A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

But 2016 Porcello was a fluke, so it's a meaningless hypothetical.

 

Career low BB rate and BABIP.

[moonslav59]

But 2016 Porcello was a fluke, so it's a meaningless hypothetical.

 

It did make a difference to Ben, luck or not, that both Porcello and HRam had much better years in 2016 than 2015. Another "fluke" was leon leading the Sox in catcher PAs in 2016 and putting up an .845 OPS.

 

Meaningless, maybe, but that is the nature of hypotheticals and scenarios.

[moonslav59]

Career low BB rate and BABIP.

 

The low BB was not really luck.

 

He also had his lowest K/9 rate in that 4 year stretch.

 

He had one of his lowest GB%'s and LD%'s, too.

[mvp 78]

The low BB was not really luck.

 

He also had his lowest K/9 rate in that 4 year stretch.

 

He had one of his lowest GB%'s and LD%'s, too.

 

A fluke season isn't always due to luck. Why was he never able to replicate the low BB rate?

[moonslav59]

A fluke season isn't always due to luck. Why was he never able to replicate the low BB rate?

 

Because it was an outlier season, much like Nate's 2021 season was.

 

I'm not doubting it being an outlier.

 

Sometimes, I think you and others site BAbip as a way to show much of what happened involved luck, when a good chunk of BAbip massive changes can be attributed to a big change in the defense behind a pitcher, or the fact that the pitcher, somehow greatly lowered the LD% or hard hit%, and "luck" played a much smaller role that implied or thought.

 

Outliers happen, and maybe it's not all due to extreme good luck. Players often find a groove that just happens to last longer than any other time in their careers.

 

In Porcello's case, take away 2-3 of his worst starts in 2024, and he'd have similar numbers to 2016. is it really that much of a fluke to just have 3 less bad starts in any given season?

 

He had a 3.48 ERA and 3.28 FIP in his first 16 starts to 2018, which is not too far away from 3.15/3.40 in his 2016 season.

[mvp 78]

Per Chris Cotillo's article today (take with grain of salt):

 

The Red Sox will still like to add another starting pitcher before Opening Day, according to industry sources. “What we’re looking for is upside and also consistency and leadership that we can provide for the group,” Bloom said at the Winter Meetings.

 

How they will do that is unclear. The free agent market has been picked over with only a couple of veteran arms still available. The top two options, Michael Wacha and Corey Kluber, are both guys the Red Sox have expressed interest in this winter. Kluber, according to a source, is talking to multiple teams and expects to have a new home within a week. Beyond that, Johnny Cueto, Dylan Bundy, Zack Greinke, Wade Miley and Chris Archer are among the well-known names on a less-than-desirable free agent market.

 

Bundy's only skill is not walking guys. Greinke is done. Archer has sucked for years. Miley can't break a pane of glass anymore. Cotillo then goes on to suggest that maybe they end up going for a trade.

 

Up-the-middle add a priority

 

The belief is that the Red Sox currently have two top priorities — adding to their rotation and improving their up-the-middle mix. The latter mission is a bit less defined due to the composition of the club’s current roster. But Boston definitely wants a more defined alignment at second base, shortstop and center field on Opening Day than it has now. Kiké Hernández and Trevor Story will both factor in significantly up the middle along with whoever else is brought in. The versatility of both players allows the Red Sox to have options, such as (in no particular order):

 

Option A: Story plays shortstop, Hernández plays center field and Boston adds a a full-time second baseman, replacing Christian Arroyo

 

Option B: Story remains at second base, Hernández stays in center field and Boston adds a full-time shortstop

 

Option C: Story or Hernández takes over at shortstop, with the other moving to second base as Boston adds a full-time center fielder

 

Option D: Boston adds one or two players — who are likely versatile — to complement the mix it has in place

 

Jean Segura is the top available free agent second baseman and can’t be ruled out. If the Sox want to add an outfielder, Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds is a logical target after requesting a trade. Versatile guys like old friend José Iglesias and Miami’s Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas would fit as well. Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus, Josh Harrison and Cesar Hernández are still free agents.

 

Reynolds is too expensive. Wendle is an underwhelming but professional option. Rojas is fine for short term solution at SS. Profar is apparently LF only profile if you look at his metrics. Andrus or Hernandez would be ok. Harrison doesn't seem like a Bloom guy.

 

At this point, expect the Red Sox to add a veteran depth option, likely on a minor league deal (Roberto Perez, Jorge Alfaro and Robinson Chirinos are available, as are old friends Sandy León and Kevin Plawecki). But the industry consensus is that the Red Sox are not willing to add somebody just to add somebody.

 

They already have AAA catching covered, but if they want to bring 4 more guys on MiLB contracts I don't care.

[moonslav59]

Per Chris Cotillo's article today (take with grain of salt):

 

The Red Sox will still like to add another starting pitcher before Opening Day, according to industry sources. “What we’re looking for is upside and also consistency and leadership that we can provide for the group,” Bloom said at the Winter Meetings.

