A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

The disturbing thing is that McGuire has horrible numbers with every starter he's caught. The good numbers with Crawford came after he went to the pen.

 

Obviously most of it is a reflection on our starters.

 

It's early in the season and he's stuck with Pivetta. He was also anchored to early season Kluber/Sale who I don't think Wong would have done any better with.

 

It appears that Wong is a much improved catcher and should probably be getting the 60/40 split at least, but I think McGuire's numbers are skewed negatively. McGuire's big problem right now is his noodle arm and Wong has a rocket. If McGuire is just the backup, he's a pretty decent one.

[Bellhorn04]

I suppose this is meant to target the pitching. Although sometimes we score 3 or less and lose, like the 1-0 loss to Tampa. The issue that day wasn’t pitching.

 

Their SP has been pretty weak. But it’s also actually improving. We started the season with 3 SP on the IL; next week (hopefully) another comes back. Sale has improved nicely, something that was anticipated by those who understood pitchers cannot simply pick the ball up after a multiyear hiatus and continue as if nothing happened. Even Kluber looks better recently, although looking worse should result in a DFA.

 

I won’t call this starting pitching “good” and yes, it’s the big weakness. But it is slowly improving and might someday reach the level of “adequate”…

 

Houck has the lowest ERA of our rotation at 5.26. The collective ERA of our starters is 6.10.

 

I get that there are some signs of improvement, but man, the numbers are pretty freakin' bad.

[moonslav59]

The disturbing thing is that McGuire has horrible numbers with every starter he's caught. The good numbers with Crawford came after he went to the pen.

 

Obviously most of it is a reflection on our starters.

 

Well, Wink has has many IP as some starters.

 

My point about Houck:

 

3.02 ERA 2020-2022 with anyone but Wong.

5.26 ERA in 2023 w ONLY Wong.

McGuire has not caught Houck, at all.

 

Whitlock:

2.73 ERA 2021-2022 with anyone but Wong.

6.19 ERA in 2023 with ONLY Wong

 

These numbers are just as horrible, frightening and concerning as any pitcher's numbers with mcGuire.

 

It's not just McGuire with horrible numbers.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Number of wins when we score:

 

4 runs or less - 2

3 runs or less - 1

 

We are 2-2 in games where our pitching lets up 4 runs. Our O sucks!

 

We are 8-6 when allowing 4-5 runs, but 5-4 when allowing 6-8 runs.

 

Kinda early to draw conclusions.

 

[Old Red]

Houck has the lowest ERA of our rotation at 5.26. The collective ERA of our starters is 6.10.

 

I get that there are some signs of improvement, but man, the numbers are pretty freakin' bad.

Improvements doesn’t necessarily mean it will be good enough if the offense don’t score 7-8 runs a game.

[notin]

Houck has the lowest ERA of our rotation at 5.26. The collective ERA of our starters is 6.10.

 

I get that there are some signs of improvement, but man, the numbers are pretty freakin' bad.

 

True, but most of these guys have 30-40IP. At 35 IP, each earned run add 0.26 to a pitcher’s ERA. Hopefully they can get those down as IP goes up…

[Nick]

So Pivetta thinks there should be no consequence for pitching poorly?

 

Not a big fan of him.

 

I hope we can do better.

[notin]

So Pivetta thinks there should be no consequence for pitching poorly?

 

Not a big fan of him.

 

I hope we can do better.

 

What do you mean?

[Bellhorn04]

What do you mean?

 

I think he means Pivetta is really sucking.

[moonslav59]

MLB ERA is up 9% from last year (3.97 > 4.33)

 

Pivetta's is up 37%.

[Maxbialystock]

It's early in the season and he's stuck with Pivetta. He was also anchored to early season Kluber/Sale who I don't think Wong would have done any better with.

 

It appears that Wong is a much improved catcher and should probably be getting the 60/40 split at least, but I think McGuire's numbers are skewed negatively. McGuire's big problem right now is his noodle arm and Wong has a rocket. If McGuire is just the backup, he's a pretty decent one.

