A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Nate is en fuego.

 

Who does this anymore?

 

IP /ER

9.0/ 0

8.0/ 0

8.2/ 0

 

Total:

25.2 IP

11 Hits

3 BB

25 Ks

 

He had a 5.20 ERA after 5 starts.

 

 

[moonslav59]

An early look at who might be sellers, at the deadline:

 

Potential sellers at 2023 MLB Trade Deadline

WWW.MLB.COM

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There are more than 11 weeks until the Trade Deadline, but with the quarter mark of the regular season rapidly approaching, front offices around baseball are beginning to assess where their teams stand. Eight teams entered Thursday with winning percentages of .444 or lower, which over the course of a

[vegasbob]

Bogaerts: 1.2 WAR, 6 HRs, .808

We traded for Mondesi: bupkis

 

And San Diego with Bogaerts performing very well, plus Machado, Tatis and whatever else are 19-19. But it's early

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And San Diego with Bogaerts performing very well, plus Machado, Tatis and whatever else are 19-19. But it's early

 

It's never early for the good teams, just those underperforming. It's baseball season.

 

The Padres' third-best starter is Wacha, with a 4.82 ERA. Every Red Sox starter is over 5....

[Nick]

Some updates on IL players

 

1. Rodriquez maybe activated Monday game vs Mariners.

 

2. Withlock to start for AAA affiliate on Tuesday. Cora thinks he'll need at least two starts.

 

3. Kutter is expected to return on May 19th when the Sox travels to San Diego. We really need this guy.

 

It's not stated as such but looks like Trevor Story is ahead of Mondesi. I don't get the feeling Mondesi will return in June.

[moonslav59]

Some updates on IL players

 

1. Rodriquez maybe activated Monday game vs Mariners.

 

2. Withlock to start for AAA affiliate on Tuesday. Cora thinks he'll need at least two starts.

 

3. Kutter is expected to return on May 19th when the Sox travels to San Diego. We really need this guy.

 

It's not stated as such but looks like Trevor Story is ahead of Mondesi. I don't get the feeling Mondesi will return in June.

 

How could they not know about Mondesi's ETA. when they traded for him? (Or, did they?)

[Bellhorn04]

How could they not know about Mondesi's ETA. when they traded for him? (Or, did they?)

 

They didn't give up much for Mondesi, so expectations were presumably low.

 

(I seem to be back in Bloom Pollyanna mode.)

[moonslav59]

They didn't give up much for Mondesi, so expectations were presumably low.

 

(I seem to be back in Bloom Pollyanna mode.)

 

I was thinking more about not adding Adrus or someone a little better than Chang.

[Nick]

Casas has an OPS above 1.000 for the month of May. We have to stay with this kid. Hell, bat him in the 9th. His ceiling is too high He needs a long leash.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Casas has an OPS above 1.000 for the month of May. We have to stay with this kid. Hell, bat him in the 9th. His ceiling is too high He needs a long leash.

 

Sox are 1/2 game out of last place. Teams like that invest in better futures by sticking with guys who show promise... like Casas, Bello, Duran, Valdez, Wong... even Devers and Verdugo (just entering their primes).

[Hugh2]

Casas has an OPS above 1.000 for the month of May. We have to stay with this kid. Hell, bat him in the 9th. His ceiling is too high He needs a long leash.

 

3 weeks ago I was beating the Casas will be elite drum despite pushback from seemingly everyone.

 

My reasoning was simple, and I said the same thing about Yoshida. His plate approach is elite, he was still walking and was top 10 in all of MLB in pitches seen per plate appearance. No one can have that elite knowledge of a strike zone and not eventually hit. Also, as a rabid follower of prospects I saw Casas briefly struggle after a few promotions only to quickly figure it out.

 

You have to look at more than just a BA. The kid has the plate discipline we wish Devers had that would truly make him elite. Will Casas be that guy? I think if he can hit LHP better he could be. Now we just need a RHB for the next several years to split Devers and Casas.

 

Even in the minors it’s absolutely INSANE how many LHB this teams has.

[Hugh2]

Let me reiterate a point from above.

 

YOU CAN NOT just go by batting average. Especially in a small sample size. It’s a lesson some just never learn. There’s so much happening with a guy in the minors that you never see or know. But the team does.

 

Here’s a perfect example. Jarren Duran.

 

He was batting .195 in AAA before he got called up.

 

If we went with Arm chair GMs take on stat hunting we’d have moved Kike to CF and brought Hamilton up to play SS, and that might have been a disaster. But aren’t you happy they saw what lies underneath and called up Duran? I certainly am.

 

Because sometimes talk like it’s advance stats vs. “the eye test” ummmm, it’s both.

[moonslav59]

Let me reiterate a point from above.

 

YOU CAN NOT just go by batting average. Especially in a small sample size. It’s a lesson some just never learn. There’s so much happening with a guy in the minors that you never see or know. But the team does.

 

Here’s a perfect example. Jarren Duran.

