A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

I wonder that myself.

 

Hamilton is hiring the cover off the ball right now. Showing power worthy compromising his speed.

 

Soxprospects.com lists his defense as a liability, but sometimes they overstate a player’s shortcomings (an ironic flip from their previous style).

 

So I’m confused, too…

 

The defense issue doesn't hold water, when you think of Dalbec at SS, instead.

[moonslav59]

I will say waiting on Duran looks good so far, especially since his age was the only reason not to give up on him.

 

Dalbec over Hamilton does make sense if they think Hamilton needs to keep playing…

 

Duran turns 27 in September. Some teams might have given up on him, because of his age, but seeing him play so well in AAA, kept the hopes alive, I guess.

 

I will admit, I was never a true believer in Duran.

[Hugh2]

Does Bloom get credit for "not trading away" the right prospects???

[mvp 78]

I agree in theory, but these guys ended up being right on waiting to call up Duran. Maybe Hamilton has a major flaw they know will be exposed at the big level.

 

He certainly seems like he has done what it takes to be the 5th string call-up over Bobby Dee, to me.

 

We already know Dalbec's major flaws: he can't field or hit.

[mvp 78]

I wonder that myself.

 

Hamilton is hiring the cover off the ball right now. Showing power worthy compromising his speed.

 

Soxprospects.com lists his defense as a liability, but sometimes they overstate a player’s shortcomings (an ironic flip from their previous style).

 

So I’m confused, too…

 

Holding onto an option year for later use?

[notin]

The defense issue doesn't hold water, when you think of Dalbec at SS, instead.

 

Most likely they simply didn’t want to being up Hamilton to bench him. But let’s not overreact to the Dalbec/SS situation. After it is entirely possible that even though some fans and John Tomase are not wild about Dalbec at SS, that maybe the Sox saw something in the 67 innings (counting 45 MiLB) in which Dalbec has played SS. Maybe they even looked beyond both errors.

 

If Hamilton’s weak defense was part of why he wasn’t promoted, that’s independent of Dalbec’s promotion. Not like any of us know whether or not Hamilton is even an upgrade at SS over Dalbec…

[mvp 78]

Most likely they simply didn’t want to being up Hamilton to bench him. But let’s not overreact to the Dalbec/SS situation. After it is entirely possible that even though some fans and John Tomase are not wild about Dalbec at SS, that maybe the Sox saw something in the 67 innings (counting 45 MiLB) in which Dalbec has played SS. Maybe they even looked beyond both errors.

 

If Hamilton’s weak defense was part of why he wasn’t promoted, that’s independent of Dalbec’s promotion. Not like any of us know whether or not Hamilton is even an upgrade at SS over Dalbec…

 

If they honestly thought Dalbec was the emergency call button, he should have been playing SS in WOO more than once a week.

[notin]

If they honestly thought Dalbec was the emergency call button, he should have been playing SS in WOO more than once a week.

 

Probably, especially if they don’t like Hamilton’s glove there…

[notin]

Holding onto an option year for later use?

 

Gotta maintain control of that age 32 season…

[Bellhorn04]

Does Bloom get credit for "not trading away" the right prospects???

 

He certainly gets credit for sticking with Duran.

[moonslav59]

Does Bloom get credit for "not trading away" the right prospects???

 

He hasn't traded away many.

 

The higher ranked ones were...

 

Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber

Jay Groome for Hosmer, Rosier & Ferguson

Frank German for Denlinger

Jacob Wallace for Wyatt Mills

Seabold for cash

 

Did I miss anyone significant?

[moonslav59]

He certainly gets credit for sticking with Duran.

 

Credit for sticking with Dalbec in 2021, too, but then...

 

Ooops!

[mvp 78]

Gotta maintain control of that age 32 season…

 

Nah, it'd be so that he stays down this year because they ostensibly have Mondesi, but can put Hamilton on the taxi squad NEXT season when Mondesi is gone. Then he could stay on the taxi squad for '24, '25 and '26 as a bench guy. Is it THE reason they are using to keep him down? No clue. At this point, I can't see him being worse than Dalbec. He also doesn't have a split vs LHP/RHP this season. I'd put him against LHP instead of Valdez for sure. Maybe they just really value him a lot and want to give him full time at bats and are willing to give Valdez part time at bats?