 

I'm very pro-Wong and kind of anti-McGuire, but I'm not crazy. Overall, I've pretty happy to have two decent catchers: one bats righty, the other lefty; one is better defensively, the other (we think) is better offensively.

 

On the other hand, Wong's WAR is +1.2, and McGuire's is -0.1. So it does make sense to give Wong more innings/games behind the plate.

[moonslav59]

I'm very pro-Wong and kind of anti-McGuire, but I'm not crazy. Overall, I've pretty happy to have two decent catchers: one bats righty, the other lefty; one is better defensively, the other (we think) is better offensively.

 

On the other hand, Wong's WAR is +1.2, and McGuire's is -0.1. So it does make sense to give Wong more innings/games behind the plate.

 

I think McGuire's D is better than we've seen, but who knows?

 

I also think he may be battling an injury.

 

Over time, we may reverse our thinking, but I like what both have done, so far.

 

As far as the rotation sucking and how much of that is on the catcher(s,) we'll have to give it time. Not a good start, for sure.

[Maxbialystock]

MLB ERA is up 9% from last year (3.97 > 4.33)

 

Pivetta's is up 37%.

 

His career ERA is 5.07, and this year so far it's 6.23.

 

Apropos of what we saw last night, try these stats on for size: first time he faces the batting order, their OPS is 1.026; second time it's .789; and third time it's .634.

[moonslav59]

I think we all be amazed knowing back in March that our catchers would have a +0.9 fWAR on May 10th (0.7 Wong + 0.2 McGuire).

 

The 3.2 fWAR from Verdugo (1.4), Duran (1.3) and Yoshida (0.5) is even more shocking. (Tapia is 0.2.)

 

The bummers:

-0.4 Casas

-0.2 Kike

 

Not bad having just 2.

[Bellhorn04]

We are 2-2 in games where our pitching lets up 4 runs. Our O sucks!

 

We are 8-6 when allowing 4-5 runs, but 5-4 when allowing 6-8 runs.

 

Kinda early to draw conclusions.

 

 

Maybe not conclusions, but we certainly appear to be a team that scores a lot (5.7) and gives up a lot (5.2).

[moonslav59]

Maybe not conclusions, but we certainly appear to be a team that scores a lot (5.7) and gives up a lot (5.2).

 

It does seem like our rotation is showing signs of improving, and it will be interesting to see if Paxton can give it a boost.

 

I still have faith that our staff will improve.

 

I also think some of the crappy ERAs is due to poor defense that allows plenty of "earned" runs that would not be with plus D.

[Bellhorn04]

It does seem like our rotation is showing signs of improving, and it will be interesting to see if Paxton can give it a boost.

 

I still have faith that our staff will improve.

 

I also think some of the crappy ERAs is due to poor defense that allows plenty of "earned" runs that would not be with plus D.

 

No doubt the defense is inflating the ERAs.

[moonslav59]

Another way to look at our rotation woes and who is catching them:

 

More with McGuire:

Kluber-

4.36 ERA ('19-'22) and 4.34 in 2022

6.29 in 2023

 

Close to Even IP with both catchers

Pivetta-

4.54 ERA "21-22

6.23 ERA in 2023 (7.11 McGuire/ 5.17 w Wong)

 

More with Wong:

Sale-

4.09 ERA ('19-'22)

6.37 ERA in 2023

 

ALL IP with Wong

 

Houck-

3.02 (2020-2022)

5.26 in 2023

 

Whitlock-

2.73 2021-2022

6.19 2023

 

To me, it looks like all our pitchers are doing much worse than the least few years, with no one catcher sticking out as worse than the other in this light.

