A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

Well said, as always.

 

To me, the "one that got away" was Luis Castillo, but I realize we'd have had to part with the untouchable Mayer and probably Rafaela or Bello, too. Maybe Mayer, Mata, Walter and Anthony would have come close.

 

And Seattle is doing very little with that windfall. Their 15-16 record is unimpressive enough, but looks even softer when you realize they’re 6-0 vs Oakland and Colorado, two deserving last place teams whose combined record is 18-46…

[mvp 78]

And Seattle is doing very little with that windfall. Their 15-16 record is unimpressive enough, but looks even softer when you realize they’re 6-0 vs Oakland and Colorado, two deserving last place teams whose combined record is 18-46…

 

And Seattle has graduated a lot of young talent recently.

 

#1 overall pitch fWAR

#2 starters

#2 relievers

#19 offense/defense (28th 2B, 30th DH)

[moonslav59]

I like Cora even with the stealing signs scandal with the Astros. Let's not forget that the Sox indulged in that little game, with Pedroia in the lead and actually proud of it. There can be no doubt that successful sign-stealing--or it's perfectly legal counterpart, being able to real a pitcher's face/hands/arms/body/etc to determine what he is about to throw--gives the hitter a huge advantage. It (sign-stealing) should be combatted/outlawed--as in fact it is.

 

I also like Bloom, mostly because he is the polar opposite of DD. DD defenders rightfully point out that he brought the Sox not only their 4th WS in the JH era, but probably the Sox best team ever. He did that mostly by buying pitchers--Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Kimbrel, and one or two others. And he could do it because the Sox had a lot of good positions players like Betts, Bogaerts, Devers (first year)Benintendi, Holt, JBJ, etc. JDM was a terrific addition by DD to replace the retired Ortiz at DH.

 

On the other hand, that exact same Sox team, so great in 2018, collapsed in 2019. Not the hitting, most of which came up through the Sox system, but the pitching DD convinced JH to pay top dollar for. So out went DD--also Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers because they were now vastly overpriced. Much was made of the Dodgers winning the 2020 World Series with Mookie, but I find that laughable, given the effect covid had on that season, including players and teams.

 

One year later, 2021, the Sox, with Verdugo sort of replacing Mookie, the Sox made it to the ALCS despite having literally no closer and not much of a rotation. The Dodgers had a lot of high-priced talent that couldn't even win one game in the postseason. Last year, 2022, they lost 3 games to 1 to the Padres in the NLDS.

 

On the other hand, there is what I call the show biz aspect of MLB. You need names to put butts in seats, and the Sox have been slow to recover their pre-covid attendance, which in 2018 was 35,747 and in 2019 was 36,105.

 

This year so far (and the weather has been lousy) it's 30,763. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are filling seats and lead MLB in attendance @ 47,982. The Phillies, now with DD spending freely, are 4th in MLB in attendance with 38,544. Last year they were 16th with 28,459.

 

The Sox are playing pretty good baseball right now, but lack star power, of which Verdugo, Wong, Duran, Yoshida, Turner, Story, Duvall, Chang, Kluber, Winckowski, Schreiber, Crawford, et al have little to none. Devers is our one star who actually delivers. Sale, once a star, is for now a project.

 

You must be one of those "apologists" some talk about.

 

[moonslav59]

And Seattle is doing very little with that windfall. Their 15-16 record is unimpressive enough, but looks even softer when you realize they’re 6-0 vs Oakland and Colorado, two deserving last place teams whose combined record is 18-46…

 

I'd still rather us have Castillo than SEA, although I'm not sure I'd want to pay the price for him.

 

[Hugh2]

I like Cora even with the stealing signs scandal with the Astros. Let's not forget that the Sox indulged in that little game, with Pedroia in the lead and actually proud of it. There can be no doubt that successful sign-stealing--or it's perfectly legal counterpart, being able to real a pitcher's face/hands/arms/body/etc to determine what he is about to throw--gives the hitter a huge advantage. It (sign-stealing) should be combatted/outlawed--as in fact it is.

 

I also like Bloom, mostly because he is the polar opposite of DD. DD defenders rightfully point out that he brought the Sox not only their 4th WS in the JH era, but probably the Sox best team ever. He did that mostly by buying pitchers--Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Kimbrel, and one or two others. And he could do it because the Sox had a lot of good positions players like Betts, Bogaerts, Devers (first year)Benintendi, Holt, JBJ, etc. JDM was a terrific addition by DD to replace the retired Ortiz at DH.