[moonslav59]

Nah, it'd be so that he stays down this year because they ostensibly have Mondesi, but can put Hamilton on the taxi squad NEXT season when Mondesi is gone. Then he could stay on the taxi squad for '24, '25 and '26 as a bench guy. Is it THE reason they are using to keep him down? No clue. At this point, I can't see him being worse than Dalbec. He also doesn't have a split vs LHP/RHP this season. I'd put him against LHP instead of Valdez for sure. Maybe they just really value him a lot and want to give him full time at bats and are willing to give Valdez part time at bats?

 

Maybe they want to give Valdez a shot at lefties and righties, and don't plan on using Dalbec, except in emergencies.

 

Kike and Mondesi are both FAs after 2023, and Arroy is after 2024. Maybe the lack of future middle IF depth scared them into protecting a guy with just a small chance at being snagged in Rule 5, at least we think the chance was small.

 

At his age and with his recent success in AAA, one has to wonder about their confidence in him. Does he still have that much room to grow?

 

I guess Duran showed some major steps can be made late in the process.

[mvp 78]

He hasn't traded away many.

 

The higher ranked ones were...

 

Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber

Jay Groome for Hosmer, Rosier & Ferguson

Frank German for Denlinger

Jacob Wallace for Wyatt Mills

Seabold for cash

 

Did I miss anyone significant?

 

Aldo Ramirez: hasn't pitched since he was traded

Jay Groome: was in line to be SDP's 5th starter, now has 7.99 ERA in AAA

Frank German: sucked at AAA for CHW was DFA'd

Jacob Wallace: repeating AA, 7.84 BB/9

Connor Seabold: 5.30 ERA in COL pen, top 6% BB rate but everything else is mediocre to bad

[mvp 78]

Maybe they want to give Valdez a shot at lefties and righties, and don't plan on using Dalbec, except in emergencies.

 

Kike and Mondesi are both FAs after 2023, and Arroy is after 2024. Maybe the lack of future middle IF depth scared them into protecting a guy with just a small chance at being snagged in Rule 5, at least we think the chance was small.

 

At his age and with his recent success in AAA, one has to wonder about their confidence in him. Does he still have that much room to grow?

 

I guess Duran showed some major steps can be made late in the process.

 

Replacing guys like Kiké, Arroyo and Mondesi via FA shouldn't be a tough task. It's replacing upper echelon guys that is hard to do.

[notin]

Nah, it'd be so that he stays down this year because they ostensibly have Mondesi, but can put Hamilton on the taxi squad NEXT season when Mondesi is gone. Then he could stay on the taxi squad for '24, '25 and '26 as a bench guy. Is it THE reason they are using to keep him down? No clue. At this point, I can't see him being worse than Dalbec. He also doesn't have a split vs LHP/RHP this season. I'd put him against LHP instead of Valdez for sure. Maybe they just really value him a lot and want to give him full time at bats and are willing to give Valdez part time at bats?

 

It might be as simple as they want him to play and won’t call him up to sit on the bench. Maybe they think he’s actually got a chance to be good. Or at least adequate for an extended period. If Kike gets hurt, they really have no choice, barring another move.

 

They might even think Dalbec can handle shortstop for a few innings or even a full game without derailing the entire season. They also clearly don’t care if Dalbec comes up to sit, which might be a bigger factor than we realize.

 

Just a thought…

[moonslav59]

Replacing guys like Kiké, Arroyo and Mondesi via FA shouldn't be a tough task. It's replacing upper echelon guys that is hard to do.

 

Agreed. Like you mentioned, Hamilton will likely max out as depth- perhaps almost always in AAA.

[mvp 78]

It might be as simple as they want him to play and won’t call him up to sit on the bench. Maybe they think he’s actually got a chance to be good. Or at least adequate for an extended period. If Kike gets hurt, they really have no choice, barring another move.

 

They might even think Dalbec can handle shortstop for a few innings or even a full game without derailing the entire season. They also clearly don’t care if Dalbec comes up to sit, which might be a bigger factor than we realize.

 

Just a thought…

 

I agree about the "not sitting part" which is why my last sentence suggests the reason for them keeping him in AAA is full time at bats.

