A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

Athletic today yes, but that doesn’t mean they would beat teams from the past. Baltimore may have better record the last few years, but is it because they are that much better, or is it because the teams above them have dropped off. It’s not just baseball as I’ve said other sports as well have watered down. The Bird led teams of the 80’s, and the Magic led teams of the 80’s I believe would destroy teams of today. You, and Lou can share your opinion, but it doesn’t change mine.

 

 

I disagree. Here in Chicago they still revere the 1985 Bears as the Greatest Team Ever. On that team, William “Refrigerator” Perry was considered freakishly large at 325 pounds. Nowadays, I challenge anyone to find a team that doesn’t have at least 4 lineman that size. They also had Hall of Fame DE Richard Dent, who checked in at 265 lbs. Or roughly the same weight as kicker Sebastian Janikowski. (And Dent was the one playing in the Steroid Era.)

 

This is why it’s so hard to compare across eras. Athletes are bigger, faster, stronger and that’s the norm.

 

But there is a massive fallacy in saying the league is watered-down because you liked some team a half a century ago better. The league now has more teams, which can water down talent. But that gets countered by a much larger talent pool. How many Asian players were in the league in the 1970’s? How many Latin American countries had players? Remember how difficult it was for Cuban players to sneak into MLB back then?

 

If you want to repeatedly present the league is “watered down”, don’t be surprised if you repeatedly get challenged for actual evidence.

 

And I will be surprised if you ever present any…

Edited June 17, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

The debate about teams from the present vs. teams from the past seems a bit pointless to me. There are changes that come from technological "advances" and from cultural influences etc. Whatever era it is, you're seeing the best baseball players.

 

As for basketball, those Bird and Magic teams were great, obviously, as were the Jordan teams. LeBron and Steph Curry are pretty damn good too and have multiple rings. They would have been good back then too.

[notin]

I am not advocating big spending I am simply saying that we do not spend like we did. Whether that is good or bad is simply a matter of opinion. However if Bloom told John Henry 4 years ago when he was hired it would take 5 years { a minimum at this point} to turn around what was already a good team do you think he would have hired him? The facts are in my opinion that Bloom has done a poor to terrible job so far. Yes he may have bolstered the farm system somewhat but none has been done to add top pitching prospects which Tampa is well known for. Red Sox have not developed top SP other than possibly Bello who is not a Bloom guy.

 

Actually Tampa doesn’t really develop a lot of pitching prospects internally. On their current roster, McClanahan, Taj Bradley and Yonny Chirinos came up through the ranks. Maybe a lesser bullpen arm. But nearly all the remaining ones were acquired via trade or minor league free agency/waiver claims out of other organizations. They acquired Jason Adam, Beeks, Faucher, Pache, Fairbanks, Rasmussen, Kevin Kelly, Trevor Kelley, Jeffrey Springs, etc.

 

In fact from these names, Boston (Beeks, Kelley) drafted as many Rays pitchers (McClanahan, Bradley) as the Rays did. Of course I probably left off a RP from the Tampa system who to date has minimal playing time.

 

Also Bloom hasn’t drafted any MLB pitchers yet, but he also only started drafting 3 years ago, so this isn’t too surprising. Shane Drohan was drafted in 2020 and has already reached AAA, which is encouraging…

Edited June 17, 2023 by notin

[Old Red]

The debate about teams from the present vs. teams from the past seems a bit pointless to me. There are changes that come from technological "advances" and from cultural influences etc. Whatever era it is, you're seeing the best baseball players.

 

As for basketball, those Bird and Magic teams were great, obviously, as were the Jordan teams. LeBron and Steph Curry are pretty damn good too and have multiple rings. They would have been good back then too.

 

Bird, and Magic had to battle against each other. Jordan wouldn’t have won so much if he would have gone against either team. Lebron, and Steph could have played in any era, but their teams wouldn’t have been so successful in the 80’s. The three time champion A’s, and the Big Red Machine of the 70’s would have been good in any era too as would Drysdale, Koufax, and Gibson. Just my opinion as is the watered down stigma.

