A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

The clever wordsmith is covered either way: "the center" could mean nucleus of the future core, or centerpiece of an upcoming blockbuster (that better bring more core infusions).

 

Well as long as they are either going to extend him or trade him, I'm fine with it. They can't do what they did with Xander in 2022.

[mvp 78]

I think the issue with Andrus is he probably wants 3 years, and we are looking for a 1 year placeholder. That might be a guy like Iggy, but defensively, he's not the same Iggy. Signing Iggy might mean the best defensive alignment would be Iggy at 2B and Story at SS.

 

Miguel Rojas is clearly on the trading block. He was before they signed Segura to play 2B and move Chisholm to SS.

 

We could probably get him for Duran & Murphy or better yet, Duran and Dalbec.

 

Why are you trying to overpay for Rojas?

[moonslav59]

5 short years ago the Red Sox had their best season ever, and won a WS. The team was loaded with young homegrown players, and the future looked real promising. Now there is just one of those good young players left who is most likely out the door after this year, and this is where we are at today. Definitely steps going backwards, but some seem to be alright with that.

 

5 years is "short," except when we bring up the idea of a 5 year plan, I guess.

 

2018 Youngsters:

22 Devers (called up mid '17)

24 Beni (had 4 yrs of control left, after '18 and barely matched his '18 numbers, again)

24 T-W Lin

25 Sam Travis

25 Beeks (traded away by DD for 2 months of Nate)

25 ERod (nobody is talking about letting him walk. I wonder why.)

26 Poyner

26 Betts (had 2 yrs of team control remaining after '18)

26 Bogey (was extended with an opt out)

26 Swihart

 

If three or four means "loaded," then yes, we were.

 

Were we "loaded" with young stars (26 or under)when Bloom took over after 2019?

 

(I don't expect an answer.)

[moonslav59]

Well as long as they are either going to extend him or trade him, I'm fine with it. They can't do what they did with Xander in 2022.

 

Agreed, and don't wait for the deadline, either.

[notin]

Why are you trying to overpay for Rojas?

 

Miami would be insane to turn down Duran for 34yo Miguel Rojas, especially given their (lack of) outfield depth and surplus middle infield…

[Old Red]

Well as long as they are either going to extend him or trade him, I'm fine with it. They can't do what they did with Xander in 2022.

 

Not only do I believe they can, but I believe they will. Why would you think Bloom would not do that?

[moonslav59]

Why are you trying to overpay for Rojas?

 

I don't think MIA gives up Rojas for just Duran, despite BTV saying they would.

 

I'm not high on Murphy or Dalbec. I'd have to think long and hard about the Duran-Murphy package, but it's a close call.

 

Duran and Dalbec, I'd do 100 out of a 100 times.

 

I like defensive SS more than most. That's my short answer.

[moonslav59]

Miami would be insane to turn down Duran for 34yo Miguel Rojas, especially given their (lack of) outfield depth and surplus middle infield…

 

Then, let's get it done- YESTERDAY!

[Old Red]

5 years is "short," except when we bring up the idea of a 5 year plan, I guess.

 

2018 Youngsters:

22 Devers (called up mid '17)

24 Beni (had 4 yrs of control left, after '18 and barely matched his '18 numbers, again)

24 T-W Lin

25 Sam Travis

25 Beeks (traded away by DD for 2 months of Nate)

25 ERod (nobody is talking about letting him walk. I wonder why.)

26 Poyner

26 Betts (had 2 yrs of team control remaining after '18)

26 Bogey (was extended with an opt out)

26 Swihart

 

If three or four means "loaded," then yes, we were.

 

Were we "loaded" with young stars (26 or under)when Bloom took over after 2019?

 

(I don't expect an answer.)

A starting OF, a 3B, and SS, and Vaz got playing time at C, so that seems like more than 3, or 4. ERod was promising, and so was Barnes. Look at where Bloom has got the Red Sox today, and you think the Red Sox are better off.

[moonslav59]

A starting OF, a 3B, and SS, and Vaz got playing time at C, so that seems like more than 3, or 4. ERod was promising, and so was Barnes. Look at where Bloom has got the Red Sox today, and you think the Red Sox are better off.

 

Vaz and Barnes were 28 in 2018- both turned 29 during the 2019 season.

