A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Exactly. If the Red Sox had made a serious offer then we would have known if Bogey really wanted to stay, or not, but once he hit FA it was all over, and the price went up out of sight.

 

Doesn't it also have to do with what the BorA$$ lowest demand was?

 

Maybe, we made a serious offer- maybe not. (Plus, can we all agree on even a framework of what "serious offer" means?)

 

Maybe BorA$$ made a demand that was reasonable- maybe not. Knowing him, I'm guessing NOT.

[Old Red]

And at one point, Mookie, Raffy and Xander were just prospects with hype. It's up to the Sox scouting and development team to find the right guys and make sure the system is on the right track.

 

In a vacuum, Xander leaving isn't a big deal. Mookie should have been extended PRIOR to the Sale and Eovaldi contracts. Raffy should have already been extended by now. At this point, the only thing the Sox can do it re-sign Devers and show fans that they will go large and long for the right guy. Will fans still have a grudge about how they handled Mookie? Yes and they have a right to feel that way. I sure feel a lot of resentment about it.

I get that Bogey, Raffy, and Mookie were all prospects once with hype, but because they turned out the way they did doesn’t mean the others will. My point is that I believe the Red Sox would be better off with the three above, and then you could build around them with the Casas, Bello, Mayer, and others if they work out, and then you got something. What have you got to build around now Story, and the $100M man?

[mvp 78]

I get that Bogey, Raffy, and Mookie were all prospects once with hype, but because they turned out the way they did doesn’t mean the others will. My point is that I believe the Red Sox would be better off with the three above, and then you could build around them with the Casas, Bello, Mayer, and others if they work out, and then you got something. What have you got to build around now Story, and the $100M man?

 

The Red Sox are actively worse off than they should be. It's not a point I'm going to debate. They made some serious mistakes starting with the Mookie debacle.

[Old Red]

I'm glad you finally admitted you deny the history that got us to this point.

 

Thanks.

 

Most Red Sox fans know the history that DD had not only a winning record in his 4 years in Boston, but a WS win as well. They also know the Bloom history in his three years, which are two losing last place finishes.

[Bellhorn04]

Doesn't it also have to do with what the BorA$$ lowest demand was?

 

Maybe, we made a serious offer- maybe not. (Plus, can we all agree on even a framework of what "serious offer" means?)

 

Maybe BorA$$ made a demand that was reasonable- maybe not. Knowing him, I'm guessing NOT.

 

There's no report of any demand by Boras. You're kind of erecting a straw man here.

 

It seems to have been identical to the Lester situation, where the offer was such a non-starter that it was ignored.

 

Bogaerts had all the leverage, with his free agency coming soon, so it was incumbent on the Sox to make a good offer - if they were serious about keeping him.

[Old Red]

There's no report of any demand by Boras. You're kind of erecting a straw man here.

 

It seems to have been identical to the Lester situation, where the offer was such a non-starter that it was ignored.

 

Bogaerts had all the leverage, with his free agency coming soon, so it was incumbent on the Sox to make a good offer - if they were serious about keeping him.

 

He keeps making the same argument, and like you said there has never been any reports of Boris demanding anything, but yet I’ve heard the Boris lowest demand a 100 times over.

[moonslav59]

He keeps making the same argument, and like you said there has never been any reports of Boris demanding anything, but yet I’ve heard the Boris lowest demand a 100 times over.

 

What was it and provide a link.

[Old Red]

What was it and provide a link.

 

You keep talking about Boris lowest demand, so what was it?

[notin]

There's no report of any demand by Boras. You're kind of erecting a straw man here.

 

It seems to have been identical to the Lester situation, where the offer was such a non-starter that it was ignored.

 

Bogaerts had all the leverage, with his free agency coming soon, so it was incumbent on the Sox to make a good offer - if they were serious about keeping him.

 

To be fair, according to an article I read on Boras, all initial offers are ignored. That used to be his primary strategy - see how a team will go prior to negotiating. Not sure if he still employs it, but it wouldn’t surprise me…

[moonslav59]

There's no report of any demand by Boras. You're kind of erecting a straw man here.

 

It seems to have been identical to the Lester situation, where the offer was such a non-starter that it was ignored.

 

Bogaerts had all the leverage, with his free agency coming soon, so it was incumbent on the Sox to make a good offer - if they were serious about keeping him.