[Old Red]

I disagree. Here in Chicago they still revere the 1985 Bears as the Greatest Team Ever. On that team, William “Refrigerator” Perry was considered freakishly large at 325 pounds. Nowadays, I challenge anyone to find a team that doesn’t have at least 4 lineman that size. They also had Hall of Fame DE Richard Dent, who checked in at 265 lbs. Or roughly the same weight as kicker Sebastian Janikowski. (And Dent was the one playing in the Steroid Era.)

 

This is why it’s so hard to compare across eras. Athletes are bigger, faster, stronger and that’s the norm.

 

But there is a massive fallacy in saying the league is watered-down because you liked some team a half a century ago better. The league now has more teams, which can water down talent. But that gets countered by a much larger talent pool. How many Asian players were in the league in the 1970’s? How many Latin American countries had players? Remember how difficult it was for Cuban players to sneak into MLB back then?

 

If you want to repeatedly present the league is “watered down”, don’t be surprised if you repeatedly get challenged for actual evidence.

 

And I will be surprised if you ever present any…

 

Football may be different, and I don’t think the Packers of the 60’s would be as good today where players are a lot bigger, and stronger, and no I don’t think the Bears were one of the best teams ever.

Baseball is different, and you ought to know by now that getting challenged doesn’t bother me at all on an opinion, and that opinion won’t change no matter how many times, and how long you try. We disagree, and always will.

[moonslav59]

I am not advocating big spending I am simply saying that we do not spend like we did. Whether that is good or bad is simply a matter of opinion. However if Bloom told John Henry 4 years ago when he was hired it would take 5 years { a minimum at this point} to turn around what was already a good team do you think he would have hired him? The facts are in my opinion that Bloom has done a poor to terrible job so far. Yes he may have bolstered the farm system somewhat but none has been done to add top pitching prospects which Tampa is well known for. Red Sox have not developed top SP other than possibly Bello who is not a Bloom guy.

 

It's "the spend like we did" comment that is not so clear cut.

 

No, we are not spending like 2018 or 2019, and we have not been 11th or 12th in spending since JH took over. Your point has merit, for sure, but we have reset many times- only to go on to spend larger again, afterwards.

 

We are spending more the 14+ seasons before 2015, perhaps even if adjusting for inflation.

 

The not being below 6th in opening day or EOY spending until the last 3-4 seasons is certainly factual. To me, it is more out of other teams suddenly spending like maniacs, than us spending less than before, but us spending less is a factor, for sure.

 

Some sort of tax began in 1997. We paid a tax in 1998 and a tiny one in 1999 ($21K.)

 

We then stayed under for 4 years, including 2 JH seasons.

 

We went over for 4 straight (2004-2007)

 

Under for 2.

 

Over for 2.

 

Under for 3.

 

Over for 2.

 

Under for 1

 

Over for 2.

 

Under for 2.

 

Over for 1 (2022 and not by much)

 

Looks like under for 2023

 

A clear pattern developed after 2008.

 

No 3 straight overs and only 1 under for 3 straight ('12-'14 surrounding a ring season!)

 

I happen to think we will spend, again. We may spend some at the deadline and get us up to 8th place in the spending rankings.

 

In terms of spending on actual active players- not player on the IL or paying players to play elsewhere, we are not much different from other years.

 

No paying ERod to sit out 2020

No Half-Price

No Rusney

No Pedey

No Pablito & HRam

No $3.9M Dodger payment for Crawford

I probably forgot others.

 

We even got something from Sale, finally.

 

We have one more year to pay Sale, and the budget looks clear of deadwood, unless Story continues to stay on the IL.

 

I expect more spending in 2024 and almost all of it on active 26 man roster players, except for Sale, who drops off after '24 and was not a Bloom signing.

[moonslav59]

The debate about teams from the present vs. teams from the past seems a bit pointless to me. There are changes that come from technological "advances" and from cultural influences etc. Whatever era it is, you're seeing the best baseball players.

 

As for basketball, those Bird and Magic teams were great, obviously, as were the Jordan teams. LeBron and Steph Curry are pretty damn good too and have multiple rings. They would have been good back then too.

 

I think we all enjoy watching two great teams play each other, and maybe some prefer more balanced leagues than some from the past, but those are separate issues than saying spreading the talent out more means the talent level is more or less than before- or "watered down." If watered down means spread out but not less talented, then maybe that's where we are trending towards. If you want to say the talent level is declining, I'm not sure I'd agree, and notin's Merloni quote sure sound like the opposite is happening.