 

Maybe we disagree what "young" means. I also remember me getting a lot of grief for supporting the Barnes extension. Nobody is talking ab out that one or the letting go of ERod. It doesn't fit the prevailing narrative about us not extending young homegrown players (Barnes) or keeping our proven good players (ERod.)

 

The Whitlock extension is mentioned quite often as was the Bogey extension that added one year of team control before the opt out kicked in.

 

It would have been great to extend Betts, Bogey, Devers and even it it meant we also missed on a few like ERod, JBJ, Barnes, and maybe Vaz & Beni. Ideally, it should have been done prior to 2018, or right afterwards, but it seems like 2019 was when JH started turning the screws on the budget.

[mvp 78]

Not only do I believe they can, but I believe they will. Why would you think Bloom would not do that?

 

I didn't say they won't, I said they can't, which means they shouldn't. If they go into the season that way, it would be a big mistake.

[mvp 78]

A starting OF, a 3B, and SS, and Vaz got playing time at C, so that seems like more than 3, or 4. ERod was promising, and so was Barnes. Look at where Bloom has got the Red Sox today, and you think the Red Sox are better off.

 

I don't think they are better off yet.

 

Casas, Bleis and Mayer could be in the conversation with Betts, Devers and Xander someday. Rafaela? He's probably closer to that JBJ tier. Romero and Anthony could be on that Beni tier.

[moonslav59]

A starting OF, a 3B, and SS, and Vaz got playing time at C, so that seems like more than 3, or 4. ERod was promising, and so was Barnes. Look at where Bloom has got the Red Sox today, and you think the Red Sox are better off.

 

Those guys should have been extended under DD. I'm not sure why you never mention that. Bogey would likely have signed a $25M x 6, 7 or 8 year deal without an opt-out had DD offered it.

 

As for the Sox not being better off. I expected them not to be once 2019 showed the writing on the wall that many of us saw coming. So it's not about me trying to say we are better off. It's about this need to assign blame on just one guy or even just on Bloom & JH.

 

We got to where we are today through a long process that can not easily be reversed and "righted." Again, I'm not complaining about where we are, because I thought the 2016-2018 window of winning was worth this sacrifice. I don't even want to blame DD. I like what he did, but that doesn't mean I just blame the consequences on the guy who took over an incredibly difficult circumstance.

 

I find it very hard to fathom how anyone could really have expected continued winning and better playoff results under the conditions we were in post 2019:

1) Massive tightening of budget in 2020 that necessitated trading Betts with Half-Price attached and not replacing Porcello and the slots vacated the winter earlier by Kimbrel and Kelly.

2) Having a farm that produce nothing but Houck from mid 2017 to the end of 2022 (5 years). You speak of the great homegrown talent we squanders from 2018, but seem to gloss over the fact that we added none, since them.

3) Making rebuilding the farm a top priority to the point where nearly every trade we made involved adding prospects, and the only trade since the 2018 deadline that involved trading away a top prospect was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber.

 

Seriously, Bloom did not talk JH into those 3 major factors. They were conditions of his employment and hiring. Blaming Bloom of these points seems misguided.

 

Fine, I'm with you on blaming him for not resetting, this summer, for the Renfroe trade and a few mid level signings like Richards, Perez I, Perez II and Paxton. I'm fine with the b elief he may have bungled the Bogey situation, but I'm still not sure he was worth signing at what BorA$$ insisted on, since we are not really sure what that ever was, but I'm ready to blame him for his role, if in 8 yrs we see the results. (I also would blame DD for not extending him longer or for not finding away to avoid the opt-out.) I put more blame on JH for losing Betts than on DD or Bloom.

 

Let's see what happens to Devers, and I'm sure JH, Bloom and maybe even DD will see blame hurled at them, if he bolts or is traded.

 

I guess I just take issue with your statement: "Look at where Bloom has got the Red Sox today,." IMO, it was a team effort that goes back a long ways but also includes mistakes made by Bloom and JH.

[Old Red]

I didn't say they won't, I said they can't, which means they shouldn't. If they go into the season that way, it would be a big mistake.

 

I agree 100%, but Bogey was a big mistake, and my contention is that Raffy will at least start the season with the Red Sox without a new contract, because JH does not want to lose Bogey, and Raffy at the same time, so the anger from the fans will get spread out. Just my theory.