 

On the other hand, that exact same Sox team, so great in 2018, collapsed in 2019. Not the hitting, most of which came up through the Sox system, but the pitching DD convinced JH to pay top dollar for. So out went DD--also Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers because they were now vastly overpriced. Much was made of the Dodgers winning the 2020 World Series with Mookie, but I find that laughable, given the effect covid had on that season, including players and teams.

 

One year later, 2021, the Sox, with Verdugo sort of replacing Mookie, the Sox made it to the ALCS despite having literally no closer and not much of a rotation. The Dodgers had a lot of high-priced talent that couldn't even win one game in the postseason. Last year, 2022, they lost 3 games to 1 to the Padres in the NLDS.

 

On the other hand, there is what I call the show biz aspect of MLB. You need names to put butts in seats, and the Sox have been slow to recover their pre-covid attendance, which in 2018 was 35,747 and in 2019 was 36,105.

 

This year so far (and the weather has been lousy) it's 30,763. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are filling seats and lead MLB in attendance @ 47,982. The Phillies, now with DD spending freely, are 4th in MLB in attendance with 38,544. Last year they were 16th with 28,459.

 

The Sox are playing pretty good baseball right now, but lack star power, of which Verdugo, Wong, Duran, Yoshida, Turner, Story, Duvall, Chang, Kluber, Winckowski, Schreiber, Crawford, et al have little to none. Devers is our one star who actually delivers. Sale, once a star, is for now a project.

 

Teams with “stars” are garbage last place teams right now too. In the end, fans care about wins and losses and when you win….new stars are born.

 

We could be witnessing the birth of 1 or two right now but what might really appease some is “NAME” star power.

 

I’m not concerned with the offense. There’s a nice little star nursery on the team right now. It’s still the pitching tat bothers me though. But you can buy a star or two. Lots of good pitching will be available at the deadline this year

[moonslav59]

Teams with “stars” are garbage last place teams right now too. In the end, fans care about wins and losses and when you win….new stars are born.

 

We could be witnessing the birth of 1 or two right now but what might really appease some is “NAME” star power.

 

I’m not concerned with the offense. There’s a nice little star nursery on the team right now. It’s still the pitching tat bothers me though. But you can buy a star or two. Lots of good pitching will be available at the deadline this year

 

Like who?

[moonslav59]

We certainly have found the groove. I hope we can keep it going and going.

 

As much as I'm loving this, I have to think about some serious flaws we still have not solved- namely our SP'ers.

 

I'm more and more convinced that Sale can give us what we need the rest of the year- maybe not an ace, but more and more solid and dependable as the year progresses.

 

The rest of the rotation is one big question mark, with even Pivetta not being the solid #4/5 he has been since joining the Sox.

 

I'm still hopeful enough of our starters will improve by just enough to contend, but we need to start seeing more proof and more consistency for somebody- anybody!

 

What's not to love about the pen, the line-up and the promise of returning players like Story, Duvall, Mondesi, Joely and maybe even something useful from Paxton, who got the win with Woo, despite walking 5.

 

I'm still cautiously optimistic about the season, and I certainly feel better now than a week ago, but I know some struggles lie ahead for us, unless our starters take control and soon.

[Hugh2]

Like who?

 

Well if we wanna just stick with our division there COLE and Judge in NY. For years the standard was Trout/Ohtani but LA is playing decent.

[Hugh2]

Oakland finished last last season with Sean Murphy. Mariners have a losing record with Castillo and Fernandez. Philly has Schwarber, Harper, and the $300 million dollar man Turner and they’re not looking so great in 4th place.

 

How great does St. Luis look with Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado?

 

Stars alone don’t win you games. It takes a full team. If you look at last years FA class, the top free agents (with an exception) are all performing like garbage right now. Bloom took Stryfe for not signing any “star power” and instead went out and built a bullpen and depth.

 

Yoshida might end up being the best player in that FA class. People get so hung up on who WAS a star and can’t enjoy seeing stars being born right in front of their face.

 

But people can’t except that because their “eye test” is reading what other people say. Like Keith Law who bashed Boston for signing Yoshida and instead insisted they should have used that money on Catcher Wilson Contreras.

