A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

https://tht.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates-in-the-majors/

 

That's a very high estimate. Now do amount of innings pitched post surgery.

 

From your source:

 

Some of the most famous pitchers in MLB history have undergone tommy john surgery, including:

 

Adam Wainwright No longer throws a slider post TJS

 

So, Story won't be throwing any sliders to 1B?

 

 

[mvp 78]

Warning sign? that was average arm strength. And if you're concerned about the drop TO average then the fact that he was injured should spell those fears. It shows us his drop in arm strength was injury related....an injury that surgery is HIGHLY successful for.

 

I'm about 10000000X more concerned with his ability to hit and being rusty after not playing for so long than his arm strength.

 

The warning sign is a huge drop in velo. Shouldn't that be a big red flag???????

 

"Average velo?" Lol no. His 2021 wasn't "average." He was 52nd out of 58 qualified SS!!!!!

[mvp 78]

So, Story won't be throwing any sliders to 1B?

 

 

 

I think Kiké does?

[moonslav59]

I think Kiké does?

 

And change-ups!

[moonslav59]

The warning sign is a huge drop in velo. Shouldn't that be a big red flag???????

 

"Average velo?" Lol no. His 2021 wasn't "average." He was 52nd out of 58 qualified SS!!!!!

 

His point was that was when he was playing hurt, too.

 

Before that it was not that bad. The surgery may bring it above 2021 and 2022 but maybe not all the way back, but maybe yes.

[Hugh2]

https://tht.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates-in-the-majors/

 

That's a very high estimate. Now do amount of innings pitched post surgery.

 

From your source:

 

Some of the most famous pitchers in MLB history have undergone tommy john surgery, including:

 

Mariano Rivera LOL DIDN'T HAVE TJS

Johan Santana 1.5 fWAR after TJS

Chris Sale Just LOL

Jacob DeGrom Walking IL

Adam Wainwright No longer throws a slider post TJS

Steven Strasburg Holy s***

Justin Verlander One good year post TJS

These are just a few of the many successful pitchers who have been able to come back from Tommy john surgery and return to their previous level of play.

 

And what percentage are THOSE players of everyone who has ever had TJS? probably not even .01% that's not a relevant sample size. It also said the success rate goes DOWN after 35. How many guys on that list are over 35? Also some people are just built differently, the fact that you can list 5 guys from the thousands of people who have successful TJS probably does more to make my point than yours.

 

Look, anything can happen, his arm can come back STRONGER, WEAKER, or the Same. Odds are he will be where he was before he got injured, which was about average. If you want to believe otherwise then I say you're just being a pessimist, which is well within your right and a common theme on this board.

 

I expect and hope his arm strength is fine for SS, and I hope the team gets a stopgap in 2024 and puts him back to 2nd too. If he's healthy, I think he will be fine there. He lost arm strength BECAUSE he was injured, it's perfectly reasonable to assume he's fine if recovered. It's ok....it won't hurt to be a little optimistic and think he will be in the majority of people who recover.

Edited May 10, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

His point was that was when he was playing hurt, too.

 

Before that it was not that bad. The surgery may bring it above 2021 and 2022 but maybe not all the way back, but maybe yes.

 

Did Story play 2nd or SS in 2021. WHY would we use the average velo from SS?? apples to apples people.

 

That AND his arm may have been starting to bother him then.

[mvp 78]

Did Story play 2nd or SS in 2021. WHY would we use the average velo from SS?? apples to apples people.

 

That AND his arm may have been starting to bother him then.

 

He's throwing slower at 2B? Does he not like getting runners out? WTF?

[mvp 78]

It's ok....it won't hurt to be a little optimistic and think he will be in the majority of people who recover.

 

That's fine to be a little optimistic, just use sources that are based in reality. Mariano Rivera didn't have TJS. The guys he listed as success stories weren't exactly that. C'mon man!

[Hugh2]

He's throwing slower at 2B? Does he not like getting runners out? WTF?

 

You're not going to throw as hard as you can at 2nd on a routine play.

[Hugh2]

Runners are going to adjust how hard they throw depending on the situation. If a second baseman is on the bag trying to turn a double play he's likely throwing as hard as he can or close to it, if he's 1/2 the distance from their throwing to 1st on a routine grounder he's going to take a lot more of his throw than a SS would to 1B because.....physics.

[Hugh2]

That's fine to be a little optimistic, just use sources that are based in reality. Mariano Rivera didn't have TJS. The guys he listed as success stories weren't exactly that. C'mon man!

 

SO lets both go do some research and find. Using names one way or the other is 100% meaningless, there are thousands of people who get this surgery every single year. I don't give two hoots about names like Rivera or Story or whoever, I care about the results.

 

Bad example, but I tell it anyways. If you're at the doctor and need surgery that could save you life but might also kill you, would you care more about some celebrity that had it? or what the success rate was from EVERYONE who had it? results matter....not examples.

[moonslav59]

You're not going to throw as hard as you can at 2nd on a routine play.

 

On plays to a 2Bman's left, he can't throw hard. It's hard for a 1Bman to catch a 90 mph throw from 15-25 feet away.

 

Certainly, this would affect "avg mph."

[Hugh2]

On plays to a 2Bman's left, he can't throw hard. It's hard for a 1Bman to catch a 90 mph throw from 15-25 feet away.

 

Certainly, this would affect "avg mph."

 

exactly.

