A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Nick]

They are SHORT TERM contracts to get us to the next generation of Red Sox players. If they gave Jansen a 5 year deal, it would be a problem. There is no issue year. The plan is to not tie the team down financially long term and begin to offer extensions to their younger players and obtain other young players via trades for players from their solid farm system. At least I hope that's the plan.

This +1000

 

Bello Whitlock is our future. Kluber is a placeholder for Mata

[Nick]

#1 Identify the core group. 4+ years of team control.

#2 Fill the roster around them....

#3 Wait for youngsters to develop...Casas as an example....lock him down after this year

#4 Extend Devers for 8 years

..trade him he rejects the offer

#5 Xander who?

[mvp 78]

This +1000

 

Bello Whitlock is our future. Kluber is a placeholder for Mata

 

Timeline for future potential starters:

Mata - ready now, but better suited for bullpen role IMO

Walter - mid-2023 if healthy

Murphy - mid-2023 if he can continue to get LHB out

Drohan - 2024, swingman or relief profile

Wikelman - 2025

Perales - 2025

Uberstine - 2025, swingman or relief profile

ERC - 2026

Paez - 2026

 

Aside from Mata, the remaining impact arms don't show up until 2025/2026. The only way to get one sooner would be through trade.

[mvp 78]

#1 Identify the core group. 4+ years of team control.

#2 Fill the roster around them....

#3 Wait for youngsters to develop...Casas as an example....lock him down after this year

#4 Extend Devers for 8 years

..trade him he rejects the offer

#5 Xander who?

 

The frustration most people feel is that the roster still doesn't feel filled. What is the solution at SS? What is the solution at RF? Will the SP hold up? Will they extend Devers? People generally had little confidence in Bloom to begin with so when the bottom predictably fell out at the end of the winter meetings, everyone was ready to pounce.

[notin]

Sox should have locked up two of Betts, Bogaerts and Devers. They didn't. Now they probably will all be out the door. It's pretty sad and dumb. Ownership and front office is at fault here for sure. It's an embarrassment.

 

It seems like if you want to lock a player up to one of those teams-friendly deals, you need to sign him after 2-3 years at the latest. That’s what Tampa and Atlanta keep doing. By the time players reach arbitration, it’s too late.

 

The Sox keep waiting until a player has 4-5 years of service time, and the closest thing to an extension was getting Bogaerts for 3 years.

 

Really what Bloom should have done was extend Devers right after trading Betts (with a deal that didn’t start until 2021 to allow the precious reset). That’s would have gotten him locked up and at least allowed for some positive PR after the massive negative PR move of trading Betts…

[Hugh2]

If they had extended Benintendi it would have probably been at pretty reasonable dollars. As long as the prospect doesn't completely bust, it's generally worth the risk. Beni would have been fine to extend.

 

With JBJ, we had already seen a VERY volatile bat. Even though he had a great 2016, he was a rollercoaster afterwards (and it wasn't a much better picture before). The 850 OPS for JBJ occurred exactly NEVER. He never had a season where he OPS'd 840.

 

I don't agree on JBJ. At that point in time he had two back to back .800 OPS seasons, and his struggles was looking entirely due to being rushed to the majors.

 

I'm all for signing early extensions, I think the Sox are stupid for not to have jumped on board here sooner, but that doesn't mean you're not going to get burned sometimes. Still, I'd take the lumps of coal here and there all day long with that strategy.

[mvp 78]

It seems like if you want to lock a player up to one of those teams-friendly deals, you need to sign him after 2-3 years at the latest. That’s what Tampa and Atlanta keep doing. By the time players reach arbitration, it’s too late.

 

The Sox keep waiting until a player has 4-5 years of service time, and the closest thing to an extension was getting Bogaerts for 3 years.