 

How’s Yoshida, McGuire and Wong doing BTW? Remember when everyone freaked out because Keith Law said our farm system sucked too.

 

Who was in here telling people to not listen to the hot garbage coming from Law? Hmmmmm who was it…what was that posters name.

Edited May 6, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

Here’s a crazy thought. If the Red Sox had swept the Rays instead of the Rays sweeping them they’d be 24-10, that would be the best record in baseball. The best, they rays would be in 2nd place at 23-10.

 

It’s amazing what a difference ONE series can make. It’s still early, is the main take away, but also that every series matters. This team has been winning series.

[Old Red]

Here’s a crazy thought. If the Red Sox had swept the Rays instead of the Rays sweeping them they’d be 24-10, that would be the best record in baseball. The best, they rays would be in 2nd place at 23-10.

 

It’s amazing what a difference ONE series can make. It’s still early, is the main take away, but also that every series matters. This team has been winning series.

As long as the train is riding in the right direction like it is now don’t get off. Things are rolling right now, and getting help from all different directions, and a much better, and entertaining product to watch from last year when the circus was in town more times than not. Can’t say I like all the Yucking from the YUCKERS in the booth, but it’s bearable when they are winning. Let the good times roll!

[Nick]

It's incredible what has transpired in April.

 

Looks like we have found solid outfield trio in Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo. And I'm not dismissing the return of Duval at some point.

 

And Wong is destined to be our catcher for a long time.

 

At 24 I'm not sure if Valdez doesn't have abetter bat to ball skills than Story. Why not play Story at short in the future?

 

I still see Casas as out future 1B.

 

Go get a top of the line starting pitcher and we can start thinking about the 5th ring.

Edited May 6, 2023 by Nick

[Hugh2]

It's incredible what has transpired in April.

 

Looks like we have found solid outfield trio in Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo. And I'm not dismissing the return of Duval at some point.

 

And Wong is destined to be our catcher for a long time.

 

At 24 I'm not sure if Valdez doesn't have abetter bat to ball skills than Story. Why not play Story at short in the future?

 

I still see Casas as out future 1B.

 

Go get a top of the line starting pitcher and we can start thinking about the 5th ring.

 

It will be interesting to see what transpires at the deadline this year if this team is in it. Rentals have been cheaper in recent years and I think there will be a few guys out there. Giolito and Ohtani should be on the market, maybe Sonny Gray if Minnesota fell apart. Might be a chance to build some rapport with a quality arm and sign them after the season as well.

 

Totally agree on Casas, I’ve been seeing a lot out of him recently that I saw out of Yoshida right before he got hot. He probably ends the season around .250 range but a high OPS because he will get his walks and hit for some power. If the hit tool develops more next year he will be an all star. He’s just SOO big, you know when things clicks he’s going to be hitting mammoth shots with ease. This team is stacked with LHH, it might be nice to add a RH batter at the deadline too, but we might gain that if Duvall comes back strong too. Liking Turner so far, we have good right handed hitters we just don’t have any beasts to hit next to Devers. But can’t complain about what this offense is doing.

 

The pitching is scary, but shows lots of promising.

 

If a man traveled back in time 6 months from now to today and told me that a few injuries really derailed the staff and the team fell apart and hit their way to 82 wins I’d believe it.

 

If that time traveler told me they stayed relatively healthy and most of Kluber/Sale/Whitlock/Bello/Paxton figured it out, the pen was elite and the team wins 95 games I’d believe it.

 

I feel there’s a wide range of outcomes with where this starting rotation will go this year

Edited May 6, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[moonslav59]

Here’s a crazy thought. If the Red Sox had swept the Rays instead of the Rays sweeping them they’d be 24-10, that would be the best record in baseball. The best, they rays would be in 2nd place at 23-10.

 

It’s amazing what a difference ONE series can make. It’s still early, is the main take away, but also that every series matters. This team has been winning series.

 

That's a great example of small sample size judging, and how even 5 weeks of baseball is rather small in the grand scheme of things.

 

Also, it shows the importance of beating the teams you need to pass or stay ahead of in the standings: each game is a 2 game swing.

[Old Red]

It's incredible what has transpired in April.

 

Looks like we have found solid outfield trio in Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo. And I'm not dismissing the return of Duval at some point.

 

And Wong is destined to be our catcher for a long time.

