A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

The BIG mistake was was the offer came 12 months to late.

 

Agreed, but maybe 12 months earlier even $162M/6 was not something they felt was right.

 

I'm still not sure $162M/6 was low enough to say it was a clear mistake, but I agree, something should have been worked out earlier, including reworking the DD deal whan that was signed, and we should have traded him, if we felt we'd never come close to what he'd take. I'm not sure they ever felt that, but that can be called a "mistake," too.

 

Let's see how Bogey does.

[moonslav59]

There was very little outcry when E-Rod signed with the Tigers, because he just wasn't that good. I see no comparison whatsoever.

 

Had ERod done very well, last year, we might be hearing a different story.

 

BTW, fWAR 2017-2019

 

7.8 Erod

6.2 Porcello

6.2 Price

[Old Red]

Agreed, but maybe 12 months earlier even $162M/6 was not something they felt was right.

 

I'm still not sure $162M/6 was low enough to say it was a clear mistake, but I agree, something should have been worked out earlier, including reworking the DD deal whan that was signed, and we should have traded him, if we felt we'd never come close to what he'd take. I'm not sure they ever felt that, but that can be called a "mistake," too.

 

Let's see how Bogey does.

 

I know you had to get DD in here somehow. This is all on Bloom no matter how you try to spin it back to DD. $162M/6 would had been a good offer 12 months ago, but not now, which probably wasn’t even close to what more than 1 team offered. Bloom misread the room, and botched this up, and after 3 years this was the best he came up with. Pitiful,just plain pitiful.

[moonslav59]

I know you had to get DD in here somehow. This is all on Bloom no matter how you try to spin it back to DD. $162M/6 would had been a good offer 12 months ago, but not now, which probably wasn’t even close to what more than 1 team offered. Bloom misread the room, and botched this up, and after 3 years this was the best he came up with. Pitiful,just plain pitiful.

 

Where did I say I did not think $162M/6 would have been a bad offer a year ago?

 

Man, even when I agree with you you find ways to get testy.

 

You can ignore DD's role in everything all you want. You rarely even mention he played a small part in where we are today, despite providing a farm that produced just Houck in 5 years and a focus on extendinng Sale and Nate over getting Bogey to extend without an optout of Betts for a few million more.

 

You said $168M and Bloom said $162 and that's a major, pitiful, just pitiful blunder. Plus, we don't even know for sure that offer gets the job done.

 

You get irate when others speculate, but don't seem to realize when you do it.

[Old Red]

Where did I say I did not think $162M/6 would have been a bad offer a year ago?

 

Man, even when I agree with you you find ways to get testy.

 

You can ignore DD's role in everything all you want. You rarely even mention he played a small part in where we are today, despite providing a farm that produced just Houck in 5 years and a focus on extendinng Sale and Nate over getting Bogey to extend without an optout of Betts for a few million more.

 

You said $168M and Bloom said $162 and that's a major, pitiful, just pitiful blunder. Plus, we don't even know for sure that offer gets the job done.

 

You get irate when others speculate, but don't seem to realize when you do it.

 

I said $168M 12 months ago. I repeat 12 months ago. Bloom came out with a offer of a 1 yr extension 12 months ago. Bloom coming out now with $162M after Bogey had gotten to FA is what’s so pitiful. You can keep playing the same old broken record about DD, and Houck, and the farm like that is going to lessen, or take away the blame that Bloom is getting for misreading the room, and botching the Bogey negotiations. It won’t, and it doesn’t.

[moonslav59]

I said $168M 12 months ago. I repeat 12 months ago. Bloom came out with a offer of a 1 yr extension 12 months ago. Bloom coming out now with $162M after Bogey had gotten to FA is what’s so pitiful. You can keep playing the same old broken record about DD, and Houck, and the farm like that is going to lessen, or take away the blame that Bloom is getting for misreading the room, and botching the Bogey negotiations. It won’t, and it doesn’t.

 

Stop acting like I don't get your point. I know when your offer was suggested. I agree on everything, except that we know he botched it.

 

It can only be viewed as a POSSIBLE botch, if we know BorA$$ would have said yes. Then, we have to see if he earns even $162M, which he should do, but it's not a sure bet..