 

Really what Bloom should have done was extend Devers right after trading Betts (with a deal that didn’t start until 2021 to allow the precious reset). That’s would have gotten him locked up and at least allowed for some positive PR after the massive negative PR move of trading Betts…

 

Agree. They need to start locking up Bello, Casas and anyone else that their scouting has determined will be a long time contributor. Waiting until arb raise time is a bad decision. It should be done after their first or second full MLB season.

 

They still should extend Devers though.

[mvp 78]

I don't agree on JBJ. At that point in time he had two back to back .800 OPS seasons, and his struggles was looking entirely due to being rushed to the majors.

 

I'm all for signing early extensions, I think the Sox are stupid for not to have jumped on board here sooner, but that doesn't mean you're not going to get burned sometimes. Still, I'd take the lumps of coal here and there all day long with that strategy.

 

And if they had signed JBJ to an Ozzie Albies deal after 2016, we still wouldn't have regretted it.

[Hugh2]

And if they had signed JBJ to an Ozzie Albies deal after 2016, we still wouldn't have regretted it.

 

No, I'd be fine if he was here as a 4th outfielder making that.

[Bellhorn04]

#1 Identify the core group. 4+ years of team control.

#2 Fill the roster around them....

#3 Wait for youngsters to develop...Casas as an example....lock him down after this year

#4 Extend Devers for 8 years

..trade him he rejects the offer

#5 Xander who?

 

Agree in general, but not sure what the Xander who? thing is about. Can't we appreciate what a good player and quality guy he is?

[notin]

Agree in general, but not sure what the Xander who? thing is about. Can't we appreciate what a good player and quality guy he is?

 

I am less upset about losing Xander than Betts and potentially Devers. His bat played, but I just didn’t like him much as a shortstop. And I don’t know how he felt about changing positions…

[Old Red]

#1 Identify the core group. 4+ years of team control.

#2 Fill the roster around them....

#3 Wait for youngsters to develop...Casas as an example....lock him down after this year

#4 Extend Devers for 8 years

..trade him he rejects the offer

#5 Xander who?

 

Xander who? You mean the future HOF who won two championships with the Red Sox, and was a model Red Sox on, and off the field. A future HOF is who!

[Bellhorn04]

I am less upset about losing Xander than Betts and potentially Devers. His bat played, but I just didn’t like him much as a shortstop. And I don’t know how he felt about changing positions…

 

Betts is the only one of the three who's a "complete player".

[Nick]

My choice for ss at this point would be Jose Iglesias. He would be my 'placeholder' for either Mayer or Rafaela. I get the sense that Rafaela is more ready now than Mayer. Sox is high on Rafaela at multiple positions. Eventually they will both be starters in my opinion.

 

As a side note, please do not get cute and move Story to shortstop. That's is all we need is for him to get hurt playing short. Keep him at second base, PERIOD. I will be PISSED at Bloom if a move is made.

[Nick]

Xander who? You mean the future HOF who won two championships with the Red Sox, and was a model Red Sox on, and off the field. A future HOF is who!

 

Yeah, what about it? He was a great player for the Sox. He is NOT on my roster. He plays for the Padres. Come on Red. He took the most money and I'm happy for him.

I've been a Sox fan since 1967. Great ones come and go.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agree. They need to start locking up Bello, Casas and anyone else that their scouting has determined will be a long time contributor. Waiting until arb raise time is a bad decision. It should be done after their first or second full MLB season.

 

They still should extend Devers though.

 

They should, but it would be an absolute shock. Giving anyone a mega longterm contract for top-of-the-market rates goes against every plan we've seen that the Red Sox won't admit to. If Bloom caves now, it will be like admitting the past three years were a mistake in many ways.

 

This may sound unsound, but the worst thing to do with Devers is nothing, even if he hits 63 homers (like Chaim hopes) in Boston in '23. Hopefully, the front office won't be spineless in the face of public scrutiny. Considering how opaque the org has been, that shouldn't be an issue.

 

The Red Sox can finish last again with Raffy or without, but we can all agree it will suck more if the clubhouse, media and fandom have to go through a repeat of the Bogaerts fiasco.

