A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Bogaerts:

 

RISP .909

Men on .889

Bases empty .777

 

JDM:

 

RISP .659

Men on .682

Bases empty .890

 

So basically, JD was indeed lousy in RBI situations, whereas Bogey's low RBI number was just a random fluke.

 

One problem with the Sox is we don't score when someone gets a hit w RISP as much as other teams. The short LF is part of the reason, but not all of it.

 

65 of Bogey's 73 RBI came with RISP. Not hitting as many HRs- and XBHs with men on base as he used to helped keep his RBI numbers down but out of the 62 times he got on base with RISP, 43 were BBs and 1Bs.

 

Men on base: 91 out of 120. (BBs or 1Bs)

2019:

94 out of 129 - hardly a difference. (117 RBIs)

 

It was a fluke, but the fact is, we can match his RBI production with someone like Andrus, but not his BA and OBP or SLG.

[moonslav59]

2022 Red Sox w RISP

537 RBI in 1688 PAs (.261 BA and 139 XBHs)

2021:

568 in 1633 (.268 & 143) Actually less PAs in 2021!

2018

622 in 1753 (.289 and 168)

 

2022 Red Sox w Men on Base

626 RBI in 2834 PAs (.266 BA and 238 XBHs)

2021

654 in 2730 (.273 and 245)

2018

711 in 2830 (.282 and 277)

[notin]

One problem with the Sox is we don't score when someone gets a hit w RISP as much as other teams. The short LF is part of the reason, but not all of it.

 

65 of Bogey's 73 RBI came with RISP. Not hitting as many HRs- and XBHs with men on base as he used to helped keep his RBI numbers down but out of the 62 times he got on base with RISP, 43 were BBs and 1Bs.

 

Men on base: 91 out of 120. (BBs or 1Bs)

2019:

94 out of 129 - hardly a difference. (117 RBIs)

 

It was a fluke, but the fact is, we can match his RBI production with someone like Andrus, but not his BA and OBP or SLG.

 

First of all, 15 of Bogaerts’ 73 RBIs were himself; he only drove in 58 teammates…

[moonslav59]

First of all, 15 of Bogaerts’ 73 RBIs were himself; he only drove in 58 teammates…

 

Yes, but even that 15 was less than most other years, and less HRs and XBHs means less teammates driven in with one swat of the bat.

 

Bogey XBHs

71 in 580 PAs '18 (.122 per PA)

85 in 698 '19 (.122)

19 in 225 '20 (.084)

58 in 603 '21 (.096)

53 in 632 '22 (.084)

 

That's about a 27% drop off from 2018-2019 and 2020-2022.

 

.122 ('18-'19) > .089 ('20-'22)

 

[Bellhorn04]

Bogey's OPS+ was 131. That's the most reliable number. The rest is mostly minutiae.

 

Remember that power numbers were down all over baseball this year.

[dgalehouse]

Has the attempt to defend the strange moves of Chaim Bloom now reached the point of trying to discredit Xander Bogaerts ?

[Old Red]

Has the attempt to defend the strange moves of Chaim Bloom now reached the point of trying to discredit Xander Bogaerts ?

 

I think we both know the answer to that question? The Red Sox would be a lot better off to have kept Bogey, and got rid of Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Bogey's OPS+ was 131. That's the most reliable number. The rest is mostly minutiae.

 

Remember that power numbers were down all over baseball this year.

 

Which is also reflected in the "+" part of OPS+.

[moonslav59]

Has the attempt to defend the strange moves of Chaim Bloom now reached the point of trying to discredit Xander Bogaerts ?

 

If you think Bloom is the reason Bogey is gone, fine. (Same with Betts & Half-Price.)

 

Giving reasons why we think the Sox top brass did not think Bogey was worth whatever the lowest price BorA$$ would have taken at any point in negotiations is not an attempt to discredit Bogey.

 

We all wish he was back.

[Old Red]

If you think Bloom is the reason Bogey is gone, fine. (Same with Betts & Half-Price.)

 

Giving reasons why we think the Sox top brass did not think Bogey was worth whatever the lowest price BorA$$ would have taken at any point in negotiations is not an attempt to discredit Bogey.

 

We all wish he was back.

 

Still going with the theory that top brass did not think Bogey was worth the lowest price Boris would take at any point when the other theory, which I believe was more plausible is that Bloom misread the room so bad on what Bogey was really worth. Protect Bloom at all cost.

[moonslav59]

Still going with the theory that top brass did not think Bogey was worth the lowest price Boris would take at any point when the other theory, which I believe was more plausible is that Bloom misread the room so bad on what Bogey was really worth. Protect Bloom at all cost.