[Hugh2]

It's also worth stating that Tommy John itself does not ADD arm strength. And I've read other reports that the success rate to normal activities is as low as 75-80 percent and not 88-92. IDK maybe they've got better at it. But that's still a majority.

 

The people who GAIN arm strength do so because the rehabilitation strengthens their arm up to it being stronger than before. I'd speculate that the younger and more healthy and fit you are the more likely it's for that to happen as well. Work ethic probably matters as well.

[Hugh2]

Also it's worth mentioning Story had a less drastic surgery than Tommy JOhn. He didn't have Tommy John.

[Maxbialystock]

The warning sign is a huge drop in velo. Shouldn't that be a big red flag???????

 

"Average velo?" Lol no. His 2021 wasn't "average." He was 52nd out of 58 qualified SS!!!!!

 

Meh. Should be good enough for 2b. The point is to get his bat (and range) into the lineup.

[Old Red]

Littell designated for assignment. Added Pax. Edited May 10, 2023 by Old Red

[notin]

What does Story's arm look like inside, is the real question...

 

Probably very icky. Sorry for using all that confusing medical jargon…

[moonslav59]

Meh. Should be good enough for 2b. The point is to get his bat (and range) into the lineup.

 

I'm thinking about SS.

 

Between Kike, Arroyo and Valdez, we should be fine at 2B, but I don't want any of them at SS- ever.

 

Now, when Mondesi comes back, Story at 2B makes much more sense.

 

I'm not sure about this, though:

 

SS: Chang/ 2B: Story > SS: Story/ 2B: Kike/Arroyo/Valdez

 

...although the D is probably better.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of fWAR and 2023...

 

ATL has 2 of the top 4 fWAR players:

1. Murphy 2.4

4. Acuna Jr 2.0

and 3 in the top 30 (Olsen at 29 with a 1.3 WAR.)

 

TOR has 2 in the top 7:

3. Chapman 2.1

7. Bichette 1.8

 

TBR has 2 in the top 10"

2. Franco 2.2

10 Y Diaz 1.7

(Lowe is at 22 with 1.4.)

 

TEX has 2 in the top 6:

5. Heim 1.8

6. Semien 1.8

 

Shockingly, guess who makes the top 30 list (also T 26th)?

 

Jarren Duran at 1.3 (He also has the lowest PA total- 84- in the top 49. Duval is at 50th with just 37 PAs.) Dugo is 21st at 1.4.

 

The Yanks top guys is Rizzo at 35th (1.2.)

 

SEA has 3 pitchers in the top 12:

6. Castillo 1.5

7. Kirby 1.5

12. Gilbert 1.3

 

Boston's to fWAR pitcher is Sale at #63 (0.6)

[Bellhorn04]

Probably very icky. Sorry for using all that confusing medical jargon…

 

You're a pricklish one LOL

 

I just don't like the sound of Story's surgery. Why not have the full TJ surgery? As any Breaking Bad fan knows, half-measures don't get it.

[moonslav59]

You're a pricklish one LOL

 

I just don't like the sound of Story's surgery. Why not have the full TJ surgery? As any Breaking Bad fan knows, half-measures don't get it.

 

That's only half the Story.

 

[Hugh2]

You're a pricklish one LOL

 

I just don't like the sound of Story's surgery. Why not have the full TJ surgery? As any Breaking Bad fan knows, half-measures don't get it.

 

I understand this point, but when you consider we have no ideal what his medicals look like or could also mean it’s not as serious as an injury that would require TJS.

 

I don’t think you, or anyone else on this board, definitely including me, have the expertise to call it half measures. Most doctors wouldn’t recommend an agressive surgery that wasn’t required.

 

It could be a good sign

[moonslav59]

I understand this point, but when you consider we have no ideal what his medicals look like or could also mean it’s not as serious as an injury that would require TJS.

 

I don’t think you, or anyone else on this board, definitely including me, have the expertise to call it half measures. Most doctors wouldn’t recommend an agressive surgery that wasn’t required.

 

It could be a good sign

 

As much as I hate to bring myself to say it, I think we have to trust the team doctors recommendations.

 

He's a long term investment, so I don't think they are motivated by a quick fix.

[notin]

2020: 82.3 mph, 87.3 max

2021: 79.1 mph, 84.4 max

2022: 76.1 mph, 79.5 max

 

If it returns, where does it return to? With the warning signs in 21, why did the Sox think they could move him to SS?

 

 

You can’t compare his velocity as a second baseman to his velocity as a shortstop. He’s throwing from a much closer part of the infield and not having to throw hard nearly as many times…

[Nick]

A must see TV when Bello pitches.

 

Great to see positive contribtions from Duran and Casas.

 

This team is fun to watch.

[Bellhorn04]

A must see TV when Bello pitches.

 

Great to see positive contribtions from Duran and Casas.

 

This team is fun to watch.

 

Nice to have some younger guys contributing, for sure.

 

Thanks Dave!

[Hugh2]

Nice to have some younger guys contributing, for sure.

 

Thanks Dave!

 

Doesn't Bloom get credit for "not trading" them away???

[moonslav59]

Doesn't Bloom get credit for "not trading" them away???

 

Dave would have traded many of them, but he did seem to have a good eye for who to keep.

 

Traded Moncada: kept Devers.

 

Traded Kopech: kept Bello.

 

Traded Espinoza: kept Houck.

 

Traded Dubon: kept Duran.