 

At 24 I'm not sure if Valdez doesn't have abetter bat to ball skills than Story. Why not play Story at short in the future?

 

I still see Casas as out future 1B.

 

Go get a top of the line starting pitcher and we can start thinking about the 5th ring.

People were saying that a lot of things had to go right for the Red Sox to be successful this year with a healthy Sale being one of them, but I don’t think the likes of Duran, Valdez, Wong, Wink, and Kut Man as one of those things that had to go right, and all have been major contributors. You just never know.

[moonslav59]

People were saying that a lot of things had to go right for the Red Sox to be successful this year with a healthy Sale being one of them, but I don’t think the likes of Duran, Valdez, Wong, Wink, and Kut Man as one of those things that had to go right, and all have been major contributors. You just never know.

 

It looks like the 3+ years it took Bloom to build up the bottom of 40 man roster depth to respectability, while many of us, myself included, lamented the neglect of the top of the 40, particularly getting us an ace, has finally begun to show some results.

 

We saw some spatterings of success, along the way (Whitlock, Renfroe, Arroyo, Schreiber, Refsnyder, the '21 Kike and a few others,) but not like this.

 

I'd add McGuire to your list.

[Old Red]

It looks like the 3+ years it took Bloom to build up the bottom of 40 man roster depth to respectability, while many of us, myself included, lamented the neglect of the top of the 40, particularly getting us an ace, has finally begun to show some results.

 

We saw some spatterings of success, along the way (Whitlock, Renfroe, Arroyo, Schreiber, Refsnyder, the '21 Kike and a few others,) but not like this.

 

I'd add McGuire to your list.

 

I forgot about Chang too who had solidified the D at SS before he got hurt.

[moonslav59]

Today, the Sox sit all alone with the 5th best record in all of MLB.

 

We are just 1/2 game behind the Pirates and 3 behind the O's for the second best record in MLB.

 

[moonslav59]

I forgot about Chang too who had solidified the D at SS before he got hurt.

 

He was doing well, and did help the D get back to near respectability, but I'm not sure "major" contributor fits. His bat was very bad.

[notin]

I forgot about Chang too who had solidified the D at SS before he got hurt.

 

Despite playing roughly one third the innings of all his counterparts, Yu Chang is still tied for 4th in MLB in DRS…

[Larry Cook]

I am really impressed with yoshida!!!! I will miss tapia when Duvall gets back

[Maxbialystock]

Oakland finished last last season with Sean Murphy. Mariners have a losing record with Castillo and Fernandez. Philly has Schwarber, Harper, and the $300 million dollar man Turner and they’re not looking so great in 4th place.

 

How great does St. Luis look with Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado?

 

Stars alone don’t win you games. It takes a full team. If you look at last years FA class, the top free agents (with an exception) are all performing like garbage right now. Bloom took Stryfe for not signing any “star power” and instead went out and built a bullpen and depth.

 

Yoshida might end up being the best player in that FA class. People get so hung up on who WAS a star and can’t enjoy seeing stars being born right in front of their face.

 

But people can’t except that because their “eye test” is reading what other people say. Like Keith Law who bashed Boston for signing Yoshida and instead insisted they should have used that money on Catcher Wilson Contreras.

 

How’s Yoshida, McGuire and Wong doing BTW? Remember when everyone freaked out because Keith Law said our farm system sucked too.

 

Who was in here telling people to not listen to the hot garbage coming from Law? Hmmmmm who was it…what was that posters name.

 

Let me restate my thesis as simply as possible. I think the Rays have proven that big salaries aren't necessary to build a truly superb MLB team.

 

On the other hand, big salaries do seem to affect attendance favorably.

 

Try this on for size. Last year at this time the Sox were unbelievable losers, but the current Sox are 20-14. But which team had the better attendance? Last year's. They also had Bogey and, for 94 games, Trevor Story.

[Old Red]

He was doing well, and did help the D get back to near respectability, but I'm not sure "major" contributor fits. His bat was very bad.

 

Let’s not forget that there were plenty of bats at that time whose bats were very bad including Yoshida. The thing is too that if Kike hadn’t been sucking at SS at the time, and yes he’s straightened out some, and Arroyo couldn’t hit is what gave Chang the shot in the first place. Then if Chang doesn’t get hurt Valdez doesn’t come up. Also if Duvall doesn’t get hurt Duran doesn’t come up. You never want to see someone get hurt, but wow how have things worked out, because they did. Maybe even Wink, and the Kut Man wouldn’t have been given the roles they did if Paxton, and Bello, and Whit been ready to start the season. Like they say things usually work themselves out.