 

Improved:

 

Winckowski

5.89 to 1.57

1.35 w Wong (13.1 IP) but worse OPSA .533

1..86 w McGuire (9.2) but better OPSA .513

 

Crawford

5.90> 3.51

1.26 w McGuire (14.1)

6.35 w Wong (11.1)

 

[Maxbialystock]

It does seem like our rotation is showing signs of improving, and it will be interesting to see if Paxton can give it a boost.

 

I still have faith that our staff will improve.

 

I also think some of the crappy ERAs is due to poor defense that allows plenty of "earned" runs that would not be with plus D.

 

Agree on that last point. However, it is a truism that all Sox position players are symbolized with bats, not gloves/arms.

 

As I have already said way too many times, whenever the Sox accidentally pick up a good fielding shortstop, they quickly find a way to get rid of him--unless he's a really good hitter. Bogaerts fit the Sox profile--good bat, ok glove/arm--perfectly for 8 straight seasons. Jose Iglesias, a brilliant fielding SS, did not, and was quickly traded away. Same deal earlier with Alex Gonzalez.

 

I hasten to add that emphasizing hitting over fielding has by and large worked for the Sox--at least in the JH era.

Edited May 10, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

No doubt the defense is inflating the ERAs.

 

Too many IF hits, non DPs turned and no error calls on hits.

[moonslav59]

Agree on that last point. However, it is a truism that all Sox position players are symbolized with bats, not gloves/arms.

 

As I have already said way too many times, whenever the Sox accidentally pick up a good fielding shortstop, they quickly find a way to get rid of him--unless he's a really good hitter. Bogaerts fit the Sox profile--good bat, ok glove/arm--perfectly for 8 straight seasons. Jose Iglesias, a brilliant fielding SS, did not, and was quickly traded away. Same deal earlier with Alex Gonzalez.

 

Our D might be greatly improved without any trades made:

 

C: Wong/McGuire (May improve over time.)

1B: Casas/Turner

2B: Story/Kike

SS: Mondesi/Story (Chang)

3B: Devers

LF: Yoshida/Duran/Duvall

CF: Kike/Duran

RF: Verdugo

[moonslav59]

At this point, who is the better defensive CF'er?

 

Duvall, when healthy

vs

the new and improved Duran

[Maxbialystock]

Too many IF hits, non DPs turned and no error calls on hits.

 

Sox were 10-7 in games in which Chang played (usually SS). His DWAR is +0.4.

[Maxbialystock]

At this point, who is the better defensive CF'er?

 

Duvall, when healthy

vs

the new and improved Duran

 

I can't remember whether Duvall has an arm. We know Duran doesn't.

 

However, to date Duran's DWAR is +0.4 and Duvall's is -0.1.

[Maxbialystock]

Our D might be greatly improved without any trades made:

 

C: Wong/McGuire (May improve over time.)

1B: Casas/Turner

2B: Story/Kike

SS: Mondesi/Story (Chang)

3B: Devers

LF: Yoshida/Duran/Duvall

CF: Kike/Duran

RF: Verdugo

 

Frankly, I've pretty much had it with Kike, and it's not hard to see why. He stinks in the infield, and the Sox have four much better hitting outfielders in Yoshida, Duran, Duvall, and Verdugo. So scratch Kike.

 

The best fielding outfield is probably Duran, Duvall, and Dugo, but I'm fine with Yoshida out there in LF, especially at Fenway. Not much range and not much arm, but adequate.

 

Devers is fine at 3b. I want the best hitter at 1b--Turner or Casas.

 

SS and 2B are the problem, and my preference right now would be Chang at SS and Story at 2b. Is Mondesi the hot prospect expected to take over at SS? If so, I can wait on him because, if they can stay healthy, I'm fine with Chang and Story. With Kike and/or Arroyo lurking in the background.

 

I'm also fine with Wong/McGuire catching.

[Hugh2]

Frankly, I've pretty much had it with Kike, and it's not hard to see why. He stinks in the infield, and the Sox have four much better hitting outfielders in Yoshida, Duran, Duvall, and Verdugo. So scratch Kike.