[Old Red]

Those guys should have been extended under DD. I'm not sure why you never mention that. Bogey would likely have signed a $25M x 6, 7 or 8 year deal without an opt-out had DD offered it.

 

As for the Sox not being better off. I expected them not to be once 2019 showed the writing on the wall that many of us saw coming. So it's not about me trying to say we are better off. It's about this need to assign blame on just one guy or even just on Bloom & JH.

 

We got to where we are today through a long process that can not easily be reversed and "righted." Again, I'm not complaining about where we are, because I thought the 2016-2018 window of winning was worth this sacrifice. I don't even want to blame DD. I like what he did, but that doesn't mean I just blame the consequences on the guy who took over an incredibly difficult circumstance.

 

I find it very hard to fathom how anyone could really have expected continued winning and better playoff results under the conditions we were in post 2019:

1) Massive tightening of budget in 2020 that necessitated trading Betts with Half-Price attached and not replacing Porcello and the slots vacated the winter earlier by Kimbrel and Kelly.

2) Having a farm that produce nothing but Houck from mid 2017 to the end of 2022 (5 years). You speak of the great homegrown talent we squanders from 2018, but seem to gloss over the fact that we added none, since them.

3) Making rebuilding the farm a top priority to the point where nearly every trade we made involved adding prospects, and the only trade since the 2018 deadline that involved trading away a top prospect was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber.

 

Seriously, Bloom did not talk JH into those 3 major factors. They were conditions of his employment and hiring. Blaming Bloom of these points seems misguided.

 

Fine, I'm with you on blaming him for not resetting, this summer, for the Renfroe trade and a few mid level signings like Richards, Perez I, Perez II and Paxton. I'm fine with the b elief he may have bungled the Bogey situation, but I'm still not sure he was worth signing at what BorA$$ insisted on, since we are not really sure what that ever was, but I'm ready to blame him for his role, if in 8 yrs we see the results. (I also would blame DD for not extending him longer or for not finding away to avoid the opt-out.) I put more blame on JH for losing Betts than on DD or Bloom.

 

Let's see what happens to Devers, and I'm sure JH, Bloom and maybe even DD will see blame hurled at them, if he bolts or is traded.

 

I guess I just take issue with your statement: "Look at where Bloom has got the Red Sox today,." IMO, it was a team effort that goes back a long ways but also includes mistakes made by Bloom and JH.

You can keep polishing the turd (Bloom) all you want, and Blame others all you want too, but the turd is still a turd, and Bloom in 3 years turned this club into what it is today, which is a losing last place team, so take issue all you want, but it doesn’t change anything.

[moonslav59]

I don't think they are better off yet.

 

Casas, Bleis and Mayer could be in the conversation with Betts, Devers and Xander someday. Rafaela? He's probably closer to that JBJ tier. Romero and Anthony could be on that Beni tier.

 

How long did it take us to get from Betts, Bogey & Devers to come close to a list of 3 promising homegrown players again, like Bello, Casas, Mayer and maybe Bleis as the 4th?

 

I'm thinking 5 years. It's no coincidence or malfeasance on the part of the current GM for this fact.

 

What I find surprising is that Bello and Casas are DD guys, and so the 5 year drought can be blamed mostly on him, coming out of the drought is partially his success, too.

 

One other major reason the farm turn-around has been slow in the making, has been Bloom's propensity for drafting HS players not college ones.

 

2020

1. Yorke

2. Jordan

 

2021

1. Mayer

 

2022

1. Romero

2. Coffey

3. Anthony (got a higher signing bonus than Romero & Coffey)

 

The only college guy he drafted 1-2 was Jud Fabian.

[moonslav59]

You can keep polishing the turd (Bloom) all you want, and Blame others all you want too, but the turd is still a turd, and Bloom in 3 years turned this club into what it is today, which is a losing last place team, so take issue all you want, but it doesn’t change anything.

 

You can squish the turd in your fingers all you want, too, but it doesn't change the facts or the reality that this downturn was long in the making.

[Old Red]

I don't think they are better off yet.

 

Casas, Bleis and Mayer could be in the conversation with Betts, Devers and Xander someday. Rafaela? He's probably closer to that JBJ tier. Romero and Anthony could be on that Beni tier.