 

He was batting .195 in AAA before he got called up.

 

If we went with Arm chair GMs take on stat hunting we’d have moved Kike to CF and brought Hamilton up to play SS, and that might have been a disaster. But aren’t you happy they saw what lies underneath and called up Duran? I certainly am.

 

Because sometimes talk like it’s advance stats vs. “the eye test” ummmm, it’s both.

 

Well said. I will add that the Duran and Casas sample sizes of success in MLB are pretty small.

 

They both deserve longer looks/leashes, for sure.

[moonslav59]

The Yanks have closed the gap on us to a half game (loss column.)

 

In a way, 2 of the 3 teams just behind us worry me more than the 2 ahead of us:

 

25-13 BAL

22-16 TOR

22-17 BOS___

22-18 NYY -0.5

21-18 LAA -1.0

20-18 HOU -1.5

19-19 SEA (worries me more than LAA)

 

We currently have the 7th best record in MLB and are...

 

3.5 games from #2 (ATL/BAL)

2.0 games from #4 (LAD)

1.5 games from #5 (TEX)

0.5 games from #7 (TOR)

 

but also...

 

0.5 from #8 and missing the WC slot (NYY & MIL)

1.0 from 4 teams at 21-18 (MIN, LAA, PIT, AZ)

1.5 from #15 (HOU)

2.5 from the bottom half (CHC, PHI, SEA) at .500

3.0 from #19, 20, 21 (MIA, NYM, SDP) at 19-20

 

We are basically a 3 or 4 game winning or losing streak away from a major ranking shift.

 

 

[notin]

Let me reiterate a point from above.

 

YOU CAN NOT just go by batting average. Especially in a small sample size. It’s a lesson some just never learn. There’s so much happening with a guy in the minors that you never see or know. But the team does.

 

Here’s a perfect example. Jarren Duran.

 

He was batting .195 in AAA before he got called up.

 

If we went with Arm chair GMs take on stat hunting we’d have moved Kike to CF and brought Hamilton up to play SS, and that might have been a disaster. But aren’t you happy they saw what lies underneath and called up Duran? I certainly am.

 

Because sometimes talk like it’s advance stats vs. “the eye test” ummmm, it’s both.

 

Of course, at some point the Sox might as well give Hamilton a look. If nothing else, he’s a defensive upgrade over Valdez…

[Bellhorn04]

Sox are 1/2 game out of last place.

 

But also in the last Wild Card spot.

[moonslav59]

Of course, at some point the Sox might as well give Hamilton a look. If nothing else, he’s a defensive upgrade over Valdez…

 

He's not really that good on D, although probably better than Valdez. I'm thinking Kike is better on D at SS, despite that first 8 game start.

 

I'm not sure when Arroyo is due back, but I don't see us demoting Valdez. Hamilton also bats lefty.

 

Worst DRS in 2013

-4 Casas 1B

-3 McGuire C

-3 Valdez 2B

-2 Kike SS

-2 Yoshida LF

-2 Jansen P

-1 Arroyo 2B, Kike 2B, Tapia RF, Arroyo SS, Duvall CF

 

Many zeroes

 

Only 4 pluses:

+5 Wong C

+4 Verdugo RF

+3 Chang SS

+1 Tapia

 

UZR/150

-42 Duvall CF

-25 Kike CF

-22 Tapia LF

-15 Kike SS

-10 Yoshida LF

-9.5 Tapia RF

-7.6 Valdez 2B

-5.1 Tapia CF

-1.3 Kike 2B

 

Plus

0.2 Casas 1B

2.1 Turner 1B (in 1/5th the time)

2.3 Arroyo SS

4.3 Arroyo 2B

4.3 Ref LF

4.7 Devers 3B

7.9 Dugo RF

12 Chang SS (just 91 innings)

30 Duran CF

68 Ref CF 9just 16 innings)

 

[moonslav59]

But also in the last Wild Card spot.

 

It's the watered down league. It can't possibly be because we have outplayed our opponents, while playing the toughest schedule to date.

[moonslav59]

Team OPS by Position

 

1.033 CF (Duvall & Duran)

 

.843 RF (Dugo)

.837 3B (Devers)

.823 DH (Turner)

.818 LF (Yoshida)

.769 C (Wong/McGuire)

 

.690 1B (Casas)

.659 2B (Arroyo/Valdez/Kike)

.632 SS (Kike/Chang)

 

By Batting Slot

.889 5th

.872 2nd

.841 8th

.816 6th

.808 1st (.353 OBP)

.780 4th

.715 3rd (kinda proves how the 3 slot is over-rated)

.700 7th

.687 9th

 

Pretty balanced line-up with no slots below .687 and the 7-9 slots pulling a .743 OPS.

 

A look at the ALE and batting slots:

 

1-2

.971 TBR

.839 BOS

.822 BAL

.767 TOR

.739 NYY

 

3-6

.839 TBR

.806 TOR

.800 BOS

.782 NYY

.736 BAL

 

7-9

.797 TBR

.743 BOS

.732 BAL

.639 TOR

.581 NYY

 

NYY is bottom 2 in all 3 areas and TOR is bottom 2 in two of the 3 areas.