 

How they will do that is unclear. The free agent market has been picked over with only a couple of veteran arms still available. The top two options, Michael Wacha and Corey Kluber, are both guys the Red Sox have expressed interest in this winter. Kluber, according to a source, is talking to multiple teams and expects to have a new home within a week. Beyond that, Johnny Cueto, Dylan Bundy, Zack Greinke, Wade Miley and Chris Archer are among the well-known names on a less-than-desirable free agent market.

 

Bundy's only skill is not walking guys. Greinke is done. Archer has sucked for years. Miley can't break a pane of glass anymore. Cotillo then goes on to suggest that maybe they end up going for a trade.

 

Up-the-middle add a priority

 

The belief is that the Red Sox currently have two top priorities — adding to their rotation and improving their up-the-middle mix. The latter mission is a bit less defined due to the composition of the club’s current roster. But Boston definitely wants a more defined alignment at second base, shortstop and center field on Opening Day than it has now. Kiké Hernández and Trevor Story will both factor in significantly up the middle along with whoever else is brought in. The versatility of both players allows the Red Sox to have options, such as (in no particular order):

 

Option A: Story plays shortstop, Hernández plays center field and Boston adds a a full-time second baseman, replacing Christian Arroyo

 

Option B: Story remains at second base, Hernández stays in center field and Boston adds a full-time shortstop

 

Option C: Story or Hernández takes over at shortstop, with the other moving to second base as Boston adds a full-time center fielder

 

Option D: Boston adds one or two players — who are likely versatile — to complement the mix it has in place

 

Jean Segura is the top available free agent second baseman and can’t be ruled out. If the Sox want to add an outfielder, Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds is a logical target after requesting a trade. Versatile guys like old friend José Iglesias and Miami’s Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas would fit as well. Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus, Josh Harrison and Cesar Hernández are still free agents.

 

Reynolds is too expensive. Wendle is an underwhelming but professional option. Rojas is fine for short term solution at SS. Profar is apparently LF only profile if you look at his metrics. Andrus or Hernandez would be ok. Harrison doesn't seem like a Bloom guy.

 

At this point, expect the Red Sox to add a veteran depth option, likely on a minor league deal (Roberto Perez, Jorge Alfaro and Robinson Chirinos are available, as are old friends Sandy León and Kevin Plawecki). But the industry consensus is that the Red Sox are not willing to add somebody just to add somebody.

 

They already have AAA catching covered, but if they want to bring 4 more guys on MiLB contracts I don't care.

 

Pretty much sums it up.

 

I like MRojas as our 1 year bridge to Mayer.

 

Add Kluber and that might be enough.

 

I doubt we add a catcher.

 

BTW, the Braves just extended Murphy.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted and both sides have majority approval by contributors to the site in these two trades:

 

Chris Murphy for Jorge Mateo

 

Chris Murphy for Michael A Taylor

 

If we do both trades quickly enough, maybe we can pull it off and get Mateo and Taylor.

[notin]

BTV accepted and both sides have majority approval by contributors to the site in these two trades:

 

Chris Murphy for Jorge Mateo

 

Chris Murphy for Michael A Taylor

 

If we do both trades quickly enough, maybe we can pull it off and get Mateo and Taylor.

 

Or maybe find another Chris Murphy. It’s a common enough name…

[moonslav59]

Or maybe find another Chris Murphy. It’s a common enough name…

 

We have enough players valued between 2.8 and 3.5.

[moonslav59]

BTV and SSs

 

Value

9.6 A Rosario (1 yr)

5.9 M Rojas (1 yr)

3.2 J Mateo (3 yrs)

 

Sox

8.7 Romero

8.0 Yorke

6.7 Dugo

6.5 Anthony & Coffey

5.9 Duran

5.6 Lugo & Walter

5.0 Jordan & Paulino

3.7 Mata & Murphy

2.8 Seabold & McDonough

2.6 Wink & Bonaci

2.4 Hamilton & Taylor

2.1 Jimenez & Abreu

[Bellhorn04]

Or maybe find another Chris Murphy. It’s a common enough name…

 

He's also in the band Sloan, who are from here in Halifax.

[a700hitter]

Jensen 35 yrs old

Turner 38 years old

Kluber 37 years old

 

Is this a plan for sustainable success?

[moonslav59]

Jensen 35 yrs old

Turner 38 years old

Kluber 37 years old

 

Is this a plan for sustainable success?

 

None are for longer than 2 years, so they can be viewed as bridges to some younger players or bridges to the next bridges.

 

Some may end up being traded for prospects at the deadline, if we end up doing as poorly as many seem to think we will do.

[moonslav59]

10 people convicted of trying to kill Big Papi.

 

This was that incident back in 2019.