 

Like I keep saying that all these Casas, Bello, Mayer, and anyone else you want to throw in there are nothing, but promising prospects with plenty of hype at this point, and counting on all to live up to expectations is above, and beyond probability, and if they don’t what then? Lucky if one does let alone more. Betts, Bogey, and Raffy were proven.

[Old Red]

You can squish the turd in your fingers all you want, too, but it doesn't change the facts or the reality that this downturn was long in the making.

 

Deny, deny, accuse. Your standard operation procedure.

[moonslav59]

I agree 100%, but Bogey was a big mistake, and my contention is that Raffy will at least start the season with the Red Sox without a new contract, because JH does not want to lose Bogey, and Raffy at the same time, so the anger from the fans will get spread out. Just my theory.

 

What was the specific detailed mistake made with Bogey?

 

Okay, the lowball offer is one we can agree on, but what was the lowest demand BorA$$ ever made that Bloom should have accepted?

 

Then, even if it seems like it would have been a bargain or a "fair market" contract at any point on the timeline, how can we be sure it was a mistake not to take it, until we see what Bogey does the next 6 or 8-11 years.

 

Or, was the mistake to not realize the demand was too high, and we should have traded him, despite the no trade clause you kept bringing up at this last deadline?

 

Do we know the specific offer not taken that was the big mistake?

 

I'm not trying to be flippant, here. I genuinely want to know, myself, and am fully prepared to give a negative opinion on the choice Bloom made to turn it down, once I know what it was.

 

I'm not trying to compare Bogey to ERod, but many ehre wanted us to bring him back. He was a proven winner in market not easy to thrive in. Although he was not technically "homegrown," we was a prospect when we acquired him, and we let him walk. Why is his name not mentioned anymore? He signed for what seemed like a "fair market" amount. JH could have afforded that? Did Bloom talk JH out of it? If yes, was that another Bloom mistake?

 

We know damn well why it's not brought up; it doesn't fit into the neat narrative of the bumbling, stumbling Bloom in "over his head."

 

[moonslav59]

Deny, deny, accuse. [The] standard operation procedure.

 

I'm glad you finally admitted you deny the history that got us to this point.

 

Thanks.

[mvp 78]

I agree 100%, but Bogey was a big mistake, and my contention is that Raffy will at least start the season with the Red Sox without a new contract, because JH does not want to lose Bogey, and Raffy at the same time, so the anger from the fans will get spread out. Just my theory.

 

So he'll trade Raffy in season which will only make fans more upset because that's when it's the only game in town and their are more eyes on the product?

[mvp 78]

How long did it take us to get from Betts, Bogey & Devers to come close to a list of 3 promising homegrown players again, like Bello, Casas, Mayer and maybe Bleis as the 4th?

 

I'm thinking 5 years. It's no coincidence or malfeasance on the part of the current GM for this fact.

 

What I find surprising is that Bello and Casas are DD guys, and so the 5 year drought can be blamed mostly on him, coming out of the drought is partially his success, too.

 

One other major reason the farm turn-around has been slow in the making, has been Bloom's propensity for drafting HS players not college ones.

 

2020

1. Yorke

2. Jordan

 

2021

1. Mayer

 

2022

1. Romero

2. Coffey

3. Anthony (got a higher signing bonus than Romero & Coffey)

 

The only college guy he drafted 1-2 was Jud Fabian.

 

The Sox drafts have mostly sucked since Theo left in 2011. Bloom seems to have righted that ship at least.

[Bellhorn04]

What was the specific detailed mistake made with Bogey?

 

Okay, the lowball offer is one we can agree on, but what was the lowest demand BorA$$ ever made that Bloom should have accepted?

 

Then, even if it seems like it would have been a bargain or a "fair market" contract at any point on the timeline, how can we be sure it was a mistake not to take it, until we see what Bogey does the next 6 or 8-11 years.

 

Or, was the mistake to not realize the demand was too high, and we should have traded him, despite the no trade clause you kept bringing up at this last deadline?

 

Do we know the specific offer not taken that was the big mistake?

 

I'm not trying to be flippant, here. I genuinely want to know, myself, and am fully prepared to give a negative opinion on the choice Bloom made to turn it down, once I know what it was.