 

IMO, a balanced talent pool makes for better competition and more teams alive, each year. That is a huge plus, but not having a few stacked teams playing each other every so often, including the playoffs is a minus, in some ways.

 

The move towards a more balanced schedule might be one reason we are seeing more teams near playoff contention than the previous norm, and my guess is, MLB wants this.

 

As of now, only 2 teams are more than 11 games behind a playoff slot with 90+ games to go. More amazingly, only 7 teams are more than 6.5 GB a WC slot! 23 teams are in the race, by the numbers. (18 teams are 4 GB or under.)

 

On June 17, 2022...

13 teams were 4 GB or more (1 more than 2023)

11 teams were 6.5 or more GB (4 more than 2023)

6 teams are 11 games or more behind (4 more than '23)

 

What a difference, one year makes.

 

 

 

[dgalehouse]

Athletes, like everyone else, have to be evaluated in the era they lived/played. Times change. It is generally said that today's athletes are bigger , stronger and faster. For a number of reasons , that is mostly true. But they are not necessarily always better. It is not really possible or fair to compare athletes from different eras. I think a Muhammad Ali would make today's heavyweight giants look like bumbling fools in the ring. But we will never know.

[moonslav59]

Athletes, like everyone else, have to be evaluated in the era they lived/played. Times change. It is generally said that today's athletes are bigger , stronger and faster. For a number of reasons , that is mostly true. But they are not necessarily always better. It is not really possible or fair to compare athletes from different eras. I think a Muhammad Ali would make today's heavyweight giants look like bumbling fools in the ring. But we will never know.

 

Yes, bigger and stronger (and I'll add faster) is not always "better," maybe more so in baseball than football and basketball.

 

Pedro is smaller than most pitchers, today. I'll stack him up vs anyone- past or present.

 

The word "watered down" has a lower connotation than "balanced." Usually, it is associated with a reduction in overall value or talent level. Many felt that happened when expansion occurred, which seems logical, but we haven't had that in a long time. This era in baseball seems like we are seeing more and more younger studs than in the past, but that is based on eye testing, in my case.

 

I don't think the overall talent level is lower, now than 2-5 years ago, 6-10 years ago or any time frame you want to use, but it does seem more spread out. Several more teams have begun spending big, so that group has grown. Other teams seem to be more stingy about trading away top prospects for rentals or 1-2 year controlled players. It still happens, but it seems like less often, to me.

 

We still have some real sucky teams, and they are not new names, although OAK finished first in the AL West in 2020 and second the two years before.

 

One would think this is good for baseball, overall. We'll see.

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by moonslav59

[Nick]

It's tough knowing Sox has $45M on IL and another $10M wasted on a starter.

 

Sox would have been better off writing Kluber a $10M check and told him to stay home. That's how bad the signing was.

 

That's how bad Bloom's decision was to sign Kluber.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

Athletes, like everyone else, have to be evaluated in the era they lived/played. Times change. It is generally said that today's athletes are bigger , stronger and faster. For a number of reasons , that is mostly true. But they are not necessarily always better. It is not really possible or fair to compare athletes from different eras. I think a Muhammad Ali would make today's heavyweight giants look like bumbling fools in the ring. But we will never know.

 

But saying the greatest player/team from 20 years ago or 30 years ago or 50 years ago is better than the greatest today, so therefore the entire league is watered down is not even remotely logical…

[notin]

Yes, bigger and stronger (and I'll add faster) is not always "better," maybe more so in baseball than football and basketball.

 

Pedro is smaller than most pitchers, today. I'll stack him up vs anyone- past or present.

 

The word "watered down" has a lower connotation than "balanced." Usually, it is associated with a reduction in overall value or talent level. Many felt that happened when expansion occurred, which seems logical, but we haven't had that in a long time. This era in baseball seems like we are seeing more and more younger studs than in the past, but that is based on eye testing, in my case.

 

I don't think the overall talent level is lower, now than 2-5 years ago, 6-10 years ago or any time frame you want to use, but it does seem more spread out. Several more teams have begun spending big, so that group has grown. Other teams seem to be more stingy about trading away top prospects for rentals or 1-2 year controlled players. It still happens, but it seems like less often, to me.