[Nick]

Kike is simply out of control. The game should have been tied 3-3.

 

He is playing like a 12year old mentally.

[notin]

It's the watered down league. It can't possibly be because we have outplayed our opponents, while playing the toughest schedule to date.

 

But only the Sox opponents are watered down!

[Nick]

I am encouraged by this group.

 

Sale looks to be healthy. Paxton may force s starter to the pen which will lengthen it.

 

Waiting anxiously for Whitlock and Kutter to return.

[notin]

I am encouraged by this group.

 

Sale looks to be healthy. Paxton may force s starter to the pen which will lengthen it.

 

Waiting anxiously for Whitlock and Kutter to return.

 

 

As good as Kutter has been, he does have options and he can be demoted due to the overcrowding…

[Maxbialystock]

I am encouraged by this group.

 

Sale looks to be healthy. Paxton may force s starter to the pen which will lengthen it.

 

Waiting anxiously for Whitlock and Kutter to return.

 

You betcha. What a difference one little week can make. Sale reconfirms his ace status. Paxton has an amazing first start. Bello looks good (still needs command). Kluber is a junker, but has figured out how to make it work. Houck pitched a third time to the top four Phillies hitters and got a K, popup, groundout, and a single by Bryce Harper. Suddenly, in the blink of an eye, Cora has the option of not starting Pivetta.

 

On the other hand, into every Sox fan's life a little rain must fall, and last night and today suggest the bullpen just might be in shambles. Jansen stunk badly in back to back games. He's our $16M closer--well, closer and opener/welcomer whom Cardinal fans just love to death. Winck got hammered for 3 runs. Cora used Jansen today because apparently he does not think any other pitcher on the Sox is able to get a one inning save with a 2 run lead.

 

Let me repeat that. Jansen looks awful, and Cora insists he's the only guy who can close.

[Larry Cook]

I am encouraged by this group.

 

Sale looks to be healthy. Paxton may force s starter to the pen which will lengthen it.

 

Waiting anxiously for Whitlock and Kutter to return.

 

Whitlock and houck need to be in the bullpen

[Hugh2]

You betcha. What a difference one little week can make. Sale reconfirms his ace status. Paxton has an amazing first start. Bello looks good (still needs command). Kluber is a junker, but has figured out how to make it work. Houck pitched a third time to the top four Phillies hitters and got a K, popup, groundout, and a single by Bryce Harper. Suddenly, in the blink of an eye, Cora has the option of not starting Pivetta.

 

On the other hand, into every Sox fan's life a little rain must fall, and last night and today suggest the bullpen just might be in shambles. Jansen stunk badly in back to back games. He's our $16M closer--well, closer and opener/welcomer whom Cardinal fans just love to death. Winck got hammered for 3 runs. Cora used Jansen today because apparently he does not think any other pitcher on the Sox is able to get a one inning save with a 2 run lead.

 

Let me repeat that. Jansen looks awful, and Cora insists he's the only guy who can close.

 

Any Manager would have put Jansen in there yesterday. At that point he had looked dominant and blew one save (not much help from the defense). Anyone would have figured it’s best to throw him right back out there and shake it off.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Any Manager would have put Jansen in there yesterday. At that point he had looked dominant and blew one save (not much help from the defense). Anyone would have figured it’s best to throw him right back out there and shake it off.

 

I agree with this... unless Jansen's isn't 100 percent (which they'll prob never admit to, but then again, most ballplayers compete with assorted aches and pains).

 

What I'll never agree with is just riding out the season -- pretending to contend -- without an authentic reliable defensive shortstop.

 

The Sox just signed Pablo Reyes and put him at second base, but he's played every position in the majors except 1B and C (gotta love that versatility). Reyes was acquired from the Oakland, where he couldn't make the A's, the team with the worst record in baseball.

[Old Red]

What a difference a week makes. Last week the Red Sox were riding high on a 8 game winning streak, and have gone 1-4 since. The Red Sox now are losing games like they were winning before, and the stage has kind of flipped flopped, which will happen in a long season. The BP, which has pretty much carried the starters the first part of the season have started to implode, and the rotation especially the last two games have pitched real well. Especially tough yesterday wasting a 110 pitch effort for Sale.

[Bellhorn04]

What a difference a week makes. Last week the Red Sox were riding high on a 8 game winning streak, and have gone 1-4 since. The Red Sox now are losing games like they were winning before, and the stage has kind of flipped flopped, which will happen in a long season. The BP, which has pretty much carried the starters the first part of the season have started to implode, and the rotation especially the last two games have pitched real well. Especially tough yesterday wasting a 110 pitch effort for Sale.

 

That's baseball, man. It's what happens when you play every day.

[Bellhorn04]

The AL Beast is unbelievable right now.