 

What we know is that the Red Sox only offer prior to free agency was the added year and $30 million.

 

If they had made a serious offer prior to free agency we might have something more to talk about, but they didn't.

[mvp 78]

Like I keep saying that all these Casas, Bello, Mayer, and anyone else you want to throw in there are nothing, but promising prospects with plenty of hype at this point, and counting on all to live up to expectations is above, and beyond probability, and if they don’t what then? Lucky if one does let alone more. Betts, Bogey, and Raffy were proven.

 

And at one point, Mookie, Raffy and Xander were just prospects with hype. It's up to the Sox scouting and development team to find the right guys and make sure the system is on the right track.

 

In a vacuum, Xander leaving isn't a big deal. Mookie should have been extended PRIOR to the Sale and Eovaldi contracts. Raffy should have already been extended by now. At this point, the only thing the Sox can do it re-sign Devers and show fans that they will go large and long for the right guy. Will fans still have a grudge about how they handled Mookie? Yes and they have a right to feel that way. I sure feel a lot of resentment about it.

[moonslav59]

What we know is that the Red Sox only offer prior to free agency was the added year and $30 million.

 

If they had made a serious offer prior to free agency we might have something more to talk about, but they didn't.

 

Yes, I mentioned the lowball offer.

 

What I feel needs to be known before we can really pass judgement is what the lowest demand from BorA$$ was at given points in the timeline.

 

How can we blame Bloom for not accepting an offer we don't know about?

 

If Bloom turned down $160/6 right around the time of the Story signing, I would agree that looks like a serious mistake, especially in hindsight, but even that turn down could end up being a good, decent or okay decision, depending on what Bogey does over the next 6 years. That's my point.

 

If Bloom turned down $225M/8 or $250M/9, was that a clear mistake? One could argue, he should have traded him, if that was the demand. I'd be fine saying not trading him over those offers as a mistake, too, but many here were against trading even JD at the deadline, so what would trading Bogey have unleashed?

 

If the demand was $200M/8, it gets kinda hairy, for me. That seems like a "fair market price" for 8 years of a SS, but I'm not sure it is for a 1 yr SS and 7 yr 3B/LF/2Bman. I'd understand if that was turned down, and would be lukewarm on saying it was a mistake not to accept.

 

The trading him issue seems the most problematic of deciding if a mistake was made, or not.

 

The no-trade aspect made that almost impossible to assign blame.

[moonslav59]

The Sox drafts have mostly sucked since Theo left in 2011. Bloom seems to have righted that ship at least.

 

The IFAs also dipped a bit for a while, in part due to the penalty the Sox got under Ben.

 

The drop in significant farm additions since Devers back in 2013 is rather astounding.

 

It's a major reason we are where we are, now.

 

[Old Red]

So he'll trade Raffy in season which will only make fans more upset because that's when it's the only game in town and their are more eyes on the product?

 

I’m not even sure Raffy gets traded at all., but it’s just a theory.

[Old Red]

What we know is that the Red Sox only offer prior to free agency was the added year and $30 million.

 

If they had made a serious offer prior to free agency we might have something more to talk about, but they didn't.

Exactly. If the Red Sox had made a serious offer then we would have known if Bogey really wanted to stay, or not, but once he hit FA it was all over, and the price went up out of sight.

[moonslav59]

And at one point, Mookie, Raffy and Xander were just prospects with hype. It's up to the Sox scouting and development team to find the right guys and make sure the system is on the right track.

 

In a vacuum, Xander leaving isn't a big deal. Mookie should have been extended PRIOR to the Sale and Eovaldi contracts. Raffy should have already been extended by now. At this point, the only thing the Sox can do it re-sign Devers and show fans that they will go large and long for the right guy. Will fans still have a grudge about how they handled Mookie? Yes and they have a right to feel that way. I sure feel a lot of resentment about it.

 

Well said. Nobody is happy we lost Betts and may lose Devers. Many are upset over losing Bogey. Some over Beni and Vaz.

 

Choosing to extend Sale and Nate may have forced these losses or played a major role in their losses.

 

I hope we learn our lesson about locking up very promising young players before they become too expensive for JH to pay. Make a few mistakes- fine. They won't be $145M/5 mistakes like Sale.

 

Just do it!