[Old Red]

Stop acting like I don't get your point. I know when your offer was suggested. I agree on everything, except that we know he botched it.

 

It can only be viewed as a POSSIBLE botch, if we know BorA$$ would have said yes. Then, we have to see if he earns even $162M, which he should do, but it's not a sure bet..

 

I’m more concerned if Story will earn what he has left on his contract, which is far from a sure bet in itself.

[moonslav59]

I’m more concerned if Story will earn what he has left on his contract, which is far from a sure bet in itself.

 

I’m concerned about that, too, along with Yoshida, Sale and others.

 

Wow, another thing we agree on.

[moonslav59]

If you scroll down toward the end of this, you'll see that Abraham and Speier reported the Sox offer at 6 for around 160. The link takes to you the Globe, but that's paywalled.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/padres-xander-bogaerts-agree-to-11-year-deal.html

 

Do you think or are pretty sure Bogey would have taken this reported offer had it been made in February or March?

[Nick]

Cleary Sox is no longer interested in giving out mega contracts.

Study the Kluber deal with incentives based on innings pitched.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out Sox doesn't want another Sale situation. Sox are protecting against injuries by limiting years and also performance measured by innings pitched or games started.

I suspect Eovaldi was not interested in performance based contract.I applaude Bloom for that.

[Bellhorn04]

Another difference was they were NINE YEARS APART.

 

The whole “history of lowballing” thing “just like with Lester” would have a little more relevance if it had happened slightly more recently than three GMs ago. This whole team history thing just doesn’t sound all that serious when what you’re really saying is “DAMNIT!! They do this ONCE EVERY DECADE!!”

 

First of all, it doesn't matter how many GM's ago, it was the same owners.

 

And if Devers is gone, that will make 4 homegrown stars gone in their prime in the space of a decade.

 

Not enough for ya to see a pattern?

[Bellhorn04]

Do you think or are pretty sure Bogey would have taken this reported offer had it been made in February or March?

 

Yes, I'm pretty sure.

[Bellhorn04]

Cleary Sox is no longer interested in giving out mega contracts.

Study the Kluber deal with incentives based on innings pitched.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out Sox doesn't want another Sale situation. Sox are protecting against injuries by limiting years and also performance measured by innings pitched or games started.

I suspect Eovaldi was not interested in performance based contract.I applaude Bloom for that.

 

Kluber is kind of a special case given his age and recent injury history and the apparent lack of competition from other teams.

 

I don't think it means they'll never give out another big contract.

 

I do think Bloom's "bridge to the kids" strategy is becoming clear. Hopefully it all falls into place!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kluber is kind of a special case given his age and recent injury history and the apparent lack of competition from other teams.

 

I don't think it means they'll never give out another big contract.

 

I do think Bloom's "bridge to the kids" strategy is becoming clear. Hopefully it all falls into place!

 

His office apparently thinks Yoshida, Story and Whitlock will be part of that core going forward.

 

But can't you just see Bloom salivating on how many other core members he could sign -- combined -- for less than what Devers will get next year?

 

When the Red Sox become ensconced in last place in '23, don't be surprised if more prospects are promoted to the upper levels and even Boston (especially after making room on the 40, around the trade deadline). Bloom and his men will want to see who looks like candidates to lock up longterm at reasonable rates... plus, Fenway will need a jolt of hope for the future -- if Bloom and his brethren want to have a future there.

[Bellhorn04]

His office apparently thinks Yoshida, Story and Whitlock will be part of that core going forward.

 

But can't you just see Bloom salivating on how many other core members he could sign -- combined -- for less than what Devers will get next year?

 

When the Red Sox become ensconced in last place in '23, don't be surprised if more prospects are promoted to the upper levels and even Boston (especially after making room on the 40, around the trade deadline). Bloom and his men will want to see who looks like candidates to lock up longterm at reasonable rates... plus, Fenway will need a jolt of hope for the future -- if Bloom and his brethren want to have a future there.

 

Yes, and I have been thinking about scenarios in which the Sox finish last again but Bloom keeps his job because of all the hopeful signs from the kids...