 

It is important to know what BorA$$'s demand was. If there never was one, it's hard to blame Bloom for never meeting a fictional number.

 

Let's assume Bloom did or should have countered with $160M/6. Unless we know what BorA$$'s counter offer would have been, I find it hard to blame Bloom for not taking it, or not offering "what it would have taken," if we don't have that number.

 

I get it. We may never know what that meeting point may have been, because the talks never progressed beyond that first offer, but if find it hard to believe no framework was ever presented by BorA$S or that the Sox never asked him what they felt it would take. If that proves to be true, I'm all on board with calling that a mistake, in itself, but I will never give my opinion about "we should have signed him," until I know the numb er it would have taken. It seems senseless to claim we should have done anything without knowing what that anything was.

 

No doubt, serious mistakes might have been made and probably were, but maybe not on the amount we coulda, shoulda signed him for. No matter what that number was, we won't know until 6-18 years from now. We can give our opinions, like we did on ERod, and see later, if we were right or wrong.

[moonslav59]

You keep talking about Boris lowest demand, so what was it?

 

I'm not saying there ever was a given demand, which makes the criticism of Bloom not taking it even more absurd.

 

Fine, Blame Bloom for never making a serious counteroffer, although we are not sure that one was never given or discussed.

 

Fine, blame Bloom for not trading Bogey, despite all the times you pointed out his no trade status.

 

I'm all set to through plenty of blame at Bloom, if I know what he can be blamed for.

 

Without knowing the number it would have taken to extend Bogey, the blame game on that point, alone, should be on hold. Other points are fair game, and I've agreed the lowball $30M 1 year addition was a mistake.

[Old Red]

It is important to know what BorA$$'s demand was. If there never was one, it's hard to blame Bloom for never meeting a fictional number.

 

Let's assume Bloom did or should have countered with $160M/6. Unless we know what BorA$$'s counter offer would have been, I find it hard to blame Bloom for not taking it, or not offering "what it would have taken," if we don't have that number.

 

I get it. We may never know what that meeting point may have been, because the talks never progressed beyond that first offer, but if find it hard to believe no framework was ever presented by BorA$S or that the Sox never asked him what they felt it would take. If that proves to be true, I'm all on board with calling that a mistake, in itself, but I will never give my opinion about "we should have signed him," until I know the numb er it would have taken. It seems senseless to claim we should have done anything without knowing what that anything was.

 

No doubt, serious mistakes might have been made and probably were, but maybe not on the amount we coulda, shoulda signed him for. No matter what that number was, we won't know until 6-18 years from now. We can give our opinions, like we did on ERod, and see later, if we were right or wrong.

Bloom gets all the blame for that ridiculous lowball offer in the first place last offseason, and that didn’t warrant any kind of counter offer from Boris. We’ve gone over this 100 times already, and nothing new has come about, or changed.

[moonslav59]

To be fair, according to an article I read on Boras, all initial offers are ignored. That used to be his primary strategy - see how a team will go prior to negotiating. Not sure if he still employs it, but it wouldn’t surprise me…

 

So, it then comes down to what happened next.

 

Did the Sox make a second offer or say they were prepared to go higher, and still got nothing back from BorA$$?

 

Without knowing what happened and didn't happen, isn't it pointless to throw blame on anything beyond what is known- the initial lowball offer?z

 

What if it comes out the Sox told BorA$$ they were willing to offer Bogey something north of what Story got and got no reply? Is it the Sox fault for not making a third or 4th offer despite no demands or frameworks for a deal presented by BorA$$? I'm not saying no: I'm just wondering what the facts are, before I give my opinion on everything after the lowball, initial offer.

[mvp 78]

You keep talking about Boris lowest demand, so what was it?

 

I'd start with Boris "Pink." While it was their 10th release, it was more "melodic" (for them) and more "accessible" (for them). It rules. Doesn't demand much on your ears.

[moonslav59]

Bloom gets all the blame for that ridiculous lowball offer in the first place last offseason, and that didn’t warrant any kind of counter offer from Boris. We’ve gone over this 100 times already, and nothing new has come about, or changed.

 

I've agreed it was a mistake to make that initial offer. You seem to have a hard time accepting when I agree with you.

 

To you, nothing else matters about what came about afterwards. If the answer is nothing happened, then I'd agree that's another major strike against Bloom & Co. The problem is, we don't know.