 

Extend Devers or trade Devers before Opening Day. No in-between.

[Nick]

With sincere apology to Red, let's talk about 2023 and beyond.

 

Following players will be with us 4+ years, counting the options. Hopefully we can add Devers name to it for 8 years.

 

Top tier players (in my projection)

 

6 Casas (1B)

6 Whitlock (SP)

6 Bello (SP)

6 Kutter (P)

6 Mata (SP)

5 Story (2B)

5 Yoshida (LF/DH)

5 Houck (P)

4 Schreiber (RP)

 

Others

6 Wong ©

6 Seabold (P)

6 Duran (OF)

6 Mills (P)

6 Winckowski (P)

6 K. Ort (P)

6 German (P)

4 Dalbec (IB/3B/DH)

4 Darwinzon (RP)

 

I'm sure some will be a flop or already is one. I enjoy watching someone like Bello pitch. Great thing about TV is I can always turn it off.

 

I'm probably little more optimistic than most of you. Having won 4 rings over the last 20 years probably has great deal to do with my optimism.

 

PS. I just don't like Bloom telling Kike "we're be MUCH better". Hopefully he was misquoted. Maybe said something like "we MAY BE MUCH BETTER".

[mvp 78]

Xander who? You mean the future HOF who won two championships with the Red Sox, and was a model Red Sox on, and off the field. A future HOF is who!

 

Not a future HOFer.

 

Top 10 MVP vote finishes: 2X. Top 10 most WAR finishes: 0X.

[Nick]

Agree in general, but not sure what the Xander who? thing is about. Can't we appreciate what a good player and quality guy he is?

 

I can be a dick sometimes. Probably trying to get a rise out of one of you. I really have tremendous respect for all these guys, even Brasier.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, what about it? He was a great player for the Sox. He is NOT on my roster. He plays for the Padres. Come on Red. He took the most money and I'm happy for him.

I've been a Sox fan since 1967. Great ones come and go.

 

That's true, but if we lose Devers, you'll have a hard time finding a comp for the Red Sox losing 3 players like Betts, Bogaerts and Devers at the ages they stopped playing for us...

 

In fact you might have to look at the Expos to find a comp for this.

[mvp 78]

Betts is the only one of the three who's a "complete player".

 

Agree. Devers glove just hasn't been consistent enough. Still worth whatever $$$ someone will through at him.

[mvp 78]

My choice for ss at this point would be Jose Iglesias. He would be my 'placeholder' for either Mayer or Rafaela. I get the sense that Rafaela is more ready now than Mayer. Sox is high on Rafaela at multiple positions. Eventually they will both be starters in my opinion.

 

As a side note, please do not get cute and move Story to shortstop. That's is all we need is for him to get hurt playing short. Keep him at second base, PERIOD. I will be PISSED at Bloom if a move is made.

 

It think it's more likely than not that he's going to SS and I agree that it's the wrong decision.

[mvp 78]

They should, but it would be an absolute shock. Giving anyone a mega longterm contract for top-of-the-market rates goes against every plan we've seen that the Red Sox won't admit to. If Bloom caves now, it will be like admitting the past three years were a mistake in many ways.

 

This may sound unsound, but the worst thing to do with Devers is nothing, even if he hits 63 homers (like Chaim hopes) in Boston in '23. Hopefully, the front office won't be spineless in the face of public scrutiny. Considering how opaque the org has been, that shouldn't be an issue.

 

The Red Sox can finish last again with Raffy or without, but we can all agree it will suck more if the clubhouse, media and fandom have to go through a repeat of the Bogaerts fiasco.

 

Extend Devers or trade Devers before Opening Day. No in-between.

 

Yup. Bloom claimed "(Devers) is at the center of everything we are trying to do." Time will tell if that's the case.

[mvp 78]

That's true, but if we lose Devers, you'll have a hard time finding a comp for the Red Sox losing 3 players like Betts, Bogaerts and Devers at the ages they stopped playing for us...