 

We still have some real sucky teams, and they are not new names, although OAK finished first in the AL West in 2020 and second the two years before.

 

One would think this is good for baseball, overall. We'll see.

 

 

The point isn’t about whether or not a smaller individual is better/bigger/faster. The point was an entire league is bigger, more athletic, throwing harder and grew up playing lots more baseball. Oh and they come from a larger talent pool, so establishing yourself as one of the best 780 players in the world is more difficult than it was even when the league had 26 teams and only 650 players made it…

[notin]

Yes, bigger and stronger (and I'll add faster) is not always "better," maybe more so in baseball than football and basketball.

 

Pedro is smaller than most pitchers, today. I'll stack him up vs anyone- past or present.

 

The word "watered down" has a lower connotation than "balanced." Usually, it is associated with a reduction in overall value or talent level. Many felt that happened when expansion occurred, which seems logical, but we haven't had that in a long time. This era in baseball seems like we are seeing more and more younger studs than in the past, but that is based on eye testing, in my case.

 

I don't think the overall talent level is lower, now than 2-5 years ago, 6-10 years ago or any time frame you want to use, but it does seem more spread out. Several more teams have begun spending big, so that group has grown. Other teams seem to be more stingy about trading away top prospects for rentals or 1-2 year controlled players. It still happens, but it seems like less often, to me.

 

We still have some real sucky teams, and they are not new names, although OAK finished first in the AL West in 2020 and second the two years before.

 

One would think this is good for baseball, overall. We'll see.

 

Another way to look st it is when Ryan Brasier came up, the thought was that he was a good find because he can throw 95mph. Five years later, he was DFAd because he can only throw 95mph…

[notin]

Athletic today yes, but that doesn’t mean they would beat teams from the past. Baltimore may have better record the last few years, but is it because they are that much better, or is it because the teams above them have dropped off. It’s not just baseball as I’ve said other sports as well have watered down. The Bird led teams of the 80’s, and the Magic led teams of the 80’s I believe would destroy teams of today. You, and Lou can share your opinion, but it doesn’t change mine.

 

Coming from a man who has only ever supported an opinion by citing a former MLB player…

[moonslav59]

Our pitching OPS Against has improved each month:

.769 April

.741 May

.699 June, so far

 

Of our top 10 pitchers by most PAs Against in June, only 1 has an OPSA higher than .785.

 

1.141 Kluber

.785 Winckowski (mostly due to one really bad game)

.778 Crawford (He and Wink carried the staff in April and May)

 

7 of the next 10 are all under .684!

.426 Bernardino

.455 Bello

.545 Paxton

(Pivetta is .554 but is 12th in PAs Against since June 1st)

.572 Jansen

.583 Martin

.682 Houck

.684 Whitlock

 

Last 4 weeks top 13 pitchers by PAs Against (28+)

.407 Bernardino (Has Bloom gotten any credit for this find?)

.438 Martin (WOW!)

.491 Jansen (Rumors of his demise have vanished)

.566 Pivetta (Earning another look in the rotation?)

.582 Bello (Earning more and more respect)

.659 Whitlock (improved greatly from April)

.660 Garza (surprising, to me)

.676 Paxton (Impressive in all but one start)

.685 Houck (Doing better than April-May)

.701 Sale (on IL)

.745 Crawford (regressing to norm?)

.790 Winckowski (Regressing to norm?)

1.112 Kluber (demoted to pen)

 

Not counting Sale, 9 of the top 12 adre at .685 or under!

 

 

[moonslav59]

Our batting OPS has gone in the opposite direction as our pitching OPS Against:

.769 April

.766 May

.748 June

 

Top June OPS (10 players with 26+ PAs)

.991 Turner (3rd in PAs for June)

.858 Devers (2nd)

.822 Casas (5th)

.795 Dugo (1st)

.746 Duran (7th)

.742 Reyes (10th)

.733 Yoshida (4th)

.686 Wong (8th)

.676 Arroyo (9th)

.607 Kike (10th)

 

Last 28 days...