 

I have to think something else was said after that first offer. I'd like to know what it was.

 

Unlike you, I'm not assuming that even a $160M/6 deal would have been a clear winning counteroffer, even if accepted by BorA$$ doubtful, IMO, until we see what Bogey does in the next 6 years.

 

I'm 100% with you on the point about trading him, if we knew we were not going to make a serious run at extending him. I'm not sure how easy it would be under his no-trade status, but we probably could have gotten him to accept a trade.

 

What, specifically, do you disagree with anything I just wrote?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying there ever was a given demand, which makes the criticism of Bloom not taking it even more absurd.

 

Fine, Blame Bloom for never making a serious counteroffer, although we are not sure that one was never given or discussed.

 

Fine, blame Bloom for not trading Bogey, despite all the times you pointed out his no trade status.

 

I'm all set to through plenty of blame at Bloom, if I know what he can be blamed for.

 

Without knowing the number it would have taken to extend Bogey, the blame game on that point, alone, should be on hold. Other points are fair game, and I've agreed the lowball $30M 1 year addition was a mistake.

 

What difference do you see between this and the Lester situation? They look identical to me.

[dgalehouse]

Scott Boras is better and more successful at his job than Chaim Bloom is at his. Xander Bogaerts is also better and more successful at his job than Chaim Bloom is at his.

[Old Red]

What difference do you see between this and the Lester situation? They look identical to me.

 

The old JH fool me once fool me twice routine.

[Bellhorn04]

The old JH fool me once fool me twice routine.

 

I don't get why moon thinks this is so different. And I'm pretty sure he never defended them about Lester.

[moonslav59]

What difference do you see between this and the Lester situation? They look identical to me.

 

I hated the Lester fiasco and am fully prepared to hate the Bogey, one, too, once I find out the specifics.

 

One difference: we know the specific last minute offer we made Lester.

 

I'm still of the opinion we never wanted Lester at market prices, and even that last offer was just for show, as they knew full well, he'd turn it down.

 

The same may end up being true for Bogey. One difference, again. We have the results on Lester- post fiasco. We can only speculate on Bogey's post signing results, and another difference is that, let's say we find out we made a final offer close to what SD made (like what happened with Lester and the Cubs), I'd look at that as a mistake for offering maybe $250M/10. I don't think he's worth that, when not playing SS for 8-9 years of the 10.

 

I thought Lester was worth what he got with the Cubs, and hindsight really makes that mistake sink in.

[Bellhorn04]

I hated the Lester fiasco and am fully prepared to hate the Bogey, one, too, once I find out the specifics.

 

One difference: we know the specific last minute offer we made Lester.

 

It was reported that our last offer to Bogaerts was 6/162.

 

And that Boras basically had to sign off on the Sox because there were so many teams with much higher bids, which is what pushed San Diego to the ridiculous amount that closed it.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[Old Red]

I don't get why moon thinks this is so different. And I'm pretty sure he never defended them about Lester.

The only difference is that JH did not meet Bogey out in the parking lot like he did Lester.

[moonslav59]

I don't get why moon thinks this is so different. And I'm pretty sure he never defended them about Lester.

 

See my last post.

 

1. We know we offered Lester something close to market value after the lowball first offer. We don't with Bogey.

2. I felt Lester was worth our final offer and what the Cubs got him for. I don't think Bogey was worth $225M/8, let alone $280, so that is a huge difference.

 

Let's look at the Erod example. I was a huge ERod supporter and often defender, once he got over his issues of getting past the 4th inning. I wanted us to extend or re-sign him. However, once I saw what he signed for with the Tigers, I felt Bloom made the right call.

 

A few here, wished we'd have kept him, but not many. Nobody talks about him, now. Nobody says we let another good one getaway, now. In hindsight, Bloom made the right choice, but only because it looks like ERod will never come close to earning what he is being paid.

 

How is the Bogey situation different? I heard no offers by the Sox for ERod.

 

I realize ERod is no Bogey, but the mistake will become known after Bogey plays a few more years.

 

yes, our opinions on the mistakes made with Lester turned out right, but had he sucked, there would be zero talk about him now, right?

 

Respectfully, is that different enough?

[Old Red]

It was reported that our last offer to Bogaerts was 6/162.

