A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

The problem with counting on the IL Red Sox to return and contribute at their past levels are that Story, Duvall and Mondesi are all out with injuries that will most likely have severe affects on their strengths -- or in Story's case, the shortstop position he was supposed to play at an elite level.

 

Story's throwing elbow, Mondesi's knee, Duvall's wrist... Does it really make sense to expect Story to return to a spot he hasn't played in two years and gun people out from deep in the hole? Does it make any sense to think Mondesi will be as fast, even after healing from blowing out his knee, because of inevitable scar tissue? Will Duvall really be back at his full power-swinging strength, a few months after traumatizing half the arms that whip the bat?

 

I keep reading that Story has no arm strength left and now throws like a kindergartener using his wrong arm. And while his arm strength is certainly down from where it was, it’s still stronger than 2022 Gold Glover Dansby Swanson and Sox fan favorite Jose Iglesias…

[Hugh2]

The problem with counting on the IL Red Sox to return and contribute at their past levels are that Story, Duvall and Mondesi are all out with injuries that will most likely have severe affects on their strengths -- or in Story's case, the shortstop position he was supposed to play at an elite level.

 

Story's throwing elbow, Mondesi's knee, Duvall's wrist... Does it really make sense to expect Story to return to a spot he hasn't played in two years and gun people out from deep in the hole? Does it make any sense to think Mondesi will be as fast, even after healing from blowing out his knee, because of inevitable scar tissue? Will Duvall really be back at his full power-swinging strength, a few months after traumatizing half the arms that whip the bat?

 

No, that's why I'd roll with Kike/Mondesi/Chung at this point. But how does Storys elbow look? if it's rehabbed, maybe its' fine and he's fine at SS in which case move Kike to 2nd.

[Maxbialystock]

Duran doesn't have a long enough track record, but we know his arm isn't good.

 

Duvall has won a GG and can at least fake it in CF.

 

Duvall is 34, hasn't played a full season since 2017, has played all of 8 games this season, and is hoping to recover from a broken wrist by when? June? His OPS for 8 games is a dazzling 1.544, but his OPS for 838 games (in ten seasons) is .764.

 

Duran is 8 years younger and just may have figured out how to hit--OPS .991 in 21 games this season. His DWAR so far this season is +0.3 even with the weak arm (1 outfield assist). He has the 2d best WAR (+1.3) on the Sox and is faster and healthier than Duvall.

[Bellhorn04]

I keep reading that Story has no arm strength left and now throws like a kindergartener using his wrong arm. And while his arm strength is certainly down from where it was, it’s still stronger than 2022 Gold Glover Dansby Swanson and Sox fan favorite Jose Iglesias…

 

What does Story's arm look like inside, is the real question...

[mvp 78]

I keep reading that Story has no arm strength left and now throws like a kindergartener using his wrong arm. And while his arm strength is certainly down from where it was, it’s still stronger than 2022 Gold Glover Dansby Swanson and Sox fan favorite Jose Iglesias…

 

This is a LIE.

 

In 2022, Story threw an average of 76.1mph last year with a top velo of 79.5. Swanson averaged 79.2mph and had a top velo of 87.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2022&minThrows=100&pos=&team=

[moonslav59]

Duvall is 34, hasn't played a full season since 2017, has played all of 8 games this season, and is hoping to recover from a broken wrist by when? June? His OPS for 8 games is a dazzling 1.544, but his OPS for 838 games (in ten seasons) is .764.

 

Duran is 8 years younger and just may have figured out how to hit--OPS .991 in 21 games this season. His DWAR so far this season is +0.3 even with the weak arm (1 outfield assist). He has the 2d best WAR (+1.3) on the Sox and is faster and healthier than Duvall.

 

Duvall led the league in rbi in 2021 and had 555 PAs.

 

I'll take that over 650 PAs from most anyone else.

[Hugh2]

We should have reason to believe that if Story is recovered from his injury he has plenty of arm for SS

[moonslav59]

What does Story's arm look like inside, is the real question...

 

Bloody.

[moonslav59]

Frankly, I've pretty much had it with Kike, and it's not hard to see why. He stinks in the infield, and the Sox have four much better hitting outfielders in Yoshida, Duran, Duvall, and Verdugo. So scratch Kike.

 

I think Kike is still a decent 2Bman and better than Valdez.

 

Not so sure about Arroyo.

 

Story is way better.

[moonslav59]

The best fielding outfield is probably Duran, Duvall, and Dugo, but I'm fine with Yoshida out there in LF, especially at Fenway. Not much range and not much arm, but adequate.

 

Kike is a better defensive OF'er than all 3 of these guys.

[Maxbialystock]

Duvall led the league in rbi in 2021 and had 555 PAs.

 

I'll take that over 650 PAs from most anyone else.

 

Great numbers!!! Well done.

