A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

Duran finally has enough PA’s for Statcast percentiles. Lots of red!

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jarren-duran-680776?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[moonslav59]

My glass is always half full, and I would say Chang has been the best SS we’ve had so far this year, and that 7-6 could have been worse without his D. I’m also pretty sure the team would still be rolling along today if he was still the SS.

 

Like I said before, you have been a beacon of light about the Sox since I have known you.

[Nick]

I was always high on Valdez. The guy hit very well for two years in the minors, and kills RHPs. I knew he was not good on D, but figured he could platoon 2B, DH or maybe 1B/LF, someday.

 

I didn't expect us to be praising him in May.

 

I was higher on Wink than others, before this year, but that doesn't matter.

 

Crawford surprised me.

 

I was really down on Wink.

 

The bottom line is that we are beginning to see the core group develop in terms of positional players.

 

My guess is that our pen will be fine as long as we have a stud as a closer going forward. We know how much it costs to fill that critical position. We finally have a good one.

 

We think we'll know better by July what's needed in our starting rotation.

 

Right now I'm rooting for Casas. He maybe one of our last pieces on the field.

 

Lastly Kike should be a utility player when everyone returns, including Story. But $10M is pretty steep for a non starter.

Edited May 6, 2023 by Nick

[Maxbialystock]

Teams with big attendance feel the pressure to keep winning and the money flowing in. They also have the money because they have the attendance because they’re in larger markets. It works both ways.

 

If the Sox keep winning, they will be sold out. I believe that.

 

Think of it like this. Considered how they’ve played the last few weeks are you more or less likely to go to a game right now compared towards your feelings on the team a few months ago?

 

I know I am.

 

I agree that small market clubs always have a problem with attendance, but, even given that, the Rays stand out as the consummate team with ridiculously low attendance.

 

At the upper end, big market clubs, they will probably always do pretty well with attendance.

 

As for the Red Sox, I'm less sure. For example, their average attendance in 2017 was 36,029. The next season, 2018, probably the best Sox team ever fielded with 108 wins, the attendance was 35,747. It should have been easily over 37,000.

 

This year I'm hoping the low attendance, 30,763, is the result of really nasty weather. Last year it was 32,408 (for the season) even though at this point last season the Sox were 10-17.

[moonslav59]

If Sale and Paxton are both healthy, the Sox could and should be in the postseason hunt. However, as conditional statements go, I think that might be on par with “if I just flap my arms hard enough”…

 

It's hard to know if a 100% healthy Paxton is equal to the Paxton from several years ago.

 

We can only hope.

[moonslav59]

I was really down on Wink.

 

The bottom line is that we are beginning to see the core group develop in terms of positional players.

 

My guess is that our pen will be fine as long as we have a stud as a closer going forward. We know how much it costs to fill that critical position. We finally have a good one.

 

We think we'll know better by July what's needed in our starting rotation.

 

Right now I'm rooting for Casas. He maybe one of our last pieces on the field.

 

Lastly Kike should be a utility player when everyone returns, including Story. But $10M is pretty steep for a non starter.

 

I'm not egttinng how a 3 game hot streak by Arroyo jumps him over Kike at 2B, or are you putting Mondesi over Kike?

[moonslav59]

I agree that small market clubs always have a problem with attendance, but, even given that, the Rays stand out as the consummate team with ridiculously low attendance.

 

At the upper end, big market clubs, they will probably always do pretty well with attendance.

 

As for the Red Sox, I'm less sure. For example, their average attendance in 2017 was 36,029. The next season, 2018, probably the best Sox team ever fielded with 108 wins, the attendance was 35,747. It should have been easily over 37,000.

 

This year I'm hoping the low attendance, 30,763, is the result of really nasty weather. Last year it was 32,408 (for the season) even though at this point last season the Sox were 10-17.

 

It's too early to draw definitive judgments. Only 1/5th of the season has been played. It is interesting to break down the leaders into groups:

 

TBR (28th in spending): the quintessential spread the meager wealth out as evenly as possible. Strong farm, strong player development, great scouts that find under the radar ML talent at lower costs.

 

BAL (29th in spending): spent years going cheap and stockpiling high draft picks on the farm. Those kids are maturing before our eyes,

 

ATL (8th in spending): locks up their talent early at discount rates. Strong farm. Loses top talent, often.

 

PIT (27th in spending): the real shocker, here. May not keep this up.

 

BOS (14th): accused of going small market.

[Nick]

I'm not egttinng how a 3 game hot streak by Arroyo jumps him over Kike at 2B, or are you putting Mondesi over Kike?

 

Whenever I speak of 'core" group I am thinking long term/team control.

 

Story will come back in 2024. Kike maybe at 2B/SS in 2023 but I don't see it long term.

 

Otherwise Bloom would have given him more tham one year.