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/10-convicted-2019-david-ortiz-attempted-killing_n_63acc85ee4b0fe267ca65937

[moonslav59]

Assuming no more additions, despite having about $28M to spend and be under the tax line, here might be our opening day 26 man roster:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Kike CF

7. L Verdugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B

9. L McGuire C

Bench:

R Wong C

R Refsnyder OF

L E Valdez 2B

L Duran LF or R Dalbec 1B/3B

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Kluber

SP3 Whitlock

SP4 Bello

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Paxton

 

RP1 Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Houck

RP4 Schreiber

RP5 Barnes

RP6 Joely

RP7 Mills

RP8 Crawford or Brasier

 

Farm Depth/ ML ready

C R Hernandez (not on 40)

1B Crook (not on 40)

2B Hamilton

SS Goodrum (not on 40)

3B Koss (not on 40)

LF Duran

CF Rafaela (SS)

RF Abreu

DH Grandberg (not on 40)

P Taylor, Mata, Crawford, Walter, Winckowski, Murphy, Seabold, Kelly, German, Ort, DHern

(not on 40) Santos, Feltman, Shugart, Thompson, Drohan, Fernandez

 

[notin]

Jensen 35 yrs old

Turner 38 years old

Kluber 37 years old

 

Is this a plan for sustainable success?

 

 

No, that’s a plan for filling gaps for one year. You can’t build sustainable success through free agency anymore…

[Bellhorn04]

No, that’s a plan for filling gaps for one year. You can’t build sustainable success through free agency anymore…

 

You think something has changed?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No, that’s a plan for filling gaps for one year. You can’t build sustainable success through free agency anymore…

 

... why root for Hall of Famers for the next dozen years, when we can have revolving casts of past-primetimers instead?

[notin]

You think something has changed?

 

Yes. More teams lock up their young stars or trade them to someone else who will. Not to mention the top end contract lengths and cash.

 

You still see the occasional 27-28yo free agent, but it’s not as common. And now when you do see one, you can’t sign them for 6-7 years anymore.

[notin]

... why root for Hall of Famers for the next dozen years, when we can have revolving casts of past-primetimers instead?

 

You do realize those type of moves are the one thing that have changed…

[mvp 78]

Jensen 35 yrs old

Turner 38 years old

Kluber 37 years old

 

Is this a plan for sustainable success?

 

They are SHORT TERM contracts to get us to the next generation of Red Sox players. If they gave Jansen a 5 year deal, it would be a problem. There is no issue year. The plan is to not tie the team down financially long term and begin to offer extensions to their younger players and obtain other young players via trades for players from their solid farm system. At least I hope that's the plan.

[mvp 78]

No, that’s a plan for filling gaps for one year. You can’t build sustainable success through free agency anymore…

 

Not with what the contracts were this year.

[Hugh2]

They are SHORT TERM contracts to get us to the next generation of Red Sox players. If they gave Jansen a 5 year deal, it would be a problem. There is no issue year. The plan is to not tie the team down financially long term and begin to offer extensions to their younger players and obtain other young players via trades for players from their solid farm system. At least I hope that's the plan.

 

Yeah, it's two years, so that's whatever. I think the lack of a big blockbuster move doesn't take away from good less appealing moves the Sox have made. They did well in the bullpen.

[mvp 78]

... why root for Hall of Famers for the next dozen years, when we can have revolving casts of past-primetimers instead?

 

Sox should have locked up two of Betts, Bogaerts and Devers. They didn't. Now they probably will all be out the door. It's pretty sad and dumb. Ownership and front office is at fault here for sure. It's an embarrassment.

[Hugh2]

Sox should have locked up two of Betts, Bogaerts and Devers. They didn't. Now they probably will all be out the door. It's pretty sad and dumb. Ownership and front office is at fault here for sure. It's an embarrassment.

 

I think it's fair to put JBJ in there.

[mvp 78]

I think it's fair to put JBJ in there.

 

JBJ and Beni are in a tier below.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ and Beni are in a tier below.

 

Bigly.

[Hugh2]

JBJ and Beni are in a tier below.

 

In hindsight? Yes. But at one point in time JBJ looked like a 4 tool player with GG defense in CF and plus .850 OPS in your lineup. Benintendi was the #1 prospect in all of baseball and quickly came up and became an everyday staple in the lineup.

 

That’s the issue with extending guys (which I’m for). To save money, you have to get them while they’re young and their career has more uncertainty to it. we almost have to put ourselves in a time machine for this experiment and pretend we don’t know the rest of their careers. One could be forgiven for thinking those guys were going to have just as good careers

[mvp 78]

In hindsight? Yes. But at one point in time JBJ looked like a 4 tool player with GG defense in CF and plus .850 OPS in your lineup. Benintendi was the #1 prospect in all of baseball and quickly came up and became an everyday staple in the lineup.

 

That’s the issue with extending guys (which I’m for). To save money, you have to get them while they’re young and their career has more uncertainty to it. we almost have to put ourselves in a time machine for this experiment and pretend we don’t know the rest of their careers. One could be forgiven for thinking those guys were going to have just as good careers

 

If they had extended Benintendi it would have probably been at pretty reasonable dollars. As long as the prospect doesn't completely bust, it's generally worth the risk. Beni would have been fine to extend.

 

With JBJ, we had already seen a VERY volatile bat. Even though he had a great 2016, he was a rollercoaster afterwards (and it wasn't a much better picture before). The 850 OPS for JBJ occurred exactly NEVER. He never had a season where he OPS'd 840.