 

If they thought he was worth what BorA$$ would take, he'd have been signed. That's not some wild theory.

 

As to who decided what he was worth or how much they would ever pay, I'm not sure we'll ever know, for sure.

 

You can believe it was on Bloom. I believe they have a set way of assigning value that predated Bloom and might have been slightly or moderately affected by Bloom adjustments to that formula. Maybe more than I think it was. If BorA$$ wanted $250M/9 while Bloom set his value at $180M/7, I'm still not sure a mistake was made. You obviously think it was a slam dunk mistake, and Bloom led the top brass into the darkness. Nice theory. Attack Bloom at all cost.

 

What Bloom might have "misread" is what other teams would pay, but it still doesn't mean he'd have offered more than what the team thought he was worth. If he thought Bogey was worth $200M/8 and would have given him that, but he got $280, I'm not so sure that's misreading anything. Someone else valued him more and offered him something no other GM offered. How is that a clear mistake by Bloom?

 

Even if he thought he was worth only $160M/6, we won't know if that's a mistake until 6 years from now. "Read the room wrong?"

 

You really think he went to JH and Co, and said we think Bogey is worth ____ and might be offered ___ by other teams, and everyone said, " We trust everything you came up with on your own."

Edited December 26, 2022 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

If they thought he was worth what BorA$$ would take, he'd have been signed. That's not some wild theory.

 

As to who decided what he was worth or how much they would ever pay, I'm not sure we'll ever know, for sure.

 

You can believe it was on Bloom. I believe they have a set way of assigning value that predated Bloom and might have been slightly or moderately affected by Bloom adjustments to that formula. Maybe more than I think it was. If BorA$$ wanted $250M/9 while Bloom set his value at $180M/7, I'm still not sure a mistake was made. You obviously think it was a slam dunk mistake, and Bloom led the top brass into the darkness. Nice theory. Attack Bloom at all cost.

 

No one knows whose theory is right, but I’ll stick with mine. If the Red Sox would have offered at least 6/150 last offseason I’d had no problem with it, but the asinine offer they came out with is a cluster all the way around. The

[moonslav59]

No one knows whose theory is right, but I’ll stick with mine. If the Red Sox would have offered at least 6/150 last offseason I’d had no problem with it, but the asinine offer they came out with is a cluster all the way around. The

 

I agree, the $30M/1 year added to the team friendly deal he signed 3 years ago was a joke. What I'd like to know is what was BorA$$'s offers along the way. If they were higher than I felt we should pay, all along the way, I'd find it hard to blame anyone for not paying it.

 

I know I'd never have paid $250M, let alone $280M. If it turns out we offered $160M/6 last winter and $180M/7 or even $200M/8, later, and Bogey said no, I have no issues with the offers.

 

Should he and others been locked up before or even long ago, under DD? Of course. I'm fine with blaming Bloom and maybe even DD for not doing that, but we are not sure they'd have ever said yes.

 

I've agreed with your position on trading them, if we knew we could not sign them, but I'm not sure they ever felt like Betts would turn down $300M/10 or Bogey $___/__.

[Bellhorn04]

Which is also reflected in the "+" part of OPS+.

 

Yes, that's what I'm saying.

[notin]

Still going with the theory that top brass did not think Bogey was worth the lowest price Boris would take at any point when the other theory, which I believe was more plausible is that Bloom misread the room so bad on what Bogey was really worth. Protect Bloom at all cost.

 

You’re operating on the assumption that they ever wanted to bring Bogaerts back…

[moonslav59]

You’re operating on the assumption that they ever wanted to bring Bogaerts back…

 

Or, that maybe they wanted him back but just never at...

 

1. The prevailing market rate at any given point on the timeline.

 

2. The lowest offer BorA$$ would accept.

 

Note: these two numbers may never have converged.

[notin]

Or, that maybe they wanted him back but just never at...

 

1. The prevailing market rate at any given point on the timeline.

 

2. The lowest offer BorA$$ would accept.

 

Note: these two numbers may never have converged.

 

Not sure they wanted him period. Or at least wanted him to move off shortstop…

[moonslav59]

Not sure they wanted him period. Or at least wanted him to move off shortstop…

 

I'm not sure either, but to me, it was probably more about price. Maybe moving off SS was part of the reason they set his value lower than BorA$$ did, but I do think they wanted him back. It's all conjecture, no matter which side you are on.

 

I do think it's pretty obvious we never wanted him at the price BorA$$ demanded- something Ole Red thinks is some wild conspiracy theory that only I hold. (Cue: "Where did I ever say that?")