 

The best fielding outfield is probably Duran, Duvall, and Dugo, but I'm fine with Yoshida out there in LF, especially at Fenway. Not much range and not much arm, but adequate.

 

Devers is fine at 3b. I want the best hitter at 1b--Turner or Casas.

 

SS and 2B are the problem, and my preference right now would be Chang at SS and Story at 2b. Is Mondesi the hot prospect expected to take over at SS? If so, I can wait on him because, if they can stay healthy, I'm fine with Chang and Story. With Kike and/or Arroyo lurking in the background.

 

I'm also fine with Wong/McGuire catching.

 

Mondesi might be the best player out of all of those guys if he can get on the field, that's the thing with him, he's one of those guys who had all the talent but is constantly bit by the injury bug and never really ever had a consistent season. But he's a plus defender and has elite speed on the bases. I really liked what Wong was doing before he got hurt. I was fine with him at SS pushing Kike to 2b. At the time I would have loved Kike back in CF when Story came back but now.....now I just want guy who can field SS.

[mvp 78]

At this point, who is the better defensive CF'er?

 

Duvall, when healthy

vs

the new and improved Duran

 

Duran doesn't have a long enough track record, but we know his arm isn't good.

 

Duvall has won a GG and can at least fake it in CF.

[Maxbialystock]

Mondesi might be the best player out of all of those guys if he can get on the field, that's the thing with him, he's one of those guys who had all the talent but is constantly bit by the injury bug and never really ever had a consistent season. But he's a plus defender and has elite speed on the bases. I really liked what Wong was doing before he got hurt. I was fine with him at SS pushing Kike to 2b. At the time I would have loved Kike back in CF when Story came back but now.....now I just want guy who can field SS.

 

Mondesi was with KC for 7 seasons, two of them (2018 and 2019) pretty good. This is the 4th season since 2019, and he seems to be going in the wrong direction, especially with his health (currently his knee).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mondesi might be the best player out of all of those guys if he can get on the field, that's the thing with him, he's one of those guys who had all the talent but is constantly bit by the injury bug and never really ever had a consistent season. But he's a plus defender and has elite speed on the bases. I really liked what Wong was doing before he got hurt. I was fine with him at SS pushing Kike to 2b. At the time I would have loved Kike back in CF when Story came back but now.....now I just want guy who can field SS.

 

The problem with counting on the IL Red Sox to return and contribute at their past levels are that Story, Duvall and Mondesi are all out with injuries that will most likely have severe affects on their strengths -- or in Story's case, the shortstop position he was supposed to play at an elite level.

 

Story's throwing elbow, Mondesi's knee, Duvall's wrist... Does it really make sense to expect Story to return to a spot he hasn't played in two years and gun people out from deep in the hole? Does it make any sense to think Mondesi will be as fast, even after healing from blowing out his knee, because of inevitable scar tissue? Will Duvall really be back at his full power-swinging strength, a few months after traumatizing half the arms that whip the bat?

[Old Red]

The problem with counting on the IL Red Sox to return and contribute at their past levels are that Story, Duvall and Mondesi are all out with injuries that will most likely have severe affects on their strengths -- or in Story's case, the shortstop position he was supposed to play at an elite level.

 

Story's throwing elbow, Mondesi's knee, Duvall's wrist... Does it really make sense to expect Story to return to a spot he hasn't played in two years and gun people out from deep in the hole? Does it make any sense to think Mondesi will be as fast, even after healing from blowing out his knee, because of inevitable scar tissue? Will Duvall really be back at his full power-swinging strength, a few months after traumatizing half the arms that whip the bat?

 

For myself I’m not counting on any of the returning from the IL to comeback, and start producing right away, or at all in some cases. Who knows what will be happening with the lineup at the present time. Duran, and Valdez have played well, but I’m not sold on either yet long term, and who knows what Casas will be doing either. Things will most likely work themselves out for better, or worse.