A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

I'm ok with the Rays running away with it.

 

I want them to own Toronto, NY and the Orioles.

 

Maybe we can close the gap on the Orioles.

 

They start a 3 game series with the Orioles.

[Nick]

I am also excited to see Paxton. You never know. Maybe he's very good when healthy.

 

It appears to me we'll need all 7 starters to plug the holes for minor injuries.

[Nick]

Losing Kutter is hurting our pen. When we used both Martin and Winckowski in the same game, it just felt we were thin the following game.

 

When will the other lefty be available?

 

We'll still need reinforcements in July. Unless we have 5 dependable starters and dispatch the other two to the pen.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

Worthless MLB's power ranking has the Sox at #6.

 

Top 4 out of 6 comes from AL East.

[moonslav59]

Losing Kutter is hurting our pen. When we used both Martin and Winckowski in the same game, it just felt we were thin the following game.

 

When will the other lefty be available?

 

We'll still need reinforcements in July. Unless we have 5 dependable starters and dispatch the other two to the pen.

 

Joely Rodriguez is pitching in AAA and should be ready, at some point.

[moonslav59]

Worthless MLB's power ranking has the Sox at #6.

 

Top 4 out of 6 comes from AL East.

 

We were 15th, a few days ago, behind TOR who we had passed by then.

[Nick]

Anyone have our rotation schedule for this week? Edited May 8, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Anyone have our rotation schedule for this week?

 

Baseball Probable Pitchers | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

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The official probable pitchers page of Major League Baseball including up to the minute stats, preview and ticket information.

 

TUE: Pivetta v Charlie Morton

 

WED: Bello v TBD

 

THU: Off

 

FRI: TBD v TBD (maybe Paxton)

[Nick]

Interesting regression analysis on Overthemonster site. They expect Verdugo to have his career year but the implication is he's peaked.

 

If he played for the Rays, he would be traded this winter.(my opinion)

[Nick]

Baseball Probable Pitchers | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The official probable pitchers page of Major League Baseball including up to the minute stats, preview and ticket information.

 

TUE: Pivetta v Charlie Morton

 

WED: Bello v TBD

 

THU: Off

 

FRI: TBD v TBD (maybe Paxton)

 

Hopefylly St Louis stays down.

[Nick]

Baseball Probable Pitchers | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The official probable pitchers page of Major League Baseball including up to the minute stats, preview and ticket information.

 

TUE: Pivetta v Charlie Morton

 

WED: Bello v TBD

 

THU: Off

 

FRI: TBD v TBD (maybe Paxton)

 

Hopefylly St Louis stays down.

[moonslav59]

Hopefylly St Louis stays down.

 

We have 2 days off in 4 days, so that really messes with rotation. I wish the days were spread out better.

 

The order should be:

Pivetta (+1 day rest) ATL

Bello (+1) ATL

Off

Sale (+2) STL

Kluber (+2) STL

Houck (+2) STL

 

Paxton is supposed to pitch, soon. We could bump Sale up to Bello's slot, if we did not want to give him any extra rest.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Good sign:

 

fWAR Rankings for team SP'er:

 

Since April 20th:

13. Boston 1.2 fWAR (5.05 ERA)

 

Since April 30th:

6. Boston 0.9 fWAR (3.62 ERA)

 

Season

24. DET 0.9

25. BAL 0.8

26. BOS 0.8

27. COL 0.6

28. KCR 0.6

29. NYM -0.9

30. OAK -1.4

Edited May 9, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

4/20>>>

3.68 Bello

3.86 Kluber

4.67 Sale

5.40 Pivetta

11.25 Whitlock

 

4/30>>>

2.92 Sale

3.60 Bello

4.50 Pivetta

5.23 Kluber

6.94 Houck

 

[moonslav59]

We are currently 7th in MLB winning %, having just passed PIT.

 

The concern is that two teams that look better than us on paper are behind us (NYY -2.5 and HOU -3.0 GB.)

 

I think we can catch TOR and BAL and maybe MIN and TEX, but they are not WC teams, right now.

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs had a nice article on Connor Wong today.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/connor-wong-is-popping-and-blocking/

[Old Red]

Jake Streakman working on a deal to join the Rays.

[mvp 78]

Jake Streakman working on a deal to join the Rays.

 

If they fix him, I'm going to quit watching baseball.

[Old Red]

If they fix him, I'm going to quit watching baseball.

 

If anyone can fix him the Rays can.

[Nick]

All Left Handed Core Group Lineup.

 

C.. McGuire

1B Casas

2B Valdez

3B Devers

SS Hamilton

LF Tapia

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

DH Yoshida

 

Utl Fitzgerald

Utl Abreau

Utl Sogard

Utl Allen

Utl Palka

Utl Goodrum

 

Bunch of switch hitter in AAA (Sogard, Allen and Goodrum)

 

Geez, we're only Hamilton away from all lefty lineup RIGHT NOW.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

Early look at 2024 money.....

 

I see $46M available AFTER paying Devers pay increase and not accounting for arbitration raises, big ones being Verdugo and Pivetta.