 

I expect him to be gone and playing elsewhere in 2024. We can use his money elsewhere.

 

If nothing else we know that Chang is better defensively at short.

 

I do want to see Mondesi play short this year.

 

Of course I will be rooting for Kike.

[Nick]

When current roster is made up entirely of 'core group' then I know we've arrived.

 

Not there yet but we're getting close.

 

I also get it that there will always be short term deals. I call them place holders.

[notin]

Let me restate my thesis as simply as possible. I think the Rays have proven that big salaries aren't necessary to build a truly superb MLB team.

 

On the other hand, big salaries do seem to affect attendance favorably.

 

Try this on for size. Last year at this time the Sox were unbelievable losers, but the current Sox are 20-14. But which team had the better attendance? Last year's. They also had Bogey and, for 94 games, Trevor Story.

 

 

Or… teams that spend lots of money do so because they have good attendance to support it. Maybe the money comes before the spending…

[Nick]

When current roster is made up entirely of 'corevgroup' then I know we"ve attived.

 

Not there yet but we're getting close.

 

I also get it that there will always be short term deals. I call them place holders.

[Nick]

Is this the same German that we gave back to the Yankees?

 

He started for the Yankees going 5 innings and 80 pitches vs the Rays. Giving up only 2 runs.

 

I guess Bloom thought Brazier and Ort had bigger upside.

[notin]

Is this the same German that we gave back to the Yankees?

 

He started for the Yankees going 5 innings and 80 pitches vs the Rays. Giving up only 2 runs.

 

I guess Bloom thought Brazier and Ort had bigger upside.

 

Not the same. That was Domingo German pitching for the Yankees today. We had Frank, who we traded to the White Sox, who DFAd him last week…

[Nick]

Not the same. That was Domingo German pitching for the Yankees today. We had Frank, who we traded to the White Sox, who DFAd him last week…

 

Thanks...

[moonslav59]

Whenever I speak of 'core" group I am thinking long term/team control.

 

Story will come back in 2024. Kike maybe at 2B/SS in 2023 but I don't see it long term.

 

Otherwise Bloom would have given him more tham one year.

 

I expect him to be gone and playing elsewhere in 2024. We can use his money elsewhere.

 

If nothing else we know that Chang is better defensively at short.

 

I do want to see Mondesi play short this year.

 

Of course I will be rooting for Kike.

 

Makes sense. There was someone else arguing Arroyo was clearly better than Kike,

 

I would not be so surprised to see Kike back, next year. Cora really likes him. It is Duvall's last year, but if Story will play 2B, and Duran wins the FT CF job, maybe not. If he does not hit well, this year, Kike may not make $10M in 2024.

[moonslav59]

Is this the same German that we gave back to the Yankees?

 

He started for the Yankees going 5 innings and 80 pitches vs the Rays. Giving up only 2 runs.

 

I guess Bloom thought Brazier and Ort had bigger upside.

 

We can get pretty close to that with everyday players, but the staff will take a long time, if ever.

 

I'm not sure we have ever had a successful pitching staff with even half homegrown pitchers.

 

[cp176]

Watching Tapia play and compete over the past few games has been a treat. He is a disrupter who can play the game. He really can get down the line. Bunting, stealing and in general running keeps the pressure on.

[moonslav59]

Watching Tapia play and compete over the past few games has been a treat. He is a disrupter who can play the game. He really can get down the line. Bunting, stealing and in general running keeps the pressure on.

 

I fully agree, and sometimes that sort of play and attitude rubs off on others.

[moonslav59]

At the risk of pissing off Mr. Sunshine, the Sox would be in first place in 4 divisions with their .600 mark.

 

We finally gained a game on TBR and BAL. I'm not sure that has happened all year.

 

The Mighty AL East Standings

-- TBR

-4.5 BAL

-6.5 BOS

-7.0 TOR

-9.0 NYY

 

WC Race (All ALE East teams)

+2.5 BAL

+0.5 BOS

+0.0 TOR

 

-0.5 LAA

-2.0 HOU

-2.0 NYY

(These last two teams may be the teams to beat.)

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

At the risk of pissing off Mr. Sunshine, the Sox would be in first place in 4 divisions with their .600 mark.

 

We finally gained a game on TBR and BAL. I'm not sure that has happened all year.

 

The Mighty AL East Standings

-- TBR

-4.5 BAL

-6.5 BOS

-7.0 TOR

-9.0 NYY

 

WC Race (All ALE East teams)

+2.5 BAL

+0.5 BOS

+0.0 TOR

 

-0.5 LAA

-2.0 HOU

-2.0 NYY

(These last two teams may be the teams to beat.)

 

 

 

Sox have the 4th best W-L record in MLB. Only Tampa, Baltimore, and Atlanta are better.