[notin]

First of all, it doesn't matter how many GM's ago, it was the same owners.

 

And if Devers is gone, that will make 4 homegrown stars gone in their prime in the space of a decade.

 

Not enough for ya to see a pattern?

 

Not at all.

 

Lester and Bogaerts received low offers. Did Betts? Did Devers?

 

You’re already pushing Devers out the door. Can he at least get a lowball offer first?

[notin]

Yes, and I have been thinking about scenarios in which the Sox finish last again but Bloom keeps his job because of all the hopeful signs from the kids...

 

You don’t need to think about them. They exist. We don’t even know what Henry’s priorities are. If he wants a winner, Bloom is in trouble (unless this team wins). If he wants to set up an organization and run it similar to Atlanta or Houston, then maybe not.

 

Now Henry can also change his mind about what he wants at any time…

[notin]

Kluber is kind of a special case given his age and recent injury history and the apparent lack of competition from other teams.

 

I don't think it means they'll never give out another big contract.

 

I do think Bloom's "bridge to the kids" strategy is becoming clear. Hopefully it all falls into place!

 

Kluber and Jansen both make sense.

 

They’re good enough to contribute, but if you’re out of it by August, both deals are easily movable…

[Old Red]

Not at all.

 

Lester and Bogaerts received low offers. Did Betts? Did Devers?

 

You’re already pushing Devers out the door. Can he at least get a lowball offer first?

 

With Betts they were always a day late, and a dollar short throughout the negotiations, and Yes Raffy was already given a lowball last offseason, but just not as bad as Bogey. The only one who has pushed Raffy out the door is JH, and Bloom. By not locking Raffy up last offseason to sign him now would probably be for double the price, and I can’t see JH doing that. Once again a day late, and a dollar short.

[notin]

With Betts they were always a day late, and a dollar short throughout the negotiations, and Yes Raffy was already given a lowball last offseason, but just not as bad as Bogey. The only one who has pushed Raffy out the door is JH, and Bloom. By not locking Raffy up last offseason to sign him now would probably be for double the price, and I can’t see JH doing that. Once again a day late, and a dollar short.

 

They reportedly offered Betts $300mill in 2019 with a $30mill AAV. At the time, there were only a handful of $300mill contracts. Betts wanted $400mill as his asking price. At that point, it looks like Dombrowski stopped negotiating and switched over to extending other players.

 

That’s not being a day late and a dollar short. Betts wanted a historic contract. Some stories had him wanting out of Boston, or at least definitely trying free agency. It’s nothing like Lester and Bogaerts, and lumping them together is revising history…

[notin]

With Betts they were always a day late, and a dollar short throughout the negotiations, and Yes Raffy was already given a lowball last offseason, but just not as bad as Bogey. The only one who has pushed Raffy out the door is JH, and Bloom. By not locking Raffy up last offseason to sign him now would probably be for double the price, and I can’t see JH doing that. Once again a day late, and a dollar short.

 

And Devers was reportedly offered $200mill/10. If that’s a lowball offer, someone should have told Austin Riley’s agent…

[Bellhorn04]

They reportedly offered Betts $300mill in 2019 with a $30mill AAV. At the time, there were only a handful of $300mill contracts. Betts wanted $400mill as his asking price. At that point, it looks like Dombrowski stopped negotiating and switched over to extending other players.

 

We all know Dave would have offered more if Henry approved it.

[Bellhorn04]

And Devers was reportedly offered $200mill/10. If that’s a lowball offer, someone should have told Austin Riley’s agent…

 

Wasn't Riley further from free agency?

[Old Red]

And Devers was reportedly offered $200mill/10. If that’s a lowball offer, someone should have told Austin Riley’s agent…

 

The way the contracts have skyrocketed that is ancient history now. Just like what Bogey may have signed for last offseason, and what he signed for this offseason.

[moonslav59]

Kluber is kind of a special case given his age and recent injury history and the apparent lack of competition from other teams.

 

I don't think it means they'll never give out another big contract.

 

I do think Bloom's "bridge to the kids" strategy is becoming clear. Hopefully it all falls into place!