 

We'll need to replace Kike, Duvall and Tapia in the field. We'll need to replace Kluber, Paxton and Brasier essentially in our pitching department.

 

Assuming Casas works out at 1B and Duran becomes a replacement in CF, we'll have every position covered except for SS. I'm hoping Mondesi shows us something and returns at a cheaper salary than Kike.

 

We'll have Chang, Refsnysder, Valdez, Hamilton, Abreau, Dalbec and maybe bring back Tapia (I like his athleticism) for the utility role.

 

We can go with Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Houck, Whitlock and Kutter in the rotation.

 

Assume we eat up $6M of $46M for arbitration raises (it's probably more than that), how would you spend $40M to make the team better?

Edited May 9, 2023 by Nick

[Hugh2]

Early look at 2024 money.....

 

I see $46M available AFTER paying Devers pay increase and not accounting for arbitration raises, big ones being Verdugo and Pivetta.

 

We'll need to replace Kike, Duvall and Tapia in the field. We'll need to replace Kluber, Paxton and Brasier essentially in our pitching department.

 

Assuming Casas works out at 1B and Duran becomes a replacement in CF, we'll have every position covered except for SS. I'm hoping Mondesi shows us something and returns at a cheaper salary than Kike.

 

We'll have Chang, Refsnysder, Valdez, Hamilton, Abreau, Dalbec and maybe bring back Tapia (I like his athleticism) for the utility role.

 

We can go with Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Houck, Whitlock and Kutter in the rotation.

 

Assume we eat up $6M of $46M for arbitration raises (it's probably more than that), how would you spend $40M to make the team better?

 

If you want to assume they go over the luxury tax you can look at the amount of money coming off the books In 2025/2026.

 

From 24-25 dollars committed goes down from 116 to 57 million. If my theory is correct the Sox are set up for a massive commitment over the next two years if they so chose

[moonslav59]

Yoshida and advanced metrics...

 

Keys to Masataka Yoshida's turnaround, as measured by Statcast

WWW.MLB.COM

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After the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90 million contract this offseason -- representing the largest contract ever awarded to a position player coming from Japan to MLB -- opinion about the transaction outside of Boston was mixed at best. After all, Yoshida was small (5-foot-8, 176

 

Paxton to pitch Friday...

 

Red Sox injuries and roster moves

WWW.MLB.COM

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LATEST NEWS

 

Devers joins select Sox crowd as fastest to 150 HRs...

 

Rafael Devers reaches 150 career home runs

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This story was excerpted from Ian Browne’s Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Revisiting the pitcher-catcher tandems: it looks like we are settling into a binky system, but some are maybe still in flux.

 

OPS Against/ The Starters:

 

Pivetta

.759 w Wong (69)

.858 w McGuire (65)

 

 

After last night

 

Pivetta

.759 w Wong (69)

.922 w McGuire (89)

 

Not much binkyness going on there, either...maybe Wong will have to catch Pivetta, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Sorry that my McGuire-phobia is acting up again, but man, our starters have horrific numbers throwing to him. (The only shreds of hope now appear to be with Kluber.)

 

Is it bad game preparation or something? Or is it just that our starters are really that bad.

[Bellhorn04]

Number of wins when we score:

 

4 runs or less - 2

3 runs or less - 1

[moonslav59]

Sorry that my McGuire-phobia is acting up again, but man, our starters have horrific numbers throwing to him. (The only shreds of hope now appear to be with Kluber.)

 

Is it bad game preparation or something? Or is it just that our starters are really that bad.

 

McGuire has not caught Houck and Whitlock, this year- two of our best ERA guys from 2021-2022. How are they doing?

 

McGuire has gotten better out of Wink and Crawford/ Wong better from Sale and Pivetta.

[Bellhorn04]

McGuire has not caught Houck and Whitlock, this year- two of our best ERA guys from 2021-2022. How are they doing?

 

McGuire has gotten better out of Wink and Crawford/ Wong better from Sale and Pivetta.

 

The disturbing thing is that McGuire has horrible numbers with every starter he's caught. The good numbers with Crawford came after he went to the pen.

 

Obviously most of it is a reflection on our starters.

[notin]

Number of wins when we score:

 

4 runs or less - 2

3 runs or less - 1

 

I suppose this is meant to target the pitching. Although sometimes we score 3 or less and lose, like the 1-0 loss to Tampa. The issue that day wasn’t pitching.

 

Their SP has been pretty weak. But it’s also actually improving. We started the season with 3 SP on the IL; next week (hopefully) another comes back. Sale has improved nicely, something that was anticipated by those who understood pitchers cannot simply pick the ball up after a multiyear hiatus and continue as if nothing happened. Even Kluber looks better recently, although looking worse should result in a DFA.

 

I won’t call this starting pitching “good” and yes, it’s the big weakness. But it is slowly improving and might someday reach the level of “adequate”…

[notin]

The disturbing thing is that McGuire has horrible numbers with every starter he's caught. The good numbers with Crawford came after he went to the pen.

 

Obviously most of it is a reflection on our starters.

 

I don’t think the problem is McGuire. Wong is certainly the better defensive catcher, but that doesn’t make McGuire the problem…