pitcher to boost a poor defensive team, since he leads the majors in strikeouts and K/9 IP... infielders can't make as many throwing errors when they don't touch the ball (except maybe on around-the-horn, after punch-outs).

 

While I have lauded Bloom's depth building, and even thought our pitching depth (including the minors) was greatly improved, we can't touch a team like the Astros, who lost 3 of their starting 5 and still have this...

2.27 Valdez

2.90 Javier

3.35 Hunter Brown

3.42 JP France

4.01 Brandon Bielak

 

BAL may not have a proven ace, but Tyler Wells is quickly becoming one.

3.20 Wells

3.90 Gibson

3.90 K Bradish

4.74 D Kremer

(Their 5th starter has sucked- Cole Irvin 7.66 & G Rodriguez 7.35)

 

Bryce Elder is pitching like an ace for ATL

2.69 Edler

2.08 Fried (on 60 day IL after 5 starts)

3.60 Morton

4.12 Strider

4.57 Shuster

 

We may shrug at 4.57, but here are our ERAs by order of most GS'd:

5.05 Houck

4.58 Sale (on 60 day IL)

3.78 Bello

6.75 Kluber (demoted to pen)

5.40 Pivetta (demoted to pen)

 

Not top 5 in GS:

4.38 Whitlock

3.09 Paxton

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Do you honestly think they should sell?

 

If the trade deadline was today, it's a tough call.

 

We have about $10M to add to the budget and still reset. We could buy a lot of pro-rated salary for that and be buyers.

 

We could trade 1-2 year remaining players and pay nall or most of their salaries to improve the return and widen the trade pool, while still resetting.

 

We could buy and sell, like last year.

 

Tough call. Had you asked me 3 days ago, I'd be more inclined to say "sell."

 

[moonslav59]

my point is that our payroll has gone from around #3 in MLB to now #11. Spending 10 million on a player nowadays is not really that much. Most of the players we let walk { JD, Eovaldi, Wacha} are doing better elsewhere than the guys Bloom brought in as replacements.

 

We are resetting, this year. If we spent $10M more and got just below the line, we'd be about 8th or 9th. That is the real reason we have dropped.

 

Yes, the reset is just an excuse that does not take away the fact that we are spending less than before, but it is something that has been done often, since JH took over. JH has never gone over 3 years in a row, and going over 2 years in a row, under the newer systems is not a frequent thing, either.

 

If we don't spend big, this coming winter, I will feel like you do, now.

[notin]

You have your opinion, and I have mine, and I will stick to that opinion. I’ve been saying watered down for a few years now. I could care less how many guys can throw 95mph. Ort can throw 95 mph. Just look at the talent level between the 2018 Red Sox, and what is on the field today. The Yankees also are an old broken down team getting older everyday. 60’s, 70’s, 80’s take your pick had better teams than today. We’ve gone over this before, and nothing changed then, and nothing will change now. I’m sticking to my opinion.

 

It’s not just my opinion; I was paraphrasing Lou Merloni.

 

If your evidence that the Red Sox are worse now than the 2018 team, that’s going to need a few thousand supports just to be upgraded to flimsy. Heck if you’re comparing any individual team from the past, that doesn’t prove a thing. If the 2022 A’s suited up against the 1979 Yankees, they’d crush them. Players are more athletic today, and more experienced in MLB than those teams in the past…

[moonslav59]

For the first month of the season the Sox had one of the best offenses in baseball but couldn’t pitch to save their life.

 

Ironically the script has flipped. The staff is 6th in MLB in era the past month. 5th in average and 4th in obp allowed.

 

That’s crazy. The one constant is the defense sucks. You kind of have to hope they can just pitch and hit at the same time, If they can ever do that this Sox team will be one of the most potent teams in all of mlb.

 

The only real way to improve this team is to shore up the defense. Hypothetically, that should happen with a healthy Chung, and Story back.

 

Isn't hoping the offense returns and the pitching stays like it has, recently a more likely winning combination?