[Key2Delock]

Fenway Sports Group, the Red Sox owners, might’ve found their next international superstar. Like Kenley Jansen, he has played for the Dutch national team in international competitions. He’s age 23 and he’s 6-4, so he might be the power player FSG has been looking for.

 

Unfortunately, there’s no evidence that Cody Gakpo ever has played baseball and he wouldn’t be available until after Liverpool FC’s season ends at the end of May. https://www.espn.com/soccer/soccer-transfers/story/4838646/liverpool-beat-man-united-to-agreement-for-cody-gakpo-with-psv

[moonslav59]

Who gets more IP in 2023?

 

Whitlock or Bello?

 

Pivetta or Sale + Paxton?

 

Jansen or Martin?

 

Schreiber or Barnes?

 

Mata or Brasier?

 

Kelly or German?

[moonslav59]

Who finishes 2nd to Devers in OPS+?

 

Yoshida?

 

Turner?

 

Casas?

 

Verdugo or Kike?

[Hugh2]

Or, that maybe they wanted him back but just never at...

 

1. The prevailing market rate at any given point on the timeline.

 

2. The lowest offer BorA$$ would accept.

 

Note: these two numbers may never have converged.

 

I think it's obvious at this point that they wanted to bring Bogaerts back.

[Hugh2]

If Bloom actually pulls off some kind of roster heist it will have to primarily be via the trade market. This team still really needs SS/SP and a bench bat that can cover Cf. If the shortstop (who doesn't even exist yet) or Story goes down and you move Kike in to play SS/2ND you have no Cfer, unless Duran is your guy. I suppose Arroyo can be that guy now, but I'm not sure if I"m comfortable with him during a potentially long stint and that still leaves Duran or in CF or if Kike goes down, or Verdugo.

 

The pitching is more tricky because if healthy we technically have 6 starters going into camp (Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Houck) but you still like to see another name on that list because you know what they say about pitching. Adding a name to that list with a relatively good bill of health should actually make for a decent rotation. Perhaps it's a little bit easier to take an optimistic outlook on the starting pitching with some young arms in there and a better bullpen to help them along the way. But the position side of the ball is clearly not set.

 

The odd thing is the Sox traded away from the DEPTH of the very thing they need. A shortstop. Now I don't think anyone here seriously expected Hoy or Downs to be the starting shortstop on this team, but I'd figure those are the guys you call up who can field the position for a week or two. Depth like that matters and right now they don't even have that up the middle. Unless of course, the Sox are fine with Arroyo there periodically and figure both Kike/Story can back up as an emergency. That still leaves them short a Centerfielder. Ironically I think the Sox have a prospect in their system who even if he performs closer to his floor would be the perfect elite defense plus speed Cfer/SS type, but if giving Rafaella another year in the minors helps his bat develop then I say you forget about the kid until 2024, if he plays his way up this summer then great.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it's obvious at this point that they wanted to bring Bogaerts back.

 

I don't know, it seems quite possible they never wanted him back and the story about him being a priority was just more of our current front office's ******** stories. Not wanting him back makes more sense, especially considering their joke offer and the Story signing.

 

The net effect is they leave a lot of fans unhappy, confused or both.

 

Good times.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Bloom actually pulls off some kind of roster heist it will have to primarily be via the trade market. This team still really needs SS/SP and a bench bat that can cover Cf. If the shortstop (who doesn't even exist yet) or Story goes down and you move Kike in to play SS/2ND you have no Cfer, unless Duran is your guy. I suppose Arroyo can be that guy now, but I'm not sure if I"m comfortable with him during a potentially long stint and that still leaves Duran or in CF or if Kike goes down, or Verdugo.

 

The pitching is more tricky because if healthy we technically have 6 starters going into camp (Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Houck) but you still like to see another name on that list because you know what they say about pitching. Adding a name to that list with a relatively good bill of health should actually make for a decent rotation. Perhaps it's a little bit easier to take an optimistic outlook on the starting pitching with some young arms in there and a better bullpen to help them along the way. But the position side of the ball is clearly not set.

 

The odd thing is the Sox traded away from the DEPTH of the very thing they need. A shortstop. Now I don't think anyone here seriously expected Hoy or Downs to be the starting shortstop on this team, but I'd figure those are the guys you call up who can field the position for a week or two. Depth like that matters and right now they don't even have that up the middle. Unless of course, the Sox are fine with Arroyo there periodically and figure both Kike/Story can back up as an emergency. That still leaves them short a Centerfielder. Ironically I think the Sox have a prospect in their system who even if he performs closer to his floor would be the perfect elite defense plus speed Cfer/SS type, but if giving Rafaella another year in the minors helps his bat develop then I say you forget about the kid until 2024, if he plays his way up this summer then great.