 

In fact you might have to look at the Expos to find a comp for this.

 

Dawson and Carter OR Walker, Grissom, DeShields?

[Old Red]

Yeah, what about it? He was a great player for the Sox. He is NOT on my roster. He plays for the Padres. Come on Red. He took the most money and I'm happy for him.

I've been a Sox fan since 1967. Great ones come and go.

 

First Mookie then Bogey, and next Raffy. Doesn’t seem like a good way to go to me, and then to pin all the hopes on the Casas, Bello, and Mayer to be just as good. Doesn’t sound like a winning formula to me.

[Old Red]

With sincere apology to Red, let's talk about 2023 and beyond.

 

Following players will be with us 4+ years, counting the options. Hopefully we can add Devers name to it for 8 years.

 

Top tier players (in my projection)

 

6 Casas (1B)

6 Whitlock (SP)

6 Bello (SP)

6 Kutter (P)

6 Mata (SP)

5 Story (2B)

5 Yoshida (LF/DH)

5 Houck (P)

4 Schreiber (RP)

 

Others

6 Wong ©

6 Seabold (P)

6 Duran (OF)

6 Mills (P)

6 Winckowski (P)

6 K. Ort (P)

6 German (P)

4 Dalbec (IB/3B/DH)

4 Darwinzon (RP)

 

I'm sure some will be a flop or already is one. I enjoy watching someone like Bello pitch. Great thing about TV is I can always turn it off.

 

I'm probably little more optimistic than most of you. Having won 4 rings over the last 20 years probably has great deal to do with my optimism.

 

PS. I just don't like Bloom telling Kike "we're be MUCH better". Hopefully he was misquoted. Maybe said something like "we MAY BE MUCH BETTER".

 

5 short years ago the Red Sox had their best season ever, and won a WS. The team was loaded with young homegrown players, and the future looked real promising. Now there is just one of those good young players left who is most likely out the door after this year, and this is where we are at today. Definitely steps going backwards, but some seem to be alright with that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yup. Bloom claimed "(Devers) is at the center of everything we are trying to do." Time will tell if that's the case.

 

The clever wordsmith is covered either way: "the center" could mean nucleus of the future core, or centerpiece of an upcoming blockbuster (that better bring more core infusions).

[moonslav59]

Timeline for future potential starters:

Mata - ready now, but better suited for bullpen role IMO

Walter - mid-2023 if healthy

Murphy - mid-2023 if he can continue to get LHB out

Drohan - 2024, swingman or relief profile

Wikelman - 2025

Perales - 2025

Uberstine - 2025, swingman or relief profile

ERC - 2026

Paez - 2026

 

Aside from Mata, the remaining impact arms don't show up until 2025/2026. The only way to get one sooner would be through trade.

 

No love for Santa... errr...I mean Santos?

[mvp 78]

No love for Santa... errr...I mean Santos?

 

He's not even a top 60 prospect in the system. There's no reason to mention him.

[moonslav59]

My choice for ss at this point would be Jose Iglesias. He would be my 'placeholder' for either Mayer or Rafaela. I get the sense that Rafaela is more ready now than Mayer. Sox is high on Rafaela at multiple positions. Eventually they will both be starters in my opinion.

 

As a side note, please do not get cute and move Story to shortstop. That's is all we need is for him to get hurt playing short. Keep him at second base, PERIOD. I will be PISSED at Bloom if a move is made.

 

I think the issue with Andrus is he probably wants 3 years, and we are looking for a 1 year placeholder. That might be a guy like Iggy, but defensively, he's not the same Iggy. Signing Iggy might mean the best defensive alignment would be Iggy at 2B and Story at SS.

 

Miguel Rojas is clearly on the trading block. He was before they signed Segura to play 2B and move Chisholm to SS.

 

We could probably get him for Duran & Murphy or better yet, Duran and Dalbec.