.923 Refsnyder (only 36 PAs)

.849 Yoshida

.830 Turner

.822 Wong

.764 Tapia (gone)

.732 Casas

.717 Dugo

.676 Arroyo (33 PAs)

.670 Devers

.663 Kike

.641 McGuire

.613 Reyes

.545 EValdez

.518 Duran

.467 Duvall (just 25 PAs)

 

 

[moonslav59]

The point isn’t about whether or not a smaller individual is better/bigger/faster. The point was an entire league is bigger, more athletic, throwing harder and grew up playing lots more baseball. Oh and they come from a larger talent pool, so establishing yourself as one of the best 780 players in the world is more difficult than it was even when the league had 26 teams and only 650 players made it…

 

I'm not sure about "playing more baseball," but the rest is spot on.

[moonslav59]

Another way to look st it is when Ryan Brasier came up, the thought was that he was a good find because he can throw 95mph. Five years later, he was DFAd because he can only throw 95mph…

 

Let's be honest, it wasn't the 95 mph thingy.

[moonslav59]

coming from a man who has only ever supported an opinion by citing a former mlb player…

 

lol!

[moonslav59]

Guess who has the 13th best OPS over the past 365 days among players with 550 + PAs? (14th out of 169 batters with 450 PAs)

 

450+

1.118 Judge

.998 Alvarez

.975 Freeman

.953 Ohtani

.910 Altuve

.898 Trout

.892 Y Diaz

.891 Goldschmidt

.883 Arenado

.882 Seager

.879 Betts

.874 Soto

.867 Realmuto

.865 Justin Turner

 

Other notables...

 

35. Schwarber .814

44. Nimmo .804

49. Verdugo .793

50. Devers .793

51. Renfroe .791

59. Suzuki .782

67. Bogey .775

86. T Turner .753

88. JD Martinez .751

91. Swanson .748

101. J Abreu .735

105. Beni .733

124. Bellinger .712

146. Andrus .668

154. Moncada .657

 

[notin]

Let's be honest, it wasn't the 95 mph thingy.

 

It wasn’t. But he did go from a useful velocity to a mundane one without ever slowing down…

[notin]

I'm not sure about "playing more baseball," but the rest is spot on.

 

Yes.

 

According to Lou Merloni, he never touched a baseball until April and was done before July was out. But he is excited about all these year-round travel leagues kids play in…

[moonslav59]

Yes.

 

According to Lou Merloni, he never touched a baseball until April and was done before July was out. But he is excited about all these year-round travel leagues kids play in…

 

He was from New England, so winter baseball is hard to find.

 

I'm not so sure New England kids play year round much more than 30-50+ years ago.

 

Do Latin American kids play more now than before?

[notin]

He was from New England, so winter baseball is hard to find.

 

I'm not so sure New England kids play year round much more than 30-50+ years ago.

 

Do Latin American kids play more now than before?

 

His point is they do. Winter travel ball for baseball (and softball) is played indoors…

[moonslav59]

His point is they do. Winter travel ball for baseball (and softball) is played indoors…

 

How many do this?

[moonslav59]

TOR, LAA, BAL, HOU and even TBR & SEA lost, today.

 

The Yanks and Sox gained a half game on everyone.

 

NYY in the 2nd WC slot and HOU now tied with LAA for the 3rd and final slot.

-0.0 LAA

-0.5 TOR

-3.5 BOS

-4.0 SEA

 

[cp176]

How many do this?

 

I think that you would be surprised. I'm starting to be educated with respect to the influence AAU sports is having today. I think that there will always be a debate as to how much of one thing is good or bad.

[notin]

How many do this?

 

Lou Merloni thinks enough to make an impact…

[notin]

I think that you would be surprised. I'm starting to be educated with respect to the influence AAU sports is having today. I think that there will always be a debate as to how much of one thing is good or bad.

 

A lot of parents view athletic scholarships as an alternative to tuition…

[illinoisredsox]

A lot of parents view athletic scholarships as an alternative to tuition…

 

Unfortunately true. No amount of training or coaching a playing can teach a kid to throw a ball 90+ mph or run a 4.0 40. Your body has the ability to do it or it doesn’t. You might improve a little through coaching, but if it’s not in you …

 

The amount of money some parents spend on coaching and travel, etc. is ridiculous. Save that up and you'd probably have a couple years tuition.