[Nick]

So we got two possible positional starters for three months rental in Vaz?

 

Plus opened up spot for our future #1 catcher?

 

Sweet.

 

Good job by Bloom.

 

Houston must be loaded.

[moonslav59]

So we got two possible positional starters for three months rental in Vaz?

 

Plus opened up spot for our future #1 catcher?

 

Sweet.

 

Good job by Bloom.

 

Houston must be loaded.

 

Yes, I think Abreu and Valdez were like their 9th-15th ranked prospects.

[notin]

I agree about the "not sitting part" which is why my last sentence suggests the reason for them keeping him in AAA is full time at bats.

 

I think he’s probably a utility player at best. But the Sox presumably know him better than me and my cursory evaluation…

[mvp 78]

So we got two possible positional starters for three months rental in Vaz?

 

Plus opened up spot for our future #1 catcher?

 

Sweet.

 

Good job by Bloom.

 

Houston must be loaded.

 

They also weren't going to re-sign or QO Vaz. It was a good deal.

[mvp 78]

I think he’s probably a utility player at best. But the Sox presumably know him better than me and my cursory evaluation…

 

Maybe more full time AB's now for a UTIL role later? I know they were trying to get him OF reps last year, but he has none so far this year. He's been 2b/SS only so far in '23.

[moonslav59]

They also weren't going to re-sign or QO Vaz. It was a good deal.

 

That's the key.

 

People can argue that was the wrong path to take, but for what Vaz got, I think letting him go made sense.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hamilton has been good since joining the Sox org -- 70 SBs last year, .955 OPS this spring -- but no one ever seems to mention him as an actual prospect... not uniform personnel, front office types and definitely not those who cover and rank the system. Soxprospects.com currently lists him #19, while MLB.com has him at #27, behind 10 other middle infielders (though they may outdated, as Drohan is still #29).

 

The mystery remains, as others have said, why he's on the 40 and not worthy of helping the big club in need. If his D was that bad, why is he the starting shortstop at the next level below the bigs?

 

Are they showcasing Hamilton to make him more attractive as trade bait? I always assumed Bloom acquired and protected him in advance of the new rules revitalizing speed on the basepaths... but maybe it was a ploy to generate interest in clubs that value stolen bases more than one that plays jai-alai off the great wall of monster half the time.

[Nick]

I thought I read only reason Dalbec came up and not Hamilton was due mainly to him being left handed.

 

We can start 9 lefties if we play Hamilton at ss and let Yoshida DH.

 

Crazy.

[moonslav59]

I thought I read only reason Dalbec came up and not Hamilton was due mainly to him being left handed.

 

We can start 9 lefties if we play Hamilton at ss and let Yoshida DH.

 

Crazy.

 

Good point.

 

People wonder why we signed Turner & Duvall. We do need some righties.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good point.

 

People wonder why we signed Turner & Duvall. We do need some righties.

 

This is why they need to hang onto Nick Yorke. If you check the prospect list, there are just not a lot of righties in the Top 20.

 

Gotta hope at least one outfielder of Rafaela or Bleis makes it. After that, all the best hitters are lefty sticks, except for maybe Lugo or Blaze Jordan.

[moonslav59]

We still own the last WC slot by 1.5 on LAA and 2.5 On NYY. (3.0 on HOU & SEA)

 

Here is a look at the injury reports for some selected teams (source: MLB.com):

 

BOS

10 Day: Arroyo, Chang (will be longer)

15 Day: Paxton (may start May 12-13), Whitlock, Crawford, Joely

60 Day: Mondesi (June?), Duvall, July?), Story (July?), Kelly (???)

 

NYY:

10: Judge, Stanton, Donaldson, Rortvedt

15: Rodon, Severini, Loaisiga

60: Monta, Kahnle, Gil, Effross

 

TOR:

15: Cimber, Pop, White

60: Ryu, C Green

 

BAL:

15: Tate & Givens

60: Means

 

TBR:

15: Glasnow, Fairbanks

60: Springs, Baz, Kittredge, Armstrong

 

HOU:

15: Altuve, McCullers, L Garcia, Urquidy, Brantley, McCormick, Mushinski

 

TEX:

15: deGrom, Seager, Garver, Otto

60: Odorizzi, B Martin, Howard