 

To vastly improve the D would mean a few trades that would likely hurt the O.

 

To me, our best hope is that these things happen:

 

The offense hits nearly as well as it did in April, for the rest of the season. (Not a big ask)

The pitching continues to pitch like it has in June and for some of May. (A bigger ask, but not a huge one, and I'm not even factoring in a possible Sale return.)

The D improves slightly by these things occuring:

1. No Kike at SS (huge boost and not even an ask.)

2. Story returns at SS (or even 2B)

3. Duvall plays more LF and Yoshida less.

4. Kike/Arroyo play more 2B than Valdez did.

5. Kike/Duran play more CF than Duvall/Refsnyder did earlier.

6. Casas becomes the defender we thought he was or just does better as time goes by.

7. McGuire/Wong move up the learning curve and improve.

 

Are any of these things big asks or something we clearly cannot expect?

[moonslav59]

It’s not just my opinion; I was paraphrasing Lou Merloni.

 

If your evidence that the Red Sox are worse now than the 2018 team, that’s going to need a few thousand supports just to be upgraded to flimsy. Heck if you’re comparing any individual team from the past, that doesn’t prove a thing. If the 2022 A’s suited up against the 1979 Yankees, they’d crush them. Players are more athletic today, and more experienced in MLB than those teams in the past…

 

Balanced means watered down to some.

[Randy Red Sox]

I am not advocating big spending I am simply saying that we do not spend like we did. Whether that is good or bad is simply a matter of opinion. However if Bloom told John Henry 4 years ago when he was hired it would take 5 years { a minimum at this point} to turn around what was already a good team do you think he would have hired him? The facts are in my opinion that Bloom has done a poor to terrible job so far. Yes he may have bolstered the farm system somewhat but none has been done to add top pitching prospects which Tampa is well known for. Red Sox have not developed top SP other than possibly Bello who is not a Bloom guy.

We are resetting, this year. If we spent $10M more and got just below the line, we'd be about 8th or 9th. That is the real reason we have dropped.

 

Yes, the reset is just an excuse that does not take away the fact that we are spending less than before, but it is something that has been done often, since JH took over. JH has never gone over 3 years in a row, and going over 2 years in a row, under the newer systems is not a frequent thing, either.

 

If we don't spend big, this coming winter, I will feel like you do, now.

[Bellhorn04]

I am not advocating big spending I am simply saying that we do not spend like we did. Whether that is good or bad is simply a matter of opinion. However if Bloom told John Henry 4 years ago when he was hired it would take 5 years { a minimum at this point} to turn around what was already a good team do you think he would have hired him? The facts are in my opinion that Bloom has done a poor to terrible job so far. Yes he may have bolstered the farm system somewhat but none has been done to add top pitching prospects which Tampa is well known for. Red Sox have not developed top SP other than possibly Bello who is not a Bloom guy.

 

The team that Bloom inherited was coming off an 84 win season and had a lot of expensive players and a very depleted farm.

 

We can certainly question a lot of his moves, but he did inherit a lot of issues.

[Old Red]

Balanced means watered down to some.

 

And balanced to some mean better.

[Old Red]

It’s not just my opinion; I was paraphrasing Lou Merloni.

 

If your evidence that the Red Sox are worse now than the 2018 team, that’s going to need a few thousand supports just to be upgraded to flimsy. Heck if you’re comparing any individual team from the past, that doesn’t prove a thing. If the 2022 A’s suited up against the 1979 Yankees, they’d crush them. Players are more athletic today, and more experienced in MLB than those teams in the past…

 

Athletic today yes, but that doesn’t mean they would beat teams from the past. Baltimore may have better record the last few years, but is it because they are that much better, or is it because the teams above them have dropped off. It’s not just baseball as I’ve said other sports as well have watered down. The Bird led teams of the 80’s, and the Magic led teams of the 80’s I believe would destroy teams of today. You, and Lou can share your opinion, but it doesn’t change mine.