 

I'd take him too except for one tiny, insignificant data point. Duvall has played all of 8 games this season. In ten seasons he has averaged 84 games per season--and my guess is we will be lucky to get 84 games from him this season. Given how he broke his wrist in April, I'm guessing Cora won't put him back in the outfield. Too risky.

[moonslav59]

Great numbers!!! Well done.

 

I'd take him too except for one tiny, insignificant data point. Duvall has played all of 8 games this season. In ten seasons he has averaged 84 games per season--and my guess is we will be lucky to get 84 games from him this season. Given how he broke his wrist in April, I'm guessing Cora won't put him back in the outfield. Too risky.

 

Those 8 games places him in the top 3-5 in WAR, depending on which WAR you choose! LOL!

 

The wrist issue was at least a result of him hustling.

 

It may take a while to get over the effects of that injury, even after he returns, but I was really just focusing on improved defense as players return.

[Maxbialystock]

Kike is a better defensive OF'er than all 3 of these guys.

 

He's no doubt better than all four, including Yoshida. But what distinguishes those four--Yoshida, Duvall, Verdugo, and now Duran--is that they are all hitting a lot better than Kike. The Sox rarely prefer a good glove over a good bat.

[Maxbialystock]

Those 8 games places him in the top 3-5 in WAR, depending on which WAR you choose! LOL!

 

The wrist issue was at least a result of him hustling.

 

It may take a while to get over the effects of that injury, even after he returns, but I was really just focusing on improved defense as players return.

 

I agree completely he was hustling, but I also think that's what you need in a centerfielder--or any outfielder not named Ted Williams. When he returns, it's quite possible he will be encouraged to take fewer risks--or maybe he will be the DH outfielder.

[Old Red]

Kike is a better defensive OF'er than all 3 of these guys.

 

Kike is better on D than all 3 that I’ll agree on, but Kike can’t hit enough to stay in the lineup to me. If there wasn’t so many injuries to the IF he would just a a sub there too. Chang had beaten him out for SS as it was.

[mvp 78]

We should have reason to believe that if Story is recovered from his injury he has plenty of arm for SS

 

Coming off modified TJS? Results may vary!

[moonslav59]

He's no doubt better than all four, including Yoshida. But what distinguishes those four--Yoshida, Duvall, Verdugo, and now Duran--is that they are all hitting a lot better than Kike. The Sox rarely prefer a good glove over a good bat.

 

Okay. Maybe you mis-typed, but you said "The best defensive OF...."

 

I've been waiting for Kike to start hitting, again, for too long.

[Hugh2]

Coming off modified TJS? Results may vary!

 

Yes but we are talking about a position player, not a pitcher throwing 97 MPH, and ftr many, more than half of pitchers end up ADDING velocity when they make a full recovery.

 

So, again. If recovered and healthy Story should have PLENTY of arm for short.

[moonslav59]

Yes but we are talking about a position player, not a pitcher throwing 97 MPH, and ftr many, more than half of pitchers end up ADDING velocity when they make a full recovery.

 

So, again. If recovered and healthy Story should have PLENTY of arm for short.

 

His added range should more than make up for the few runners that reach due to a weaker arm than other SSs.

[mvp 78]

Yes but we are talking about a position player, not a pitcher throwing 97 MPH, and ftr many, more than half of pitchers end up ADDING velocity when they make a full recovery.

 

So, again. If recovered and healthy Story should have PLENTY of arm for short.

 

LOL, no. This is not the case. Cite your source.

 

Leg and core strength are the primary force generators for throwing velocity. The new elbow ligament does not create new leg strength, but the by product of a Tommy John Surgery rehab program is improved length strength that can yield new velo. In addition, players following TJ surgery & rehab tend to concentrate much more on developing great pitching mechanics. From a research analytical perspective, we say that Tommy John Surgery may be associated with increased velo, but Tommy John Surgery is not causal to increased velo.

 

What Does The Research Say For Professional Baseball?

 

For professional players already performing at the extreme limits of their velocity, velo may not go up after surgery. To better answer this, some colleagues and I conducted a study in 2014 that examined velocity in professional pitchers before and after Tommy John Surgery. When we compared 3 years prior to TJ with 3 years after TJ, there was no difference in fastball velocity for starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

 

https://www.drahmadsportsmedicine.com/question-will-velocity-go-tommy-john-surgery/

[Hugh2]

LOL, no. This is not the case. Cite your source.

 

Leg and core strength are the primary force generators for throwing velocity. The new elbow ligament does not create new leg strength, but the by product of a Tommy John Surgery rehab program is improved length strength that can yield new velo. In addition, players following TJ surgery & rehab tend to concentrate much more on developing great pitching mechanics. From a research analytical perspective, we say that Tommy John Surgery may be associated with increased velo, but Tommy John Surgery is not causal to increased velo.

 

What Does The Research Say For Professional Baseball?