 

I also don't think they do an about face like they did after the Ben era. I think JH feels there needs to be a happy medium, but it has to start with rebuilding the farm and roster depth. People can criticize that plan all they want, but it seems like the most logical plan, although patience is not something easily sold to fans paying the highest ticket prices around, so instead they try to throw enough bones our way to try to keep us happy z(some might say not try hard enough) or fool us, whatever your perspective is.

[Old Red]

They reportedly offered Betts $300mill in 2019 with a $30mill AAV. At the time, there were only a handful of $300mill contracts. Betts wanted $400mill as his asking price. At that point, it looks like Dombrowski stopped negotiating and switched over to extending other players.

 

That’s not being a day late and a dollar short. Betts wanted a historic contract. Some stories had him wanting out of Boston, or at least definitely trying free agency. It’s nothing like Lester and Bogaerts, and lumping them together is revising history…

 

When they offered Betts $200M the price had already gone up to $300M, and when the Red Sox offered $300M the price had already gone up to $400M. A day late, and a dollar short.

[Nick]

Kluber is kind of a special case given his age and recent injury history and the apparent lack of competition from other teams.

 

I don't think it means they'll never give out another big contract.

 

I do think Bloom's "bridge to the kids" strategy is becoming clear. Hopefully it all falls into place!

 

That's what I've been trying to say but you said it well.

 

I'm not sure there's much difference between Kluber and Eovaldi health wise. I would think Kluber's chance of pitching 200 innings is little better than Eovaldi's. I don't have the figures in front of me.

 

Bigger issue for me is that anymore the team takes all the risks. Kluber has chance to earn $28M over two years if he meets all of his incentives.

 

And it's not based on K's, ERA's, or won loss record. It's based strictly on games started and innings pitched. If he gets hurt (think Sale), the team is on the hook for $10M. So if Kluber gets hurt during spring training, the Sox still owes him $10M for doing NOTHING.

I believe that's reasonable.

 

I like the contract. That and identifying future 'core member' such as Bello and Casas early and buy out at least 2 years of their free

agency. They did that with Whitlock.

 

Say you give Bello a 8 year deal for $80M starting 2024. That's the type of risks I would take if I'm John Henry.

 

I'll say it. Players are getting greedy. Many contracts are one sided. Owners have no protection in case of injuries. Incentives based on games played, innings pitched or plate appearance should be utilized more often.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

That's what I've been trying to say but you said it well.

 

I'm not sure there's much difference between Kluber and Eovaldi health wise. I would think Kluber's chance of pitching 200 innings is little better than Eovaldi's. I don't have the figures in front of me.

 

Bigger issue for me is that anymore the team takes all the risks. Kluber has chance to earn $28M over two years if he meets all of his incentives.

And it's not based on K's, ERA's, or won loss record. It's based on games started and innings pitched. If he gets hurt (think Sale), the team is

on the hook for $10M. So if Kluber gets hurt during spring training, the Sox still owes him $10M for doing NOTHING.

 

I like the contract. That and identifying future 'core member' such as Bello and Casas early and tie them down for at least 2 years of their free

agency. They did that with Witlock.

 

I'll say it. Players are getting greedy.

 

I'm fine with the Kluber signing and I was hoping we'd sign him as much as I was hoping for Eovaldi.

 

I like the contract terms too. Good job by Bloom.

[notin]

When they offered Betts $200M the price had already gone up to $300M, and when the Red Sox offered $300M the price had already gone up to $400M. A day late, and a dollar short.

 

Now you’re making up a story.

 

Reportedly Betts almost took the $200mill offer, but his mother told him not to make that decision if he wasn’t sure.

Edited December 30, 2022 by notin

[notin]

I also don't think they do an about face like they did after the Ben era. I think JH feels there needs to be a happy medium, but it has to start with rebuilding the farm and roster depth. People can criticize that plan all they want, but it seems like the most logical plan, although patience is not something easily sold to fans paying the highest ticket prices around, so instead they try to throw enough bones our way to try to keep us happy z(some might say not try hard enough) or fool us, whatever your perspective is.

 

If Henry changes his mind, he has not learned the quickest fix involves spending lots and lots of money. If he’s not on board with doing that, he’s more likely to see what happens…