 

And that Boras basically had to sign off on the Sox because there were so many teams with much higher bids, which is what pushed San Diego to the ridiculous amount that closed it.

The 6/162, which was a little lower than my suggested 6/168 should have been made last offseason. Waiting till after FA they knew he wouldn’t take it.

[moonslav59]

It was reported that our last offer to Bogaerts was 6/162.

 

And that Boras basically had to sign off on the Sox because there were so many teams with much higher bids, which is what pushed San Diego to the ridiculous amount that closed it.

 

So, that offer was made after other teams started making offers?

 

If so, that seems low, but not like the Lester offer and much better than the initial lowball offer.

 

I felt $180M/7 was about as high as I'd go, so $162M/6 does not seem like a huge mistake, just because he ended up getting $280M/11. His value should be decided by what he does in the next few years, not what one crazy GM decided to shell out.

 

I'm fine with anyone thinking $126M/6 is also a lowball offer, but I don't see it as low enough to throw hissy fits over, if the report is true.

 

BTW, do you have the link on that offer? I'm curious why it has not been mentioned over and over.

[Bellhorn04]

See my last post.

 

1. We know we offered Lester something close to market value after the lowball first offer. We don't with Bogey.

2. I felt Lester was worth our final offer and what the Cubs got him for. I don't think Bogey was worth $225M/8, let alone $280, so that is a huge difference.

 

Let's look at the Erod example. I was a huge ERod supporter and often defender, once he got over his issues of getting past the 4th inning. I wanted us to extend or re-sign him. However, once I saw what he signed for with the Tigers, I felt Bloom made the right call.

 

A few here, wished we'd have kept him, but not many. Nobody talks about him, now. Nobody says we let another good one getaway, now. In hindsight, Bloom made the right choice, but only because it looks like ERod will never come close to earning what he is being paid.

 

How is the Bogey situation different? I heard no offers by the Sox for ERod.

 

I realize ERod is no Bogey, but the mistake will become known after Bogey plays a few more years.

 

yes, our opinions on the mistakes made with Lester turned out right, but had he sucked, there would be zero talk about him now, right?

 

Respectfully, is that different enough?

 

There was very little outcry when E-Rod signed with the Tigers, because he just wasn't that good. I see no comparison whatsoever.

[Bellhorn04]

So, that offer was made after other teams started making offers?

 

If so, that seems low, but not like the Lester offer and much better than the initial lowball offer.

 

I felt $180M/7 was about as high as I'd go, so $162M/6 does not seem like a huge mistake, just because he ended up getting $280M/11. His value should be decided by what he does in the next few years, not what one crazy GM decided to shell out.

 

I'm fine with anyone thinking $126M/6 is also a lowball offer, but I don't see it as low enough to throw hissy fits over, if the report is true.

 

BTW, do you have the link on that offer? I'm curious why it has not been mentioned over and over.

 

If you scroll down toward the end of this, you'll see that Abraham and Speier reported the Sox offer at 6 for around 160. The link takes to you the Globe, but that's paywalled.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/padres-xander-bogaerts-agree-to-11-year-deal.html

[Old Red]

So, that offer was made after other teams started making offers?

 

If so, that seems low, but not like the Lester offer and much better than the initial lowball offer.

 

I felt $180M/7 was about as high as I'd go, so $162M/6 does not seem like a huge mistake, just because he ended up getting $280M/11. His value should be decided by what he does in the next few years, not what one crazy GM decided to shell out.

 

I'm fine with anyone thinking $126M/6 is also a lowball offer, but I don't see it as low enough to throw hissy fits over, if the report is true.

 

BTW, do you have the link on that offer? I'm curious why it has not been mentioned over and over.

The BIG mistake was was the offer came 12 months to late.

[mvp 78]

There was very little outcry when E-Rod signed with the Tigers, because he just wasn't that good. I see no comparison whatsoever.

 

"Mild annoyance."

[notin]

The only difference is that JH did not meet Bogey out in the parking lot like he did Lester.

 

Another difference was they were NINE YEARS APART.

 

The whole “history of lowballing” thing “just like with Lester” would have a little more relevance if it had happened slightly more recently than three GMs ago. This whole team history thing just doesn’t sound all that serious when what you’re really saying is “DAMNIT!! They do this ONCE EVERY DECADE!!”