 

For professional players already performing at the extreme limits of their velocity, velo may not go up after surgery. To better answer this, some colleagues and I conducted a study in 2014 that examined velocity in professional pitchers before and after Tommy John Surgery. When we compared 3 years prior to TJ with 3 years after TJ, there was no difference in fastball velocity for starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

 

https://www.drahmadsportsmedicine.com/question-will-velocity-go-tommy-john-surgery/

 

https://danblewett.com/tommy-john-surgery-recovery/#:~:text=The%20success%20rate%20of%20tommy%20john%20surgery%20is%20very%20high,%2D92%25%20of%20the%20time.

 

88-92% of pitchers return to their normal level of play after surgery. THat's pretty f***ing successful, it's not like....an unknown thing that most Tommy John Surgeries are successful

[Hugh2]

Also, wasn't Story's arm velo down BECAUSE he was playing injured? so why would we expect his arm strength to return to 2022 levels if healthy? I'd expect something stronger. To me that would constitute "normal" level of play, if he doesn't add any velocity fine he doesn't need to if he's healthy.

[mvp 78]

Also, wasn't Story's arm velo down BECAUSE he was playing injured? so why would we expect his arm strength to return to 2022 levels if healthy? I'd expect something stronger. To me that would constitute "normal" level of play, if he doesn't add any velocity fine he doesn't need to if he's healthy.

 

2020: 82.3 mph, 87.3 max

2021: 79.1 mph, 84.4 max

2022: 76.1 mph, 79.5 max

 

If it returns, where does it return to? With the warning signs in 21, why did the Sox think they could move him to SS?

[moonslav59]

Also, wasn't Story's arm velo down BECAUSE he was playing injured? so why would we expect his arm strength to return to 2022 levels if healthy? I'd expect something stronger. To me that would constitute "normal" level of play, if he doesn't add any velocity fine he doesn't need to if he's healthy.

 

Good point, maybe coming back to just below his norm will be better than 2021 with COL and 2022 with BOS, but maybe a tick below his healthiest velo days.

[Hugh2]

2020: 82.3 mph, 87.3 max

2021: 79.1 mph, 84.4 max

2022: 76.1 mph, 79.5 max

 

If it returns, where does it return to? With the warning signs in 21, why did the Sox think they could move him to SS?

 

Warning sign? that was average arm strength. And if you're concerned about the drop TO average then the fact that he was injured should spell those fears. It shows us his drop in arm strength was injury related....an injury that surgery is HIGHLY successful for.

 

I'm about 10000000X more concerned with his ability to hit and being rusty after not playing for so long than his arm strength.

Edited May 10, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

Good point, maybe coming back to just below his norm will be better than 2021 with COL and 2022 with BOS, but maybe a tick below his healthiest velo days.

 

The vast majority of pitchers regain their velo, some even get more. Some do get less. Maybe.....we should wait and see and not be so pessimistic. If after all 88-92% of all pitchers return to the same level as play as prior. Some lose velocity so it's entirely possible he does not have the arm strength.

 

But there's little reason to assume that is likely.

[moonslav59]

The vast majority of pitchers regain their velo, some even get more. Some do get less. Maybe.....we should wait and see and not be so pessimistic. If after all 88-92% of all pitchers return to the same level as play as prior. Some lose velocity so it's entirely possible he does not have the arm strength.

 

But there's little reason to assume that is likely.

 

It would be great if he gained some velo from '21-'22, but just getting back to near that would still make him a net plus on D, and even rusty, he should hit better than Chang/Kike.

[Hugh2]

It would be great if he gained some velo from '21-'22, but just getting back to near that would still make him a net plus on D, and even rusty, he should hit better than Chang/Kike.

 

Even if he has average arm strength over at SS he'd be fine. Personally, I like him at 2nd.

[Hugh2]

Another tidbit I found interesting is a large majority of those who DID regain their stuff and even lost velocity prior TJS are players older than 35.

 

Trevor Story is 29. Now this is for pitchers, but they've found that TJS adds on average 4 years to their careers.

[mvp 78]

https://danblewett.com/tommy-john-surgery-recovery/#:~:text=The%20success%20rate%20of%20tommy%20john%20surgery%20is%20very%20high,%2D92%25%20of%20the%20time.

 

88-92% of pitchers return to their normal level of play after surgery. THat's pretty f***ing successful, it's not like....an unknown thing that most Tommy John Surgeries are successful

 

https://tht.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates-in-the-majors/

 

That's a very high estimate. Now do amount of innings pitched post surgery.

 

From your source:

 

Some of the most famous pitchers in MLB history have undergone tommy john surgery, including:

 

Mariano Rivera LOL DIDN'T HAVE TJS

Johan Santana 1.5 fWAR after TJS

Chris Sale Just LOL

Jacob DeGrom Walking IL

Adam Wainwright No longer throws a slider post TJS

Steven Strasburg Holy s***

Justin Verlander One good year post TJS

These are just a few of the many successful pitchers who have been able to come back from tommy john surgery and return to their previous level of play.