 

Who is even the starting shortstop for their Triple A team? You know, the guy who may have to be promoted to fill in when our MLB shortstop we don't even have goes onto the IL?

 

If it's Rafaela (whose name, at least, seems inevitable to evolve into the next Raffy), ok -- then play him there all year. But what's the point, you may ask, if Mayer is moving up soon? Then we'd need Ceddanne to man CF.

 

I've seen Rafaela play short and center in person, and he's pretty good at both. Versatility may be overrated by Bloom, though... since we all remember Marwin with the bat or how bad Franchy was anywhere on the field.

[Old Red]

I don't know, it seems quite possible they never wanted him back and the story about him being a priority was just more of our current front office's ******** stories. Not wanting him back makes more sense, especially considering their joke offer and the Story signing.

 

The net effect is they leave a lot of fans unhappy, confused or both.

 

Good times.

 

I think JH, Bloom, and Kennedy were just trolling Red Sox fans about really wanting Bogey back. It worked on some. Correa is now having contract issues with the Mets, and if it falls through maybe Bloom is ready to pounce, and scoop him up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think JH, Bloom, and Kennedy were just trolling Red Sox fans about really wanting Bogey back. It worked on some. Correa is now having contract issues with the Mets, and if it falls through maybe Bloom is ready to pounce, and scoop him up.

 

Not a chance; the medicals are a perfect excuse not to pay Correa.

 

Bloom rejected medical reports on Brudstar Graterol, who in the past three years in LA has pitched in over 100 games -- more than twice the MLB games played by Downs and Wong combined.

[Bellhorn04]

Not a chance; the medicals are a perfect excuse not to pay Correa.

 

Bloom rejected medical reports on Brudstar Graterol, who in the past three years in LA has pitched in over 100 games -- more than twice the MLB games played by Downs and Wong combined.

 

Correa? We'll be lucky if they make a serious offer to Andrus.

[moonslav59]

I think it's obvious at this point that they wanted to bring Bogaerts back.

 

That very well might be the case, and I've said all along, they might not have been lying when they said that. None of this means the two pints I just mentioned are not true, either.

 

1. They never offered the market rate at any point.

 

and/or

 

2. The obvious one: they never offered a number BorA$$ would accept, at any point.

 

Neither of these mean they did not want him or want him badly, or even think they might still get him at slightly below the market rate had some clown GM not b usted the bank over him.

[moonslav59]

If Bloom actually pulls off some kind of roster heist it will have to primarily be via the trade market. This team still really needs SS/SP and a bench bat that can cover Cf. If the shortstop (who doesn't even exist yet) or Story goes down and you move Kike in to play SS/2ND you have no Cfer, unless Duran is your guy. I suppose Arroyo can be that guy now, but I'm not sure if I"m comfortable with him during a potentially long stint and that still leaves Duran or in CF or if Kike goes down, or Verdugo.

 

The pitching is more tricky because if healthy we technically have 6 starters going into camp (Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Houck) but you still like to see another name on that list because you know what they say about pitching. Adding a name to that list with a relatively good bill of health should actually make for a decent rotation. Perhaps it's a little bit easier to take an optimistic outlook on the starting pitching with some young arms in there and a better bullpen to help them along the way. But the position side of the ball is clearly not set.

 

The odd thing is the Sox traded away from the DEPTH of the very thing they need. A shortstop. Now I don't think anyone here seriously expected Hoy or Downs to be the starting shortstop on this team, but I'd figure those are the guys you call up who can field the position for a week or two. Depth like that matters and right now they don't even have that up the middle. Unless of course, the Sox are fine with Arroyo there periodically and figure both Kike/Story can back up as an emergency. That still leaves them short a Centerfielder. Ironically I think the Sox have a prospect in their system who even if he performs closer to his floor would be the perfect elite defense plus speed Cfer/SS type, but if giving Rafaella another year in the minors helps his bat develop then I say you forget about the kid until 2024, if he plays his way up this summer then great.

 

Very well said. I will add that is should not be hard or costly to find someone as good or better than Park & Downs.

 

I agree, we need some OF depth and not at LF. A defensive whiz in CF/RF without much of a bat may not be too costly, either.

 

The solid 1/2 SP is the kicker. Kluber might be a 3/4, and Nate about the same.

 

Andrus probably wants 3 years and can get it. I'd sign him to 3, if there is not a no trade clause involved.

 

We do not have to trade a top prospect for M Rojas (SS) or M Taylor (CF) and then sign 2 from Kluber, Nate and Fulmer, which could just be enough to force a Brasier DFA.