[Nick]

Moon u should revisit your post #1 in this thread.

 

I'd say you were pretty much on the money except for couple of injured players.

 

You even mentioned Valdez.

Maybe undervalued Winckowski and Kutter.

Well done.

[moonslav59]

Let’s not forget that there were plenty of bats at that time whose bats were very bad including Yoshida. The thing is too that if Kike hadn’t been sucking at SS at the time, and yes he’s straightened out some, and Arroyo couldn’t hit is what gave Chang the shot in the first place. Then if Chang doesn’t get hurt Valdez doesn’t come up. Also if Duvall doesn’t get hurt Duran doesn’t come up. You never want to see someone get hurt, but wow how have things worked out, because they did. Maybe even Wink, and the Kut Man wouldn’t have been given the roles they did if Paxton, and Bello, and Whit been ready to start the season. Like they say things usually work themselves out.

 

Yes, if your glass is half full.

 

Chang stopped the bleeding at SS, and filled an important need. He started 13 games and we went 7-6 in those starts.

[moonslav59]

Moon u should revisit your post #1 in this thread.

 

I'd say you were pretty much on the money except for couple of injured players.

 

You even mentioned Valdez.

Maybe undervalued Winckowski and Kutter.

Well done.

 

I was always high on Valdez. The guy hit very well for two years in the minors, and kills RHPs. I knew he was not good on D, but figured he could platoon 2B, DH or maybe 1B/LF, someday.

 

I didn't expect us to be praising him in May.

 

I was higher on Wink than others, before this year, but that doesn't matter.

 

Crawford surprised me.

[Old Red]

Yes, if your glass is half full.

 

Chang stopped the bleeding at SS, and filled an important need. He started 13 games and we went 7-6 in those starts.

 

My glass is always half full, and I would say Chang has been the best SS we’ve had so far this year, and that 7-6 could have been worse without his D. I’m also pretty sure the team would still be rolling along today if he was still the SS.

[Old Red]

I was always high on Valdez. The guy hit very well for two years in the minors, and kills RHPs. I knew he was not good on D, but figured he could platoon 2B, DH or maybe 1B/LF, someday.

 

I didn't expect us to be praising him in May.

 

I was higher on Wink than others, before this year, but that doesn't matter.

 

Crawford surprised me.

 

The Kut Man had a good stretch last year, but Wink has definitely been the big surprise to me.

[Hugh2]

Let me restate my thesis as simply as possible. I think the Rays have proven that big salaries aren't necessary to build a truly superb MLB team.

 

On the other hand, big salaries do seem to affect attendance favorably.

 

Try this on for size. Last year at this time the Sox were unbelievable losers, but the current Sox are 20-14. But which team had the better attendance? Last year's. They also had Bogey and, for 94 games, Trevor Story.

 

Teams with big attendance feel the pressure to keep winning and the money flowing in. They also have the money because they have the attendance because they’re in larger markets. It works both ways.

 

If the Sox keep winning, they will be sold out. I believe that.

 

Think of it like this. Considered how they’ve played the last few weeks are you more or less likely to go to a game right now compared towards your feelings on the team a few months ago?

 

I know I am.

[Hugh2]

Let’s not forget that there were plenty of bats at that time whose bats were very bad including Yoshida. The thing is too that if Kike hadn’t been sucking at SS at the time, and yes he’s straightened out some, and Arroyo couldn’t hit is what gave Chang the shot in the first place. Then if Chang doesn’t get hurt Valdez doesn’t come up. Also if Duvall doesn’t get hurt Duran doesn’t come up. You never want to see someone get hurt, but wow how have things worked out, because they did. Maybe even Wink, and the Kut Man wouldn’t have been given the roles they did if Paxton, and Bello, and Whit been ready to start the season. Like they say things usually work themselves out.

 

Idk know if there’s any weight behind this but it’s been said Kike always hits better when he plays 2nd, he also fields a much better 2nD too. If that was true Chung reset the defense and made the offense better, if not it’s still upgraded the defense, if him or story can come back strong at SS and push Kike to 2nd, then with Durans emergence in CF this lineup looks better than I thought they would be.