[moonslav59]

Sox have the 4th best W-L record in MLB. Only Tampa, Baltimore, and Atlanta are better.

 

8 games out of 162 is such a small percent, but it just goes to show you how things can change on a dime.

 

Never give up!

 

(This from the guy who gave up early in 2022.)

[moonslav59]

Sox have the 4th best W-L record in MLB. Only Tampa, Baltimore, and Atlanta are better.

 

Amazing, huh?

 

We are 2.5 games from the 2nd best record.

 

Only 6.5 from the Rays.

[moonslav59]

Kluber's ERA actually dropped after this game.

 

Here are the top IP leaders on the Sox and their current ERAs:

 

35.1 Sale 6.37

34.1 Kluber 6.29

32.0 Houck 5.34

30.2 Pivetta 4.99

 

25.2 Craw 3.51

23.0 Wink 1.57

17.0 Bello 5.71

16.2 Schreb 2.16

16.0 Whitl 6.19

 

15.2 Brasier 5.52

12.1 Ort 7.30

10.2 Jansen 0.84

10.0 Martin 1.80

8.1 Bernard 1.08

7.1 Kelly 3.68

 

K/BB

8.00 Craw

6.00 Bern

5.33 Jansen

4.09 Sale

3.67 Whit

3.60 Wink

3.33 Bleier

3.17 Bello

2.83 Pivetta

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox ERAs and Age

 

34+

0.93 Jansen

1.80 Martin

5.52 Bleier

6.29 Kluber

6.37 Sale

8.04 Brasier

 

30-33

1.08 Bernardino

4.99 Pivetta

7.30 Ort

 

27-29

2.16 Schreiber

3.51 Crawford

3.68 Kelly

5.34 Houck

6.19 Whitlock

 

23-25

1.57 Winck

5.71 Bello

 

Sox pitchers with 3 or more years of team control (counting 2023)

 

Whitlock

Houck

Bello

Drohan

Mata

Walter

Perales, Wikelman, E R-C, Guerrero

 

Winckowski

Crawford

Schreiber

Joely

Bernardino

Kelly

Mills

Fernandez, Murphy, Ortt, Garza

 

 

Edited May 7, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Some astounding recent 2 weeks numbers...

 

OPS

1.351 Yoshida (Give the hottest player a day off!)

1.245 Wong (Mookie who?)

1.145 Arroyo (Kike who?)

1.098 Duran (Butterfly who?)

.942 Dugo (Double Mookie who?)

.860 Valdez (Vazoo?

.801 Ref (Fluke-a-dee who?)

.791 Tapia (love this guy's grit)

.770 Devers (what a bum!)

.697 McGuire (about where our 2023 catcher OPS was.)

.696 Turner (closing in on the second half)

.624 Casas (an actual improvement)

.569 Kike (down and up and down- notice more downs?)

 

Last 28 days

1.061 Duran

1.012 Yoshida

.930 Wong

.905 Verdugo

.875 Valdez

.792 McGuire

 

Over the last 7 days, we have 6 batters over 1.000 and 7 over .978. We have 9 over .800!

1.471 Wong

1.420 Dugo

1.353 Masa

1.295 Arroyo

1.046 McGuire (both catchers over 1.000!!!)

1.012 Duran

 

.979 Valdez

 

.887 Devers

.801 Ref

 

(The rest are under .650. Nobody between .646 and .800.)

 

[moonslav59]

Recent 2 Week ERAs (listed in order of most IP)

4.67 Sale 3 GS

3.86 Kluber 3 GS

3.68 Bello 3GS

5.73 Pivetta 2 GS (5.40 last 3 GS)

7.36 Houck 2 GS (6.00 last 3 GS)

 

1.08 Bernardino

1.35 Winckowski

2.70 Schreiber

2.84 Bleier

1.69 Crawford (IL)

8.31 Bra-Man

2.45 Jansen

33.75 Ort

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Refsnyder's 2-out, 2-run double last night was off a RH pitcher.

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder's 2-out, 2-run double last night was off a RH pitcher.

 

I never remembered you as a tiny sample size sort of poster.

 

What has changed?

[Bellhorn04]

I never remembered you as a tiny sample size sort of poster.

 

What has changed?

 

No, it's just that mvp and notin were talking about Ref being no more than a weak-side platoon guy, so I had to point that out. A lot of my posts here are strictly for fun.

[moonslav59]

No, it's just that mvp and notin were talking about Ref being no more than a weak-side platoon guy, so I had to point that out. A lot of my posts here are strictly for fun.

 

He is a career .623 hitter vs righties and is 32. He could be a late bloomer, but I see him as only an emergency starter vs RHPs. While he did hit .792 v RHPs, last year, I'm not sure he can sustain that going forward.

 

What makes him a platoon on this team is our overabundance of quality LHBs.